North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby grzegorz on Thu May 03, 2018 1:34 pm

windwalker wrote:
Ian C. Kuzushi wrote:Some good info on the situation and background (both the progressive and conservative experts agree that Trump is not the primary actor or factor):

https://chicagotonight.wttw.com/2018/05 ... im-jong-un


I don’t think it’s because of South Korean or U.S. actions,” Friedhoff said. “They have their own calculus going on, and we need to think very carefully about what that calculus is and what it means for their negotiating position.”


Interesting article doesn't really seem to attribute much to president Trump other than the selection site for the negotiation.

I think the credible threat of military action had a lot to do with the present timing of the negotiations.

They say complete denuclearization is not an option but it seems to be one of the main points that they've already agreed to and one that the administration will insist on.


US foreign policy in N. Korea has always been regime change. From what I can tell Kim has negotiated to stay in power and the world is going to let him be. Kim is the real mastermind.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby windwalker on Thu May 03, 2018 1:46 pm

grzegorz wrote:
US foreign policy in N. Korea has always been regime change. From what I can tell Kim has negotiated to stay in power and the world is going to let him be. Kim is the real mastermind.


Can you point to or show were any type of negotiations were conducted ensuring that he would remain in power.
The N-Korean president completed a process started many yrs before he came to power,
that has to be addressed having an either positive or negative outcome.

It remains to be seen.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby grzegorz on Thu May 03, 2018 2:12 pm

Can you show me where Trump has demanded that Kim step down?

Didn't think so.

Why do I think Kim will stay in power? Because I have the ability to think. Remember I called the election way back in June? I didn't read that anywhere I just figured out how he was promising everything to everyone?

So did the money from the corporate tax break tirckle down to anyone yet?

I understand people's need to legitimize a spoiled kid draft dodger who now sees himself as a war time President but the fact is other than some politicians kissing up to Trump's so he will avoid a war and agree to let the Koreans do what they want to do with their destiny I fail to see how "he" deserves any credit.

In fact I think we would all be better off if Trump did nothing at all.

But since that wom't haopen let's all chsnt, "Nobel!" So unlike his cssino business and university it doesn't all come crashing down and turn out to be nothing more than another shame committed by the Trump crime family.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby grzegorz on Thu May 03, 2018 2:43 pm

grzegorz wrote:Image
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby windwalker on Thu May 03, 2018 2:52 pm

grzegorz wrote:Can you show me where Trump has demanded that Kim step down?

Didn't think so.

Didn't feel the need, he presented a credible use of force which didn't depend on whether Kim stepped down or not, that wasn't the issue.
Hopefully the meeting if it happens will be part of a greater change both Koreas need that will benefit the Korean people and help stabilize the region. .

as to the rest,,,,the point is ?


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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby Steve James on Thu May 03, 2018 3:21 pm

Did you or didn't you write that "preconditions" have been met?

Two: is it true that US prisoners have been released? I heard not ... from the WH itself.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/w ... -1.3968922
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby windwalker on Thu May 03, 2018 3:38 pm

Steve James wrote:Did you or didn't you write that "preconditions" have been met?

what I wrote "Another precondition met."

along with "There is no promise of anything all sanctions remain in place, the US has set the conditions for a meeting to take place so far the N Koreans seem to be meeting them. "


Two: is it true that US prisoners have been released? I heard not ... from the WH itself.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/w ... -1.3968922
.


"The United States and North Korea "seem to have decided on a date to release these people," said Choi. "North Korea probably wants to straighten out their affairs; rehabilitate them." remains to be seen looks like a relase date is being worked out.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby grzegorz on Thu May 03, 2018 3:41 pm

windwalker wrote:
grzegorz wrote:Can you show me where Trump has demanded that Kim step down?

Didn't think so.

Didn't feel the need, he presented a credible use of force which didn't depend on whether Kim stepped down or not, that wasn't the issue.
Hopefully the meeting if it happens will be part of a greater change both Koreas need that will benefit the Korean people and help stabilize the region. .

as to the rest,,,,the point is ?




In my view Kim will stay in power.

Btw, as I recall we also debated that Mexico would pay for the wall and IS would be defeated in 30 days.

I called bunk then too as I do now to Trump getting full credit for what the Koreans accomplished.

If anyone deserves a Nobel it would be Moon in my opinion.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby Steve James on Thu May 03, 2018 4:57 pm

what I wrote "Another precondition met."


And then you wrote that there were no preconditions. That's the fact. You wrote it because of something that hadn't happened, and you couldn't have known either way. No need for you to kitchen sink me with information. You meant that there were more than one preconditions and that "another one" was met. When I asked you what the first one was, you said that there weren't any.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby windwalker on Thu May 03, 2018 7:06 pm

Steve James wrote:
what I wrote "Another precondition met."


And then you wrote that there were no preconditions. from the N-Koreans That's the fact. The fact was that there was a precondition. Another one refering to the release of the Americans was another precondition or action suggested publicly that apparently they had been working on privately.


You wrote it because of something that hadn't happened, and you couldn't have known either way. No need for you to kitchen sink me with information. You meant that there were more than one preconditions and that "another one" was met. When I asked you what the first one was, you said that there weren't any.

This is what I posted in answer to your question

"US President Donald Trump's condition for meeting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is that there be no nuclear or missile testing, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Sunday.

"There shouldn't be confusion," Mnuchin told NBC's Meet the Press when asked about White House press secretary Sarah Sanders' statement on Friday that there would be no meeting without concrete and verifiable actions by North Korea."[/color]


next?
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby Steve James on Thu May 03, 2018 7:45 pm

The fact was that there was a precondition.


Yeah, right. Don't bother.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby grzegorz on Thu May 03, 2018 10:44 pm

Hopefully Trump handles this better than his medical records.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby Steve James on Fri May 04, 2018 4:41 am

grzegorz wrote:Hopefully Trump handles this better than his medical records.


You mean "as well" as his medical records. I.e., he will just dictate the terms. The only difference would be that he'd admit to writing the terms. (Btw, that'll be the way it'll be explained on Hannity. It's a pattern. Coal is back, baby.)
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby grzegorz on Fri May 04, 2018 5:18 pm

If Trump or Pence does get re-elected I doubt it will have anything to do with North Korea. From the indicators I have seen this surge in the economy will go "South" in the near future and that will probably affect the election more than the Koreas.

I just read today that the Chinese are sticking to their guns and not buying US soil beans. Yesterday I read that econimic growth this quarter was much lower than expected.
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Re: North Korea South Korea Sitting in a Tree

Postby grzegorz on Sat May 05, 2018 8:13 am

Here are 3 theories.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/22/asia/kim ... ries-intl/

For me, the fact that Kim waa educated in Switzerland means that he is more likely to be open to reforms than his predecessors.


World+

Live TV 

Why Kim Jong Un came in from the cold: 3 theories

By Katie Hunt, CNN

Updated 5:02 PM ET, Sun April 22, 2018

(CNN)For years they've been separated by the legacy of war, but on Friday the leaders of South and North Korea staged a rare display of cohesion as they stepped across the line separating the two nations.

At the aptly named Peace House in the demilitarized zone (DMZ) that divides the two countries, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in held talks about the future on the Korean Peninsula.

The landmark summit, the first time leaders of the two countries have met since 2007, comes on the back of an unprecedented flurry of international diplomacy that has seen Kim emerge from years of isolation ready to play on a world stage.

Play Video

What's bringing Kim Jong Un to the table02:27

All this comes before what's primed to be the most significant diplomatic encounter in a generation when Kim and US President Donald Trump meet in May or early June.

Pyongyang's frantic engagement efforts are a dramatic departure from 2017, when North Korea trumpeted the advances of its nuclear weapons program, threatening the US territory of Guam and claiming its rockets could hit the US mainland.

So what exactly has brought Kim to the table? Is he negotiating from a position of strength or weakness? Here, three experts share their views.

William Brown, adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service

Kim is extremely vulnerable economically, which means he is approaching this negotiation from a position of weakness.

We've seen a collapse in trade with China, with North Korean exports down 95% year on year, at only $9 million in February. Imports were down by about a third to $103 million, including almost nothing of long-term value -- no machinery, cereals, petroleum products, or vehicles.

This is according to official Chinese data -- it may not be completely accurate but it is what Beijing wants everyone to know, which in itself is trouble for Pyongyang. North Korea's overall foreign trade is probably at its weakest since the Korean War, and despite the rhetoric, it is nowhere near self-reliant, especially for food, fuel, and machinery.

Historic Koreas summit

Live: Kim, Moon hold landmark talksHere's what Kim and Moon first saidFull report: Kim calls for 'new history'Watch: Kim's guards run by limoPhotos: Moon and Kim meet at DMZWatch: Kim crosses demarcation line

At home, the economy faces huge pressures. Unofficially, the dollar, along with China's renminbi, has become more widely circulated, bringing important gains to market activities and private sector productivity, but creating huge problems for the regime, which is concerned the private sector will undermine state control.

This makes it hard to control domestic credit and inflation, since at any time people can decide to cash in their North Korean won for US dollars. This risks a currency collapse which can be orchestrated from outside.

The weak state economy forced Kim to swallow Trump's aggressive posturing, reach out to Seoul and Washington, and take the train to Beijing. We don't know what Xi discussed with Kim, but it could involve some sanctions relief in return for sincere summit talks.

Pyongyang knows that at any time China can cut off delivery of free crude oil, causing inflation to soar. Kim is not stupid enough to risk this, and must come to the table.

This gives the US an opportunity to create major systemic change in North Korea, including ending the hostility brought on by the archaic Stalinist command economy and social system, which prevent normal dealing with the rest of the world.

Bottom line: It's our best chance in at least a generation, since our failure to take advantage of Kim Il Sung's death, the famine, and the collapse of the Soviet Union in the mid-1990s. Kim might not give up his nuclear arsenal, but he may be willing to let it erode or be made unusable. We hold the negotiating advantage. The advantages may thus be ours, but it won't be easy.

William Brown, adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service

Jean H. Lee, director Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy

Kim Jong Un's emergence onto the world stage six years into his leadership is part of a meticulously crafted and methodically executed political strategy.

Content with his nuclear program and his status as a military leader capable of defending his people, he's now turning his attention to international relations -- and is stepping onto the world stage not simply as a young man who inherited leadership of an impoverished country but as a leader backed by a nuclear weapons program that poses a real threat to global security.

He feels confident that his nuclear program will force foreign leaders to treat him as an equal, and get him a seat at the table with the US as a peer, not an underdog.

Simply sitting down for a summit with Moon, and then Trump, leader of the world's most powerful country, will be characterized as a victory back home in North Korea. Neither his father, Kim Jong Il, or his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, held a summit with a sitting US president.

Of course, this position of strength is mainly in terms of propaganda value back home, but Kim's need to settle the question of his authority and leadership within North Korea cannot be discounted. In reality, no matter how Pyongyang spins it, North Korea is a poor country in desperate need of outside help.

Bottom line: Kim is playing a high-stakes game, using nuclear weapons as his trump card, in order to improve his hand in future negations with South Korea and the United States.

Jean H. Lee, director Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy

Adam Mount, Senior Fellow and Director, Defense Posture Project, Federation of American Scientists

When Kim Jong Un arrives for summits with Moon and Trump, he will have several paths to a win.

Kim will attempt to ease sanctions, harvest legitimacy, and damage the US-South Korea military alliance while offering as few restrictions as possible on his nuclear and missile programs.

The diplomatic overtures are in part a play for time. Pyongyang may have calculated that the risk of war has risen to unacceptable levels and that the best play is to run out the clock on Trump's first term, which has been marked by erratic threats, military displays, and the appointment of hardliners to high positions.

If it ever came to major war, North Korea would inflict massive damage on South Korean, Japanese, and US citizens. But even as it did, the regime would likely sustain enormous losses. Its leaders could lose their grip on power or their lives.

To buy time, North Korea may offer moderate and temporary concessions to limit its nuclear or missile tests programs, offer purely symbolic steps hoping the president will accept them and declare victory for the US, or may try to bog down negotiators in complex technical discussions.

In any case, the idea that diplomatic or military action could immediately and irreversibly dismantle North Korea's nuclear program is a chimera.

Bottom line: If Pyongyang tries to run out the clock, the US must be prepared to use that time to its advantage: demand strict restrictions to limit the threat to US allied territory while we pursue a more restrictive agreements.

As long as North Korea's nuclear and missile programs are not moving forward, time is in everyone's interest. It may be the only plausible outcome that makes the US and its allies more rather than less safe. If Trump succeeded in this, he could fairly call it a win.

Adam Mount, Senior Fellow and Director, Defense Posture Project, Federation of American Scientists

The opinions expressed here are solely those of the authors. A graphic in an earlier version of this story had

 

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