Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby windwalker on Sun Jun 25, 2023 8:37 am

Bao wrote:
Steve James wrote: There's no evidence that Prigozhin is under house arrest. Belarus has/had given him citizenship.


True. But I don't think anyone believes he will be allowed to move freely and to do whatever he will. Some say that Belarus wants to use his knowledge and experience, as to train soldiers.

windwalker wrote: Interesting how the information realm is controlled


Lol! Who are you talking to? Higher up I quoted Russia Today. Everything I wrote on this subject is based on Russian sources. Can't really see no reason to read what western mainstream media has to distort.

[






I've already watched it. I almost always agree with him, but this time I am not totally sure... I thought it was funny how he said that Prigozhin's coup attempt was a gift to Russia, opposite from what Scott Ritter and others have said. Well, Col MacGregor is on George Galloway's MOATS this evening (7PM London PST, 11 AM PDT) https://www.youtube.com/@GeorgeGallowayOfficial/streams, it will be interesting to hear what he has to say.


main stream western media is corrupted, always was.
The US is using by labeling things miss information, censuring things as false narratives .
Being done through private enterprise is that it says it does not control ;)


Feel the new atlas channel presents some rather interesting analysis based on current information .
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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby Bao on Sun Jun 25, 2023 9:14 am

windwalker wrote:
main stream western media is corrupted, always was.
The US is using by labeling things miss information, censuring things as false narratives .
Being done through private enterprise is that it says it does not control ;)


Feel the new atlas channel presents some rather interesting analysis based on current information .



Agree 100% 8-)
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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby Steve James on Sun Jun 25, 2023 9:32 am

You should know the penalty for mutiny. It was a rhetorical question. They left their posts in Bakhmut, and returned to the bases they'd taken over. That would be considered desertion: that's a court martial offense. It doesn't matter which news service you choose to believe. Anyway, it's usually a matter of which interpretation of "news" one chooses to believe.

Hey Bao, if Prigozhin was under arrest of any sort, it'd be clear. However, that's not to say he's free. Many people believe that Putin cannot afford to let Prigozhin live, but not after a military trial. He'll just have an unfortunate accident. Otoh, Prigozhin founded the Wagner group. I'm betting he has body guards, not guards, who are loyal to him. His troops in Ukraine are needed. It'd be interesting to see what they do if he gets food poisoning, falls in the bathroom, or has a heart attack.
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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby windwalker on Sun Jun 25, 2023 10:00 am

Steve James wrote:You should know the penalty for mutiny. It was a rhetorical question. They left their posts in Bakhmut, and returned to the bases they'd taken over. That would be considered desertion: that's a court martial offense. It doesn't matter which news service you choose to believe. Anyway, it's usually a matter of which interpretation of "news" one chooses to believe.

In the US military Article 94 a court-martial offense.

Oddly enough :P

Lt. William “Rusty” Calley was charged for following orders.

Don't know how the Russian system works....

It was reported that the president presumably, the commander and chief of their military understanding the situation made allowances in accordance with the situation..



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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby windwalker on Sun Jun 25, 2023 10:11 am

aside note


The court found that “whether Calley was the most ignorant person in the United States Army in Vietnam or the most intelligent,” he would have to have known that it was illegal to slaughter civilians who were “demonstrably unable to defend themselves” and that the order was “palpably illegal.”

The court noted that, “For 100 years, it has been a settled rule of American law that even in war the summary killing of an enemy who has submitted … is murder.”



The US and its laws

the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Japan, devastating the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and killing more than 100,000 people.


Wonder if those that dropped the bombs understood the "law" or just followed orders :P
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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby Bao on Sun Jun 25, 2023 12:18 pm

Steve James wrote:Many people believe that Putin cannot afford to let Prigozhin live, but not after a military trial. He'll just have an unfortunate accident. Otoh, Prigozhin founded the Wagner group. I'm betting he has body guards, not guards, who are loyal to him. His troops in Ukraine are needed. It'd be interesting to see what they do if he gets food poisoning, falls in the bathroom, or has a heart attack.


Of course people believe Putin will kill Prigozhin. The same people that believe Putin is a madman who suddenly who just woke up one morning and decided to attack Ukraine. ::)

But of course, this mainstream media narrative painting Putin an erratic lunatic goes against the fact that Putin acts in a restrained manner and does not want to stir up necessary tensions or conflicts. Prigozhin and Wagner PMC are considered heroes, if something happened to Prigozhin, his fans and Putin's critics would immediately blame Putin. And besides, Prigozhin and Lukashenko are old friends. If the US/NATO/Ukraine don't see an opportunity to kill Prigozhin to stir up more problems, he will live.
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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby Steve James on Sun Jun 25, 2023 12:50 pm

So if he dies, it's the US/NATO/Ukraine, but he's in Belarus, not Russia. Seems to me that if he were a hero, he wouldn't have had to go into exile or house arrest.

Afa how Putin is portrayed, what he says is not as relevant as what he does or what happens. Prigozhin may indeed survive. I'm just saying if he dies unexpectedly, it's more than likely because of what he's done. Who has he helped or who has he hindered?

If Prigozhin lives or dies, it can always be attributed to the US/NATO/Ukraine just as easily.
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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby Steve James on Sun Jun 25, 2023 1:05 pm

Afa Calley, people should Google the My Lai Massacre for themselves. Afa the case, it has nothing to do with what the WG did. Well, except that the WG is known to have committed atrocities in Syria and Africa (where they have bases). They are not Russian military, and that's how they can function overseas.

The Wagner Group, a Kremlin-affiliated mercenary force, has been accused of committing war crimes, including rape, robbery of civilians, and torturing accused deserters, in conflicts around the world, including the civil wars in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, and Mali.1 Reports suggest that the group has targeted civilians, conducted mass executions, and looted private property in conflict zones.4 The United Nations Working Group on the use of mercenaries has publicly linked Wagner to atrocities committed in Mali, but their call for an investigation into the crimes is unlikely to yield significant results.34 A lack of witnesses, resistance from local regimes, poor infrastructure, and acute insecurity have made full investigation of claims difficult.0 Former Wagner member Azamat Uldarov was detained in April 2023 after publicly claiming that the group's fighters killed civilians in Ukraine.2


Fwiw. Army photographer's photo after My Lai (1968). One of the things that made me against the war.
Image
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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby Bao on Sun Jun 25, 2023 1:40 pm

Google? Maybe use Wikipedia?

Of course mainstream media will demonize Wagner PMC. Remember that Al Assad asked for Russia's help. When Wagner is fighting US backed ISIS in Syria to protect civilians it becomes more than just ridiculous to blame Wagner for atrocities. Also, as Ukraine have shelled civilians in Donbas on a daily basis since 2014 (the same people that Wagner has been fighting to protect) any accusation of Wagner PMC attacking civilians becomes nothing else than a whataboutism.
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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby Dmitri on Sun Jun 25, 2023 7:10 pm

wiesiek wrote:civil war in Russia - no, it will not happen.

That's my gut feeling also, but who really knows... Only time will tell. For a civil war, there need to be at least two opposing sides, and I'm not seeing a strong "other side" there, at least not one that'll be willing to take to the streets, organized and armed to a sufficient degree
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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby jimmy on Mon Jun 26, 2023 2:09 am

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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby Steve James on Mon Jun 26, 2023 3:52 am

Dmitri wrote:
wiesiek wrote:civil war in Russia - no, it will not happen.

That's my gut feeling also, but who really knows... Only time will tell. For a civil war, there need to be at least two opposing sides, and I'm not seeing a strong "other side" there, at least not one that'll be willing to take to the streets, organized and armed to a sufficient degree


Yep, nobody knows, but open civil war between two sides doesn't seem likely. It's probably more valid to ask if there'll be changes in political and military leadership.
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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby Steve James on Mon Jun 26, 2023 4:18 am

Bao wrote:Google? Maybe use Wikipedia?


Afa My Lai? , even YouTube. People should know.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnvTyMptOt8
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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby windwalker on Mon Jun 26, 2023 7:25 am



Attempted Wagner PMC coup prevented

On episode 35 of the show we are joined by Konstantin Dolgov, Russian politician serving as a senator from the Murmansk Oblast, Member of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.

From 1995 to 2000, Dolgov served as an advisor to Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the UN in New York. Between 2000 to 2004, he served as deputy director to the Department of International Organizations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.

He is also a former Commissioner of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law and Ambassador-at-Large of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
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Re: Anybody think there'll be open civil war in Russia?

Postby Steve James on Mon Jun 26, 2023 7:42 am

What did they say when NATO say stormed the Capitol?
But, yep, Putin did the right thing. I agree that it's crazy to think that Putin planned it (as some have said on FOX).
Doesn't seem like they like Prigozhin very much, and think he's a traitor.
I agree with them that no one in the west wanted to help Russia.

It's live, so I can't keep up.
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