Automation killing jobs

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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby Peacedog on Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:41 pm

My main reason for being particularly annoyed by this is that I was long involved in a line of work that required prognostication to work best. The results were abysmal. The experts we hired to tell us these things were useless for the most part.

Very occasionally I would see people be right about what was going to happen regarding very focused intelligence applications.

General prognostication was useless. In fact, it was often counterproductive as it led people with real decision making abilities to make really bad decisions. I often, in hindsight, felt this was intentional on the part of the experts. As they were really working to forward their personal interests rather than those they were hired to work for.

At this point, anytime I see someone using the title of futurist, or a like term, I have an overwhelming desire to punch them in the face.
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby everything on Fri Jul 19, 2019 12:53 pm

LOL I can totally relate. Although it sounds fun to be a "futurist" if someone is going to pay you (I guess on the conference speaker circuit) to stay smart sounding shit that always turns out to be wrong. To some extent (in tech) we used to pay industry analysts to make these stupid statements. None of the analysts I worked with ever struck me as being particularly smart (like the smartest people you knew in school), just somewhat smart and having worked in a subsector for a long time with a lot of contacts so they know what's happening at this moment. Then they read an article and make up some shit. If I didn't feel cynical about it (not quite wanting to punch them), maybe it would seem fun.

It's presumably totally different if you have to put your money where your mouth is. Like the VCs may spout a lot of bullshit, as well, but they're actually making bets and making money (on the rare hit) sometimes and totally failing most of the time. I think that's different, though.
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby Peacedog on Fri Jul 19, 2019 1:33 pm

Exactly.

Which is why people who have skin in the game tend to make very measured statements and act accordingly.

The people whining the loudest are all making policy level, or even worse regulatory, statements. All of which are guaranteed to be wrong in hindsight. And I promise you the ones with real money are doing this precisely to steer those new rules/regulations in a direction that best serves their personal interests long before anyone else's.
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby grzegorz on Sat Jul 20, 2019 3:05 pm

Not sure why anyone would want to punch a futurist in the face. A politician I can understand but a futurist?

I basically choose a blue collar job even though I had other options I had no desire to sit in an office all day. KF made me realize that I liked being outside and working hard, perhaps it is a peasant gene.

I can say, which I think SJ is saying on other thread, that automation is taking jobs and not only that but with AI it is "improving" productivity to where 1 person can do what 5 people did. Not sure who else is blue collar here but if anyone is I don't see how they would see things otherwise.

For example just look at trash trucks. They used to go out with a crew who would throw the trash into the trucks and now a mechanical arm and a driver does it all.

I have also seen package warehouses where a machine that looks like Tron swallows up small packages and envelopes and distributes them at lightning speed replacing at least a dozen workers.

I also know the other end because my wife writes code for artificial intelligence. There were things she used to have to do that she no longer does because programs she created do it for her and as result offices at her company close down.

I do agree with Peace Dog that more opportunities are created. Just as ordering online has caused a boom in delivery drivers which has created careers for people who otherwise had little or few options to make that kind of money.

I think people will develop new skills and new jobs will be created but I also think that it will tougher for people with few skills to find a decent paying jobs.

I see poverty going up, drug addiction going up and crime rising in parts of the country that have already been hit hard by factories closing and coal jobs disappearing.
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby Steve James on Sat Jul 20, 2019 4:56 pm

Well, I think there should be a safety net for citizens. Older citizens might not have the time, energy, or opportunity to increase their skillset before retirement --if that's even possible for them. Young people just have no excuse. If they're not learning something, that's on them. It's not easy to get into a skilled trade. You can't walk to a construction site and say that you want to be a laborer and only carry cement bags. Often it's just a matter of who you know, or who knows you.

The people who are worst off are those who are too young to retire, and who have fiscal responsibilities. They have to take what they can get just in order to survive. They might not have the luxury or time for retraining. I mean, someone buys a house thinking he's going to have a steady job. If he loses his job, what happens. It might not be poverty, but he might lose his home.

However, the over-riding tendency today is to "fix the blame" not the problem. Name a problem, and the chorus will rise explaining how "they" or "them" won't let it happen.
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby grzegorz on Sat Jul 20, 2019 5:24 pm

I don't disagree Steve.

I was just addressing that as a blue collar worker I can definitely say that automatiion is taking over our jobs.

I don't see anything alarmist about it (which I think some here and the other thread are suggesting), it is reality.

But yes, we would be better off addressing real issues than having a president who just has "us" blame and attack each other.

In fact I have been told by many that they have Trump supporters in their family who had lost their jobs in printing newspapers and at Kodak (for example) due to advancements in technology.
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby Peacedog on Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:28 am

I dislike "futurists" as they are all con-men and ripoff artists. The reality is that no one is intelligent enough to be able to predict where the future will go. And when these a-holes go around spouting their crap actual policy makers sometimes listen. Frequently with disastrous consequences.

For example, the fact that Paul Erhlich is even walking around free is a crime against humanity. None of the things this murdering bastard predicted came true. None. Ever. But governments worldwide used his bullshit research to involuntarily sterilize and starve to death people by the million, because they believed his garbage. Not that he has ever suffered. He will no doubt die rich and go his deathbed believing he did the right thing. Disgusting.

When working in foreign policy and military circles, you are surrounded by these immoral jerks. And they never suffer any consequences for their bs, no matter what happens to real people. Hanging around UN and NGO types referring to people in Africa as "human pollution" made me what to hose down the bunch with an AK-47. And the more of these creeps you meet the more of this crap you see.

So yes, I am not a fan of people making concrete policy decisions based off of what they think will happen in the distant future.
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby grzegorz on Sun Jul 21, 2019 12:15 pm

To me it sounds like you are talking about alarmists.

We can also argue that those who advocated for the illegal war on Iraq were essentially lying futurists. They had no WMDs. They pick and chose some bad intell, blew it up as the truth, said Iraq would nuke the world so we needed a preemptive strike and attacked a country which had nothing to do with 9-11. (Next, Iran. Correct?)

9-11 was done by the Saudis so that W would close the USAF base there (which he did) and we still kiss their asses while our politicans continue to deny funds for those who cleaned up ground zero.

My shipmates who were lucky enough to return are still suffering from the war on Iraq. Their scars are unseen but many can't hold down a job. You think Cheney gives a [email protected]#$?

If you are going to line up leaders who should be "removed" I can think many who committed actual war crimes we can start with and they're all Americans.

So why not start with our country first? Trial and if found guilty then the chair or life in prison which I see as worse anyway. Since death is just a moment in time whereas life is decades of suffering and then death.

Personally if Bill Clinton, President Bone Spurs or Prince Harry are found guilty of enjoying Epstein's "parties" I think they should get a trial and life behind bars.

Yes, like you I believe in justice.

But I believe automation is absolutely taking our jobs or at least pushing productively to beyond what's physically possible.

It used be that truckers or any route driver, whether delivery or the cable guy or an ambulance could pull off the road during and exhausting hot day and take a cat nap to be refreshed for driving safely but those days are long gone. GPS and electronic scanners keep the company breathing down our necks every moment of the day to where we are expected to perform like robots and we even have a target time we are "supposed" to be done.

If you see a big rig flying down the freeway then get the hell out of the way because AI said he was supposed to be at his cross country destination 3 hours ago and if he isn't he will.be fired.
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby Steve James on Sun Jul 21, 2019 4:00 pm

Automation isn't happening because machines or robots want to take over, and it's not under machine control. If the profit motive is the justification, and using machines is more profitable, machines will be used in order to generate more profit. "How can that be bad?" The economy is going gangbusters now. Right? Corporations (continue to) make record profits. Watch how that is accentuated during the campaign. It's great, and it has to stay that way.
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby everything on Sun Jul 21, 2019 6:27 pm

Well, I want to get rich as well, but this productivity and other factors creates this disparity:

Image

This can be bad for economic growth (if you are a rich owner, you still need 90% of Americans to be able to buy your stuff) as well as bad in social ways (more crime, etc.). Eliminating the middle class - it seems most USAmericans who studied the rise of democracy and decline of monarchy and social classes would be quite uncomfortable with this elimination from both a social and economic point of view.

What about the idea of merit? Sure, Michael Jordan got rich on his talent and hard work. But we shouldn't be so ridiculously naive. Did everyone rich get there on the basis of meritocracy? Of course not. As I already stated many times, it's far easier for money to make money. If/when you're rich, you try to retain this money. Your biggest expense line item is taxes. So you try to minimize that. Executives are heavily paid in "deferred compensation" mostly because that makes sense, tax-wise. Personally after a certain point, I'd also far rather be paid in things like stock options and then pay capital gains taxes instead of income taxes later. What about schools? Thanks to Olivia Jade, Lori Loughlin, and William Singer, we now have some idea of the ridiculous lengths rich people have gone through to try to get their kids into top schools. Below that criminal level are other totally legal, moral ways to do it (that do require 10s or 100s of thousands of dollars), such as elite prep schools, various music, arts, sports lessons and competitions, tutors, donations, buying houses in certain neighborhoods, private admissions consultants costing 50k, etc., etc., etc.
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby grzegorz on Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:04 pm

Thanks for the graphic.

This is exactly what I see happening. Years ago a bridge toll taker was a decent job with good benefits and good pay but now they no longer hire bridge toll takers because it's all automated.

The problem is that as these jobs disappear, although others do appear, the benefits are not usually nearly as good as the old union jobs and forget about finding full medical and a pension.

Jobs come and go but I rarely see new union jobs appearing. It does happen but not often.
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby Steve James on Mon Jul 22, 2019 6:57 am

Unions are not permitted in many states. See https://www.nrtw.org/right-to-work-states/

If the people in those states wanted, they could change their laws. However, they have been convinced that unions are bad for their workers, consumers, and employers. In fact, the cost of living in non-union states might be lower. So are wages, though. Otoh, these states can be great places to retire if one has a pension coming from unionized working.

But Greg, you know the story. People hate unions, but they're the only reason we have weekends, holidays, sick days, workplace safety regulations, etc.
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby Steve James on Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:28 am

Automation? What about brain computer interfaces and cyberorganics. How about neuralink?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_diJS6ILIA
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby windwalker on Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:43 am

Steve James wrote:Automation? What about brain computer interfaces and cyberorganics. How about neuralink?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_diJS6ILIA


Does the interface matter?

With things like fighter jets, high speed cars or bikes, the goal is to erase the gap between user and technology so they are one.

I would imagine some may fear with physical connections there's somehow the loss of free will or control over oneself.

Is this not the case already, with media that can influence and sometimes is blamed for the actions that people take.
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Re: Automation killing jobs

Postby windwalker on Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:09 am

.
But Greg, you know the story. People hate unions, but they're the only reason we have weekends, holidays, sick days, workplace safety regulations


Hi tech jobs don't have unions.

In some cases where jobs were unionized the first action that happens is the employer's reduce the number of people because of the cost of labor. Those left are asked to do more with less but they get paid more.

True, unions did do a lot for the workers.
One of the actions that Cesar Chavez did when he established his Union, was to go down the border and prevent illegals from coming in, understanding what it did to workers wages.

"He encouraged union members to join "wet lines" along the Arizona-Mexico border to prevent Illegal aliens from crossing into the U.S. He accused immigration agents at the border of letting in illegal aliens to undermine the labor efforts of Latino American farmworkers."
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