The Islamic State

[grzegorz]

Lots of saber rattling that's for sure.

[grzegorz]

Turkey was wrong, but it's war. The plane was probably in Turkish airspace, but not over Istanbul or a strategic target. Turkey went to NATO because it was an obvious snafu. However, remember that it only takes an order from one over-eager fella for a button to be pushed. To their credit, the Soviets had the least itchiest fingers.

Turkey has had a lot of these air conflicts with Russia since the Russians entered the Syrian war.

From October 6

Turkey 'cannot endure' Russian violation of airspace, president says

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/o ... ions-syria

[Steve James]

Well, yeah, but it could have been instrument error. The Turks said that they tried to contact the plane 10 times, but it's likely that the plane had radio turned off or was operating under radio silence. If they thought they were over Syria, and weren't listening to Turkish radio traffic, etc. Granted, the Turks have no love for the Russians, and they really don't want to get into a Syria fight --because some of those who hate Assad hate the Turks as much.

Anyway, ever see the movie "Fail Safe"?

[grzegorz]

One angle is that tbe Turks are sending a message to the Russians and NATO that Turkey will not be ignored.

Turkey's government is against ASSAD yet the Turks are also angered that NATO is arming Kurds and continues deny the Kurds the right to their own country which would help resolve some issues in that region.

[Michael]

Fail Safe is a great movie. Difficult call as to whether it or Strangelove is the more realistic interpretation

Turkey is the primary buyer of stolen ISIS oil, Thierry Meyssan says Erdogan's son is in charge of that oil deal, which is traded for logistical support as oil goes one way and money and supplies go the other across a section of the Turkey-Syria border. Meyssan also says Erdogan's daughter runs a hospital for ISIS terrorists.

Turkey/Erdogan is desperately trying to draw NATO into the conflict because Russia's attacks on ISIS and support for Assad are contrary to Turkey's short-term use of ISIS and long-term goals against Kurds and Assad.

Russia will not take the bait. They knew this was a risk and probably blame Turkey partly for their support of ISIS leading to the downing of their A321 in Egypt. Putin and Lavrov say Turkey is just as risky for terrorism as Egypt, which I think might be such an accusation.

Several months ago, I think late July, USA and Germany announced they were pulling anti-missile and anti-aircraft Patriot systems out of Turkey, supposedly because it became apparent that Turkey were using them not for defense, but possibly offensively against Syria, leading to the chance of them using those systems to create a conflict involving NATO. I never found a confirmation they were actually removed, just in the works. Does that take 6 weeks or 6 months? No idea.

[windwalker]

Does that take 6 weeks or 6 months? No idea.

The Patriot system is modular and highly mobile. A battery-sized element can be emplaced in less than 1 hour. All components, consisting of the fire control section (radar set, engagement control station, antenna mast group, electric power plant) and launchers, are truck- or trailer-mounted. The radar set and launchers (with missiles) are mounted on M860 semi-trailers, which are towed by Oshkosh M983 HEMTTs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot

weeks, months, days, nope maybe to travel from one place to another but not set up nor take down.

The US withdrawal of the Patriot systems started when the batteries were brought to Turkey's Mediterranean port of Iskenderun.

The pull out was initiated despite an Oct. 8 appeal by Turkey to its NATO allies.

The US move also coincided with NATO statements that the alliance was prepared to send ground forces to defend its member state.

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defens ... /73787688/

[Michael]

Oh yeah, I was just thinking in terms of how long it takes them to make decisions from Germany to NATO to Turkey, and then get approval for moving things around.

[grzegorz]

The doomsday ideology of ISIS
The terror group’s apocalyptic vision is a powerful recruiting pitch

Yahoo News By Liz Goodwin Nov 23, 2015 5:02 AM

In a boastful press release after the Paris attacks that left 130 dead earlier in the month, ISIS celebrated its “victory” over the city it called the “lead carrier of the cross.”

“Allah granted victory upon their hands and cast terror into the hearts of the crusaders in their very own homeland,” the group wrote.

The medieval language is a glimpse into the terror group’s little-discussed apocalyptic ideology, one that draws on prophecies written after Muhammad’s death that were used to motivate Muslims to battle by caliphs who lived more than a thousand years ago. While al-Qaida occasionally hinted at these doomsday writings foretelling a grand battle with infidels at the end of the world, ISIS has made them the bedrock of its brand.

These prophecies are so entwined with ISIS’ identity that the group has pasted a line from one of them — “a Caliphate in Accordance with the Prophetic Method” — on the coins it has minted, on the badges soldiers wear and even on a billboard marking the beginning of ISIS territory. In that prophecy, Muhammad said that after a “tyrannical monarchy,” an Islamic caliphate would return. The formation of the caliphate would lead to a grand battle with the West that would bring along the end of the world.

The prophecies ISIS relies on were written dozens and sometimes hundreds of years after Muhammad’s death and are not included in the Quran, as Brookings scholar Will McCants explains in his book “The ISIS Apocalypse.” But the prophecies are widespread and believed by many — one poll in 2012 suggested half of Arabs believed the end of the world was nigh.

In ISIS’ interpretation, the figure of the Mahdi, or “the rightly guided one” will appear to lead final battles against the Western infidels, called Rome, in northern Syria before the end of days. After the day of judgment, only those who supported the Mahdi will be saved. The Mahdi will appear after the establishment of an Islamic caliphate. (Medieval caliphs, attempting to gin up support for their own battles against the Christian crusaders, claimed to be the Mahdi in the past.) In some of the prophecies, Jesus descends from the heavens to assist the Mahdi in his battle against the infidels, who are led by an Antichrist figure.

ISIS leadership has made key military decisions based upon these prophecies. It fought in the summer of 2014 to take over the small and militarily unimportant village of Dabiq close to Turkey because it is name-checked in one of the prophecies as a place where the final great battles will occur. The infidels are supposed to gather under “80 flags” in this village, before their defeat. (Dabiq is also the name of ISIS’ monthly magazine.)

ISIS’ claim that the apocalypse is nigh is a powerful recruitment tool, not unlike an “Act now! 24 hours only!” sales pitch.

“The belief that the end of the world is coming and you’re going to be fighting on the side of the good guys when the world ends is a powerful motivator,” McCants told Yahoo News. “Young people going to join [ISIS] believe they are participating in a apocalyptic prophecy.”

“The really interesting thing here from the psychological perspective is the sense of urgency,” said John Horgan, a psychologist and terrorism expert at Georgia State University. “They’re sending the message that the forces of evil are about to reach their goals so you need to act now rather than later. You don’t have the luxury of waiting for this to happen.”

It’s unknown if the leadership of ISIS really believes in these prophecies or is simply using them to establish legitimacy in the eyes of their supporters. ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has a Ph.D. in Quranic studies.

McCants tracked down examples of ISIS supporters and members trying to fit current events into the murky and sometimes conflicting timeline of the prophecies. “Thirty states remain to complete the number of eighty flags that will gather in Dabiq and begin the battle,” one jihadi Tweeted, seemingly waiting for more nations to sign on to fight ISIS before the last grand battle could occur and usher in the end of the world.

One can imagine ISIS leaders running into trouble if their apocalyptic vision takes too long and supporters begin asking questions and become impatient.

“Part of why ISIS is trying to goad the West into action is it’s a critical part of fulfilling their prophecies,” Horgan said.

The group has also refrained from explicitly calling its leader al-Baghdadi the Mahdi, which means its followers know they have to wait for him to appear before the world is ending. Sunni and Shiite beliefs about the Mahdi diverge in one key way: Sunni Islam, the branch of the religion ISIS adheres to, posits that the Mahdi, the prophet’s successor, has yet to come. According to the Shiite tradition, the Mahdi came but will remain hidden until he brings justice to the world.

That fighters believe they are fulfilling a grand destiny helps explain why thousands of them have been willing to leave more comfortable lives in nations all around the world to join the dangerous and reviled group. “It’s definitely more cultlike than al-Qaida,” said Karen Greenberg, the director of Fordham’s Center on National Security. “It’s got all the accouterments of a cult.”

http://news.yahoo.com/the-doomsday-ideo ... 45938.html

[windwalker]

@g and some of the other active posters on this thread.

what would any one of you recommend doing that is not being done now, or is being done?

[grzegorz]

Putin says that Russia signed a deal about procedure to avoid air conflict with USA coalition (edit: maybe just with USA), of which Turkey is a part, implying Turkey violated this agreement. He also complains Turkey did not contact Russia after the shooting, but contacted NATO.

https://www.rt.com/news/323262-putin-downing-plane-syria/

A diplomatic slap in the face is was that was.

I found it funny that the Russians were originally saying that no one was killed in the chopper that was blown up. Who was flying it the A-team?

But now they are saying they lost one Marine. It makes it difficult to find a source credible when they keep changing their story.

The Russians are saying that there were no warnings and their aircraft did not cross into Turkey. Perhaps with time evidence will come out supporting one theory or the other.

They are also saying that they will no longer communicate with Turkey which means there will probably be a further events like this between the two countries.

My sympathies to the Russians in uniform, I don't believe this conflict will ever end for them and when they do leave the situation won't be any better.

[windwalker]

Putin said the plane was hit by a Turkish warplane as it was traveling at an altitude of 6000 meters about a kilometer from the Turkish border. It was hit by an air-to-air missile launched by a Turkish F-16 jet. The crash site is four kilometers from the border. The plane posed no threat to Turkish national security, he stressed.

Putin said the plane was targeting terrorist targets in the Latakia province of Syria, many of whom came from Russia.

what I dont understand is that most of the aircraft have systems that allow them to know when they'er being targeted.
seems like the pilots where not expecting anything to happen. Probably a first and last time this happens I would bet.

[grzegorz]

@g and some of the other active posters on this thread.

what would any one of you recommend doing that is not being done now, or is being done?

I don't have any recommendations.

I'm processing what's happening. Michael, although we may disagree, and Steve have given me a lot to think about which is not available on the news.

[Michael]

I'm like you, Greg, this is complex and I find talking to you and Steve very helpful to process all the info. and also develop better ways to interpret the way info. is delivered, you know, the spin factor.

Russia has had a pipeline and other deals going on the past couple of years with Turkey, so this break in relations is serious. This may sound odd, but I think Russia is taking the position all the way that terrorism is a threat to everyone and you can't play with fire. They've been saying that loudly since Libya and I think they're going for a foreign policy based on that as a way to build consensus. They haven't been terribly reactionary to the sanctions and other things, IMO.

[grzegorz]

Thanks Michael. You've definitely brought a lot to the table and I believe both you and Wind do a good job of explaining the Russian thinking. I don't disagree with anyone trying to stop IS as much as I'm trying to see what's happening beyond the headlines.

I wasn't aware of the pipeline but I have heard that half of Turkey's gas comes from Russia so yes this is quite a slap in the face and comes the same week as the Russians and Iranians are "holding hands."

Obviously the Turks decision to shoot down a Russian fighter was something they thought long and hard about before actually doing it. Even the war hungry U.S. wouldn't pull something like that. This decision was made long before today.

[grzegorz]

By the way I should mention that Bill Maher thinks it's wonderful that Russia is attacking IS. So there is support throughout the U.S. in some surprising places. I just can't imagine how this will all end if ever but I also know that the Russians can't back down after having one of their passenger planes blown out of the sky and they shouldn't unless they want to encourage IS in the belief that terrorism works.