A sincere hope

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A sincere hope

Postby Giles on Fri Sep 27, 2019 5:20 am

You know, I really do hope that people convinced that human-caused or human-exacerbated climate change is a major threat needing urgent countermeasures are basically WRONG. I also really hope that Bill and Michael and I myself and everyone else in this forum and in the world are still all around in 30 years from now (albeit quite gray and wrinkly). And I hope that those who currently believe that “climate change” is a hoax or just a big bout of mass anxiety/hysteria can then say: “Nah nah-nah! You had it all backwards, getting your panties in a twist over nothing. All those climate researchers, and all those politicians of certain persuasions and all those schoolkids and other ‘normal’ people who believed their warnings and got all upset and went out to demonstrate and made a few cute little lifestyle changes and voted a certain way – they were all deluded. Because here we are 30 years on and the world is doing fine. Global temperatures haven’t risen or aren’t rising to a point where we see that species extinction and ecosystem collapse are not only tragic in themselves but also starting to destroy human societies. Ice caps aren’t melting big time, sea levels are not rising dangerously and weather patterns are not getting much more extreme (and hence dangerous) and low-lying cities and countries are not being threatened or already becoming uninhabitable and being abandoned, or will be soon, and agriculture and basic livability are not collapsing in more vulnerable areas of the world, and countless millions are not migrating from these areas, or attempting to migrate, towards other areas of the world where things are not quite so desperate. And all the big, big suffering and struggles and upheavals and wars and dying that this would bring are not coming about, or starting to happen. And of course other shit is still happening in all areas of life because that’s how it is anyway, but this big feared climate- and ecology-drama just isn’t materialising and we can pretty confidently say that, at that level at least, things are basically quite OK. There was and is no need to get all het up. So here’s a big finger to all the whiners and snowflakes and doom-merchants back then, cos YOU WERE WRONG AND WE WERE RIGHT AND NOW YOU LOOK RIDICULOUS, SO HA-HA, **** YOU!”

Of course that would be a little painful and embarrassing, at least for me personally, and I think I still wouldn’t like many of the other opinions or personalities often encountered together with climate change scepticism/’denial’. But I really, sincerely wish that these people are going to be proved right in 30 years, and that all the scientists and Gretas and so on are going to be proved wrong. And that my young daughter and her children are going to be living in a good environment (in every sense) and can look back at this era of history and shake their heads and smile indulgently. This is not sarcasm or irony on my part. I really hope it turns out this way. I want the scientists and those basically believing them (such as myself) to be proved wrong by events in the future and I want the CC sceptics to be proved right, big time. Including Trump and his circle. If I were conventionally religious I would pray for this. But I’m not, so all I’ll do is hope.

Cue the memes, if you like. It doesn’t really matter :)
Last edited by Giles on Fri Sep 27, 2019 5:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Trick on Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:10 am

next to the UN speaker podium
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby windwalker on Fri Sep 27, 2019 7:58 am

.But I really, sincerely wish that these people are going to be proved right in 30 years, and that all the scientists and Gretas and so on are going to be proved wrong. And that my young daughter and her children are going to be living in a good environment (in every sense) and can look back at this era of history


Don't feel it's a right or wrong issue. Nor from what I've read are there people denying the climate is changing.

What they differ on is the agent of change and whether the change is cyclical. When I was younger they were talking about the coming ice age..

one might want to use the same modeling they currently are using for predicting future changes and see if it can be used to accurately reflect what happened in the past.

What does need to change is population. This has always been a problem and will continue to be one
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby windwalker on Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:08 am

. This is not sarcasm or irony on my part. I really hope it turns out this way. I want the scientists and those basically believing them (such as myself) to be proved wrong by events in the future and I want the CC sceptics to be proved right, big time.


Science is about
Observation, arriving at a theory that reflects and explains what one has observed.


There are many scientists skeptical of the modeling used buy those using the co2 modeling in the climate debate..
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Steve James on Fri Sep 27, 2019 8:55 am

Forget scientists, ask any local weatherman.

"Many" only requires one more than one to be valid. But, let's say that all scientists disagree on the cause of what all can measure are warming oceans, evaporating glaciers, and record high temperatures every year. Let's say that it's not human caused at all. Let's say that storms are not stronger than they've historically been. As it stands, Indonesia is moving its capital because of rising seas. Many people who live in the Florida Keys are moving.

Iow, the results of climate change are the problem. The question is whether people can do anything about it. Burning down the forests to make room for more cows isn't an answer. Eliminating carbon emissions from automobiles won't help. Reducing pollution couldn't hurt. What if cow farts are producing more methane than automobiles? How about reducing the number of cows?

However, there's probably nothing that humans can do to reverse "climate change" now. It just might be possible for us not to make it worse, and it is certainly possible to prepare for the changes that are measurable now. Speaking of back in the day, we used to put lead in gasoline, but some scientist said it was bad for us; so we stopped. Some scientist said that nicotine was addictive, and many scientists said that he was wrong and cigarettes were safe. Yet, we don't smoke in theaters and in hospitals anymore. We used to put hydrofluorocarbons in aerosol sprays because they screwed with the ozone layer. Since reducing them, the layer seems to be recovering. The point is that scientists are often right.

Anyway, this is rarely a matter of whether something should be done. It's a matter of how much doing something will cost. That's why the possibilities of a climate disaster are denied. But, the problem is the automatic resistance to the idea that a disaster scenario could occur. Imo, the cost of trying to prevent a disaster is less than the cost of repairing it. New Orleans had levees built to hold back a cat 3, but were hit by a cat 4 or 5. The Netherlands is a country below sea level, and it hasn't had a flood for a long time.

A Swiss friend of mine sent me a picture of what used to be a glacier. It's scary. I don't have good pic fu, but there have been loads of articles. This is the reality. Whether the predictions are better or worse is something we will see.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Giles on Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:32 am

Trick wrote:next to the UN speaker podium

;D

In which case alongside Ms Thunberg, please. Kind of a dialectic, you know, agreeing with someone and hoping their wrong.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby windwalker on Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:39 am

There are many studies one can pick and choose from.
This post from another site.

. When co2 levels drop below 150 ppm that's when plants start to die (and your source of o2 as well) at the time of the melting of the laurentide ice sheet 11,000 yrs ago the amount of carbon in the atmosphere was at its lowest levels in earth's 4.8 billion yr history and yet the laurentide ice sheet which covered all of Canada and even covered NYC with 2 1/2 mile of ice - that's enough to fit 3 world trade centers end over end, so the question is with carbon emissions from man non exist ant, how is possible that all that ice melted at 180ppm...if carbon was the main driver of climate than we'd have no ice at the poles today but obviously that's not true and according to nasa Antarctica is getting bigger and heavier snow packs that cause ice hanging off the continent to calve NOT CO2....
ENOUGH OF THE HISTERIA!

A PAPER PUBLISHED LAST WK BY TURKU UNIVERSITY(finland) AND KOBE UNIVERSITY (JAPAN)

FOUND 0 EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE OF ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE


It raises some interesting questions that might be used to either confirm or refute whatever side one happens to "believe" be convinced by.

Have not looked at the studies yet . What many seem to focus on is motive behind the studies.
Last edited by windwalker on Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Steve James on Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:47 am

A paper last week? Could you cite a link? However, how does one prove that humans are not part of the cause, at least? Secondly, if it's just cyclical, that means it is happening, just not caused by humans. In that cause, it does seem logical to address it rather than deny it. And, if not humans or cycles, then what is it?
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby windwalker on Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:51 am

Steve James wrote:A paper last week? Could you cite a link? However, how does one prove that humans are not part of the cause, at least? Secondly, if it's just cyclical, that means it is happening, just not caused by humans. In that cause, it does seem logical to address it rather than deny it. And, if not humans or cycles, then what is it?


my point is that no one I know is denying anything...what the disagreement on is the causative agent, and degree by which the agent is or is not attributed to it.
Haven't looked at the studies myself yet..when I do I'll post it..should be interesting....for anyone interested.

“Because the anthropogenic portion in the increased carbon dioxide is less than 10 percent, we have practically no anthropogenic climate change,” the researchers added. “If we pay attention to the fact that only a small part of the increased CO2 concentration is anthropogenic, we have to recognize that the anthropogenic climate change does not exist in practice.”

The Finnish research has been corroborated by research from Kobe University in Japan.

“New evidence suggests that high-energy particles from space known as galactic cosmic rays affect the earth’s climate by increasing cloud cover, causing an ‘umbrella effect,'” the Japanese scientists concluded, noting that this natural phenomenon “has never been considered in climate predictions.”



https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.00165.pdf

for those interested the kobe study should be here

http://www.kobe-u.ac.jp/en/index.html
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:25 am

windwalker wrote:
. This is not sarcasm or irony on my part. I really hope it turns out this way. I want the scientists and those basically believing them (such as myself) to be proved wrong by events in the future and I want the CC sceptics to be proved right, big time.


Science is about
Observation, arriving at a theory that reflects and explains what one has observed.


There are many scientists skeptical of the modeling used buy those using the co2 modeling in the climate debate..


No, there are not "many" scientists who hold this stance, especially not scientists who work in this area.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:31 am

Although it's rare to get students in our classes on human impact on the global environment who doubt scientific consensus, when I do run into them, I usually share with them the Great Acceleration Graphs, which are a handy visual aide in understanding the connections between human activity and effects on the Earth System.

beyond our influence on the atmosphere - i.e. the amount of hydrocarbons we have contributed that led to a measurable Greenhouse Effect - there are the also the factors of human population growth, urbanization, food consumption, land use, and the extensive impact these have had on our planet's ecosystems, effecting everything from ocean acidification and deforestation to biodiversity deterioration.

This is what is refefred to by the IGBP as the "Great Acceleration" - a period in human activity that began with in the industrial revolution in 1750 and has continued to the present. As Professor Will Steffen, who led the joint project between the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Stockholm Resilience Centre, explained: "“It is difficult to overestimate the scale and speed of change. In a single lifetime humanity has become a planetary-scale geological force."

Composed of two sets of charts, the Planetary Dashboard compares humanity's expanding presence on the planet in terms of 12 different indicators (shown above), which include things like economic growth (GDP), total population, foreign direct investment, energy consumption, telecommunications, transportation and water use.

On the other side of the aisle, twelve indicators show the concurrent changes that took place within several major environmental components - such as the carbon cycle, the nitrogen cycle and biodiversity. Taken together, these indicators highlight how the trajectories of Earth and human development are now tightly bound.


https://www.herox.com/blog/177-visualiz ... gbps-plane

Some recommended reading for those on this thread who have commented while also admitting that they haven't read up on the issue. This is a partial list from one of my exam fields which contains both scientific literature and social science approaches (I have only included the easily approached liturature by scientists, but there is also plenty of harder science explaining exactly how the chemical and physical processes link human activity and changes in our environment):

Science of the Anthropocene

Crutzen, Paul J., and Hans Günter Brauch. Paul J. Crutzen: A Pioneer on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Change in the Anthropocene. Vol. volume 50. SpringerBriefs on Pioneers in Science and Practice, Nobel Laureates,. Switzerland: Springer, 2016. http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/11254838.

Davies, Jeremy. The Birth of the Anthropocene. First edition. Oakland, California: University of California Press, 2016.

Ellis, Erle C. Anthropocene: A Very Short Introduction. Very Short Introductions. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press, 2018.

Haff, P.k. “Technology as a Geological Phenomenon: Implications for Human Well-Being.” SPECIAL PUBLICATION- GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF LONDON, 2014.

Kump, Lee R., James F. Kasting, and Robert G. Crane. The Earth System. 3rd ed. San Francisco: Prentice Hall, 2010.

Lenton, Tim. Earth System Science: A Very Short Introduction. 1 edition. Oxford ; New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2016.

Lenton, Tim, and A. J. Watson. Revolutions That Made the Earth. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011.

Maslin, Mark. Climate Change: A Very Short Introduction. 3 edition. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014.

McNeill, John Robert, and Peter Engelke. The Great Acceleration: An Environmental History of the Anthropocene since 1945. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2014.

Rockström, Johan, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Asa Persson, F Stuart Chapin 3rd, Eric F Lambin, Timothy M Lenton, et al. “A Safe Operating Space for Humanity.” Nature 461, no. 7263 (September 24, 2009): 472–75. https://doi.org/10.1038/461472a.

Steffen, Will, Wendy J Broadgate, Lisa Deutsch, Owen Gaffney, and Cornelia Ludwig. “The Trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration,” 2015.

Steffen, Will, Paul J Crutzen, and John R McNeill. “The Anthropocene: Are Humans Now Overwhelming the Great Forces of Nature?,” 2015.

Zalasiewicz, J., M. Williams, A. Smith, T.l. Barry, A.l. Coe, P.r. Bown, P. Brenchley, D. Cantrill, A. Gale, and P. Gibbard. “Are We Now Living in the Anthropocene?” GSA TODAY, 2008.



Social Sciences and the Anthropocene

Angus, Ian. Facing the Anthropocene: Fossil Capitalism and the Crisis of the Earth System. New York: Monthly Review Press, 2016.

———. “Anthropocene Time.” History & Theory 57, no. 1 (March 2018): 5–32. https://doi.org/10.1111/hith.12044.

———. “Planetary Crises and the Difficulty of Being Modern.” MILLENNIUM-JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES 46, no. 3 (June 2018): 259–82. https://doi.org/10.1177/0305829818771277.

———. “The Climate of History: Four Theses,” 2015.

———. “The Politics of Climate Change Is More Than the Politics of Capitalism.” Theory, Culture and Society 34, no. 2–3 (March 1, 2017): 25–37.

———. “Humanities in the Anthropocene: The Crisis of an Enduring Kantian Fable,” no. 2 (2016): 377. https://doi.org/10.1353/nlh.2016.0019.

———. “The Planet: An Emerging Humanist Category?” Critical Inquiry, n.d.

Howe, Joshua P., and William Cronon. Behind the Curve: Science and the Politics of Global Warming. Reprint edition. University of Washington Press, 2016.

Jonsson, Fredrik Albritton. “The Origins of Cornucopianism: A Preliminary Genealogy.” Critical Historical Studies 1, no. 1 (March 2014): 151–68. https://doi.org/10.1086/675081.

Julia Adeney Thomas. “History and Biology in the Anthropocene: Problems of Scale, Problems of Value.” The American Historical Review 119, no. 5 (2014): 1587.

Malabou, Catherine. “The Brain of History, or, The Mentality of the Anthropocene.” South Atlantic Quarterly, 2017.

Malm, Andreas, and Alf Hornborg. “The Geology of Mankind? A Critique of the Anthropocene Narrative.” ANTHROPOCENE REVIEW 1, no. 1 (April 2014): 62–69. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019613516291.

Moore, Jason W. Capitalism in the Web of Life: Ecology and the Accumulation of Capital. New York: Verso, 2015.

Russell, Edmund. Evolutionary History: Uniting History and Biology to Understand Life on Earth. Studies in Environment and History. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011. http://pi.lib.uchicago.edu/1001/cat/bib/11827003.

S. Narain, and A. Agarwal. “Global Warming in an Unequal World: A Case for Environmental Colonialism. - GNHRE.” Accessed May 13, 2019. https://gnhre.org/2014/01/26/global-war ... a-agarwal/.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Steve James on Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:32 am

You know Trump, right? Here's from factcheck https://www.factcheck.org/2016/11/trump ... te-change/
I've heard lots of people deny climate change. If someone wants to find someone who discounts it or its possible causes, it's not hard.

By the same token, I know more than one person who argues that the Earth is flat. The fact that they do does not change anything.

Anyway, as I said, if there is climate change --for whatever reason-- then the question is what should we do about it. Or, what will we do in spite of acknowledging it. If it's not human caused, then what causes it, and what can we do?

I remember when we used coal in our boilers in NY. I wouldn't exchange the air then for now, or the state of the rivers.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Steve James on Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:44 am

Ian, it is ridiculous on its face for people to suggest that billions (more) humans have had no effect. There is not even the willingness to examine what the results of a billion automobile, motorcycle, and truck exhausts on the air, if not the atmosphere. Many people are far more willing to believe that the government pumps chemicals into the air than that we pump far more.

The is a political-economic argument that has little to do with science. If someone believes in human caused (or accelerated) climate change, it has to be because he is a leftist intent on destroying America and holding back its economy. Even China is taking steps to ease the pollution caused by their rapid industrialization. In fact, which industrialized nations aren't?

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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:46 am

Steve, I will not cede the ground on anthropogenic effects. I do agree that there is no consensus on what to do about it. But, as long as people--especially people who are controlling or obstructing political solutions--are arguing that people are not a driving factor, we can be sure that we won't be doing enough.

Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree*: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. The following is a partial list of these organizations, along with links to their published statements and a selection of related resources.
AMERICAN SCIENTIFIC SOCIETIES
Statement on Climate Change from 18 Scientific Associations

"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." (2009)2


https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:47 am

Cross-posted, sorry, my last post was in response to your second to last post.
Last edited by Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Sep 27, 2019 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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