North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby windwalker on Wed May 02, 2018 7:14 pm

Ian C. Kuzushi wrote:Some good info on the situation and background (both the progressive and conservative experts agree that Trump is not the primary actor or factor):

https://chicagotonight.wttw.com/2018/05 ... im-jong-un


I don’t think it’s because of South Korean or U.S. actions,” Friedhoff said. “They have their own calculus going on, and we need to think very carefully about what that calculus is and what it means for their negotiating position.”


Interesting article doesn't really seem to attribute much to president Trump other than the selection site for the negotiation.

I think the credible threat of military action had a lot to do with the present timing of the negotiations.

They say complete denuclearization is not an option but it seems to be one of the main points that they've already agreed to and one that the administration will insist on.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby Steve James on Wed May 02, 2018 7:44 pm

I think the credible threat of military action had a lot to do with the present timing of the negotiations.


And, Kim's primary demand is that the US will not invade or take military action against N. Korea. For that, he gives up trying to develop a nuclear missile capable of reaching US territories. Fair enough for him.

Otoh, let's say Kim is capitulating to the real threat of a war on the peninsula. Seems like a smart move, especially for the people on the peninsula who are actually at risk. Congratulate Trump if you like, the presidents before him since Eisenhower thought it was too great a risk.

But, the problem with NKorea, we've been told, is that it is the world's most repressive regime; and that Kim is a madman who would commit national suicide. So, it's true that Trump might have bombed Pyongyang. If so, it was the perfect time for Kim to negotiate with S. Korea. By doing so, even if he meets with Trump, he moves the US out of the equation. China gets what it wants too.. Everybody's happy.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Thu May 03, 2018 12:10 am

windwalker wrote:
Ian C. Kuzushi wrote:Some good info on the situation and background (both the progressive and conservative experts agree that Trump is not the primary actor or factor):

https://chicagotonight.wttw.com/2018/05 ... im-jong-un


I don’t think it’s because of South Korean or U.S. actions,” Friedhoff said. “They have their own calculus going on, and we need to think very carefully about what that calculus is and what it means for their negotiating position.”


Interesting article doesn't really seem to attribute much to president Trump other than the selection site for the negotiation.

I think the credible threat of military action had a lot to do with the present timing of the negotiations.

They say complete denuclearization is not an option but it seems to be one of the main points that they've already agreed to and one that the administration will insist on.


Of course Trump has been a factor, but both of these experts (who generally seem not to agree and have very different views on North Korea) make it clear that they feel Trump was not a bigger factor than South Korean overtures and/or North Korean agency. This jives with my own opinion: Trump was indeed a factor, but it was because he is such a distracted mess that his effective absence and lack of consistency enabled the Koreas to work together without the meddling of another conservative administration.

Also: https://www.axios.com/north-korea-ameri ... d1b86.html

Now, let's see if Trump can avoid fucking this up. I'm skeptical. As you point out, he is making (unreasonable) demands.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby windwalker on Thu May 03, 2018 12:24 am

Ian C. Kuzushi wrote:
Of course Trump has been a factor, but both of these experts (who generally seem not to agree and have very different views on North Korea) make it clear that they feel Trump was not a bigger factor than South Korean overtures and/or North Korean agency. must have missed that, can you specifically quote this. This jives with my own opinion: Trump was indeed a factor, but it was because he is such a distracted mess that his effective absence and lack of consistency enabled the Koreas to work together without the meddling of another conservative administration. Seems like most world leaders of those involved do not share this opinion, I agree with them that he was the causative agent. .

Also: https://www.axios.com/north-korea-ameri ... d1b86.html

Now, let's see if Trump can avoid fucking this up. I'm skeptical. As you point out, he is making (unreasonable) demands.


The demands made were clear and up front, "denuclearization"
NK has already agreed in principal to them. The details of how this is done, time frame, and actions taken by the US to be worked out along with the bigger
picture of unification or at least ending the armistice and signing a formal peace treaty.

They've been close to this before under different US administrations, the difference this time, is that NK did not present a credibly threat to the US...Now they do, one that can not be ignored. the can has run out of road....to be kicked down.

Odd how he gets no credit for being the agent that caused this to come about but will be assigned the blame should it "fuck" up as you say.



carry on...
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Thu May 03, 2018 12:34 am

windwalker wrote:
Ian C. Kuzushi wrote:
Of course Trump has been a factor, but both of these experts (who generally seem not to agree and have very different views on North Korea) make it clear that they feel Trump was not a bigger factor than South Korean overtures and/or North Korean agency. must have missed that, can you specifically quote this. This jives with my own opinion: Trump was indeed a factor, but it was because he is such a distracted mess that his effective absence and lack of consistency enabled the Koreas to work together without the meddling of another conservative administration. Seems like most world leaders of those involved do not share this opinion, I agree with them that he was the causative agent. .

Also: https://www.axios.com/north-korea-ameri ... d1b86.html

Now, let's see if Trump can avoid fucking this up. I'm skeptical. As you point out, he is making (unreasonable) demands.


The demands made were clear "denuclearization" and up front,
NK has already agreed in principal to them. The details of how this is done, time frame, and actions taken by the US to be worked out along with the bigger
picture of unification or at least ending the armistice and signing a formal peace treaty.

They've been close to this before under different US administrations, the difference this time, is that NK did not present a credibly threat to the US...Now they do, one that can not be ignored. the can has run out of road....to be kicked down.

Odd how he gets no credit for being the agent that caused this to come about but will be assigned the blame should it "fuck" up as you say.



carry on...


Demands coming "upfront" does not make them reasonable.

Yes, we have been this close before, under Clinton.

What, specifically, do you think North Korea has agreed to? What is meant by "denuclearization?" To the Norks it could mean halting production and research. That's probably not what Trump means. That's a problem, and there is no reason to think that Nork would give up their capabilities. I wouldn't. And, as Professor Cumings points out, there really is no such thing as a full "denuclearization" at this point. They have the technology and a shared border with China.

Odd that you think I said Trump "gets no credit" as I said that he did, just not the lion's share. And, if he blows the deal up, he get's the blame. I'm not making predictions.

You have a very parochial view of a part of the world pretty far away.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby windwalker on Thu May 03, 2018 12:58 am

Ian C. Kuzushi wrote:


Demands coming "upfront" does not make them reasonable.

Yes, we have been this close before, under Clinton.

What, specifically, do you think North Korea has agreed to? What is meant by "denuclearization?"

“The North side clearly affirmed its commitment to the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula and said it would have no reason to possess nuclear weapons should the safety of its regime be guaranteed and military threats against North Korea removed,” a South Korean presidential spokesman said, according to the Yonhap news agency. "

Seems pretty clear to me.



To the Norks it could mean halting production and research. That's probably not what Trump means. That's a problem, and there is no reason to think that Nork would give up their capabilities. I wouldn't. And, as Professor Cumings points out, there really is no such thing as a full "denuclearization" at this point. They have the technology and a shared border with China. The North side clearly affirmed its commitment to the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula

Odd that you think I said Trump "gets no credit" as I said that he did, just not the lion's share. And, if he blows the deal up, he get's the blame. I'm not making predictions.

You have a very parochial view of a part of the world pretty far away.


The administration has already made it quite clear that its not a done deal.
What is not clear is what happens if its not. This alone makes the stakes quite high.

You have a view point, I have a view point.

I've lived in that part of world, my daughters have relatives still there.
My hope is for the best, understanding that it may not come to be.


The difference this time is the causative agent, and that they've achieved their stated goal.
Maybe not understanding that they've run out of road or that this administration is quite different
from past administrations.

hope it works, out
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Thu May 03, 2018 1:06 am

The administration has already made it quite clear that its not a done deal.
What is not clear is what happens if its not. This alone makes the stakes quite high.

hope it works, out


Well, I think that when it comes to the most important issues, we are in agreement. I very much hope they succeed.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby Steve James on Thu May 03, 2018 4:56 am

Well, if there had been a war, Trump would have blamed Kim. Now, if there's peace, Trump will want the credit. But, if the peace doesn't come, we can't blame Trump.

Kim is the causative agent. He's the one whose credible threat caused Trump's reaction. Ya say so all the time. Kim is the one (possibly) making concessions for peace.

Now, if Kim releases those he's kidnapped and imprisoned, that may be a sign that the regime has changed. But, it's all gravy for the North is he does.

Release of Americans held in North Korea 'imminent,' source says

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/re ... li=BBnb7Kz
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby windwalker on Thu May 03, 2018 5:13 am

Steve James wrote:Well, if there had been a war, Trump would have blamed Kim. Now, if there's peace, Trump will want the credit. But, if the peace doesn't come, we can't blame Trump.

Kim is the causative agent. He's the one whose credible threat caused Trump's reaction. Ya say so all the time. Kim is the one (possibly) making concessions for peace.
Now, if Kim releases those he's kidnapped and imprisoned, that may be a sign that the regime has chan



Another precondition met.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YXiqjSio7s
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby Steve James on Thu May 03, 2018 5:20 am

A precondition to what, exactly? If you know, or have mind read (:)), what other preconditions are there? And, are you saying that unless they're met, 1) Trump won't meet Kim or 2) that Trump will prevent unification or 3) that Trump will bomb Pyongyang? If you know, that would be interesting to talk about.

Kim's precondition is that the US promises not to invade.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby windwalker on Thu May 03, 2018 5:50 am

Steve James wrote:A precondition to what, exactly? If you know, or have mind read (:)), what other preconditions are there? And, are you saying that unless they're met, 1) Trump won't meet Kim or 2) that Trump will prevent unification or 3) that Trump will bomb Pyongyang? If you know, that would be interesting to talk about.

Kim's precondition is that the US promises not to invade. They have no preconditions for the meeting nor has the US agreed to any.
The meeting itself will determine future actions.


US President Donald Trump's condition for meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is that there be no nuclear or missile testing, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Sunday.

"There shouldn't be confusion," Mnuchin told NBC's Meet the Press when asked about White House press secretary Sarah Sanders' statement on Friday that there would be no meeting without concrete and verifiable actions by North Korea.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/trump ... 4z3w0.html

The clip posted shows the national security advisor calling for their release as part of precondition
or a way to show concrete actions taken. .

"If North Korea releases the detained Americans before the North-US summit,
it will be an opportunity to demonstrate their authenticity," John Bolton, Trump's national security advisor, told Fox News.

President Trump confirmed last week that his administration was in high-level talks with North Korea to secure the release of the Americans.

https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2018/ma ... e-released
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Thu May 03, 2018 9:31 am

Steve James wrote:Well, if there had been a war, Trump would have blamed Kim. Now, if there's peace, Trump will want the credit. But, if the peace doesn't come, we can't blame Trump.

Kim is the causative agent. He's the one whose credible threat caused Trump's reaction. Ya say so all the time. Kim is the one (possibly) making concessions for peace.

Now, if Kim releases those he's kidnapped and imprisoned, that may be a sign that the regime has changed. But, it's all gravy for the North is he does.

Release of Americans held in North Korea 'imminent,' source says

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/re ... li=BBnb7Kz


I couldn't disagree more, and you seem to be ignorant of the history. If Trump declares war on North Korea it is North Korea's fault? Hmm, and are you up on the early governments of South Korea? US puppets (edit: and dictators until very recently) used to maintain a proxy war. The North Korean regime is problematic, but why? They were far more wealthy and had a higher standard of living before US sanctions and increased involvement. Like I said before: Cold War mindset.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby Steve James on Thu May 03, 2018 10:58 am

I couldn't disagree more, and you seem to be ignorant of the history. If Trump declares war on North Korea it is North Korea's fault?


You took the point backwards. My point was that Kim was blamed for the tensions because he was a madman and there was a "credible threat" (so they say) that he would attack the US. So, Trump threatened military action. I.e., if Kim didn't denuclearize. Long story short. If it works out, Trump will say it's because of him. If it doesn't, it'll be back to Kim's fault.

Anyway, Windy, first you wrote:

Another precondition met.


I.e., "another" (meaning more than one) precondition that Trump wanted was met. It has to be read that way, and that's exactly why you posted it. But, the truth is that you had (I'm careful with my verbs) NO idea about it. You were just congratulating Trump. How do I know? Because in your next post, you wrote:

They [meaning neither Kim, nor Trump] have no preconditions for the meeting nor has the US agreed to any. The meeting itself will determine future actions.


But,if you believe that, then we can agree that nobody deserves credit. However, the talk of Nobel Peace Prize is a bit premature grandstanding. Typical.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby windwalker on Thu May 03, 2018 12:39 pm

Steve James wrote:
Anyway, Windy, first you wrote:

Another precondition met.


I.e., "another" (meaning more than one) precondition that Trump wanted was met. It has to be read that way, and that's exactly why you posted it. But, the truth is that you had (I'm careful with my verbs) NO idea about it. There may even be more, it was listed as something that was suggested to be a precondition and was met.You were just congratulating Trump. How do I know? Because in your next post, you wrote:

They [meaning neither Kim, nor Trump] have no preconditions for the meeting nor has the US agreed to any. The meeting itself will determine future actions.


Ya might want to include the context:

"steve james:
Kim's precondition is that the US promises not to invade.

windwalker :They [meaning N-korea] have no preconditions for the meeting nor has the US agreed to any. The meeting itself will determine future actions.



But,if you believe that, then we can agree that nobody deserves credit. However, the talk of Nobel Peace Prize is a bit premature grandstanding. Typical.


Its not a matter of belief, the N Koreans have not stuplated any type of condition for the meeting to take place. There is no promise of anything all sanctions remain in place, the US has set the conditions for a meeting to take place so far the N Koreans seem to be meeting them.

The talk of the Noble Peace Prize, AFAIK was not instigated by the president.

Now, the historic summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un alone has the makings of a peace prize-worthy effort, because it effectively ended a war that had been frozen since the 1950s. But President Moon went out of his way to give credit to Trump for setting the stage for the meeting.

"President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize. All we need is to bring peace," Moon said, according to the Blue House, Seoul's equivalent of the White House.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/ ... 566161002/

Panicky pundits fretted about the possibility (if not certainty) of open war breaking out with North Korea. But as the Romans said, si vis pacem, para bellum — if you want peace, prepare for war. A peace through strength strategy only works when the adversary knows you mean business. And Trump had a “bigger button.”


Most seem to suggest that even the thought of the meeting between the Koreas would never have happened on its own except for the efforts of this administration. The effort began as soon as Trump won the election. ...
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby windwalker on Thu May 03, 2018 1:12 pm

Ian C. Kuzushi wrote: US puppets (edit: and dictators until very recently) used to maintain a proxy war. The North Korean regime is problematic, but why? They were far more wealthy and had a higher standard of living before US sanctions and increased involvement. Like I said before: Cold War mindset.


Was in the Army stationed there during martial law. Park Chung-hee, was their president at that time.



Park Chung-hee (Korean pronunciation: [pak̚.t͈ɕʌŋ.ɦi] or [pak̚] [tɕʌŋ.ɦi]; 14 November 1917 – 26 October 1979) was a South Korean politician, general, and dictator who served as the President of South Korea from 1963 until his assassination in 1979, assuming that office after first ruling the country as head of a military junta installed by the May 16 coup in 1961.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park_Chung-hee

As I remember most of us felt we were keeping the South from invading the North while at the same time serving as trip wire insuring US involvement should anything happen. Their president was later assassinated, things got a little more tense. :-\

I ended up in Korea at the suggestion of some one while stationed in Germany , who said "if your looking for MA go to Korea" being young there were many things I didn't consider. What could go wrong. :P

Talks a little of the meeting between me and a n-mantis teacher who would later become a good friend and one of my teachers in my CMA journey

"Do you want to try your White Crane against my student? My first introduction on a hot, humid summer day in Korea to a style and teacher who had used his art during and after the Korean war."

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