The Saudi Embassy affair

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The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby KEND on Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:09 am

What do you make of the Saudi embassy affair. To me it looks like a kidnapping gone wrong and a cover up. Anyway if it was it was very sloppy, they didn't even fake him leaving. It doesn't bode well for the Saudi ruler, trump has condemned it, probably to get a better deal on the arms he is selling, and to please turkey[ pastor got released making him look good]. There are many other possibilities, a renegade group making the prince look bad, the turks faking videos. Anyway a scapegoat will be found and heads will literally roll
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby Steve James on Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:37 am

If the Saudis tried to do this, it does appear clumsy. Journalists have disappeared or been murdered on the streets of Moscow, and in other countries. Whenever there was videotape, the kidnappers didn't care.

One way or the other, repercussions have already happened. If confirmed, there'll probably be some form of UN sanction. I'm not sure that the US will stop supporting the Saudis, in general, though the prince might be replaced.
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby Peacedog on Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:39 pm

Here's an article that can provide some context as to what was happening behind the scenes.

What the media is leaving out is that Khashoggi was less a journalist and more an Islamist the used the media to enhance the goals of the Muslim Brotherhood. I'm not saying his death, assuming it went down the way it was reported, was a good thing. I'm saying it was unsurprising.

https://spectator.us/2018/10/jamal-khashoggi/
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby KEND on Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:08 pm

Interesting insights into the politics of the vctim. It appears the proxy wars between Saudi and iran have been brought to the surface, the lines have been drawn, turkey and iran with their surrogate the moslem brotherhood which Egypt successfully erased[with minimum dissent from the west] vs Saudi, Egypt and the tacit support of Israel. I think trump was trying to get a better deal from the Saudis but will be persuaded by his more worldly party members to drop his objections and support the prince. Its a harsh real world, like the support of dictators in south America was a half a century ago, then it was 'the communists' now it is the ;islamists'
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby Peacedog on Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:55 pm

The Iran/Persian versus Arab conflict is a lot bloodier than most realize.

While all of this basically comes across as a bad guy versus badder guy to most people in the West, the combatants involved view this as more a regional war for control of the greater Middle East than anything else.

Khashoggi was an ass who probably was going to find a bad end at some point in any event. The fact that it went down the way it did, most likely, is a little strange.

Prince Salman is waging an all hands on deck level struggle for control of the kingdom. It is unclear how much control he has over all of the elements involved as the Saudi government is also fighting a rather nasty internal battle against a variety of terrorist groups. Either way a lot of players are moving around on the board.

Reporting puts some of Salman's personal security detail on the scene at the embassy. That would TEND to indicate the prince was in on it. But again, in a small place like Saudi only so many competent security operators exist in the first place. And loyalties can get a little complicated. Plus all of that assumes the reporting is accurate in the first place. Between the Turks, Saudis, cracked out media and various third party actors who knows what actually happened.
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby Steve James on Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:32 pm

The Saudi prince may be trying to eliminate competitive Islamic fundamentalists; but, it is itself "the" fundamentalist nation. Bin Laden was a Saudi, and the wahabis are as radical as any other sect. Perhaps, the journalist did favor the Muslim Brotherhood, but that doesn't make him worse than the Saudis (who bombed the Towers on 9/11). The reason we allegedly care is that the Saudis have been our allies, and are at the center of the Muslim world.

I'd say that the Turk's true reasons for exposing what happened is the key. In general, the Turks have favored the Muslim Brotherhood, so they have a reason to make the Saudis look bad. The Saudis have their own record, so it's easy to believe that they're capable of eliminating opponents. In that, however, they are certainly no different than any Middle Eastern state.

Not only will few Americans have no idea of the Persian/Arab conflicts, they will have no idea of the religious and social conflicts within them. Combine that with the fact that national boundaries are almost always artificial and contain non-Muslim ethnic and tribal groups, some are not native Arabic or Farsi speakers. Iow, the region is too complicated to make generalization sufficient for understanding anything.

I am interested in knowing what we should do because some Muslims killed a Muslim journalist. I mean, is it a matter of principle? Nations shouldn't kill journalists? Or, the Saudis are bad guys and we have to do something about them?

If we sanction, the Saudis will deny and pay. The sanctions won't last forever. We don't want the government to fail because the next one would be purely religious and not familial. Otoh, it's more likely that we'll give more support to Turkey, and perhaps bother them less about the Kurds.

(Btw, I think it's interesting that there's almost no news about Afghanistan, Iraq, or Syria recently.
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby Peacedog on Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:01 pm

Keep in mind that Bin Laden was actually Yemeni by way of Saudi.

Regarding Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria not much is being reported as they've all reached stalemate status.

Afghanistan is what it is: tribals versus city folk and needs another 30 years of development for the government to have any chance of controlling most of the country. And that doesn't get into their a-hole neighbors doing everything they can to destabilize the place.

Iraq: Slowly establishing rule of law throughout the western provinces. Kurds appear to have back off on breaking away altogether...for now. Iraq seems to be on the upswing right now. Hopefully that will continue. As the other legitimate elected government in the Middle East outside of Israel, I wish them the best.

Syria: Bashir won. The US has a vested interest in keeping him in his box. Pretty much the same as it ever was. The only upshot is that he might have killed, and or driven, off enough of the Sunnis to actually have a majority of the population support him now. Its all unclear and probably won't get any clearer any time soon. That said the Sunnis in Syria were/are real world class shitbags that no one will ever miss. People keep forgetting these creeps all supported the ISIS government and these are the same jerks that supported ISIL in Iraq back in the day as well. The idea that any Western government would let these guys into their country as refugees is insane.
Last edited by Peacedog on Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby grzegorz on Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:33 pm

I have another thread on Saudi on here and have always said the fact that the US threatens and attacks Afganistan, Iraq, Yemen, Iran and others but never Saudi just shows the hypocrisy of my country's foreign policy. IS and Al Qaeda are based on on Saudi Arabia's Wahhabism.
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby Steve James on Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:50 pm

Bin Laden's father was ethnic Yemeni and his mother was Syrian, but he was born in Saudi Arabia. That doesn't make him really Yemeni, anymore than someone's parents being born in Italy make their children born in NY Italians. Besides, I'm not sure Yemeni identity makes much difference afa what I said about Saudi Arabia. Bin Laden was pissed because the Saudis allowed Americans to use Saudi Arabia and Yemen as military bases for the war with Iraq, specifically. He was as religiously radical while he still lived in Saudi Arabia, too. Saudi Arabia still has slavery, or virtual slavery that is permitted by diplomats in the US.

I have no clue about the actual state of affairs in the region. I guess Assad has won against the rebels, though --while US news does not report it-- there have been numerous bombings, though it seems fewer.

Afghanistan is by nature a stalemate. The Taliban can wait. No one has ever won there. But, no news is better than bad news. I'm all in favor of things being cool.
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby Trick on Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:18 am

Steve James wrote:If the Saudis tried to do this, it does appear clumsy. Journalists have disappeared or been murdered on the streets of Moscow, and in other countries. Whenever there was videotape, the kidnappers didn't care.

One way or the other, repercussions have already happened. If confirmed, there'll probably be some form of UN sanction. I'm not sure that the US will stop supporting the Saudis, in general, though the prince might be replaced.

Can U.N. put sanctions on an UN member state ? Turkey and Saudi Arabia, two of the original UN member states. And since 2017 SA also showing their good intentions by being an UNCSW member, how can sanctions even be considered 8-)
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby Peacedog on Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:04 am

UN sanctions are kind of like your “permanent record“ in high school. They have no real legal binding.

Having worked for the UN in the past I can say it is really only useful for two things: 1. As a communication forum for people who normally wouldn’t talk to one another and 2. Humanitarian interventions conducted in a politically neutral manner.

In the first case it allows for quiet behind closed doors discussions away from the eyes of the press and the local population. So if Saudi had something to say to Israel.The UN would be a good forum.

The second case would involve inoculating 2 million children against river blindness disease in subsaharan Africa. It would allow a few different countries to pool resources to pay for it and it would avoid the political overtones of it being an American, German, etc initiative.

Outside those kinds of examples it’s largely useless.
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby KEND on Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:10 am

I was watching the video and it occurred to me why was he there in the first case, to get married? He could have done that in a friendly country. Was it a complex conspiracy in which he was willing to die to unseat the prince, were the hitmen ordered by the prince or someone else in the royal family. Something smells here, why was this done so publicly, they could have kidnapped or killed him anytime
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby Steve James on Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:32 am

Yes, a sanction can be nothing more than a slap on the wrist and a "bad, bad boy." Economic sanctions would be done by individual nations or individuals. The U.S. could stop selling certain weapons, or companies could stop doing business. But, I think those would only last temporarily.

Afa the journalist, we know that any concern from the US side is not because he was a member of the media. The question I'd ask is whom his death would benefit and how it would be able to be used. Who will receive aid or support because of it? I can see that the Turks want more support and no sanctions (for actions they've taken). We can safely say that the Saudis want continued support, but some (if not the prince, himself) feel that they will be supported no matter what. It's unlikely that the prince would take credit anyway. We'd find out that it was done by some rogue elements without his permission.
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby Peacedog on Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:45 pm

A little more clarification about Khashoggi

https://pjmedia.com/spengler/german-pre ... ppearance/
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Re: The Saudi Embassy affair

Postby KEND on Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:48 pm

As I predicted scapegoats have been found and no doubt will be executed or accidentally died to protect the prince, and also predictably trump will go along with. A billion dollar contract carries a lot of weight
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