A sincere hope

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Re: A sincere hope

Postby jimmy on Thu Oct 24, 2019 4:34 pm

wow... i'm just glad to hear mckinley's name spoken again in polite company. wish that fella would come on up to the house....

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Re: A sincere hope

Postby BruceP on Thu Oct 24, 2019 10:26 pm

Steve James wrote:Bruce, my point about bona fides was that you seemed to be suggest that climate scientists weren’t aware of geothermal and other reasons for climate changes and glacial melting. But you cite articles from NOAA researchers. That’s way different than ridiculing Greta.

It may be true that glacial melting and ocean warming are not caused by human actions. However, in this thread, there have been arguments that measurements of ocean and air temperatures can’t be accurate, and that climate change is a myth created by people with an agenda. Warming oceans have an effect. Humans have to prepare. Ragging on Greta does nothing.

Is it likely that humans will be able to affect subterranean geological forces? Probably not in my lifetime. I agree that if those forces are the primary cause of ocean warming, carbon taxes and reducing plane traffic won’t have much effect. OTOH, the earth and the climate as we know it is the product of geological forces that have been ongoing and will continue. Climate changes due to geothermal causes are as inevitable as tectonic shifts. Humans have to deal with those changes. It is valid to question the rate of climate change and the ways it has been affected by human activity. We can discuss those issues without talking about Greta or anyone. Well, ridiculing me is fine


Not buying your explanation regards bona fides. I was just making it up...

I never claimed that climate scientists weren't aware of how geothermal flux IS affecting glacial melt. I simply stated that it hasn't been included in the conversation (nor in this thread), and I implied that until it is, the overall climate modeling won't provide a very accurate picture. And I sure as hell didn't say anything about it being a main driver in climate change.

The phenomenon refutes much of the assertion that climate change is the reason ice is disappearing. For those who are having a hard time following along, that does not imply that human activity isn't a contributing factor to rising temps. It's all connected and geothermal flux is definitely a contributing factor in the entropy of climate beyond glacial loss. Its effects are being more closely studied as a component of rising ocean temps. Moreover, it is far from being a localized phenomena as it's affecting more than just glaciers - and not always negatively.


If you bing or ddg "global warming causing greenland (or antarctic) ice to melt", you'll see that lots of misinformation has been bandied for years.

An excellent article on what's happening in Greenland:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-19244-x

A couple articles on Antarctic Geothermal Flux:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35182-0

https://www.bas.ac.uk/data/our-data/pub ... outh-pole/

I wasn't aware of PSi's reputation, politics or agenda when I posted this guy's article. I'd read it a few years ago and PSI's site was the first one it popped up on the other night. On a different webhost:
https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access ... 000345.pdf

Here's an update of the above from 2017 with an attempt to apply the correlations in predicting 2019 temps
https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access ... 000149.pdf



*edited for 'effect'
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby BruceP on Thu Oct 24, 2019 10:30 pm

jimmy wrote:wow... i'm just glad to hear mckinley's name spoken again in polite company. wish that fella would come on up to the house....


Me too, Jimmy

E'en he was always a bit of a liquor snob, I'd still buy him a drink 8-)
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby grzegorz on Thu Oct 24, 2019 10:32 pm

California’s Wildfires Are 500 Percent Larger Due to Climate Change

In New Climate, California's Wildfires Are 500 Percent Larger - The Atlantic

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... es/594016/
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Oct 25, 2019 10:04 am

Not buying your explanation regards bona fides. I was just making it up...

I never claimed that climate scientists weren't aware of how geothermal flux IS affecting glacial melt. I simply stated that it hasn't been included in the conversation (nor in this thread), and I implied that until it is, the overall climate modeling won't provide a very accurate picture. And I sure as hell didn't say anything about it being a main driver in climate change.

The phenomenon refutes much of the assertion that climate change is the reason ice is disappearing. For those who are having a hard time following along, that does not imply that human activity isn't a contributing factor to rising temps. It's all connected and geothermal flux is definitely a contributing factor in the entropy of climate beyond glacial loss. Its effects are being more closely studied as a component of rising ocean temps. Moreover, it is far from being a localized phenomena as it's affecting more than just glaciers - and not always negatively.


If you bing or ddg "global warming causing greenland (or antarctic) ice to melt", you'll see that lots of misinformation has been bandied for years.


But it has been included in global warming models, so your point is moot. Also, it's worth noting that the very studies you posted state that these are local phenomena (for example, see the abstract on the study in Antartica you posted).

Now, I'm not saying that there is not some butterfly effect, nor that such phenomena are completely isolated. But, and here is the main point, these are not new or sudden phenomena and we know that there has been a large degree of systemic equilibrium during the Holocene. It is not always a closed system, but barring massive cooling events such as large eruptions or meteor strikes, the climate has remained consistent during this epoch. What your first link claimed, and what you seem to be wanting to assert (but are unwilling to?) is that man-made climate change is a myth. But, the science on this is quite clear. We understand how and why it happens, and we have also moved beyond models to actual observation. And, at any rate, are you really trying to claim that all the observable melting of ice is due to these localized geothermal phenomena? What about the arctic? What about the Himalayas?

It's also worth noting that climate change is only one of many global boundaries that we are affecting. Phosphorous and nitrogen cycles, ocean acidification, biodiversity, etc...are all areas where we are observing anthropogenic effects on the Earth system. If you want to focus on the ground, that's fine. Humans now move more earth than all bodies of water combined (rivers, tributaries, glaciers, etc).
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Steve James on Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:34 pm

Ah, it doesn't matter whether you buy my point about bona fides or not. I can tell you that bona fides isn't a matter of Googling. On this topic, if you're not a scientist with your own research, your opinion is no more authoritative than anyone else's on RSF. Neither can you know what anyone else knows. It's fine to say "You heard it here first," but you have no idea.

It's true that geothermal warming wasn't mentioned in this thread until you brought it up. I didn't reject it or deny that it happens. I reject the idea that scientists haven't known about it. In any case, it's not something that humans can manage, and it's been happening since the beginning of the planet. It's not a reason to increase any anthropogenic contributions to global warming. At least it acknowledges that something is happening. Maybe everyone is wrong.

None of the arguments you've made about cc legitimizes ridiculing Greta. I doubt that many scientists are making jokes and cartoon memes about her. Nothing you've said changes my opinion about people who do.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby BruceP on Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:39 pm

"seem"...:seeming"...:seem"...project...assume...guess...mislabel(nazi - fascist - moron - redneck -alt-right - denier)...denigrate....debase...put on airs of refined intellect while demonstrating zero ability to elevate a discussion...win!

Dunning and Kruger nodding to each other...
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:53 pm

Your posting of scientific studies that contradict your points while accusing others who know what they are talking about of being illustrative of the DKE is indeed a fine case of projection.

You are the one who started with the name calling with Greta. Who called anyone a nazi, fascist, or moron? I just thought you were a somewhat conservtive guy who enjoyed the outdoors and working with his hands. I don't consider redneck to be an insult. Many of my oldest and closest friends are rednecks and call themselves such. Of course, they don't try and wade into conversations when they have no idea what they are talking about.

Now, you could actually try and answer any of my direct questions. I think the first one was: what did Greta say that you disagree with? Specifically.

It is somewhat strange that conservatives seem so much more likely to apply all sorts of mental jujitsu to deny man made climate change. What's up with that?
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:59 pm

Also, if you don't want people to try and infer what you are really wanting to say, spit it out. You started quite boldly:

Yeah, Steve. More than 18000 posts, one would would think you know what you're talking about all the time - like this time, when you state that people opposed to the climate alarmist kid are just jealous of the attention they're getting. Yeah, envy, that's it, eh, Steve? sheesh...


But when I started dismantling your sources, you backed off and started equivocating.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:11 pm

The following clearly shows that geothermal and geolocial FR are taken into account in climate change models. There are even pictures to illustrate this.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Steve James on Fri Oct 25, 2019 1:20 pm

denigrate....debase...put on airs of refined intellect while demonstrating zero ability to elevate a discussion...win!


:)
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby BruceP on Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:03 pm

Steve James wrote:Ah, it doesn't matter whether you buy my point about bona fides or not. I can tell you that bona fides isn't a matter of Googling. On this topic, if you're not a scientist with your own research, your opinion is no more authoritative than anyone else's on RSF. Neither can you know what anyone else knows. It's fine to say "You heard it here first," but you have no idea.

It's true that geothermal warming wasn't mentioned in this thread until you brought it up. I didn't reject it or deny that it happens. I reject the idea that scientists haven't known about it. In any case, it's not something that humans can manage, and it's been happening since the beginning of the planet. It's not a reason to increase any anthropogenic contributions to global warming. At least it acknowledges that something is happening. Maybe everyone is wrong.

None of the arguments you've made about cc legitimizes ridiculing Greta. I doubt that many scientists are making jokes and cartoon memes about her. Nothing you've said changes my opinion about people who do.


I also reject the idea that some scientists haven't known about it.Show me where it's included in the greater conversation in any 'mainstream' dialogue, though. I'll wait. "oh yeah, we already know about that" riiiigghht

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have no interest in that kid and I have no idea why you keep bringing them into the discussion. Show me where I made a single argument in favor of ridiculing them. In the context of this discussion, and what I jumped into it with, I was pointing to their misguided assumptions of what Canada should be doing in its efforts to mitigate its contributions to whatever their understanding of climate emergency represents.

Did you not see where I quoted them and offered a glimpse of what Canada is dealing with in terms of its geography and distribution of Its people to counter their notions of Canada as a 'developed' nation? From a Northern Canadian's perspective, what I quoted is misguided alarmism which draws the attention of *some* Canadians away from the real climate issues regarding Canada in general, and the Canadian crises I touched on in my first post here. I even wrote about ways Canada could provide solutions to its real, actual 'footprint' and how, as a nation, it can effectively participate in mitigating the global situation. Their message aint one-size-fits-all, and that's what I took issue with. It's just weird that you're so fixated on that when the real discussion has moved on...until you circle back like a chased rabbit.
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I thought we were discussing the concerns Giles raised about the future of our planet and his hopes that the science is getting it wrong. In that vein I'm just presenting info that shines a light on a certain facet of climate change that neither refutes, nor dismisses what is already obvious in terms of climate and the effects humans have on it, while considering other drivers which are contributing to the whole mess.

Our Arctic ice has been so diminished that Atlantic currents are threatening to render it 'nonexistent'. The thing Canadians are worried about is that with the ice goes the prospect of the continuation of our Arctic Soveriegnty - at least in part anyway.

Here's a geoscience guy (maybe he's one of them gotdanged climate change deniers) who thinks geothermal flux is a threat to the Himalays. The jury's still out as there isn't enough data being gathered to nail anything down just yet:

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _HIMALAYAS
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby BruceP on Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:19 pm

Steve James wrote:
denigrate....debase...put on airs of refined intellect while demonstrating zero ability to elevate a discussion...win!


:)


I'll add, ...misquote for honesty... to the next one
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Oct 25, 2019 2:54 pm

Here's a geoscience guy (maybe he's one of them gotdanged climate change deniers) who thinks geothermal flux is a threat to the Himalays. The jury's still out as there isn't enough data being gathered to nail anything down just yet:

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _HIMALAYAS


I think that's an interesting study. But, it's worth noting that the author admits his findings are inconclusive. But, I think it's reasonable to do further investigations into his claims while noting that it has little or nothing to do with this conversation. Here's why it's not really relevant in the grand scheme of things:

The biggest driver of melting glaciers in this area (the third-largest concentration of the cryosphere on the planet) is without a doubt climate change. Here is a rundown on a five year study by 200 scientists on the matter:

lib.icimod.org/record/34450/files/SummaryofHKHAssessmentReport.pdf?version=1

Since the consensus is very strong that we can mitigate the disastrous outcome of a 2 degree increase in global temperature, we can also mitigate what is by far the main cause of the melting of HKH glaciers. We can't do anything about geothermal and radiative forcing from the earth. This brings us back to the idea I put forward earlier: we are largely operating within a closed system. That's why the slow but continuing increase in greenhouse gasses is having the effects it is.

I imagine you have heard the bathtub analogy. Before we were around, the flow from the tap was commensurate with the drain output. But, now that we have increased the input, the tub is filling.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Oct 25, 2019 4:11 pm

Getting back on topic, here's a neat video.

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