China view of Trump

[Bill]

Donald Trump is leading a double life. In the west, most foreign policy experts see him as reckless, unpredictable and self-defeating. But though many in Asia dislike him as much as the Europeans do, they see him as a more substantial figure. I have just spent a week in Beijing talking to officials and intellectuals, many of whom are awed by his skill as a strategist and tactician.

One of the people I met was the former vice-foreign minister He Yafei. He shot to global prominence in 2009 when he delivered a finger-wagging lecture to President Barack Obama at the Copenhagen climate conference before blowing up hopes of a deal. He is somewhat less belligerent where Mr Trump is concerned. He worries that strategic competition has become the new normal and says that “trade wars are just the tip of the iceberg”.

Few Chinese think that Mr Trump’s primary concern is to rebalance the bilateral trade deficit. If it were, they say, he would have aligned with the EU, Japan and Canada against China rather than scooping up America’s allies in his tariff dragnet. They think the US president’s goal is nothing less than remaking the global order.

They think Mr Trump feels he is presiding over the relative decline of his great nation. It is not that the current order does not benefit the US. The problem is that it benefits others more in relative terms. To make things worse the US is investing billions of dollars and a fair amount of blood in supporting the very alliances and international institutions that are constraining America and facilitating China’s rise.

In Chinese eyes, Mr Trump’s response is a form of “creative destruction”. He is systematically destroying the existing institutions — from the World Trade Organization and the North American Free Trade Agreement to Nato and the Iran nuclear deal — as a first step towards renegotiating the world order on terms more favourable to Washington.

Once the order is destroyed, the Chinese elite believes, Mr Trump will move to stage two: renegotiating America’s relationship with other powers. Because the US is still the most powerful country in the world, it will be able to negotiate with other countries from a position of strength if it deals with them one at a time rather than through multilateral institutions that empower the weak at the expense of the strong.

My interlocutors say that Mr Trump is the US first president for more than 40 years to bash China on three fronts simultaneously: trade, military and ideology. They describe him as a master tactician, focusing on one issue at a time, and extracting as many concessions as he can. They speak of the skilful way Mr Trump has treated President Xi Jinping. “Look at how he handled North Korea,” one says. “He got Xi Jinping to agree to UN sanctions [half a dozen] times, creating an economic stranglehold on the country. China almost turned North Korea into a sworn enemy of the country.” But they also see him as a strategist, willing to declare a truce in each area when there are no more concessions to be had, and then start again with a new front.

For the Chinese, even Mr Trump’s sycophantic press conference with Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, in Helsinki had a strategic purpose. They see it as Henry Kissinger in reverse. In 1972, the US nudged China off the Soviet axis in order to put pressure on its real rival, the Soviet Union. Today Mr Trump is reaching out to Russia in order to isolate China.

In the short term, China is talking tough in response to Mr Trump’s trade assault. At the same time they are trying to develop a multiplayer front against him by reaching out to the EU, Japan and South Korea. But many Chinese experts are quietly calling for a rethink of the longer-term strategy. They want to prepare the ground for a new grand bargain with the US based on Chinese retrenchment. Many feel that Mr Xi has over-reached and worry that it was a mistake simultaneously to antagonise the US economically and militarily in the South China Sea.

Instead, they advocate economic concessions and a pullback from the aggressive tactics that have characterised China’s recent foreign policy. They call for a Chinese variant of “splendid isolationism”, relying on growing the domestic market rather than disrupting other countries’ economies by exporting industrial surpluses.

So which is the real Mr Trump? The reckless reactionary destroying critical alliances, or the “stable genius” who is pressuring China? The answer seems to depend on where you ask the question. Things look different from Beijing than from Brussels.


https://www.ft.com/content/f83b20e4-8e6 ... 3b945e78cf

[Dmitri]

He should move to China then and be their president. That would be a near-perfect fit actually

[Bill]

I want a President who works in our interest like Trump does.

[RobP3]

It's self interest that will be our downfall as species

[Peacedog]

Enlightened self interest is the only thing I've ever seen work. Anytime someone talks about "the people", I reach for my wallet since it usually means someone is about to rob me.

But in all seriousness, China is just about done. Their population got old before they got rich and the coming die off of humanity caused by the promotion of Malthusian nonsense is going to be completely catastrophic for large portions of the world. And given China's historical tendency to randomly slaughter its population, I'm betting things are about to go south in the Middle Kingdom once again. The leadership is betting the farm on AI to make the decisions they don't trust their populations to make and it probably won't work.

Trump, and/or his policy makers, are trying to position the US to best weather the coming calamity wherein free trade takes a huge hit, development comes to a crawl in large portions of the world or regresses, international travel becomes dangerous again and the big countries are too overtaxed to do anything but keep a lid on the crappier parts of the world while putting up huge walls to keep the barbarians out.

Human progress isn't always linear and those living now are likely to see human populations diverge. The developed parts of the world will increasingly resemble paradise realms where people live progressively longer in very clean and secure environments. And everyone else will have varying degrees of suck based off of their ability to utilize technologies that their very societal organization largely prevents.

Developed countries are entering a weird post-scarcity of resources era wherein power is about to get really cheap. This is unheard of in the history of mankind. Yet, also interesting, is that much of the developing world will be unable to leverage this technology as they simply can't run it. Some think AI will be the end run around this, but based off of conversations with my friends in tech this seems unlikely.

And none of this addresses what is going on in Africa right now that is creating a huge battlefield which is going to last at least a generation. And I'm not sure many of the nations there are going to pull it off.

[Bao]

"But many Chinese experts are quietly calling for a rethink of the longer-term strategy."

It's impossible to have any fixed long-term strategy dealing with Trump.

[Steve James]

Self-interest is what it means for me. National interest is what it means for "us," and that means all "the people" who are citizens of the nation. So, yeah, "We, the People" always means more than just one.

Anyway, afa the article, the "Chinese" view will naturally be the one that Chinese people feel benefit them. It doesn't seem like China is in decline, even if it suffers somewhat economically because of tariffs. Imo, Americans could always do better by buying American made goods. The problem today is that even American products are made with Chinese materials, or by foreign companies that manufacture in the US. It's not clear that tariffs hurt China more than the counter tariffs hurt Americans. That's why $12 billion will be given to American farmers whose businesses are already affected. (These subsidies will last through election season, imo. That way, the tariffs will be called successful. And, if they don't, the fault will be laid on the unfair Chinese practices).

[LaoDan]

I think that people give Trump too much credit. As far as I can see, he just acts like a bully. He has more power, so he wants to get his way regardless. Martial arts generally teach people how to stand up to bullies, rather than becoming bullies themselves (although this does happen). I cannot support bullying, regardless of whether or not it benefits me. It is not my view of humanity.

[Peacedog]

He strikes me as the older, grumpy, head of household who is calling out his layabout nephew who has been sleeping on his couch to get his shit together (the Euros and NATO) and telling the local grocer who has his finger on the scale (the Chinese) to stop ripping him off or he'll shop elsewhere.

Likewise, as an alpha-male he is telling the whinny women's league (SJWs) to stop their hen fest and get back into the kitchen and make a few sandwiches for lunch.

Nothing about this strikes me as bullying. It does strike me as someone who is keen on getting others to honor their commitments/responsibilities or they can find someone else to leech off of.

His work with the Saudi's and getting them to clean up their act has been nothing less than remarkable in this regard (i.e. take care of your Wahabi and terror financing problem or we'll let the Persians march all the way to Mecca).

The fact that a leftist leaning Mexican president has been open about the need to control the border and willing to talk about it seems to indicate that something is going on behind scenes that is substantial. We'll see how that goes.

[Steve James]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJeNqoGx_t0

[grzegorz]

I want a President who works in our interest like Trump does.

If Trump gave a damn about this country then why does not he have anything made here instead of China? What? Are there zero t-shirt makers in the US? Because I know a few just a couple miles from my work. I am sure they would be happy with a MAGA order despite where they stand.

Trump is a complete hypocrite all his stuff and his daughter's was and is made in China and yet he blames China for making our stuff and US companies for having their manufacturing done there.



Turn off FOX and wake up already.

TPP is what would have helped the US in a trade war against China but your boy tore it up because Obama created it.

Oh well perhaps when everyone starts paying their healthcare increases the FOX news viewers will wake up to reality.

As far as the Chinese they are far from blunt when meeting foreigners. Sure they may have told you what you wanted to hear but trust me piss them off and you will see how they really feel.

Unlike us Americans, the Chinese do not try to piss off their friends and or people they care about so chances are they were giving you big face by telling you what you wanted to hear. Over here it is called sucking up, for the Chinese it is keeping harmonious relationships.

Trump flags and hats made in China are reportedly being held up at customs as trade war heats up

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-f ... war-2018-7

[windwalker]

I want a President who works in our interest like Trump does.

If Trump gave a damn about this country then why does not he have anything made here instead of China? What? Are there zero t-shirt makers in the US? Because I know a few just a couple miles from my work. I am sure they would be happy with a MAGA order despite where they stand.

Trump is a complete hypocrite all his stuff and his daughter's was and is made in China and yet he blames China for making our stuff and US companies for having their manufacturing done there.



Turn off FOX and wake up already.

TPP is what would have helped the US in a trade war against China but your boy tore it up because Obama created it.

"your boy" wow got some vocabulary there.

Lets try this, How would TPP have have helped in the trade war against china?

Just some of your thoughts on it in gen,,,doesn't have to be much detail....

Oh well perhaps when everyone starts paying their healthcare increases the FOX news viewers will wake up to reality.

As far as the Chinese they are far from blunt when meeting foreigners. Sure they may have told you what you wanted to hear but trust me piss them off and you will see how they really feel.

Unlike us Americans, the Chinese do not try to piss off their friends and or people they care about so chances are they were giving you big face by telling you what you wanted to hear. Over here it is called sucking up, for the Chinese it is keeping harmonious relationships.Do you speak for the Chinese or only to your experience with them.

Trump flags and hats made in China are reportedly being held up at customs as trade war heats up

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-f ... war-2018-7

He himself may not even be aware of it due to how his business is now structured.
If he is aware of it he may not be able to do anything about it for the same reasons.

Makes for good headlines

[grzegorz]

Not even aware?

Really?

Well Letteman told to his face on national TV a long time ago and he openly admitted it.

Watch "That one time David Letterman laid the smackdown on Donald Trump about his Made In China line of clo" on YouTube

https://youtu.be/9FjAPp5ckeY

This is the real Doanld Trump.

[windwalker]

WW wrote :He himself may not even be aware of it due to how his business is now structured.

If he is aware of it he may not be able to do anything about it for the same reasons

do you feel the priorities of a businessman and president of the United States are the same.

[Bao]

WW wrote :He himself may not even be aware of it due to how his business is now structured.

If he is aware of it he may not be able to do anything about it for the same reasons

do you feel the priorities of a businessman and president of the United States are the same.

Interesting question. What I have understood, many voted for him more because of his business acumen and less for political edge.