The Russians are coming.

[Steve James]

Mistake, maybe, but I am inclined to assume advanced weapons would require advanced operators, who I don't think would make such glaring mistakes.

Could have only gotten from Russia? What do you base this on? We know for a fact that the rebels looted many UA armed forces arms depots as well as various police stations etc. On top of that there were numerous defections from Kiev's sides.

Well, then if you believe both, then it is certainly possible that the rebels used those advanced weapons. It is more likely than not given that the rebels shot down military fighter jets in the same area.

No prospective economic motive makes this accident more likely to have been committed by the US than by the rebels in control of the area where it happened. Downing a passenger plane over Kiev would have made an even bigger splash if attributed to the rebels --who, btw, simultaneously admit and deny that they have the BUK system. The PM of the Donetsk Republic said they didn't have it in an interview; but, I was obviously listening to a translation.

A mistake is merely the simplest answer. Some don't like it because of the way it makes Russia and the rebels look. I think it's more level-headed to accept the possibility of a mistake than assert that there was a deliberate plan. As I said, there's someone who knows the exact truth. Someone pushed the button, and the Russians are the most likely to know because their intelligence apparatus is right there. If they haven't revealed the culprit, it's because they probably know. If they don't, and the Yanks do, then someone is really incompetent.

Ooops, just on the news, two more Ukrainian jets were shot down a few hours ago http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/two ... story.html

I think this would be a very fine line with very potent and dangerous consequences. I doubt many nations would get support for such actions, but hey, never underestimate human stupidity.

Yes, but as I said, it's the irrational, emotional result of feeling deceived. It's probably too late to preserve any semblance of trust. And it's not because of the loss of life; it's because of what's happened afterward, including the defense. I think if it were accepted as a tragic accident, even if no one were charged, the reaction would be different.

[grzegorz]

Looks like many are calling for the World Cup not to be in Russia.

[grzegorz]

LOL ^^^ That's a fairly accurate summary

Well for the record I'm not relying on any US sources. I'm mostly relying on what the rebels put out on FB at the time of the tragedy. You can delete it but it's still there.

But yes don't trust governments, American or Russian. Think for yourself.

As far as satellite footage, as I told Wind, I could make a photo like that in Photoshop in an hour. Even Powell had satellite photos.

[Azer]

Well, then if you believe both, then it is certainly possible that the rebels used those advanced weapons. It is more likely than not given that the rebels shot down military fighter jets in the same area.

I'm not sure I follow your logic here.

No prospective economic motive makes this accident more likely to have been committed by the US than by the rebels in control of the area where it happened. Downing a passenger plane over Kiev would have made an even bigger splash if attributed to the rebels --who, btw, simultaneously admit and deny that they have the BUK system. The PM of the Donetsk Republic said they didn't have it in an interview; but, I was obviously listening to a translation.

I don't see any motive for this to have been committed by the rebels, only detriment.

Also, don't get me wrong, I don't think the US would have done it directly, but proxy by Kiev Gov forces. However, what I think is quite irrelevant, what we need is actual evidence.

A mistake is merely the simplest answer. Some don't like it because of the way it makes Russia and the rebels look. I think it's more level-headed to accept the possibility of a mistake than assert that there was a deliberate plan. As I said, there's someone who knows the exact truth. Someone pushed the button, and the Russians are the most likely to know because their intelligence apparatus is right there. If they haven't revealed the culprit, it's because they probably know. If they don't, and the Yanks do, then someone is really incompetent.

The Russians are saying it was Kiev and they have provided some evidence to this effect and posed a load of questions to Kiev which have yet been unanswered. Lets see what comes up in the next few days.

Ooops, just on the news, two more Ukrainian jets were shot down a few hours ago http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/two ... story.html

Yep, I saw this earlier. I find it odd that Kiev thinks its ok to carry out actions like this during such a time and with many international staff on the ground. Cant blame the rebels for defending themselves, its either that or a bomb on your head/house/school/etc.

Would be interesting to know what weapons they used.

Yes, but as I said, it's the irrational, emotional result of feeling deceived. It's probably too late to preserve any semblance of trust. And it's not because of the loss of life; it's because of what's happened afterward, including the defense. I think if it were accepted as a tragic accident, even if no one were charged, the reaction would be different.

Perhaps. Lets see.

Looks like many are calling for the World Cup not to be in Russia.

Yeah, I saw that, mostly in UK tabloid press. 2018 is a long time away though.

But yes don't trust governments, American or Russian. Think for yourself.

+1 and I will add any media reports needs to be cross-referenced across several international and divergent sources.


I'm heading out of town today, so I will catch you gents next week, though I may log in here and there if I can get some wifi. Should have plenty more to talk about then, hopefully only good stuff!

[grzegorz]

The investigation could be a long one.

[Steve James]

I'm not sure I follow your logic here.

I wasn't sure about your logic, actually. Either the rebels have weapons capable of downing the plane or they don't. If they do, then it "may" have been a mistake. Then, they might have gotten the weapons from the Russians. But, if they got them from Kiev, neither that nor the need for advanced training changes the question of whether it was a mistake. Iinm, your counter-argument is that it was deliberately done, either by the US or the Ukrainians.

Besides, to your point about the latest downing of Ukrainian jets. I haven't heard of Ukraine downing any rebel jets. Do they have any? But, if the response is that the rebels have a right to protect themselves, then if it's determined that they did shoot down the jet, I think the argument will be the same: i.e., the plane was in the wrong place at the wrong time, and "what do you expect."

[grzegorz]

Interesting the same talking points on Russia today are the same ones on this thread. I imagine it'll be same even if the inspectors say it was the rebels.

But that's neither here or there, being that it's a bad mourning I don't want to joke about it or debate it as was done on the previous page.

The way I see it if we will never know who actually did this because the crime scene has already been compromised.

But FIFA is far enough away to move it to another location if it is found that the Missile came from Russia. Maybe I'm getting old but to me more four years is a blink of an eye.

[Steve James]

Well, imo, unless it was a one-off done by an individual, there are simply too many people who know exactly who did what for it to remain a secret forever. At some point, someone will talk. Now, who or what people will believe is another story.

[grzegorz]

Well, imo, unless it was a one-off done by an individual, there are simply too many people who know exactly who did what for it to remain a secret forever. At some point, someone will talk. Now, who or what people will believe is another story.

My point is the Russians and the rebels, if it was them, will never take responsibility and will discredit anyone or anything that proves otherwise.

Getting Putin to admit he had any responsibility would be like getting Cheney to admit that invading Iraq was a bad idea.

[Steve James]

I hear what you're saying about taking responsibility. My point was that, like other investigations, eventually people will be offered money for information --because no one's interested in protecting the person who fired that shot. That, and the fact that even rebels have consciences, leads me to believe that one day the whole story will come out.

Imo, people understand mistakes. They might not forgive or forget, but knowing it was human error would allow them some form of closure. The more stories and denials, the longer the investigations and recriminations go on, the greater the families' grief.

Btw, this would be a perfect opportunity for someone to fall on his sword.

[grzegorz]

Things are getting heated.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/23/world/eur ... homepage-t

[wiesiek]

shutting off the plane was totally planned by Kremlin .! - follow former Putins advisor .
I heard it today,

[grzegorz]

For the record I do understand and believe that the Russians actually see the US/NATO as a threat. Although I believe it's a mistake and that it has more to do with Ukrainians wanting to join the EU, I don't believe the US is helping the situation with it's rhetoric. The fact is even if it is discovered that the rebels purposely shot the plane the US/NATO is not going to do a single thing, more sanctions are possible but NATO is not looking for war. I actually think the first Bush had the right idea of not getting involved when the former communist countries broke away from communism for fear of a strong response from the Soviets. The US would be better off staying out of the spotlight and allowing the investigation to go for forward besides nothing will change as a result of any of this and I don't think Moscow cares how it looks to the rest of the world and I don't think they even care about sanctions, the politicians only care about how they look to the Russians which is why they will continue to deny any responsibility.

[Steve James]

Imo, it's a mistake to conflate the MH17 disaster with the pre-existing geopolitical and economic issues. Forget US rhetoric; it's been pretty much the same for a while. It was the Europeans (and this leads to an irony) who have been reluctant to amp up their rhetoric or go to extreme lengths about those situations because they needed Russian (and Ukrainian) resources. It's their pipeline, and all other sources are either more expensive or ecologically destructive. The European economy is not particularly strong (whose is?), but neither is Russia's. So, both Europe, Russia and Ukraine were potentially good economic partners. But, that gets back to the beginning of this thread and the reasons given for the rebels' justifications. I'm not gonna argue about that.

MH17 changed the narrative. The Dutch, obviously, have been more vocal in their rhetoric than the US. One Dutch mayor wanted to make Putin's daughter leave Holland. Though, he later retracted his request and apologized. However, the Dutch and the Australians have said they will send investigators to the scene; some will be armed. Imo, that's much more provocative than anything the US has done. But, what it clearly shows is that they are now willing to put their people in harm's way. Yeah, what happens if one of them gets shot? Otoh, if you were in the Dutch service, and they told you of this mission, do you think it'd be hard to find volunteers? As I've said, all it would take was someone to say it was an accident and to treat it as such. A total cease fire could be demanded, international observers, even peace-keepers could be posted, the scene could be completely examined, and no WW3. In a way, it might be good for the sides to know that they mean business. It's MAD, but that's exactly what saved us.

[wiesiek]

Steve , kinda of classic >double mount<:
Putin is pressing EU energetic throat, EU is getting his money balls

while I have quite nice sunday here,
Putin`s "freedom fighters" are wearing Ukrainians army uniforms and shutting
civilians targets in Doniecks right now.
They using tanks with Ukrainians symbols freshly painted on...

EU agree to work together with the sanctions, I heard yesterday,
Real bullshit .
Nuf to stop buying gas and minerals from the Russians
and Putin will call off his dogs at once!