In general, it would be wise to be cautious regarding all medical research, even those being conducted under Western standards of research.
I have been following John Ioannidis's, MD, research and it has some very dire implications [but not hopeless] for all medical research:
http://www.macleans.ca/society/life/whe ... ioannidis/When science isn’t science-based: In class with Dr. John IoannidisLessons from one of the world’s most influential scientists
Julia Belluz
January 17, 2014
Last week at the Harvard School of Public Health, Dr. John Ioannidis – a Stanford professor and Science-ish hero – told a room filled with Harvard doctors (and one journalist) that they can’t trust most of the research findings science has to offer. “In science, we are very eager to make big stories, big claims,” he opened his lecture, with a mischievous grin. “The question is: are those claims accurate?”
According to Ioannidis, the answer – at least most of the time – is an unequivocal ‘no.’
A compact man in his 40s with stooped shoulders and thinning brown hair, Ioannidis has made a career researching research – or “meta-research” – examining not just single studies but many studies across fields as diverse as disease prevention, neuroscience and genomics. His boyish nerdiness and good nature belie the thorn in the side of science that he has become. For the last 20 years, he has amassed an internationally regarded body of research about all the ways science isn’t actually science-based. For this work, he’s considered “one of the most influential scientists alive.”
At a time when scientific knowledge is being produced at an unprecedented rate and global spending on life sciences research alone has topped $240 billion US, the need for people like Ioannidis – who can take a step back and examine trends, gaps, biases, waste and flaws – becomes more urgent than ever. If science continually fails at self-correction, Ioannidis is the closest thing this field has to a one-man self-correction machine.
In the Harvard class, he gave students an overview of his work and all the ways research goes off the rails. Here are some highlights:
1) Why every diet supposedly causes cancer:
In one of his studies – appropriately titled “Is everything we eat associated with cancer?” – Ioannidis and a co-author randomly selected 50 ingredients from recipes in the The Boston Cooking-School Cook Book. They then looked at whether those ingredients were associated with an increased or decreased risk of cancer. At least one study was identified for 40 of the ingredients – from bacon and bread to sherry and sugar – and most of the claims made in the studies contradicted each other or were based on weak evidence. “Most of the ingredients had results on both sides, positive and negative,” he said, making the point that many studies about cancer and nutrition are poorly designed. There were studies to support just about every claim on the popular topic – and many of them are too good to be true. “With one more serving of tomatoes,” he told his class with a smirk, “half the burden of cancer in the world would go away.”
2) Why most published research findings are false:
For Ioannidis, the key reason for this exaggeration and misrepresentation in research can be summed up in one word: bias. “This can be conscious, subconscious, or unconscious,” he said of these deviations from the truth – beyond chance or error – that pervert science. His favourite offender is ‘publication bias,’ which gives a falsely exaggerated impression of the science on a subject because not all studies that get conducted get published and the ones that do tend to have extreme results. It’s like doing a bunch of tests to find out whether your new vacuum works, and even though most tests fail, only reporting the one time the vacuum turned on.
Ioannidis is well known for taking on the entire research enterprise in an essay entitled ‘Why Most Published Research Findings are False.’ In the paper, he described how a combination of uncertainty (no scientific finding is ever final) and publication bias creates a maelstrom of spurious findings that don’t hold up to scrutiny over the long-term.
3) Why you need to be cautious about early studies with big claims:
For another paper on the twists and turns in research, Ioannidis examined the reliability of findings in highly-cited original studies, focusing in particular on those which had been contradicted by later, more rigorous research. These influential studies were not about cold and abstract issues; many focused on the very questions that we all grapple with every day, such as whether to take supplements or not, and whether common medications – like aspirin for blood pressure – really work.
Here, he concluded, “Contradicted and potentially exaggerated findings are not uncommon in the most visible and most influential original clinical research.” In other words, splashy early studies with big effects were often found to be exaggerated or completely wrong. He also found that the original research continued to be cited, sometimes with complete silence on the more recent, contradictory evidence. For example, an early observational study revealed a supposed link between vitamin A supplementation and breast cancer, only to be overturned by a later, much higher-quality randomized controlled trial – yet the debunked observational study remained more highly cited and influential.
In a study, Ioannidis looked at six highly-cited journals between 1979 and 1983, combing for papers in which researchers claimed their basic scientific findings were going to lead to useful treatments. Out of 25,190 studies he identified, 101 made such claims. Yet, the vast majority of these studies were never followed up with randomized controlled trials to test those claims. Of the 27 that did, only five resulted in technologies that were licensed for clinical use in 2003 and only one has been widely used for the purposes for which it was licensed. This means the chances that someone promising a breakthrough and actually delivering one are about as slim as the chances of winning the lottery.
4) How to make science less science-ish:
At the end of the course, Ioannidis shared a few ideas about how to improve the status quo in science. He suggested first that researchers need to learn to live with small effects in their studies. “Having worked in different fields, most of the effects that are of interest are small,” he said. Most effects of a big magnitude – like the link between smoking and lung cancer – have already been recognized. To reduce the signal-to-noise ratio, he said, scientists need to design their studies accounting for the fact that the effect sizes they are chasing may be tiny.
He also suggested that even if studies aren’t going to be replicated, researchers should at least try repeating their findings by getting an independent investigator to vet their raw data sets. Other fixes for science, which Ioannidis outlined in a new Lancet series on reducing inefficiency in research, include revamping the reward system for research and making data publicly available.
5) Why science, if flawed, is still the best alternative:
At the end of his week-long visit to Harvard, Science-ish asked Ioannidis whether he ever tired of poking holes in science, whether all his work has caused him to lose faith in the scientific process. With wide eyes, he exclaimed, “I remain as enthusiastic about science as ever!” He went on to describe all the benefits of science, why it is “the best thing that can happen to humans”: the value of rational thinking, of evidence over ideology, religious belief and dogma. “We have effective treatments and interventions and useful tests we can apply. We have both theoretical and empirical evidence that science is beneficial to humans and it’s a wonderful construct of thinking. . . Science is beautiful because it’s falsifiable.”
“There’s plenty of room to apply the very same (scientific) tools to the way science is done,” he added. “The question is: can we get there faster and more efficiently without wasting effort?”
Science-ish is a joint project of Maclean’s, the Medical Post and the McMaster Health Forum. Julia Belluz is senior editor at the Medical Post. She is currently on a Knight Science Journalism Fellowship at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Reach her at
[email protected] or on Twitter @juliaoftoronto
http://www.mayoclinicproceedings.org/ar ... 25-6196(13)00403-5/abstract
How Many Contemporary Medical Practices Are Worse Than Doing Nothing or Doing Less?John P.A. Ioannidis, MD, DScemail
Stanford Prevention Research Center, Department of Medicine, Department of Health Research and Policy, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA
Department of Statistics, Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences, Stanford, CA
How many contemporary medical practices are not any better than or are worse than doing nothing or doing something else that is simpler or less expensive? This is an important question, given the negative repercussions for patients and the health care system of continuing to endorse futile, inefficient, expensive, or harmful interventions, tests, or management strategies. In this issue of Mayo Clinic Proceedings, Prasad et al1
describe the frequency and spectrum of medical reversals determined from a review of all the articles published over a decade (2001-2010) in New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM). Their work extends a previous effort2
that had focused on data from a single year and had suggested that almost half of the established medical practices that are tested are found to be no better than a less expensive, simpler, or easier therapy or approach. The results from the current larger sample of articles1
are consistent with the earlier estimates: 27% of the original articles relevant to medical practices published in NEJM over this decade pertained to testing established practices. Among them, reversal and reaffirmation studies were approximately equally common (40.2% vs 38%). About two-thirds of the medical reversals were recommended on the basis of randomized trials. Even though no effort was made to evaluate systematically all evidence on the same topic (eg, meta-analyses including all studies published before and after the specific NEJM articles), the proportion of medical reversals seems alarmingly high. At a minimum, it poses major questions about the validity and clinical utility of a sizeable portion of everyday medical care.
Are these figures representative of the medical literature and evidence base at large? The sample assembled by Prasad et al is highly impressive, but it accounts for less than 1% of all randomized trials published in the same decade (an estimated >10,000 per year) and an even more infinitesimal portion of other types of study designs. If one could extrapolate from this sample by proportion, perhaps there have been several tens of thousands of medical reversal studies across all 23 million articles entered to date in PubMed. One has to be cautious with extrapolations, however. New England Journal of Medicine is clearly different from other journals in many ways besides having the highest impact factor among the list of 155 general and internal medicine journals.3
It is widely read, and it has high visibility and impact both on the mass media and on medical practitioners. In this regard, the collection of 146 medical reversals reviewed by Prasad et al is a compendium of widely known, visible examples, and thus it can make excellent reading for medical practitioners and researchers, teachers, and trainees. At the same time, this characteristic is also a disadvantage: the articles published by NEJM are a highly selected sample, probably susceptible to publication and selective outcome reporting bias. There is substantial empirical evidence that the effect sizes of randomized trials published in NEJM, Lancet, or JAMA (the top 3 general and internal medicine journals in terms of impact factor3
) are markedly inflated, in particular for small trials4; conversely, the effect sizes for large trials are similar to those seen in large trials on the same topic in other journals.4
The interpretation of the results in NEJM is also likely to be more exaggerated compared with other journals because authors may feel pressured to claim that the results are impressive in order to get their work published in such a competitive venue.5
Finally, when the quantitative data on effect sizes are examined, studies published in NEJM and other major journals have higher informativity (information gain or change in entropy),6
ie, their results do change previous evidence more than the change incurred by the results of studies published elsewhere.
On the basis of these considerations, the frequency of medical reversals published in NEJM may be somewhat higher than what might be seen in publications in other journals. However, there are also some other counterbalancing forces that could cause bias in the opposite direction. For example, evaluations published in NEJM are likely to focus on commonly used, established medical practices. Such commonly used practices are likely to have had at least some previous evidence generated in the past supporting their use. Conversely, established interventions that are more narrowly applied and specialized (eg, those for which randomized trials might be published in small-circulation, highly specialized journals) may have been originally endorsed with even more sparse and worse-quality evidence, or even no evidence at all.
Other empirical approaches may also offer some insight about how commonly useless or even harmful treatments are endorsed. The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews has assembled considerable current medical evidence from clinical trials on diverse interventions. An empirical evaluation of Cochrane reviews in 2004 showed that most (47.8%) concluded that there is insufficient evidence to endorse the examined interventions.7
A repeated evaluation in 2011 showed that this trend has not changed, with the percentage of insufficient evidence remaining as high as 45%.8
Often, non-Cochrane reviews tend to have more positive conclusions about the assessed interventions, but it is unclear whether this finding reflects genuine superiority of the assessed interventions or bias in the interpretation of the results.9
Although a substantial proportion of interventions are clearly harmful or inferior to others, many are still being used because of reluctance or resistance to abandoning them.10
Some are even widely used despite the poor evidence, as Prasad et al1
eagerly highlight with several examples. Moreover, different medical specialties may vary in their lack of evidence—eg, primary care, surgery, and dermatology interventions more frequently lack evidence to support their use compared with internal medicine interventions.11
Most new interventions that are successfully introduced into medical care have small effects that translate to modest, incremental benefits.12
Empirical evaluations have suggested that well-validated large benefits for measurable outcomes such as mortality are uncommon in medicine.13
Under these circumstances, even subtle changes in the composition and spectrum of the treated population over time, emergence of previously unrecognized toxicities, or a relatively disadvantageous cost can easily tip the evidence balance against the use of these interventions. Moreover, the introduction of interventions with limited or no evidence of benefit continues at fast pace even in specialties that have a strong tradition of evidence-based methods. For example, in almost half (48%) of the recommendations in major cardiology guidelines, the level of evidence is grade C, ie, limited evidence and expert opinion have a highly influential presence.14
Once we divert beyond traditional treatments (eg, drugs or devices) to diagnostic tools, prognostic markers, health systems, and other health care measures, randomized trials are a rarity.15
For example, it has been estimated that, on average, there are only 37 publications per year of randomized trials assessing the effectiveness of diagnostic tests.15
Some modern technologies (eg, “omics”) promise to introduce new tools into medical management at such a high pace that many investigators are wary of even thinking about the possibility of randomized testing. Despite better laboratory science, fascinating technology, and theoretically mature designs after 65 years of randomized trials, ineffective, harmful, expensive medical practices are being introduced more frequently now than at any other time in the history of medicine. Under the current mode of evidence collection, most of these new practices may never be challenged.
The data collected by Prasad et al1
offer some hints about how this dreadful scenario might be aborted. The 146 medical reversals that they have assembled are, in a sense, examples of success stories that can inspire the astute clinician and clinical investigator to challenge the status quo and realize that doing less is more.16
It is not with irony that I call these disasters “success stories.” If we can learn from them, these seemingly disappointing results may be extremely helpful in curtailing harms to patients and cost to the health care system. Although it is important to promote effective practices (“positive success stories”), it is also important to promote and disseminate knowledge about ineffective practices that should be reversed and abandoned. Also, research is needed to find the most efficient ways of applying the knowledge learned from these “negative” studies. Does it suffice to compile lists of practices that should be abandoned?10 What types of educational approaches and reinforcement could enhance their abandonment? What are the obstacles (commercial, professional, system inertia, or other) that hinder this disimplementation step and how can they be best overcome? Are there some incentives that we can offer to practitioners and health systems to apply this “negative” knowledge toward simplifying and streamlining their practices?
Some of the messaging may require inclusion in guidelines, given the widespread attention that these documents gain, particularly when issued by authoritative individuals or groups, and their capacity to affect clinical practice. Should we require generally higher levels of evidence before practice guidelines are recommended? Moreover, if and when practice guidelines are discredited or overturned by additional information, should notification of practitioners and the public not be undertaken with the same, if not more, vigor as when the practices were first recommended?
Finally, are there incentives and anything else we can do to promote testing of seemingly established practices and identification of more practices that need to be abandoned? Obviously, such an undertaking will require commitment to a rigorous clinical research agenda in a time of restricted budgets. However, it is clear that carefully designed trials on expensive practices may have a very favorable value of information, and they would be excellent investments toward curtailing the irrational cost of ineffective health care.
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