The Islamic State

[Steve James]

Remember that Russia entered Ukraine to, they say, to protect ethnic Russians.

Yeah, but the Russians didn't shoot down any, er, uhm, any Turkish planes.

Or in Ukraine

[Michael]

What steve, wrote is also what I thought. After reading about the SU-24.
At any rate a first and last time for any Russian plane to get caught like this again.

I forgot about Russia also saying that after the shootdown, they will have fighter support for every bombing mission. Since DAESH has almost no air force, this would have appeared provocative earlier because the only other military planes would have been USA coalition, but thanks to Turkey shooting down the SU-24, Russia has a justification for fighters in the air.

[Steve James]

Um, the likelihood that a Russian fighter-bomber in Turkish airspace will be challenged and or fired upon is now much more certain. Fighter escorts are purely a display unless the bombers expect to be over enemy territory AND enemy fighters are expected. If Russian bombers enter Turkish airspace and shoot down a Turkish plane, it will be an act of war and could invoke the NATO mutual defense pact. Let's see.

[Michael]

Why is it more certain that Turkey would attack Russian planes, because they have fighter escorts? I would have thought the overall situation now would mean the opposite, that because of increased Russian military capability with SU-400, missile destroyer, fighter escort, and political advantage, Turkey would be less likely to attack under similar circumstances they recently claimed as self-defense, such as the 17 second incursion.

[grzegorz]

Deadly 'Russian airstrike' hits market in Syria's Idlib

At least 44 people killed and scores wounded in air attack on popular marketplace in town of Ariha, activists say.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/2 ... 03978.html

[Michael]

Turkey's attack on Russian jet is foreign policy nightmare - Austrian ex-chancellor

Sophie Shevardnadze: Wolfgang Schussel former Chancellor and foreign minister of Austria, welcome to the show, it's really great to have you with us. Now, a NATO country, Turkey, has shot down a Russian bomber in Syria, claiming it strayed into Turkish airspace. When a Turkish plane was shot for violating Syrian airspace, mr. Erdogan dubbed it an "attack with no excuse" - now, when a Russian plane is shot by Turkey in similar circumstances, it's an "appropriate self-defence". How this ambiguous stance of a NATO member and an EU candidate is viewed in Europea? Why is Turkey changing its stance when it feels like it? What's European take on that?

Wolfgang Schussel: I think it's a nightmare incident, what happened a few days ago. This is exactly what some military experts warned about - there were repeated warning that there could be a clash between two nations in this already overcrowded Syrian sky. I think, what is needed is more cooperation and coordination. And, I think, the response of Turkey, even if there would be some incidents, let's say, for 2-5 seconds crossing a border land, it's not an appropriate reaction for that. So, I think, what is needed is a military coordination in this very disputed area.

[windwalker]

Why is it more certain that Turkey would attack Russian planes, because they have fighter escorts? I would have thought the overall situation now would mean the opposite, that because of increased Russian military capability with SU-400, missile destroyer, fighter escort, and political advantage, Turkey would be less likely to attack under similar circumstances they recently claimed as self-defense, such as the 17 second incursion.

I agree, they wont have a chance and now they really dont control their own airspace with the Russian systems in place. Now they are the ones boxed in...

the other advantage is that the Russians can test it with out using it. Tracking all planes in the air space. I would say the US would be very circumspect about using
any real stealth tech knowing they will be tracking them.

[Steve James]

Why is it more certain that Turkey would attack Russian planes

If Russian planes intrude into Turkey, yes it's certain Turkey will respond. C'mon, if Turkish bombers çross into Russia, what would happen?

[grzegorz]

Turkey has the EU eating out of the palm of their hand.

http://www.euronews.com/2015/11/29/eu-a ... tion-deal/

[Michael]

Why is it more certain that Turkey would attack Russian planes

If Russian planes intrude into Turkey, yes it's certain Turkey will respond. C'mon, if Turkish bombers çross into Russia, what would happen?

Maybe I'm coming at it from a different POV, that the shoot down was extremely controversial and not self-defense, Turkey's side of the story is not plausible and widely rejected as an escalation even if what they say is true, and that NATO will not let Turkey draw them into a war with Russia.

USA and Germany both pulled their Patriot missiles out of Turkey in August, coinciding with the entire change of US operations in regards to ISIS and Turkey, so the removal of US anti-missiles and the insertion of Russian S-400's to me means that Turkey is on their own if they attack a Russian plane that is in Syrian air space, or in similar questionable circumstances to Nov. 24 shootdown of the SU-24.

However, considering that NATO suspended military communications with Russia after the Ukraine coup in Feb. 2014, and that Russia suspended military communication with Turkey just now, and USA won't join Russia's comm. center, it seems all the pieces are in place for brinksmanship and escalation.

I wonder what Russia's strategy is if Turkey attacks one of their planes? Seems precarious, but I don't think any future attack on Russian forces will be without a counter-attack, no matter who does it.

As the ex-Austrian Chancellor said, it's a nightmare scenario.

[Steve James]

Your pov starts from the premise that it was an attack. That is not the Turkish pov. Since the position of even Turkey's allies is -as you have cited- is that Turkey's action was unhelpful to the ultimate goal, but that the Russian plane did enter its airspace. Anyway, I don't know. However, I do think that Turkey will challenge any Russian plane over Turkey. Moreover, if any Russian plane enters Turkish airspace, it will be considered a deliberate act. As you say, Russian control of its aircraft has only increased.

[Michael]

Moscow announces some changes to its relationship with Turkey, such as not importing goods, discontinuing new work visas, stopping tourist services, stopping reciprocity on cross-border, visa-free travel, etc.

Executive Order on measures to ensure Russia’s national security and protection of Russian citizens against criminal and other illegal acts and on the application of special economic measures against Turkey

[Michael]

An article about recent incursions of Russian planes into Turkish air space.

Analysis: Downing of Russian jet hardly a surprise

[windwalker]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymKnnMJ ... e=youtu.be

[Michael]

They don't seem to respect the rules about shooting people who parachute from planes in distress.