The Great Filter solution to the Fermi Paradox

Rum, beer, movies, nice websites, gaming, etc., without interrupting the flow of martial threads.

The Great Filter solution to the Fermi Paradox

Postby everything on Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:49 pm

https://www.astronomy.com/science/the-g ... i-paradox/

Many hypotheses have been proposed to resolve the Fermi Paradox, but all of these remain unproven. And in the 1990s, another possible explanation for our apparent aloneness in the universe was formulated by Robin Hanson — a postulate that has become known as the Great Filter.

The hurdles to interplanetary life
Simply stated, the Great Filter says that intelligent interstellar lifeforms must first take many critical steps, and at least one of these steps must be highly improbable. Indeed, the premise of the Great Filter is that there’s at least one hurdle that is so high virtually no species can clear it and move on to the next. But while the term the Great Filter suggests the conscious action of some sort of exogenous entity, in reality, the hypothesis is more a way of thinking about the relative likelihood of certain events happening — or not happening — in their own natural course.

So, what basic hurdles must be cleared in order to become a truly advanced, spacefaring civilization? Hanson suggested a few, paraphrased below:

A planet capable of harboring life must form in a star’s habitable zone.
Life itself must develop on that planet.
Those lifeforms must be able to reproduce, using such molecules as DNA and RNA.
Simple cells (prokaryotes) must evolve into more complex cells (eukaryotes).
Multicellular organisms must develop.
Sexual reproduction, which greatly increases genetic diversity, must take hold.
Complex organisms capable of using tools must evolve.
Those organisms must create advanced technology needed for space colonization. (This is roughly where humans are today.)
The spacefaring species must go on to colonize other worlds and star systems, while avoiding destroying itself.


Has humanity passed The Great Filter?
If the Great Filter is behind us, though, it bodes well for humanity as a species; the universe may be ours for the taking. If, however, the Great Filter still lies ahead, we may be doomed.

On the bright side, some have interpreted our apparent aloneness in the universe as a good sign — a blessing even — as it indicates we’ve safely made it through the bottleneck. Strange as it may seem, we may be the first species to have passed through the Great Filter (after all, someone has to be first).

On the other hand, if we were to detect a signal from a super-advanced technological species that makes us look primitive, it might imply that the Great Filter still lies ahead. Humanity could be destined to take a surprise cosmic test, one that we don’t know what to study for.
amateur practices til gets right pro til can't get wrong
/ better approx answer to right q than exact answer to wrong q which can be made precise /
“most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. Source of all true art & science
User avatar
everything
Wuji
 
Posts: 8332
Joined: Tue May 13, 2008 7:22 pm
Location: USA

Re: The Great Filter solution to the Fermi Paradox

Postby everything on Wed Oct 11, 2023 8:56 pm

What are the chances that, if you get all the data you’d like and are able to process it in the way you envisage, that you’ll find something extraterrestrial?
The nearest stars are typically a billion years older than the sun or a billion years younger. So any extraterrestrial life form is probably a billion years less advanced than us or a billion years more advanced. A billion years less advanced, it’s bacteria. If it’s a billion years more advanced, I don’t think people can grapple with what they would be like. If you brought someone from 1,000 years ago to a street in New York, they’d be blown away.



https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/10 ... ideos.html
amateur practices til gets right pro til can't get wrong
/ better approx answer to right q than exact answer to wrong q which can be made precise /
“most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. Source of all true art & science
User avatar
everything
Wuji
 
Posts: 8332
Joined: Tue May 13, 2008 7:22 pm
Location: USA

Re: The Great Filter solution to the Fermi Paradox

Postby Steve James on Thu Oct 12, 2023 7:18 am

Ok, add to that filter that the advanced life forms don't use the technology they develop to destroy themselves. Not saying it's inevitable that they do, it's something absolutely necessary for them to avoid. Or that, any space traveling civilization will have avoided extinguishing itself. If all life is like us, does that make it more or less likely they'll reach us.

Otoh, if they have achieved it, they're not like us. They might therefore not even want to have anything to do with a species like us. And, what could we possibly offer them -since they'd solved all the problems of space travel that limits us.
"A man is rich when he has time and freewill. How he chooses to invest both will determine the return on his investment."
User avatar
Steve James
Great Old One
 
Posts: 21223
Joined: Tue May 13, 2008 8:20 am

Re: The Great Filter solution to the Fermi Paradox

Postby everything on Thu Oct 12, 2023 7:34 am

yup, if they are a billion years "ahead" and "driving" the "tic tac", we are surely just like goldfish in a bowl. not really that interesting. not a threat. not aware we "live in a bowl".

but from the fish's perspective, it's funny to think about.
amateur practices til gets right pro til can't get wrong
/ better approx answer to right q than exact answer to wrong q which can be made precise /
“most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. Source of all true art & science
User avatar
everything
Wuji
 
Posts: 8332
Joined: Tue May 13, 2008 7:22 pm
Location: USA

Re: The Great Filter solution to the Fermi Paradox

Postby origami_itto on Thu Oct 12, 2023 8:00 am

Y'all gotta check out 3 body.

I hear netflix is adapting it, but I have the chinese series if anybody is interested...
The form is the notes, the quan is the music
Free Tai Chi Classes |
Atomic Taijiquan|FB|YT|
Twitch
User avatar
origami_itto
Wuji
 
Posts: 5243
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:11 pm
Location: Palm Bay, FL

Re: The Great Filter solution to the Fermi Paradox

Postby everything on Thu Oct 12, 2023 9:10 pm

Adding to the list!
amateur practices til gets right pro til can't get wrong
/ better approx answer to right q than exact answer to wrong q which can be made precise /
“most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. Source of all true art & science
User avatar
everything
Wuji
 
Posts: 8332
Joined: Tue May 13, 2008 7:22 pm
Location: USA

Re: The Great Filter solution to the Fermi Paradox

Postby origami_itto on Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:08 am

everything wrote:Adding to the list!


3 body (San Ti) is the first book in a series

Remembrance of Earth's Past (Chinese: 地球往事; pinyin: Dìqiú Wǎngshì; lit. 'Earth's Past') is a science fiction series by Chinese writer Liu Cixin. The series is also popularly referred to as Three-Body from part of the title of its first novel, The Three-Body Problem (Chinese: 三体; pinyin: Sān Tǐ; lit. 'Three-Body').[2] The series details humanity's discovery of and preparation for an alien invasion force from the planet Trisolaris.
The form is the notes, the quan is the music
Free Tai Chi Classes |
Atomic Taijiquan|FB|YT|
Twitch
User avatar
origami_itto
Wuji
 
Posts: 5243
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:11 pm
Location: Palm Bay, FL

Re: The Great Filter solution to the Fermi Paradox

Postby everything on Fri Oct 13, 2023 12:37 pm

my local library seems to have a translated copy. will be getting...
amateur practices til gets right pro til can't get wrong
/ better approx answer to right q than exact answer to wrong q which can be made precise /
“most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. Source of all true art & science
User avatar
everything
Wuji
 
Posts: 8332
Joined: Tue May 13, 2008 7:22 pm
Location: USA


Return to Off the Topic

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 86 guests