the rum soaked fist: internal martial arts forum

Michael,

The US presence in Syria is largely to support the Kurds with a liberal helping of anti-Assad support along with acting as a trip wire on containing the ISIS a-holes from spilling over elsewhere.

What is happening there right now is essentially a four way cluster fuck between ISIS, the Syrian Sunnis/tribals, the various ethnic minority groups (Alawites, Druze, Christians, etc) and the Kurds.

The driving factor behind all of this are the Syrian Sunnis who are some of the most batshit crazy Sunnis in the Arab world. They are, largely, supporters of ISIS as well. This bunch of jerks was attacking the UN compounds in Syria pre-war on terror periodically. And, they have been clear that given the chance they will slaughter every ethnic/religious minority group in Syria. The Sunni Arabs make up about 60-65% of the population. Which is why democracy can't work there without dividing the country.

If you did divide the country, you would end up with a landlocked ISIS supporting Sunni state on the border of Iraq, which no one including the Iraqis wants.

Essentially, both the Russians and the US are there to keep the problem from growing beyond the borders of Syria. The difference is the Russians support the Alawites and the US does not.

The truth is no happy ending exists to this scenario. If Assad falls, the minority groups get slaughtered by the Sunnis. If Assad wins, he slaughters all of the opposition Sunnis he can. If Syria falls apart it becomes an ISIS supporting no man's land.

At this point, I think everyone involved is just trying to keep the problem from expanding beyond its current borders.

Very interesting.

Good post PD.

IS's version of Sunni Islam is basically a strict version of Saudi's Wahhabism.

The whole reason Osama declared war on the US was because he did not agree with a USAF base in Saudi. 9-11 happened an attack which the US and W knew was coming, it happened and W closed the Sultan AF base.

And still the Saudis are considered US allies. Meanwhile the Saudi/US alliance is completely destroying Yemen. Again all war is based on lies.

The Russians are using Syria to flex their muscles and use/sell their latest weapons while the US is in bed with the Wahhabis, whose own country is basically IS but not our "IS."

The only difference between Assad, the Saudis and IS is that IS isn't willing to sell their souls to foreign governments thus governments want to klll them.

Michael wrote:Well, scuse me, but Trump was the one who cared more than the, erm, previous administration. If nothing else, Pence taking the father of the AMERICAN boy the DPNRK tortured to the edge of death and then kept alive for a year in order to extend his suffering, well Pence taking his father to the Korean Winter Olympics, while members of the US team lied about Pence out of ignorance, isn't that just lovely.

Speaking of Pence, North and South Korea will have talks and guess who is not invited?

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... -for-talks

NKorea, meh, I remember during the campaign when the Russian ambassador said that a new Cold War, at least, and maybe WW 3, was likely if Clinton were elected. Um, and now Putin is talking about Russia's ability to evade US anti-missile defense. Wow, did I miss something? Are we really less concerned with a nuclear war now? Mm .. okay.

If a nuclear happens or doesn't happen there in nothing I can do about it so I don't worry about that.

I was just pointing out that Pence was sent to Korea to have talks with North Korea but American arrogance got the best of him and he failed.

grzegorz wrote:If a nuclear happens or doesn't happen there in nothing I can do about it so I don't worry about that.

I was just pointing out that Pence was sent to Korea to have talks with North Korea but American arrogance got the best of him and he failed.

You should not say a diplomatic mission has failed before you know its purpose.

Nah, I'm just filing it away as another reason to smirk when they call people threats to national security. I'm not worried about a nuclear war. I've learned to love the bomb.

Diplomacy is an alternative to warfare. As long as there's no fighting, it's working. Saying that diplomacy is working now as opposed to before is okay, but meaningless. Citizens don't really care why they're not being bombed or sending their children to war.

grzegorz wrote:IS's version of Sunni Islam is basically a strict version of Saudi's Wahhabism.

The Russians are using Syria to flex their muscles and use/sell their latest weapons while the US is in bed with the Wahhabis, whose own country is basically IS but not our "IS."

The only difference between Assad, the Saudis and IS is that IS isn't willing to sell their souls to foreign governments thus governments want to klll them.

Would there be a difference if Assad's govt. were in control of Syria compared to IS?

My whole premise for preferring Russia's foreign policy in Syria to USA/NATO is that I think the people in Syria are better off with the Assad govt. compared to IS, and I think what happened in Libya and Iraq support this.

Would there be a difference if Assad's govt. were in control of Syria compared to IS?

Assad's gov't has been in control of Syria since the 70s. It's possible to ask which is worse, IS or the Assad regime. But, the US criticized the Assad regime before the rise of IS. There was always a rebel movement because of the complicated ethno-religious-politics of the area. The old "enemy of my enemy is my friend" system takes hold. It just might be an irreparable shit show because of it. Would a dictator solve the problem? That's what many of the region's strongmen are, anyway.

Imo, there's no political solution that can be imposed from outside, by Russia or anyone else. Keeping Assad in power will work if he can repress all the rebel groups; but, repression just causes more rebellion. It becomes a vicious cycle where using chemical weapons becomes something the warring parties will consider.

IS will probably not survive because, unlike the Taliban, it's not a political party that can coexist with others. Too many burnt bridges. Neither Russia, the US, or Turkey will allow an IS gov't to exist, regardless of Assad's fate.

Yeah, I was just curious if Greg thought there was a preferred situation.

Michael wrote:Yeah, I was just curious if Greg thought there was a preferred situation.

We discussed all this before on the Russians thread.

But since you don't have an issue with barrel bombs unless they are dropped by the Chinese on Xin Jiang or by Americans on Waco I really have nothing else to discuss because to me it is all the same crap.

From 2013 posted by me before and still true today.

https://youtu.be/lW0HP7Xd2rs

klonk wrote:

grzegorz wrote:If a nuclear happens or doesn't happen there in nothing I can do about it so I don't worry about that.

I was just pointing out that Pence was sent to Korea to have talks with North Korea but American arrogance got the best of him and he failed.

You should not say a diplomatic mission has failed before you know its purpose.

Klonk,

The only reason why anyone pays North Korea a half a dam is because they have nukes.

Why would they give up their nukes and go back to just being another starving nation?

Nuke are the tiger's teeth. Take away the teeth and North Korea has nothing. Pence mad dogging the Norks did nothing for nobody because Kim will never give up their nukes and their nukes are the only thing preventing that Chump from trying to do a "bloody nose" military attack which he has requested a few times.

https://youtu.be/HFZFAACN40w

59 tomahawks to quiet airstrip in Syria may sound good but for many Koreans and Americans in South Korea it will the end.

NK has nukes because the Chinese want them to. The commander of the Asian theater after WW2 considered China a threat and proposed nuking it. That's why he was recalled. The Chinese don't want a US ally on their border. Neither do the Russians. So, NK plays a strategic role in maintaining a balance. Otoh, the South used to think the threat was another invasion by the North. Consequently, the South depended on its nuclear ally-- who wanted to stop the spread of communism.

Vietnam unified. Germany unified. Who knows. But, the Kim's are a dynasty, and it might not be possible for leadership to be shared with a god. What's sure is that the fantastically successful South does not want another war. The fact that the two nations are talking at all is positive.

Yes, I have always stated that Trump was completely wrong in the belief that he could outsource the dilemma to the PRC because the PRC has no interest in taking on North Korea and also an unstable North Korea will mean a millions North Koreans fleeing to China which the Chinese don't want to deal with either.

Now Xi will be there for life and Trump will be gone and the Chinese will continue to fake interests and Pence will try to run for president.