something positive for a change

[shawnsegler]

http://www.ted.com/talks/alex_tabarrok_foresees_economic_growth.html

[Chris Fleming]

Wow. Face palm. It's all good to be optimistic but what got me was towards the end and the conclusions he came to.

That guy said that "we" (as a nation) became even richer after the great depression and no one would have predicted that. That only happened because of the New Deal, where our government became bigger and bigger still in creating such things like an even more powerful central bank, so called deposit insurance, massive (and growing) entitlement programs, etc. It wasn't the free market that simply became stronger because of new ideas. I don't necessarily call all of the New Deal a bad thing, but it is setting things up like the Great Depression to happen again. Just because it takes decades for the house of cards to crash down again doesn't mean the foundation was strong.

Because of us repeating history once again with stock market manipulation, housing bubbles, credit crises, and inflation (sound familiar?), we are more likely to need a new New Deal all over again. What that will look like is anyone's guess but if anything, the U.S. won't be the worlds leader with the world reserve currency anymore because of our spend-thrift ways. Good chance of that being the reality, not simply idea innovation. No, politicians being who and what they are, will look for ways to innovate in ways all of their own, which always is growing bigger government.

Secondly, oil. I don't disagree that rising oil prices will create a demand for other methods and spark the creative juices for innovation for alternative energies, but lets face it, oil is the life blood of the world. That is how it is RIGHT NOW and will be this way for decades to come. Economically speaking, just try to imagine every use for oil being replaced by another form of energy. Quite an undertaking. I have no doubt that this will be happening more and more but in the mean time, rising oil prices WILL be hard for everyone to absorb. That's the thing with this speaker that I don't get--in looking at the big picture, he seems to be forgetting that there were millions of people who didn't make it through the Great Depression and there will be untold economic hardship on the world as oil goes further and further up.

Now, education. Recently even the news was saying that the U.S., the supposed leader in all things good and right, was ranked something like 21st in the world when it came to education. I don't think people are flocking to the U.S. to get edjamacated. Staying right there where they are in Europe or India and China is working for them just fine. Because of the higher standards of education with a stronger emphasis on the sciences, we will be seeing other nations taking the lead in innovation, which will in turn create a bigger middle class in developing nations, which will also create more and more competition for the worlds natural resources.

So anyway, I guess it is a good thing to be on the lecture circuit and to be optimistic, but I prefer to be realistic.