Guy's predictions on where America is headed

[Jake]

But I'm not here to argue brutha....

Just stuff I thought was hella interesting and relevant.

[chud]

The type of people who are die hard Ron Paul supporters saw this coming a LONG time ago. I even posted a link to a graph on the Fed's web site some time ago here on EF showing that the banks had no reserves (in fact, negative reserves) but it was dismissed by some (*cough* Teazer *cough*). I am not dismissing this guy, in fact he is right on, but many people saw this coming years ago. I've believed it since I read Dr Ravi Batra's book back in the late 80's or early 90's (though it still surprises and unnerves me to see it actually playing out). It didn't happen as soon as Batra predicted, but the facts became more and more undeniable in recent years...the system simply was not sustainable.

Props to him for recording a vid and putting it in the historical record though.

I still hope with all my heart that we will avoid the worst: hyperinflation and currency collapse a la Argentina and pre-war Germany, heavy unemployment, civil unrest, food shortages, etc.

For those interested in delving a little deeper, you can check out HyperTiger's blog (click)...I don't like his arrogant tone (or the way he speaks in sentence fragments all the time...LOL), but I guess he is that way because he is firm in his beliefs, and justified by recent events.

[Teazer]

I even posted a link to a graph on the Fed's web site some time ago here on EF showing that the banks had no reserves (in fact, negative reserves) but it was dismissed by some (*cough* Teazer *cough*).

It's a fair cop! The negative values might be dodgier than the Fed explanation made out. That said, the problem in the market hasn't been with the depository banks which you cited, in fact they're the ones that have been going around buying up the investment banks (which aren't, or at least weren't, depository institutions)
http://www.emptyflower.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=780
Still no sign of that collapse of the dollar though, or the hyperinflation. Plus I hope your planning on keeping gold for the long term since that buy recommendation back then isn't looking so good now.

Guy back in March predicts everything that's happened recently.

Okay, so I made a list. He did good in a few respects. I thought mentioning the big rallies in the bear market was particularly good.

great depression?
Too early to tell. It has certainly sucked so far but depression would a whole lot worse.
Dow jones ->7-8000, S&P ->6-800 by feb 2009
Not yet, but there's still time!
long term -> debt can't get paid back
No sign of it yet, but interest payments will be a lot higher in the future for sure.
Baby boomers retiring -> draining the healthcare & soc sec funds, pulling money out of retirement accts -> crash 2012
Well, they'll be taking money out over time, but I suspect a lot of them won't retire as early as they hoped.

crash this year
Check!
hyperinflation this year
Not even close
within 60 days gas =$4
Check! But it was already at $3.66 in some places at that time
within a year oil ->175+
Not yet. The highest it reached so far was 150. His prediction was when it was 110 and it's way down from there now.
gold ->1500 -2000
Not close. It got to its peak in March @1000 & then went down. Now it's at $722
http://www.monex.com/images/charts/GBX_ ... AY_BIG.PNG

markets won't recover after summer '08
Can't say, but ok so far
bear market with violent rallies 400 up days
Check!
Eu = $1.75 after summer 2008
It was at 1.57 when he made his prediction. Got up to 1.60, now its back down to 1.28
Unemployment will get worse. numbers manipulated.
Check! It increased. Not a huge surprise though.
cpi & inflation numbers dodgy
As I mentioned before, you can get the market's view on inflation using the difference between the regular treasuries & the Tips rate. So that's incorrect for starters. CPI has always overstated inflation numbers by about 20% so if anything it's lower than that would say
store up on food
Always a good idea to have a bunch of non-perishables and a considerable amount of drinkable water on hand.
switch to silver/gold/euro/yuan etc
To the extent they add to a balanced and diversified portfolio, sure. But the prices are pretty good at internalizing the market's information, so don't expect to get much beyond added risk.
consumer based economy collapses
I have considerable faith in the ability of the US population to buy stuff. Still, early days as yet. It'd be refreshing if that's the case.
dollar will collapse
As mentioned, so far nope.
hyperinflation
Also nope. Not even close.

[chud]

Still no sign of that collapse of the dollar though, or the hyperinflation.

Wait for it.

Plus I hope your planning on keeping gold for the long term since that buy recommendation back then isn't looking so good now.

Actually it's looking like it was a VERY good recommendation because there is no supply and very high demand right now. Just try to go to your local coin shop and buy any American Silver Eagles, Krugerrands, or any other gold/silver coins. You'll have trouble finding any. However for some odd reason, the price of gold and silver is low in spite of this...hmmm, looks like the folks at GATA are right, the gold market is fixed.

CPI has always overstated inflation numbers by about 20% ...

LOL, quite the opposite, they understate it.

[Steve James]

Gold just dipped below $700.

[Chris Fleming]

Time to buy.

[chud]

The low price is completely bass-ackwards when you consider the high demand and low supply right now. The government is manipulating the precious metals markets.

[Chris Fleming]

The low price is completely bass-ackwards when you consider the high demand and low supply right now. The government is manipulating the precious metals markets.

QFT!!!

You have to go on ebay just to several forms of silver right now. Every seller is nearly tapped out. And, when they do get some, lets say, Silver Eagles in, they are asking for like $17-$22 per ounce when silver is below $10. Even with a normal premium on those coins, that's one hell of a mark up, which reflects the actual demand.

[chud]

Yep, eBay is reflecting price more accurately than the "real" market.

Btw hold on to your hats folks, the stock market is dropping like a rock. Crash today.

[Steve James]

If the gov't manipulates the market, does that mean that gold is a good or bad investment?
To say that there is something wrong with the market is to do the same thing that Greenspan did yesterday. He said that "things didn't turn out as I expected."

Well, yah, but that doesn't help the guy who bought when the price was closer to 1K. In addition, the supply will shrink because no one wants to sell right now. Are you? So, why should the person who has quantity? Why should anyone put more on the market? We just need to worry that we don't lose our jobs and then need to liquidate. That's especially true when, iinm, the dollar is not plunging, especially in relation to foreign currency. This is probably due to investors wanting to buy into the US market. So, other than oil and homes, the prices of things are not going down.

[Chris Fleming]

Even with the manipulation, I'd rather buy something real than listen to what people say about stocks: "buy now! the market always goes up eventually!". In reality, all those people are hoping for is the greater fool theory in superlative action. And, of course, to keep their jobs. Like I said, I'd rather have something real.

[Steve James]

Even with the manipulation, I'd rather buy something real than listen to what people say about stocks: "buy now! the market always goes up eventually!". In reality, all those people are hoping for is the greater fool theory in superlative action. And, of course, to keep their jobs. Like I said, I'd rather have something real.

Hey, I think that the tangibilty of gold is its biggest attraction. I.e.,buy it cause you like it.

[Teazer]

CPI has always overstated inflation numbers by about 20% ...

LOL, quite the opposite, they understate it.

LOL, no really!
Actually there's a couple of reasons for it overstating inflation: first because it is difficult to account for technological improvements (eg, $1000 computer now buys a lot better computer than 10 years ago), and peoples tendency to shop at cheaper outlets when prices go up. So what makes you think otherwise?

Time to buy.

Is there ever a time not to buy gold in your book? Personally I'm fine having a bit of it, but not worth the extra risk of concentrating as heavily as you state.

If the gov't manipulates the market, does that mean that gold is a good or bad investment?

Unless you are very well connected in a market, and really know its pitfalls (ie not your average personal investor), stay away from a market that isn't liquid - where volume is low, it's difficult to get an accurate price or a trade done etc. It's just not worth the extra risk since you'd be at the end of the line if the market goes south, while all the better connected people get out first.

If governments play a large part in a market that's another reason to be very wary since as we've seen recently, policy changes can have huge effects on prices. You'd be betting your savings on some government policy maker's decision. Again, the people who are better connected will hear of it first, and the big banks can trade on the news much faster than you can so once more you're at the end of the line if you need to sell.

I don't know enough about the quirks of the gold market to know what effects governments have on it, but given it's a commodity, an alternate explanation is that while there are some forms of gold (eg in coin form) that are out of supply, gold bullion is being traded. The price difference is then due to manufacturing shortages rather gold shortages.

[Chris Fleming]

"Is there ever a time not to buy gold in your book? Personally I'm fine having a bit of it, but not worth the extra risk of concentrating as heavily as you state."

Yeah you understand me so well.

To answer your question, gold under $1,200 an ounce and silver under $30 an ounce are deals.

At the same time, I must say that it feels like something strange is happening. Gold, silver, and other commodities should be going up in times like these not down. Market manipulation is certainly the culprit, but the why is not fully known.

[Interloper]

Deep down, you guys really want to load up on guns and head to the hills with some cans of beans and tents while society crumbles, don't ya?

The idea of a lot of guys eating beans together in tents makes me a little nervous. Especially where firearms are present, with the potential for creating sparks.