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Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Sun Jul 03, 2016 3:19 am
by Michael
No idea. I'm focusing more on my southern strategy than geopolitics these days.

Go <insert name of country here>. Long live <insert name of demagogue here>.

I have down my patriotic duty. Back to the Tang mines.

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Sun Jul 03, 2016 11:34 am
by grzegorz
So the answer is yes and the reason conspiracy theorists should never be taken seriously.

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:13 pm
by Michael
15 minute overview of state of affairs in Russia from The Caspian Report



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BT4sK36cU3Y

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2016 11:05 am
by grzegorz
Thanks, I've been looking for that channel. It's been awhile and when I was looking for them I kept typing in the Black Sea Report.

I just watched a gang of their videos last night. They did make some interesting points, among them one does have to wonder what would happen to Russia at this point without Putin.

I believe Putin believed that by fighting ISIS and for Assad that the West would forget about Crimea and have an alliance with him. If Donald Trump gets into office it just might happen.

I do also believe that whether (directly or indirectly) Putin taking the side of Assad led to or at least added to and extended the refugee crisis which ultimately led to the Brexit vote.

He's definately making a lot of bold moves. But sometimes to see the results things take time...



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7al7Q7TE_0

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:20 pm
by Steve James
Putin's being logical as far as his (and Russian) interests are concerned. Ensuring access to the Crimean is profitable and militarily critical. He also wants to protect those interests from being used by the NATO countries at Russia's expense. The fundamental question (for me) is whether this is self-defense or expansionism. It would make sense for Putin to want the Russian empire (sphere of direct influence) to be as wide as the former USSR. However, will it happen through military, political or economic means? What will be the response of those within the sphere to these actions? That's when the issue becomes intervention or non-intervention.

Assad supports Russian interests, and they in turn naturally want him to stay in power. His enemies are Putin's enemies. If they happen to be IS, so be it. If they're Turkmen, Kurds or anti-Assad rebels, tough luck. Putin doesn't have to be the devil. But, that doesn't mean he's a nice guy with a peaceful agenda. The same is true for the NATO alliance, too.

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:23 pm
by Michael
I saw that vid where Putin receives Erdogan in St. Petersburg and I am encouraged about a seeing a reconciliation between Turkey and Russia because the Syrian situation was very tense with the red line and then the schism (my interpretation) between US and Turkey over the Kurds last summer. NATO did not do much for Erdogan during the coup attempt, so perhaps there are no longer multiple agendas or factions in the US policy on Syria, and I think that means it will be more likely for an actual end to the war to be negotiated.

Maybe something like Russia moderates Syria and Turkey, US moderates Saudi Arabia and Gulf States, then Lavrov and Kerry bring it together. I wonder if Hillary's elected will Kerry stay on? Or will she replace him with some massive war hawk?

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:33 pm
by Michael
grzegorz wrote:Thanks, I've been looking for that channel. It's been awhile and when I was looking for them I kept typing in the Black Sea Report.

They did make some interesting points, among them one does have to wonder what would happen to Russia at this point without Putin.

His description of greater centralization of power by the Kremlin and further weakening of state institutions is a grim outlook in the face of the economic decline. We getting more and more Russians in Guangzhou, that's for sure.

I would like to see the sanctions against Russia lifted. I don't see how it's helping and the recent use of extended sanctions against Iraq that resulted in such widespread suffering* makes me extremely suspicious of their use in general.

I believe Putin believed that by fighting ISIS and for Assad that the West would forget about Crimea and have an alliance with him.

I also think they saw a serious threat from ISIS in what Assad described as a jihadist incubator.

*Madeline Albricht acknowledged 500,000+ Iraqi children died from the first Iraq war and the sanctions over a period of years. Then there's Cuba.

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 11:20 am
by grzegorz
Yes indeed, war sucks which is why I started this thread.

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 12:16 pm
by chud
Steve James wrote:Assad supports Russian interests, and they in turn naturally want him to stay in power. His enemies are Putin's enemies. If they happen to be IS, so be it. If they're Turkmen, Kurds or anti-Assad rebels, tough luck.


The Kurds are the big X-factor for everyone in Syria, because they are the best at fighting ISIS and no one can control them.

The US has a hard time getting the Kurds to do what they want. They kicked ISIS out of Manbij (with help from US air support) but the US then wanted them to head south and attack Raqqa, and instead the Kurds headed west to hook up with more Kurds.

Turkey considers the Syrian Kurds to be part of the Kurdistan Worker's Party which Turkey outlawed as a terrorist group.

Asad's government doesn't like the Kurds because they want to establish their own autonomous region in Northern Syria, and have done a good job fighting so far.

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Fri Aug 19, 2016 12:19 pm
by chud
What's really interesting is that the Russians now have an air arrangement with Iran and Iraq: just this week Russia started flying TU-22 bombers straight out of Hamadan air base in Iran, and are crossing through Iraq's air space with their permission to get to Syria.

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:16 am
by grzegorz
chud wrote:The Kurds are the big X-factor for everyone in Syria, because they are the best at fighting ISIS and no one can control them.

The US has a hard time getting the Kurds to do what they want. They kicked ISIS out of Manbij (with help from US air support) but the US then wanted them to head south and attack Raqqa, and instead the Kurds headed west to hook up with more Kurds.


It sounds like they know what they're doing. As I recall Westerners have been joining the Kurds although we don't hear much about these days.

I believe it's becoming more and more obvious that ultimately Iraq should become three states with the Kurds having their own country. I have no idea how the other two states would be successfully divided among the Sunni and Shia but obviously what they have now isn't working. Unfortunately Turkey is opposed to the Kurds having their own state and being that they're a NATO country and now seem to be uniting with Putin it would be hard to this to happen right now. Ultimately I think we're going to see an endless war.

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2016 12:19 pm
by grzegorz

MH17 shot down by Buk missile brought in from Russia, say investigators
By Tim Hume and Claudia Rebaza, CNN

Updated 11:14 AM ET, Wed September 28, 2016


http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/28/europe/mh ... index.html

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Fri Nov 04, 2016 12:14 am
by grzegorz
New video by Vice.

On the Frontlines of Ukraine's Proxy War Between the West and Russia



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7D4r8OTgTw


And a slightly older one.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkW4eW7TMvM#t=3.755802

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 1:36 am
by grzegorz
Thanks Trump...

Military situation in eastern Ukraine worsens – EurActiv.com

http://www.euractiv.com/section/europe- ... e-worsens/

Re: The Russians are coming.

PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:44 am
by Steve James
Well, it'll be interesting to hear Trump's comments on this, if any. Some of his recent orders will probably get more attention, though.