Trump's Trade War

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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby everything on Wed May 22, 2019 8:10 am

Generally speaking, the wisdom of the crowd,
aka the markets, are smarter than individuals, even "experts".

Most experts believe the market is "efficient" in the long run.
That means it "prices in" all available information.
The reason is simple.
If there is an inefficiency, traders will exploit that and do arbitrage.
Which is just making money on the difference.
Because of that, the inefficiency goes away - the trades exist until there
is no spread. Because making money is a time-cconstrained sport (down to milliseconds), the inefficiencies don't last long at all.

If we look at the current "futures" and markets, stocks are up in Asia and USA.
This is because Trump is seen as backpedaling on Huawei.
Which the market seems to think means movement toward trade agreements.
The "information" should include political and jobs info.
Now I'm not a "conservative", and this is fairly standard WSJ/MBA type of stuff, but it makes common sense.
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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby windwalker on Wed May 22, 2019 8:25 am

. This is because Trump is seen as backpedaling on Huawei.


You might try reading a little bit about what's going on.
it's been extended another three months as I understand it to allow them to switch over to a different OS.

Google will not be able to provide them with Android they are being forced to use a different OS for their products that they developed. It's said to be 60% compatible with current Android apps..

This allows them to stay in the markets without disrupting or very little disruption to their customer base

. Android is the go-to operating system for those that aren’t into iOS, but that may not be the case forever. Samsung has been developing its own Tizen OS for some time now, even using it on some smartphones. Now it could be Huawei’s turn: The South China Morning Post says Huawei has been working on an Android alternative.


IMO, a good thing as it allows and develops competition.
Last edited by windwalker on Wed May 22, 2019 8:42 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby windwalker on Wed May 22, 2019 8:29 am

Some reading this might take the time to understand what's going on with 5G, how it operates and what the differences are that many in the US intelligence agencies are concerned with.
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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby Peacedog on Wed May 22, 2019 8:58 am

For those interested, a Linux based phone will be available in the near future. It does an end run around the whole Android vs Apple system. This may resemble the direction Huawei is forced into if Android access is eventually terminated.

https://puri.sm/products/librem-5/
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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby everything on Wed May 22, 2019 9:03 am

I think there are separate issues.
1. Security issues. We (the public) won't really have this info.
If there are some security issues with .gov usage, that is addressed some other way.

2. Political posturing.
Has to do with elections, presumably, or specific business interests.
May or may not have to do with long term interests.

3. Economics issues (that Wall St cares about and Main St depending on which Main).
A lot of people think this ends up hurting Apple revenue in China.
But by and large, that would probably hurt Chinese labor (Foxconn labor).
This is where people don't really understand the difference between an
"American" logo and how international trade and manufacturing works.
The markets probably get all this, except I'm not sure what the abstraction is with "unconventional" presidential behavior.
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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby windwalker on Wed May 22, 2019 9:04 am

Peacedog wrote:For those interested, a Linux based phone will be available in the near future. It does an end run around the whole Android vs Apple system. This may resemble the direction Huawei is forced into if Android access is eventually terminated.

https://puri.sm/products/librem-5/


Very cool, a good and needed development ;)
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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby windwalker on Wed May 22, 2019 9:08 am

everything wrote:I think there are separate issues.
1. Security issues. We (the public) won't really have this info.
If there are some security issues with .gov usage, that is addressed some other way.

2. Political posturing.
Has to do with elections, presumably, or specific business interests.
May or may not have to do with long term interests.

3. Economics issues (that Wall St cares about and Main St depending on which Main).
A lot of people think this ends up hurting Apple revenue in China.
But by and large, that would probably hurt Chinese labor (Foxconn labor).
This is where people don't really understand the difference between an
"American" logo and how international trade and manufacturing works.
The markets probably get all this, except I'm not sure what the abstraction is with "unconventional" presidential behavior.


""unconventional" presidential behavior"


many past presidents noted the same things happening, few really addressed it directly
Its being addressed now "directly" maybe this is what you mean by "unconventional"

The trade imbalance, is unsustainable

dont really understand why some feel the status quo is a good thing.
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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby BruceP on Wed May 22, 2019 2:19 pm

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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby Steve James on Wed May 22, 2019 2:34 pm



Great. Let's continue to check facts.

Fwiw, nobody thinks the "status quo" is good, by definition.
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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby windwalker on Wed May 22, 2019 2:57 pm

. When we reached out to Trump’s campaign, they told us the flags are counterfeit.

"All merchandise made by the Trump campaign are made in the USA," campaign manager Brad Parscale wrote in an email. "There are thousands of counterfeit items made by scammers. These flags are counterfeit."


Some might take note that President Trump, by law can have no direct influence on his former businesses or products made with his name, it's all administered by other agencies that he has no direct influence on.

this means he cannot make changes that are either beneficial or correct problems when it's not.
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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby BruceP on Wed May 22, 2019 3:23 pm

Appeals to authority is why we can't have nice things
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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby windwalker on Wed May 22, 2019 3:33 pm

BruceP wrote:https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2019/feb/27/tulsi-gabbard/tulsi-gabbard/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... rd-numbers



.The US farmer suicide crisis echoes a much larger farmer suicide crisis happening globally: an Australian farmer dies by suicide every four days; in the UK, one farmer a week takes his or her own life; in France, one farmer dies by suicide every two days; in India, more than 270,000 farmers have died by suicide


Interesting, doesn't support the narrative that some are trying to push here.
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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby gzregorz on Wed May 22, 2019 8:55 pm

So you read that whole story to find one or two sentences in an attempt to defend Trump? Confirmation bias?

Sorry Wind no narrative just the facts. The article shows how hard it is for farmers. Sorry it's laughable to take one quote and say this disproves my statements if anything it proves my statements.

Are Trump's tariffs hurting US farmers?

Are farmers on the frontline of the trade war?

Is the rate of suicide among US farmers high?

Has the rate of bankruptcy and suicide declined with all of Trump's winning?

I agree that suicide among farmers and whites in middle America ia high and I do agree that there is a greater overall picture.

But Trump has done nothing for the farmers but con them with his culture wars.

No need to answer but ask yourself this. What has Trump done for truck drivers or coal miners? Has Trump actually done anything for the working man. I have no doubt you can find something amongst the Trump apologists but quoting that farmers have a suicide rate does not debunk the facts that US farmers are suffering.

Interesting book by way.

Image
Last edited by gzregorz on Thu May 23, 2019 7:12 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby gzregorz on Wed May 22, 2019 9:17 pm

windwalker wrote:
BruceP wrote:https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2019/feb/27/tulsi-gabbard/tulsi-gabbard/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/201 ... rd-numbers



.The US farmer suicide crisis echoes a much larger farmer suicide crisis happening globally: an Australian farmer dies by suicide every four days; in the UK, one farmer a week takes his or her own life; in France, one farmer dies by suicide every two days; in India, more than 270,000 farmers have died by suicide


Interesting, doesn't support the narrative that some are trying to push here.


If we are going to compare stats let's compare US farmers to other occupations.

While the suicide rates of Americans in all demographics have been on the rise over the last 30 years, farmers have the highest rate of suicide than any other occupation — five times that of the rest of the US population


https://www.theblaze.com/news/2018/06/2 ... population

I realize that you are trying to give Trump a free pass. But the way I see it as someone who oftens works 12 hour days. Farmers have given up their life to their profession a
(as have I) and the money stopped coming in, they went bankrupt, Trump's trade war only increased the pain and some choose to end it all.

Yes, many factors exists but Trump's trade war in one of them.

For those interested in the book they may find this interesting.

Watch "The Politics of Racial Resentment and the Cost to Health" on YouTube
https://youtu.be/1_91fFhXNqE

The video may give you a better understanding of where I am coming from because it isn't just about Trump.

Trump is just the criminal on top screwing the country over.
Last edited by gzregorz on Wed May 22, 2019 9:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Trump's Trade War

Postby BruceP on Fri May 24, 2019 6:01 pm

Steve James wrote:
Great. Let's continue to check facts



For sure, Steve. That way, you guys don't have to keep moving the goal posts.
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