BREXIT

[RobP3]

Im not a Tory but I'd say the only one worth anything out of those is Rees-Mogg. Yes he is "posh" but I do think he is genuine and not a career politician a la Boris

Theresa May is a disaster, the police hate her. A lot of the others have various skeletons in the cupboard and as for Hunt, hahahaha!

[cloudz]

Can't see too far past Boris, I guess the sooner the better now. He could do with a haircut and getting serious, but I think he can pull it off.

[Michael]

John Oliver described Boris and Nigel perfectly: two idiots who dreamed up a simplistic, emotive grab and have absolutely not a single clue one of what to do next, and are already back tracking.

[mrtoes]

Seems like out leadership don't actually want to work for a living. It was plane sailing when the EU were directing policy, now the call to be an actual politician comes and they all run for the hills. Highlights by and large, what a pathetic bunch they are ... yet i keep hearing how THEY should have been the ones to make this decision?

Well, I certainly won't defend any politician involved in this sorry mess. I do however think the onus is with those who pushed for this... to actually have a clue what to do about it afterwards.

I get the distinct impression that the people so hurt are glued to the ultra biased news networks and not seeing through their fearful stories.

What, the Financial Times? That bastion of liberal-left fear-mongering?

Things like ...
"Ready .... Position of strength ....TODAY Britain has the strongest major advanced economy in the world .... We are equipped for whatever happens"

Are glossed over in favor of the comments on uncertainty etc. But they shouldn't be underestimated. Why isnt the story, 'Osbourne said that although we faced uncertain times he said we are prepared for them, are strong and well equipped so businesses should not be concerned for Britains Future'. ?? I think it should be plainly obvious to everyone that ratings are more important than facts.

Sure - standard talk to reassure the markets. Doesn't seem to be doing the trick though!

Also, ratings are more important than facts? Are you referring to Britain's credit rating perchance? (which has dropped to AA for the first time in living memory with projected negative outlook?)

As someone that has run a small business for 12 years, who is a part of the local business circle, organizations and communities, but who also works with multinationals that are either headed in Europe or closely linked .... it currently seems to be .. life as usual. We are working with a German pharmaceuticals company and the comment by the UK director to me yesterday when i asked if the vote had effected the project was "No not at all, this isn't going to impact us so carry on". Another client who imports product from Germany and has close ties to the German market said there is no change for him either. Both of these businesses are multi million pound operations.

That's because we're only a few days in nothing is actually happening yet. No laws have changed.

What you are seeing is firstly projections on what will happen - which is represented by falling markets and the plummeting pound - along with hiring freezes and (currently fairly covert) moves to relocate business and staff offshore.

Sure, I hope for business as usual. I don't think we're going to get it in the medium term though.

By the way I am glad you have a solid position where you're not likely to be affected by this (really) but that is not my position nor that of many of my friends.

Ref grahams cute picture and to quote him .. that's the most Whiny, divisive and intolerant thing i have read for a while. The original was a message of hope and commitment to unity (not from any particular side or prefernce of view) ... that picture is one of division, intolerance, laying of blame and unjustified self pity.

Oh, that offends you? It acknowledges our anger. I found the original pretty annoying because it implies that we should just accept what has happened. For us this is a disaster and this will hit us far harder than you know. My girlfriend has been rejected by the only place she called home and has no idea whether she will be able to live and work here in a few years, and I am facing exactly the same situation in Europe (who in Germany will give an Englishman a job now?). For that reason I casting my eyes to the horizon when considering our long term plans.

Frankly, acceptance and unity is not on my mind at the moment. You might not like that but it's an honest statement. I will probably feel differently in the months ahead. I have never felt so "from Guernsey" in my life.

For all the moral high ground the In voters have claimed in the last week, and continue to do so, they sure do draw intellectually dishonest and morally questionable conclusions.

I have pussy footed around it because I still felt that most of these people were my friends ... They themselves seem to think otherwise. But when they post trash like that directly linking me to enabling Racism and division, but fail to see how their own actions enable division or separation its a bit like the straw that breaks the camels back.

So Yeh, you precious flowers take all the time you need to bitch, moan, believe in your demise and generally have a hissy fit at the 'other' ... but all the time you do that instead of being constructive, creative and resolute you actually make things worse .. for yourselves!

So I'll leave this there for you to read again.

This tone and your choice of words ("bitch", "moan", "hissy fit", "whiny", "intolerant") is neither remotely typical of you nor serves you well. I would be offended but I understand you are angry and are (probably) not addressing this entirely at me.

I understand, because I am angry too. But negative?

"Constructive, creative and resolute"... are the qualities right now I am drawing on to plan my future. I view this as an opportunity - we clearly weren't meant to go back to our sleepy life that we had before. For myself I am strangely optimistic and a little excited even though tough times will lie ahead. The rest of this mess - is not my problem.

By the way you will note that even though I am clearly angry I have given facts and have not resorted to these sort of offensive calls. Besides my personal position, the political and economic facts right now are terrifying. I can quote them at you all day and they point in one direction.

Matthew

[GrahamB]

Matthew, I'm really sorry for the position you and your girlfriend find yourselves in. I feel like I need to apologise for my country, but as you know, I didn't vote for this.

We can take action - write to your mp and try and get this thing called off. Our biggest hope is that article 50 won't be enacted at all.

An "I'm alright Jack" attitude is alright, if, you know, you're alright, but what if you're not?

"A UK town where Brexit won by two thirds is now worried about losing 6,700 car industry jobs" - the car industry issued a clear warning about this
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/900d015a-3ba2 ... z4CuEQIZyn

(Real) statistics show big rises in racial attacks. We can all take positive action and stand up to it when we see it happening. Let's do that.

Sadest thing I've heard is a friend's little daughter asking "Daddy, does mummy have to go home now?" Breaks my heart.

If there's anything I can do for you let me know. I stand beside you.

Graham

[mrtoes]

Thanks Graham, that's very nice of you. Appreciated.

I am confident we'll end up in a good place, but it's not going to be easy. There are many people who are in a much worse position than me, so I'm trying not to feel too bad. We have skills and we have flexibility - we'll be ok.

I have written to my MP but I think realistically this is it, and the best we can hope for is a least-terrible settlement.

In the meantime, we don't really know what's going on which is the worst thing - makes it hard to plan or make intelligent decisions.

Matthew

[grzegorz]

For what it's worth I wanted to mention that I got out of this thread and have a better understanding of both sides of the issue.

Cheers for that.

I think the end that it's impossible to turn back the clock and as easy as it is to criticize the EU for their regulations on which bananas you can sell (for example) I think the pro-EU side was pretty much on the defensive from the beginning without anyone to point their fingers at but I don't believe the English can ever return to the "good old days" which the Pro-Brexit forces seem to be selling.

Mostly I think it's unfortunate tbat the U.K. opened its doors to people from all over Europe (and the world) who had believed that England was the promised land where they could start a life, both keep and have all benefits they'd have in their country only to find that the door has closed. Perhaps I feel it more because I taught English in Poland and China to young people who were going live in the U.K. ane many who were Anglo-files who loved all things English (which was strange to me) but I respected their goals and dreams I do find it unfortunate that some of them have probably had a rude awakening with this vote but it's what the citizens have decided and there's no turning back now.

I'm also convinced that the U.K. will fall into a deep recession but hopefully I'm wrong, being that the U.S. just recovered from one that started ten years ago I wouldn't wish that on anyone.

[middleway]

Oh, that offends you? It acknowledges our anger. I found the original pretty annoying because it implies that we should just accept what has happened. For us this is a disaster and this will hit us far harder than you know. My girlfriend has been rejected by the only place she called home and has no idea whether she will be able to live and work here in a few years, and I am facing exactly the same situation in Europe (who in Germany will give an Englishman a job now?). For that reason I casting my eyes to the horizon when considering our long term plans.

Frankly, acceptance and unity is not on my mind at the moment. You might not like that but it's an honest statement. I will probably feel differently in the months ahead. I have never felt so "from Guernsey" in my life.

Well i am honestly sorry you feel that way. It sounds like a decision on how you feel has been made. But you know Matthew, that sentiment that your girlfriend has been rejected is what i wonder about. It seems that it is completely in your own minds based on a vote. The people in this country are EXACTLY the same people as they were 6 months ago, a year ago, did you guys feel rejected then? If she were to enter this country to work, do you seriously believe that a company would reject her? We don't even know the structure of a work visa yet, I doubt countries like Australia, USA, Canada, Japan would reject a skilled person a Visa because they are German.

As i say, 2 people i am close too in the business world have very close ties to Germany ... one ... is German, and his reaction was to chuckle on the phone with me and not be bothered at all. You are of course entitled to your feelings as am I but it is my 'feeling' that this exact reaction in the political environment that is causing the problems we are seeing, far more than the actual exit from the EU.

I hope things work out OK for you both. I honestly do, anybody that REALLY knows me, knows that I am a kind person and i wouldn't want to see anyone unnecessarily struggle.

This tone and your choice of words ("bitch", "moan", "hissy fit", "whiny", "intolerant") is neither remotely typical of you nor serves you well. I would be offended but I understand you are angry and are (probably) not addressing this entirely at me.

My tone and choice of words were completely measured and deliberate because it is the tone of the picture Graham posted, the tone and exact words of his original post to me ( I was called, whiny, intolerant etc ) and the tone of people protesting the Leave vote.They are calling people racist, they are calling people intolerant, they are calling people stupid, they are calling people uneducated. So please feel free to be offended because the picture Graham posted offends me deeply. It says that i have no consideration for the young of the country, that i enabled racism (i seem to think people forget that most of the ethnic minorities in this country are from OUTSIDE the EU) by voting for the democratic freedom of our country.

So yes i used divisive language completely intentionally and with forethought.

By the way you will note that even though I am clearly angry I have given facts and have not resorted to these sort of offensive calls. Besides my personal position, the political and economic facts right now are terrifying. I can quote them at you all day and they point in one direction.

Granted, the offensive calls were a direct response to those sent my way from Graham, I apologize if they appeared to be directed at you specifically. I agree that the political situation is Dire, the reason for this is the lack of backbone in the political establishment. I, wrongly assumed, that after a leave vote the government would do absolutely everything if could to secure high level trade and finacial agreements around the world, to stand resolute and strong in the face of the challenges ahead. The markets are reflecting the completely uncertain political landscape in the UK ... this is what is causing the finacial issues in this country and IMO not simply that we are leaving a bureaucratically fueled but lacking benefit institution.

This is not a personal attack on the people here, as it seems to have been on myself.

Graham,

Have you seriously considered the fall out of the government not enacting the will of the people here. You talk as if you care about the people being discriminated, but if this vote is not followed through, how do you think the terrible racists of this country will react? I don't think you are being intellectually honest about the consequences of not enacting this.

'Real' statistics may well be showing that the leave vote has enabled already racist elements to feel justified in expressing there racism. The result should be severe punishments for them and no one in this country should stand for it. We have seen the general public at large fighting these racism fueled attacks when they happen however, people pushing the racists out and protecting the victims. That is how it should be.

With that resolute coming together when some of these incidents occur not even being mentioned. It seems to me a bit like focusing on terrorists or extremist Mulsims and tarring the whole of Islam with that brush by association. It certainly feels very similar. Here we see the news networks zooming in on the actions of a minority, ignoring the actions of the public fighting them and claiming that it is directly related to leave voters as a whole.

Sadest thing I've heard is a friend's little daughter asking "Daddy, does mummy have to go home now?" Breaks my heart.

Heart breaking, you are right. But shouldn't the response be 'No sweetheart of course not!'

Where has this child picked up the idea that ethnic minorities or those from other countries will have to go home. I have a whole gang of Eastern European friends who i train with, most with families and none of them seem to hold this sentiment. We chatted about it the other night and they were confident that they would be able to remain in the country, as am I. Its a real shame that in some circles this idea is so pervasive.

If there's anything I can do for you let me know. I stand beside you.

Funny, I feel exactly the same about all of you. Which is why that original whinny the pooh picture resonated so well with me. I didn't care how anyone voted, and in real life, face to face it has been business and friendships as usual regardless of peoples vote. Nothing in my mind changed with regards to how i viewed my neighbors, my friends and my colleagues. I guess that i why I feel so hurt personally, I feel like i have been thrown on the trashheap with the Racists and Bigots which couldnt be further than what i am.

I will leave this thread now. I have said everything i could possibly want to say and slinging shit at each other really wont help anyone in the long run.

Wish you all an easier time that you think you will have. Hopefully if our political classes sort themselves out it will help the country as a whole feel hopeful again. Think i will head off for a bit.

peace.

[GrahamB]

At school I remember we studied a play by JB Priestly called "An Inspector calls" in English class. Because I was more interested in computers and Star Wars at the time I never really understood it. I thought it was a spooky thriller about a ghost. It was only after watching it much later at Theatre Clwyd (with the inspector played by the great Tom Baker, who will always be my Doctor Who) and at the Theatre Royal in Bath (Dharling!) that I finally understood its simple message that we are all connected. Everything we do affects everybody else, especially those less fortunate than ourselves. In these troubling times in the UK its worth remembering that simple message. If you haven't seen or read the play, I recommend it.

http://www.thehazeleyacademy.com/wp-con ... l-Text.pdf

[cloudz]

Snap, I did that at school too.

[wiesiek]

and on the end,
plumber services prices will go up while quality down ..

[mrtoes]

But you know Matthew, that sentiment that your girlfriend has been rejected is what i wonder about. It seems that it is completely in your own minds based on a vote. The people in this country are EXACTLY the same people as they were 6 months ago, a year ago, did you guys feel rejected then?

Fair question! I think that we've all realised that the country we lived in is not the place we thought it was - it's actually two countries with two very different visions - one looking backwards, one looking forwards. The part that is looking backwards is going to drag the part looking forwards into the swamp, and that makes us sad because it will cause us and people we care about pain.

If she were to enter this country to work, do you seriously believe that a company would reject her? We don't even know the structure of a work visa yet, I doubt countries like Australia, USA, Canada, Japan would reject a skilled person a Visa because they are German.

Mmm not a good example to draw.

Visa - So my girlfriend works in water management, but she's not an engineer which makes it hard to qualify for skilled visas. Let's look at the examples below:

Australia: Points system (would only make it with prior work offer - very difficult)
USA: H1 or L1 visa - not a chance! Very difficult even for me
Canada: Points system (would only make it with prior work offer - very difficult)
Japan: Category visa - None applies

Doesn't look so good does it? We'd better hope for a better deal than that. Fortunately we have mobility due to my position (I am a software engineer with 16 years experience and have strong links with one of the world's largest international companies) but don't make the mistake of thinking that normal people can just hop over and work in another country on a whim. It also means she is dependent on me... Which for a strong-minded German lady is not a good thing.

As i say, 2 people i am close too in the business world have very close ties to Germany ... one ... is German, and his reaction was to chuckle on the phone with me and not be bothered at all. You are of course entitled to your feelings as am I but it is my 'feeling' that this exact reaction in the political environment that is causing the problems we are seeing, far more than the actual exit from the EU.

You have hope for your business - well and good. I'm sure you'll be fine, though depending on your industry you may see a drop in revenue due to the weakened economy (even if you're export-led the latest analysis indicates in most cases the weak pound is likely to be overridden by weakened demand and heightened import costs) but it's unlikely to materially affect your livelihood.

I agree that the political situation is Dire, the reason for this is the lack of backbone in the political establishment. I, wrongly assumed, that after a leave vote the government would do absolutely everything if could to secure high level trade and finacial agreements around the world, to stand resolute and strong in the face of the challenges ahead.

You make a good point. There are lots of good reasons to dislike the EU - my decision to stay was not only a personal but a practical one. The promises that were made to you (and other people voting Leave) just aren't going to be fulfilled. They were never possible. According to law professors leaving the EU is a challenge of "incomparable challenge and depth", dwarving any previous breakup or decolonialisation of a sovereign country.

Let's break it down.

Free Trade

- Free trade agreements within the EU are unlikely to happen without freedom of movement and payment into the EU budget (BTW the Switzerland and Norway models were already under pressure - and they have to accept a lot of rules without even getting to vote on them!)
- Any trade deal with the EU requires national ratification giving a veto to every single EU country (all the way down to the assembly for the 76,000 strong German-speaking community of Belgium!)
- Britain outside the EEA will also have to renegotiate or reconfirm a web of EU-negotiated free trade deals with dozens of countries that anchor the UK in world commerce but are not automatically inherited if it leaves - the cost of this will be vast and has been estimated to be likely to take well over 10 years, far longer than the timeframe for leaving the EU
- Oh and the UK hardly has any skilled trade negotiators because they were all European

EU Law

- EU-related law makes up at least a sixth of the UK statute book - and is signed into law
- There are also over 10,000 EU regulations with direct effect covering everything from bank and consumer rules to food standards, which cease to apply the moment Britain leaves.
- A good chance to clean the stature book? Maybe but the cost is vast and will take decades. Nothing will change any time soon.
- Many of the direct EU regulations will disappear overnight and people will wonder why they can't claim money back from their bank, get their flight refunded, why food standards have dropped, why advertising is suddenly worse etc

Cost of the EU

- Statistics given for the net cost of EU membership were not true - they are roughly £135m/week not £350m/week as the Leave statistics both weren't accurate and didn't take into account incoming funds (see the rapidly withdrawn "money for NHS pledge")
- Net cost of EU membership would be overwhelmed by even a 0.5% drop in GDP - this year GDP growth has been estimated to drop from 2% to 0.2% as a direct result of Brexit (even though nothing will have happened yet!)

Immigration

- Immigration is unlikely to drop to the promised level (to 10,000s from 330,000/year - promise already withdrawn) - people are NOT going to be happy about this
- Any drop will result in huge damage to the livelihood of those EU members who have made their homes here and contribute far more taxes than they take in welfare
- Those who are most likely to leave are those without families - the young and skilled who don't draw upon the state

Economy

- I'm not even going to get started on this one! Briefly, long term estimates from respectable financial institutions have estimated the medium term cost as being between 4-8% of GDP. We're likely to see a drop of about 2% just this year.

It was never made clear to you what the real consequences of leaving were, what it really meant. And now you are aghast at the lack of planning and the real consequences, but hope that it won't affect you or people you care about too badly. I understand.

Where has this child picked up the idea that ethnic minorities or those from other countries will have to go home. I have a whole gang of Eastern European friends who i train with, most with families and none of them seem to hold this sentiment. We chatted about it the other night and they were confident that they would be able to remain in the country, as am I. Its a real shame that in some circles this idea is so pervasive.

No-one knows (and you're assuming competence and humanity on the part of the new wave of politicians). Given how central immigration was to the Leave campaign, it is unlikely to be "business as usual" unless the EU strong-arms the UK into accepting significant freedom of movement in return for access to the EEA.

- There is no legal guarantee on acquired rights once Britain leaves the EU
- It is quite likely that documentary proof of right of residence or a points system will apply to incoming - or even current - residents
- If this is anything along the lines of the existing Tier 2 system for non-EU residents, then claiming residency will be very difficult if you have any significant time outside the country (such as travelling!) or if you fail to keep documentary paperwork such as P60s

Whatever arrangements are inflicted on the 3 million EU members in the UK are likely to be reflected on the 1.2 million UK citizens in the EU. I have family with a business in Germany - they have no idea what is going to happen either.

Ironically, in order to secure access to the EU single market the immigration promises are likely to be watered down very significantly. There likes hope.

This is the most likely of the positive scenarios - Let's call it "EEA Minus":

- UK will negotiate some variation on the standard EEA agreement where they have a little less access to the markets and a little more control over immigration
- UK will have to accept legislation from Brussels without being able to vote on it
- Immigration won't drop significantly - Leave voters will be furious
- Existing EU law will remain - maybe a couple of trivial changes will be made for publicity to show that "something is being done"
- Existing EU direct regulations will either remain or be signed into national law

Minimising the damage but with cost and uncertainly and delivering neither the control or the immigration reform that Leave voters wanted.

Wish you all an easier time that you think you will have. Hopefully if our political classes sort themselves out it will help the country as a whole feel hopeful again. Think i will head off for a bit.

Me too - there are mountains outside my window that are asking to be climbed. After that I think I will leave the mountains and head down to the beach for a bit

Matthew

[Steve James]

The result of the referendum illustrates that the "will of the people" is divided, almost equally afa it was concerned.

Internal social issues aside, the UK will have to negotiate agreements with the EU. I was watching Farage at the EU meeting, and it seems as if he was trying to antagonize them more than find reconciliation.

[GrahamB]

Did somebody say Boris?

This photo should follow him for the rest of his career.

[Dmitri]

Pink Floyd & Alan Parker already envisioned one of the possible solutions to all these problems, years ago...



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8urkDqSoc54