China & North Korea

[Andy_S]

David:

Any links to info on Chinese industry in Sichuan pre invasion of Tibet? What precipitated the invasion at that time in 1950?

FYI, in 1949 Stalin had promised Mao soem 30 or so industrial complexes, most of which were to be built in Manchuria. So when Mao saw MacArthur's boys surging of the 38th parallel in Oct 1950...well.

TIA

[Wuyizidi]

David:

Any links to info on Chinese industry in Sichuan pre invasion of Tibet? What precipitated the invasion at that time in 1950?

FYI, in 1949 Stalin had promised Mao soem 30 or so industrial complexes, most of which were to be built in Manchuria. So when Mao saw MacArthur's boys surging of the 38th parallel in Oct 1950...well.

TIA

During the Japanese invasion the national government moved to Sichuan, because it was a vast mountainous region region with extensive cloud coverage, which made it very hard to invade or bomb. Don't have any info on the Chinese industry pre-1950, but it's pretty well-known that since then, the core of military industries, including nuclear, are located there.

The start of Korean War is a typical story of North Korea, China, and Soviet foreign policy. Prior to going south, Kim told Stalin about it. When Stalin found out Kim hasn't informed Mao, Stalin said "You better clear it with Mao first." But Kim never did. Just like now, the whole thing was a big unpleasant surprise to China. When MacArthur got close to the border, Mao famously stayed up for 3 days and nights contemplating what to do. In the end, he concluded war could not be averted, strategically then it was better to act sooner than later.

A big part of the decision to go to war in a foreign land was Soviet's assurance to provide air cover. But once the war started, Stalin said he could supply China planes, but not pilots (makes sense really). So China has to train pilots right away. In a poor, half-feudal half-colonial peasant nation where >90% of people were illiterate, you can image how difficult that was. On the American side there were thousands of highly trained pilots with extensive fighting experience from WWII. So you can imagine how the air war went. That was the major reason the U.N forces was not forced off Korean peninsula entirely. The Chinese army advanced to south very rapidly, but it didn't have necessary air cover to secure the supply line. It had to stop and fight a more stationary war, hence the stalemate.

The consequences of the Korean War went far beyond Korea: for one thing, Mao was primarily pre-occupied with planning amphibious assault on Taiwan. When the Americans came, and stayed, with its heavy military presence in Asia as the result of Korean War, that plan got shelved indefinitely. In Japan, Americans were planning to thoroughly modernizing it, dismantling the old institutions like the emperor and the keiretsu system. That all got shelved indefinitely too, as the priority became make Japan as strong and stable as fast as possible. And many of the worst Japanese war criminals of WWII got a free pass because they had possessed some knowledge that was deemed useful by the Americans now that Cold War has begun...

Mao broke up friendly relations with Soviets after the war when they 'suggested' to build a true blue water navy and base it in Dalian (all of Russia's major ports freeze over during winter). It didn't take a military genius (which Mao certainly was) to see this was a very bad idea. Then of course Soviets were like "Refusal was not an act of friendship, now all those airplanes, they were "loans". Now pay us back." China endured years of extreme economic hardship paying the Soviets back. After it was all paid back, Mao, who is no genius economist, decided to jump start the economy (and become less reliant on Soviets) by embarking on a totally unrealistic rapid modernization/industrialization program called the "Great Leap Forward". It was an utter failure and millions starved to death. As a result the central politburo forced Mao to relinquishing active management of the country. The party kept this a secrete to all but its highest level members. At this time Stalin died and Kruschev started to rewrite history to dismantle Stalin's legacy. Fearing the same thing was happening to him, Mao ingeniously went outside the party apparatus to talk directly to the people, to encourage them to wage 'Cultural Revolution' at every level of society, even against the party if it is acting in a less than ideologically pure way. One result of this is economically, in those ten years China lost all the gains it had achieved since 1949...

So yes, Glorious Leaders of North Korea screwing things up for major nations of the world..., nothing new here.

[jasonf]

Wuyizidi great post, lots of info in a very clear, compact way.
Do you think China really has any issue with NK as a neighbor, its almost like having a crazy cousin, they make some headaches and be dangerous but they won't hurt you? What longterm resolutions can you see, will NK eventually be restructured, I can't see China ever allowing a US ally on that border?
Thanks

[Wuyizidi]

More or less.

From Chinese perspective, historically it never had issues with Korea until its modern Communist dynasty. But I wonder how the Koreans really feel about that relationship. There's a saying 'a small country has no foreign policy' - a small country can't really go against wishes of its much more powerful neighbor, it can't be self-assertive, just follows whatever its neighbor want. I'm sure nobody likes that. There must be some resentment, the way the smaller western allies feel about U.S.

Although North Koreans are great at playing Russia, China, and U.S against each other to its own benefit, mostly they're a loyal Chinese ally. They know to survive and prosper, they need to go along with someone.

Out of potential allies then:

• Japan: definitely not be trusted, always wanted to annex Korea. Plus because of its lack of natural resources, it always have to depend on a powerful ally that can secure basic resources for its economy.
• Russia: too domineering + too different = too many conflict of interest, and that would definitely make China an enemy.
• U.S: there'd be heavy military occupation, as Korea is front-line battleground in its conflict against China and Russia. If war between these giants ever start again, China and Russia would definitely fight it there first rather in their homelands. Korea would be completely devastated again. Even if the war doesn't break out, it's a very difficult existence, sort of like Japan right now - you're a small country in a big, dense neighborhood with very large powers. But you stand apart from all of them, allying yourself instead with a competing great power half the world away. In Japan's case they had no choice, in the aftermath of WWII, no one in the neighborhood trust it, and American military was not going to leave its soil anyway.

In diplomacy they say the true test of a country's sovereignty is 'monopoly in use of violence within its own territory'. Judging by that criteria, is Japan, South Korea really sovereign? For North Korea then, China is the most natural, problem-free, culturally similar, and hands-off of 'people we had to go along with' if it want to remain sovereign.

As for what will happen to Korea in the long term, most people vastly overestimates degree of knowledge China has on North Korea. My uncle used to work at China's People's Daily (country's biggest newspaper), he had a colleague who was stationed in Korea. In his ten years there he mostly just copied Korean newspaper clippings and send them home. Because when he was there, he could do no independent research, everywhere he went he was escorted by police. He couldn't do his job at all.

Right now there are speculation in China that this looks like another crazy manufactured crisis: NK yanks the chain, everyone overreacts, dramatically escalate the tension, and the youngest son (only recently picked to succeed, really has no standing with NK military) gets to play the hero by resolving it - backing off while getting economic aid in exchange as per usual.

[Andy_S]

SNIP
From Chinese perspective, historically it never had issues with Korea until its modern Communist dynasty
SNIP

Eh?

The various Chinese dynasties have ALWAYS had a massive geo-stragetic interest in - and subsequently made interventions in - the affairs of the peninsula:
Tang allying with Shilla (the latter being the dynasty that unified the peninsula)
Mongol invasions of Japan (via Korea)
Hideyoshi invasions of Ming China (via Korea)
1st Sino-Japanese war (fought in Korea)
Japanese takeover of Manchuria (Iaunched from Korea)
2nd Sino-Japanese war (launched from Manchuria and Korea)
Korean War
...and that is just off the top of my head.

China's interest is Korea has ALWAYS been geo-strategic, regardless of ideology.

RE: MIG Pilots
Indeed, Stalin was willing to fight to the last drop of Chinese blood - thought contrary to what the Chinese say (and believe?) today, Russian pilots DID fly in the Korean War, enough that the US did not bomb across the Yalu (except mistakenly). Stalin, however, had washed his hands of Kim Il-sung as early as September 1950, it was Mao, in late October who pulled Kim's balls of the vice when he sent the "People's Volunteers" south. I wonder how many people in the Politbureau are now privately questioning the wisdom of that decision....?

Regadless of the geo-strategic issues - I really don't think ideology comes into it, unless you are a Red Neck who divides the world into "commies" and "non commies"- North Korea now is a massive diplomatic albatross round China's head. Moreover, China is communist politically but not economically, while North Korea deleted communism from its consitution last year. With its "military-first" policy, god-like leader and xenophobic social culture, North Korea is more facist than communist.

FYI, many South Koreans now worry that China is quietly colonizing North Korea, economically. The question is whether this would be a good thing or a bad thing. South Korea is in a real bind: China it its No. 1 trade partner, but there is a lot of anger and frustration at China's unwillingness, or perhaps inability, to reign in its patron.

And beyond South Korea, China is making a lot of enemies in the region. The Japanese are ultra-suspicious, the Vietnamese are inviting US battlegroups to dock in its ports, and much of SEAsia is concerned about China's moves in the South China Sea. All this is a golden opp for the US and it looks like the US is finally waking up to it:
This weekend, the US and South Korea signed a long-stalled Free Trade Agreement.