The Reality presidency you're fired

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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby grzegorz on Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:10 am

Of course some politicians are better than others but Ryan is the worse of the worst.

Deficit hawk? Right, right...
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby Steve James on Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:45 am

Deficit hawk? Right, right..


He was hawkish on the deficit, because it was equated to spending on "social" programs and "entitlements." Leaving now prevents him from the fallout that will come when it's argued that it's a crisis and those programs are cut.
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby Steve James on Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:18 pm

The Congressional Budget Office confirmed on Monday what many Americans and all politicians already know: The United States is in a deeply precarious fiscal position.

In just one short year, our budget deficit has ballooned by over $1 trillion; by 2028 the accumulated debt is expected to roughly match the size of the economy. If our oversized public debt explodes into a full-blown crisis, no one can say we weren't warned.

The debt overhang will have real impacts on Americans—imposing higher borrowing costs, changing retirement as we know it and slowing the rate of growth. The plausible options for fixing the situation are diminishing, but fixing it should be a first-order policy priority.

The CBO's worrisome 10-year outlook underscores the severity of the situation and reveals three areas of major concern.

Budget cuts: One plausible solution to the fiscal imbalance-budget cuts-is already dead. The Budget Control Act of 2011 put "non-military discretionary spending"—a category that basically encompasses everything but large social insurance programs and defense— on a path to the lowest levels we have ever seen. Further cuts are off-the-table as a deficit-reduction strategy, as substantially lower levels would effectively mean the death of public investment.
Health care spending: Long-term debt is closely tied to economy-wide health care costs, and by eliminating the individual mandate, Congress just undercut one of the most-effective strategies for holding down health spending—incentives to encourage more families to purchase insurance. In a 2014 paper
I wrote with colleagues Alan Auerbach and William Gale, we projected that public debt in 2040 would grow to about 120 percent of GDP if health costs are kept in check and about 190 percent of GDP if they aren't. In other words, a fiscal crisis is all but guaranteed if we can't constrain cost growth in health care.

Tax changes: The combination of cumulative cuts to the IRS budget and an economy increasingly reliant on independent contractors could foster a culture of evasion. IRS audit rates have fallen by about one-third over the past five years. At the same time, many expect workers to increasingly shift their income towards pass-through entities like partnerships and sole proprietorships, which historically have much higher evasion rates than employer-based pay. The combination could further depress tax receipts.
These concerns all exacerbate the fundamental problem with our fiscal dilemma: a structural mismatch between revenues and outlays. When the government consistently runs deficits in excess of 4 percent of GDP deficit during the height of an economic expansion, policymakers are pretty much begging for a fiscal crisis. This imbalance will eventually impact millions.

Here's who will feel the most pain:

(1) First up is any American hoping to borrow. Homebuyers seeking a mortgage. Students borrowing for tuition. Entrepreneurs looking for a small business loan. The 10-year Treasury bill rate has already risen by about 40 basis points this year alone, and earlier this week JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said it could rise by another 120 basis points by year's end.

(2) The second group facing a bleak future? Retirees. With the ink barely dry on a budget-busting $1.5 trillion tax cut, a group of conservative economists recently proposed entitlement cuts to right the fiscal ship—calls from policymakers are soon to follow.

But there is simply no way to substantially cut these programs without forcing American seniors to work longer and pay more out-of-pocket for health care. If the cost to last year's corporate tax cut was losing an extra year or two of retirement, Americans should have been presented with an honest choice when the tax bill was passed back in December.

The third casualty affects everyone: future growth. Whether by financial crisis, higher interest rates, or severed spending on public investment, these massive deficits will be a drag on economic growth one way or another. And when the next recession comes (and it will), we may not be able to stimulate our way out of it. America found its way out of the Great Recession in large part through tax rebates and infrastructure spending—these options may not be available if excessive debt is the cause of the slowdown in the first place.

There are plausible exit strategies. Cutting tax expenditures like stepped-up basis or untargeted incentives for retirement saving have long stood as a possible savior to our budget woes. Budget commissions of all stripes have recommended cutting these expenditures as a way to lower the debt, and eventually Congress just might listen.

(3) A second option is one that almost no one talks about: collecting more of the taxes that are owed by taxpayers. Tax evasion costs the Treasury around $400 billion a year, which ultimately amounts to a massive tax on honest taxpaying. Our budget troubles would be solved in a day if tax evaders simply paid their fair share.

In the end, it's impossible to know how this fiscal imbalance will play out. But at least two things are clear One, the problem got a whole lot worse over the past year. And two, we are not finding our way out of this mess any time soon.


Re: #1, Congress has been busy removing bank regulations that affect consumers while interest rates go up.

Re:#2, I think the calls to cut social security benefits will come as soon as a crisis is declared.

Re:#3, we have politicians who brag about avoiding taxes, and won't show their returns. Corporations end up paying zero taxes, while smaller businesses complain about their tax burdens. At any rate, if anyone suggests raising taxes, he'll be accused of being a socialist or just a liberal who tries to solve problems by throwing money at them. Of course, the head of the EPA needs a security detail and wants an armored limousine, while the head of the other offices order $30K tables. Ok, one $30K table. Yep, reducing the size of government is a good thing. It leaves lots of funds to use for better purposes, like ....
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby grzegorz on Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:06 pm

Steve James wrote:
Deficit hawk? Right, right..


He was hawkish on the deficit, because it was equated to spending on "social" programs and "entitlements." Leaving now prevents him from the fallout that will come when it's argued that it's a crisis and those programs are cut.


Exactly!

grzegorz wrote:Image
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby grzegorz on Wed Apr 11, 2018 11:15 pm

Paul Ryan Says He’s Been “Dreaming” of Cutting Medicaid Since He Was in College


https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/03 ... n-medicaid

From a year ago but proves my point.
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby Steve James on Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:23 am

The ironic thing is that it's the people in the reddest parts of the country who will be hurt the most. I understand why they feel invisible --when there are people in MS, AL, GA, and the Appalachians who have polluted water, but they only see Flint in the media. Yeah, they're being screwed; but, they've been trained to blame the people in the cities and the media. When it comes to entitlement programs, it's the people in the poorest parts of the country who benefit most. But, they're told that immigrants come and get health care, housing, and employment support --while they're not raping and murdering.

They're all distractions that, as you point out, serves to turn the poor on the poor while the wealthy get wealthier. And, that's not to mention the "White" myth. I.e., averaging out all "White" wealth to make it seem like "White" people are doing well, as in "the average White family's wealth is $XXX" while the average Black/Latino/Asian/etc family's wealth is "$YYY." The family in W.VA looks around and says "WTF," and has to find the reason they and their whole county are being held back.

That's why I wish that DT's/GOP economic policies would actually work. As they say, a rising tide lifts all boats; but, people in the same boat all go down if it sinks.
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby Steve James on Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:15 am

Well, well, "quelle sourprize."
Subprime mortgages are back with a new name and soaring demand

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realest ... li=BBnbfcN

Deja vu.
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby KEND on Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:31 pm

China and NK playing a deep game. If they concede a pawn and shelve their nukes dt will have a great triumph, stay in the WH and continue to wreak havoc in the USA, even his close aides are doubting his ability to deal with the crises he created. Will his lawyer turn or fall on his sword. Tune in for the next dramatic episode on fox news.
Even Sessions is aware of the rule of law. Attorney General Jeff Sessions recently told the White House he might have to leave his job if President Trump fired his deputy, Rod J. Rosenstein, who oversees the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, according to people familiar with the exchange Sessions made his position known in a phone call to White House counsel Donald McGahn last weekend, as Trump’s fury at Rosenstein peaked after the deputy attorney general approved the FBI’s raid April 9 on the president’s personal attorney Michael Cohen. Sessions’s message to the White House, which has not previously been reported, underscores the political firestorm that Trump would invite should he attempt to remove the deputy attorney general. While Trump also has railed against Sessions at times, the protest resignation of an attorney general — which would be likely to incite other departures within the administration — would create a moment of profound crisis for the White House
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby windwalker on Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:05 pm

KEND wrote:China and NK playing a deep game. If they concede a pawn and shelve their nukes dt will have a great triumph, stay in the WH and continue to wreak havoc in the USA, even his close aides are doubting his ability to deal with the crises he created.


Wow, so if he succeeds he fails, if he doesn't he fails...and "your" solution is?
Can you articulate this "crises" refering to the NK situation?
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby Steve James on Sat Apr 21, 2018 10:34 am

Naw, it won't be a failure if NK gives up its nuclear program. However, that doesn't change the fact that the situation is a proxy war. NK is not a threat to the US. The people with skin in the game are the SKoreans and the Japanese. NK has the largest conventional army in the region; so, the threat to them doesn't necessarily change. Iinm, the SKoreans used to prepare for an invasion from the North, not a nuclear strike.

Anyway, no nukes in the North is a good thing. Otoh, I doubt that Kim isn't getting something in return. In all the back patting about a possible success, no one is asking what the US is giving in return. Two; suppose Kim goes back on his word --since Trump has backed out of numerous treaties and agreements, there's no reason Kim wouldn't think that he would do it again. In either case, what happens then? Would there be more negotiations or will we start bombing? Would any country --including S Korea-- or the UN approve of an attack because negotiations fail?

Ya see, I want to know why Kim wants to deal. What's the carrot at the end of the stick? Will we just be turning Kim into the 2nd richest politician in the world? Trump's success = Kim's success.
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby Trick on Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:47 pm

Maybe US flag and baseball caps soon to be "Made in NK"
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby KEND on Thu May 03, 2018 5:18 pm

The rats chewing each other up
The Atlantic
A Pruitt Aide's Attack on Zinke Angers the White House
As Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt faces a seemingly endless stream of scandal, his team is scrambling to divert the spotlight to Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke. And the White House isn’t happy about it.
In the last week, a member of Pruitt’s press team, Michael Abboud, has been shopping negative stories about Zinke to multiple outlets, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the efforts, as well as correspondence reviewed by The Atlantic.
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby Steve James on Thu May 03, 2018 5:56 pm

"The rats chewing each other up."

Don't you remember Silva's "rat story" in Skyfall? It illustrates the nature of the rat perfectly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yI1hjITn8Q
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby KEND on Fri Jul 13, 2018 6:57 pm

Russian indictments exquisite timing
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Re: The Reality presidency you're fired

Postby Michael on Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:19 pm

The absence of any Americans or connection to Trump or his campaign in those indictments, as well as the same lack of connection with the previous indictments of the 13 roosky sock puppeteers, could mean a lengthy and broad investigation has failed its original purpose.
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