The Islamic State

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Re: The Islamic State

Postby Steve James on Mon Nov 30, 2015 7:38 am

Why was the Russian plane operating (bombing) areas where there are Turkmen or Turks, but no Daesh?
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Re: The Islamic State

Postby windwalker on Mon Nov 30, 2015 7:53 am

When asked if Israel would hypothetically intercept a Russian jet that crossed into its air space, the official said: "Our policy is that we do not attack or down anything that is Russian."

"Russia is not an enemy," he said. "We are trying to avoid tension with the Russians. Both sides wish not to get to a point where two pilots, an Israeli and a Russian, will meet in the air and will be unsure of what to do. We are not going near the aerial zone in which they are operating, and they don't come close to where we are operating."

"This region is made up of common boundaries, and there are a lot of players on the ground and in the air," the official said. "If a Russian plane crosses the aerial boundary, we will not launch a missile and we won't down it."

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Israel ... ace-435493


In all of this I would have thought the US could either confirm or deny that the plane did cross into the airspace in question.

Israel is closely following the Russian military build-up in Syria. Satellite imagery shows activity at the Syrian air force's Latakia air base, including reinforcing runways, building helicopter landing pads, deploying mobile housing units and constructing several new buildings, including a new air traffic control tower. They also show the arrival of Sukhoi Su-27 fighters and Russian transport helicopters and helicopter gunships.

Israeli sources suggest that Russia is also likely to deploy surface-to-air missile systems to protect its assets.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... yr-417026/

They now have those assets in place
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Re: The Islamic State

Postby Michael on Mon Nov 30, 2015 7:58 am

Steve James wrote:Why was the Russian plane operating (bombing) areas where there are Turkmen or Turks, but no Daesh?

This article that was published maybe half a day or more before the SU-24 was shot down offers reasons why there is intense fighting in Latakia between the Syrian army and its Russian support with various armed opposition.

The Terrorist Front in Northwest Syria Appears Close to Collapse

The article says there is major fighting there now because it's a supply corridor for the various groups of rebel fighters/terrorists.

The terrorist rebel position in northwest Syria is now close to collapse as shown on this map in the area circled in red, where the Syrian Army is about to cut a major supply route of ISIS near Kassab

The rebel position south of Kessab in northwest Syria is regarded as especially critical, with key hills like Kizilidag and Jabal Aterra being liberated by the Syrian government forces. As a result, according to a reliable source, “the access of Turkish military and terrorists to Latakia province is now 100% dependent on the M4 [highway] and from there to minor roads. Should the terrorist defenses collapse on all positions north of M4, which is not very far from happening, then the Syrian Army will have artillery control over M4 and the terrorist rebel rats inside Latakia province will be doomed.”

Clearing the terrorist rebels out of the whole of Latakia province and reaching the Turkish border will be a major achievement for the Russian-Syrian steamroller.


Image
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Re: The Islamic State

Postby Michael on Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:00 am

windwalker wrote:In all of this I would have thought the US could either confirm or deny that the plane did cross into the airspace in question.

I interpret the lack of the USA confirming Turkey's claim the SU-24 was across the border as significant. USA has just said we don't have all the information and Turkey has a right to self-defense. It sounds like a vote of no confidence to me.
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Re: The Islamic State

Postby Steve James on Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:05 am

There's been no doubt that there was an incursion. The question was the duration (five seconds or five minutes), whether the Russians were aware of it, and the necessity of shooting the plane down. It's more than likely they knew. It's true that the shoot down was unnecessary

Russian military capabilities are not superior to Turkey's, which uses NATO and US tech.
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Re: The Islamic State

Postby windwalker on Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:13 am

Now, for the first time since that night six years ago, the former Serbian commander of an anti-aircraft missile battery has consented to speak publicly to Western media about the circumstances surrounding the unprecedented downing of a U.S. stealth plane.

The hit on the radar-evading plane on March 27, 1999, during the 78-day NATO campaign over Serbia, triggered doubts not only about the F-117s, but also about the entire concept of stealth technology on which the U.S. Air Force has based its newest generation of warplanes.

Military analysts debated how the planes would fare in a war against a militarily sophisticated opponent if an obsolescent air defense such as Serbia's could manage to track and destroy them.

In an interview this week with The Associated Press, Dani said the F-117 was detected and shot down during a moonless night — just three days into the war — by a Soviet-made SA-3 Goa surface-to-air missile.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/wor ... alth_x.htm

now they have access to the Russia's latest air defenses.

According to Sergeant Dragan Matić, the soldier later identified as the operator who fired the missiles, the stealth plane was detected at a range of about 50 to 60 kilometres and the surface-to-air missile radar was switched on for no more than 17 seconds to prevent the site to be detected by the NATO’s SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defense) aircraft.

Some pieces of the 82-0806 shot down near Novi Sad were reportedly sent to Russia, to be used in developing anti-stealth technology.

http://theaviationist.com/2014/03/27/vega-31-shot-down/
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Re: The Islamic State

Postby windwalker on Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:15 am

Russia is aware that NATO surveillance assets are able to monitor all Syrian-based Russian military aircraft activity including the rebel groups it is targeting, locations and weapons used. Some of these rebel groups are directly supported by the US and its allies which may result in Russia becoming in direct political conflict with NATO. To avoid being spied on, Russia needs to blind the eyes and silence the ears of NATO reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering assets so its actions are not open to close scrutiny.


So how can the Krasukha-4 be used to cloak Russia’s operations in Syria? In words – partially effectively. Its surveillance systems will not only be able to monitor NATO aircraft movement over Syria but also the types, and from its intelligence it will know the frequencies used and signal characteristics present –

Lacrosse satellites and AWACS operate in S-band, Sentinel (and similar) in X-band, and drones in J-band. Lacrosse/Onyx satellite positions are continually tracked by Russia. With this intelligence detail the Krasukha-4 can be programmed to engage in order to deny or disrupt NATO intelligence gathering.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... yr-417026/

In other words the US would know pretty clearly what was going on and what really happened.

If they confirm it, the Russians will know that they can still track them if the Russians where trying to prevent it, if they can they still wont say or
really where not able to track them.
Last edited by windwalker on Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Islamic State

Postby Steve James on Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:17 am

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Re: The Islamic State

Postby windwalker on Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:27 am

Steve James wrote:http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2015/11/turkish-f-16-shoots-down-russian-jet-for-disputed-airspace-violation/


[
But given the Russian aircraft was only in Turkish airspace for a few seconds (and only penetrated, even by the Turks' accounting, by a little more than a mile), it's still possible that the GLONASS system used by the Russian military for navigation may have given the aircrew different information than the Turks had. GLONASS has fewer satellites than GPS, and more of its satellites follow the same orbital path.

That makes positioning errors more likely. And with the complex border between Syria and Turkey (and Russia's operations against Syrian rebels taking them extremely close to that border), a slight miscalculation in flight path could put Russian pilots in Turkish airspace.


A first and last time one of Russia s plans gets shot down
Even if they stray into the others airspace, my guess is they wont send any maned assests to engage them
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Re: The Islamic State

Postby windwalker on Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:43 am

Michael wrote:
windwalker wrote:In all of this I would have thought the US could either confirm or deny that the plane did cross into the airspace in question.

I interpret the lack of the USA confirming Turkey's claim the SU-24 was across the border as significant. USA has just said we don't have all the information and Turkey has a right to self-defense. It sounds like a vote of no confidence to me.


I would agree, they cant be to happy about what happened.
Allowed Russia to move in assets they needed to support their forces.

US and Russia have different ideas concerning military tech.
The US may have the high tech, requires a lot of support.

The Russians tech may not be so high tech but is very robust
not as much support needed.

IMO different approaches.
Last edited by windwalker on Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Islamic State

Postby Michael on Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:48 am

Steve James wrote:There's been no doubt that there was an incursion. The question was the duration (five seconds or five minutes), whether the Russians were aware of it, and the necessity of shooting the plane down. It's more than likely they knew. It's true that the shoot down was unnecessary

Turkey sent a letter to the UN, which was leaked, and it said Turkey warned the SU-24 for 5 minutes and it was inside for 17 seconds. Seems like something is missing from that, but could be filled in by Turkey's rules of engagement, claiming 8 KM outside their border for airplanes. I don't have the source for Turkey's reported rules of engagement, but it seems to fit.

Russian military capabilities are not superior to Turkey's, which uses NATO and US tech.

I posted an article a while back from Voltaire Net that claimed Russia had deployed electronic countermeasures in April 2014 from an SU-24 against a US Navy ship in the Black Sea, and then again at the start of their air campaign in Syria, and the article claimed that it knocked out all USA/NATO electronic communications. Article is totally unconfirmed and out there, but other things from that source over the years on Syria have been accurate, IMO. Meh, have to discount it, but curious.

EDIT: Found the source for Turkey's rules of engagement creating an 8 KM buffer.
https://syrianfreepress.wordpress.com/2 ... ed-border/
Last edited by Michael on Mon Nov 30, 2015 8:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Islamic State

Postby Michael on Mon Nov 30, 2015 9:02 am

Okay, now I think I understand why Turkey claimed it warned the Su-24 for 5 minutes when it was only in its air space for 17 seconds. Turkey claims a buffer zone of 8 KM. Nice, but illegitimate.

From an October 4, 2015 article following a Turkish complaint of Russian air space incursion.
Turkey has maintained a buffer zone five miles inside Syria since June 2012, when a Syrian air defense missile shot down a Turkish fighter plane that had strayed into Syrian airspace. Under revised rules of engagement put in effect then, the Turkish air force would evaluate any target coming within five miles of the Turkish border as an enemy and act accordingly.


Continuing on, the article answers the question of why the Syrian army and Russian air force are in that area.
The town, in a mountainous region of northern Latakia province, has been a prime route for smuggling people and goods between Turkey and Syria and reportedly has functioned as a key entry for weapons shipped to Syrian rebels by the U.S.-led Friends of Syria group of Western and Middle Eastern countries.


http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article37739349.html
Last edited by Michael on Mon Nov 30, 2015 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Islamic State

Postby Steve James on Mon Nov 30, 2015 9:22 am

Like I said, it's clear that Russian aircraft violated Turkish airspace. It could have been a nav error. But, then you can't go on about superior Russian technology. The Russian plane might have been communicating on a different communication frequency. But, that's not standard op for "friendlies." And non-identification is the pilot's fault.
Out of sight (vfr) identification of aircraft is rarely clear. Afa more Turkish shootdowns, we have to see what happens. Secondly, the Turks have sta missiles (ours) that can also take out jets. Sending fighters is unnecessary.
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Re: The Islamic State

Postby Michael on Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:14 am

Russia says they did not cross the Turkish border and I think all evidence supports Russia more. Why do you say it's clear Russia violated Turkish airspace?
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Re: The Islamic State

Postby Michael on Mon Nov 30, 2015 10:19 am

But, then you can't go on about superior Russian technology.

Of course I don't know, but I think it's likely Russia believes it has a tactical advantage for this operation, otherwise they're too vulnerable to the scenario that's happening now. Maybe this is giving them too much credit.

They have a policy of no foreign wars, however it seems that after the Chechnyan wars, they consider state-sponsored terrorism more of an existential threat than NATO aggression. Finally, they felt the need to act in Syria, but without a tactical advantage, why wouldn't it be similar to Afghanistan, especially operating next to a NATO country? We'll see.
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