Recession

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Recession

Postby everything on Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:09 pm

Dunno if you followed the news

There was a yield curve inversión this week

Meaning two year Treasury bonds yield higher than 10 year

It doesn't make sense but means demand for ten year jumped

This usually signals recession within 15-22 months

Meanwhile stocks may go up 15% before that.

No one knows the future but it's still slightly concerning.
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Re: Recession

Postby everything on Sun Aug 18, 2019 8:43 pm

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/14/economy/ ... index.html

Five big economies are at risk of recession. It won't take much to push them over the edge.

The British economy shrunk in the second quarter, and growth flat lined in Italy. Data published Wednesday show Germany's economy, the world's fourth largest, contracted in the three months to June.
"The bottom line is that the German economy is teetering on the edge of recession," said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics.
Mexico just dodged a recession— usually defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction — and its economy is expected to remain weak this year. And data suggest that Brazil slipped into recession in the second quarter.
Germany, Britain, Italy, Brazil and Mexico each rank among the world's largest 20 economies. Singapore and Hong Kong, which are smaller but still serve as vital hubs for finance and trade, are also suffering.
German economy shrinks as 'golden decade' comes to an end
German economy shrinks as 'golden decade' comes to an end
While growth has been dragged lower in each country by a specific cocktail of factors, a global manufacturing slump and a sharp drop in business confidence have made matters worse.
China's massive economy is growing at the slowest pace in nearly three decades as the country wages a prolonged trade war with the United States, which will impose new taxes on Chinese exports in September and December.
"The common feature is the weak global backdrop," said Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics.
The International Monetary Fund last month cut its forecast for global growth this year to 3.2%, the weakest rate of expansion since 2009. It also downgraded its expectations for 2020 to 3.5%.
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Re: Recession

Postby grzegorz on Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:17 pm

So is America great yet?
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Re: Recession

Postby Strange on Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:08 am

even if you can attached 2 or 3 more stomach to your body
and continue eating; there will be a time when they fill up
and you cannot eat anymore
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Re: Recession

Postby grzegorz on Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:40 am

Trump wanted to take a break but China said no!

China retaliates with tariffs on $75 billion of US goods
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Re: Recession

Postby Steve James on Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:10 am

Of course, it makes sense for them to impose tariffs when it will hurt the US market the most. I.e., the holiday season. That's why Trump decided to hold back on increasing tariffs until after December.

Apart from US consumers who buy Chinese goods, this will certainly affect the futures of things like soy beans and farm products. The cost of many farm products will probably go up because of a labor shortage, as well.

The only sure thing is that no one will take responsibility for any situation or apologize for any mistake. China will be blamed, but it's hard to tell nowadays.
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