A sincere hope

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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Trick on Sat Oct 05, 2019 1:02 am

Fly shame anyone?
The other day I saw something for the first time, it said on the Swedish state owned media that apparently more and more Swedes(well, mostly those who reside in Sweden I guess) feel shame if they find themselves aboard an airplane because airplanes are really bad for the earths beautiful climate.
So SVT(Swedish television(state media) ) had an psychologist giving advices on how Swedes can handle their fly-shame if they really really must go airplaneing.


I myself now and then shamelessly fly, so I’m sure Greta would tell me harshly-“Shame on You”......
So anyone else on this board she could angrily look in the eyes and say “SHAME ON YOU!” . Do you flying guys get aboard with in shame lowered heads ? Or perhaps telling the stewardesses who with a beautiful smile welcomes you onboard they should feel ashamed, and BOOOeing the CPT when he in a friendly voice loudspeaker wise welcomes you? ......8-)
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Trick on Sat Oct 05, 2019 1:17 am

So planet Venus was mentioned in the thread as an example of what can happen to our earth, and it actually is what eventually will happen although in a quite so distant future.
It is argued that we now just speed up the natural process that our aging Sun is to do to us and has already done to Venus. Humans will probably find the right solutions so the earth can calmly await till our Suns heat take action upon us, maybe we are long gone by then, but might be other life here, maybe similar to us.
However, to be exceptionally crass one could argue that since we down to the very smallest particles are a parts of our Sun, we are just the premature sun rays doing what inevitably will be done......sooner or later


Always Look AT The Bright Side Of Life 8-) https://www.stlyrics.com/songs/m/montyp ... 14787.html
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Sat Oct 05, 2019 4:58 am

Trick wrote:So planet Venus was mentioned in the thread as an example of what can happen to our earth, and it actually is what eventually will happen although in a quite so distant future.
It is argued that we now just speed up the natural process that our aging Sun is to do to us and has already done to Venus. Humans will probably find the right solutions so the earth can calmly await till our Suns heat take action upon us, maybe we are long gone by then, but might be other life here, maybe similar to us.
However, to be exceptionally crass one could argue that since we down to the very smallest particles are a parts of our Sun, we are just the premature sun rays doing what inevitably will be done......sooner or later


Always Look AT The Bright Side Of Life 8-) https://www.stlyrics.com/songs/m/montyp ... 14787.html


As far as I know, while that might be the BIG (really big) picture, we are currently just prolonging the current interglacial period and the Earth is expected to enter another ice age well before the Sun heats things up like that. Current estimates are that we have extended the interglacial period by around 15000 years at this point. A massive volcanic eruption or spraying too much silver oxide into the atmosphere are things that could bring about cooling earlier than that.

The tricky part is trying to maintain the very narrow window in which things are fairly stable and most land is hospitable for humans.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Michael on Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:04 am

Trick wrote:Fly shame anyone?

I feel better about it when this kind woman follows me down the hallway of the plane terminal before I board.

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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Steve James on Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:33 am

Ian C. Kuzushi wrote:The tricky part is trying to maintain the very narrow window in which things are fairly stable and most land is hospitable for humans.


Even trickier is that humans can adapt to the conditions they create far faster than many other species of flora and fauna that we simply wipe out. The problem may not be the climate change; the problem will be that resources will become scarcer for people for whom resources are already scarce. This will cause migrations, whether it's because --like the 19th century potato blight-- staple crops are affected, or competitions for them become violent.

One conspiracy theory is that this form of global chaos actually benefits those who cause it. A blazing Amazon rain forest takes away the resources on which the indigenous people depend to survive. If it's replaced with cattle ranches, the natives won't get the beef. And, if there's oil, the Indians will get the shaft.

Oh wait, that's no theory; that's what happens. The denial of climate change is just the covering smoke.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby roger hao on Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:23 pm

A spokeswoman for Team Malizia said it’ll be necessary to fly the crew to the U.S. because the high-profile trip with the 16-year-old Swedish campaigner that left Plymouth on Wednesday was arranged at very short notice.

Holly Cova told The Associated Press by email Friday that “we only have one boat, so they cannot easily sail over to meet them.”

Cova said the team recognises it’s “an imperfect solution” but believes offsetting the emissions by funding carbon-reducing projects elsewhere “is better than doing nothing.”

Many found the situation to be laughable, while others claimed the situation demonstrated the “hypocrisy” of the climate movement.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby roger hao on Sun Oct 06, 2019 9:40 pm

18 examples of the spectacularly wrong predictions made around 1970 when the “green holy day” (aka Earth Day) started:

1. Harvard biologist George Wald estimated that “civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”

2. “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” wrote Washington University biologist Barry Commoner in the Earth Day issue of the scholarly journal Environment.

3. The day after the first Earth Day, the New York Times editorial page warned, “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.”

4. “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Paul Ehrlich confidently declared in the April 1970 issue of Mademoiselle. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

5. “Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born,” wrote Paul Ehrlich in a 1969 essay titled “Eco-Catastrophe! “By…[1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”

6. Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

7. “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” declared Denis Hayes, the chief organizer for Earth Day, in the Spring 1970 issue of The Living Wilderness.

8. Peter Gunter, a North Texas State University professor, wrote in 1970, “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”

9. In January 1970, Life reported, “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”

10. Ecologist Kenneth Watt told Time that, “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.”

11. Barry Commoner predicted that decaying organic pollutants would use up all of the oxygen in America’s rivers, causing freshwater fish to suffocate.

12. Paul Ehrlich chimed in, predicting in 1970 that “air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” Ehrlich sketched a scenario in which 200,000 Americans would die in 1973 during “smog disasters” in New York and Los Angeles.

13. Paul Ehrlich warned in the May 1970 issue of Audubon that DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons “may have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945.” Ehrlich warned that Americans born since 1946…now had a life expectancy of only 49 years, and he predicted that if current patterns continued this expectancy would reach 42 years by 1980, when it might level out. (Note: According to the most recent CDC report, life expectancy in the US is 78.8 years).

14. Ecologist Kenneth Watt declared, “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.'”

15. Harrison Brown, a scientist at the National Academy of Sciences, published a chart in Scientific American that looked at metal reserves and estimated the humanity would totally run out of copper shortly after 2000. Lead, zinc, tin, gold, and silver would be gone before 1990.

16. Sen. Gaylord Nelson wrote in Look that, “Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”

17. In 1975, Paul Ehrlich predicted that “since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rainforests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.”

18. Kenneth Watt warned about a pending Ice Age in a speech. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years,” he declared. “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

MP: Let’s keep those spectacularly wrong predictions from the first Earth Day 1970 in mind when we’re bombarded in the next few days with media hype, and claims like this from the Earth Day website:

Global sea levels are rising at an alarmingly fast rate — 6.7 inches in the last century alone and going higher. Surface temperatures are setting new heat records about each year. The ice sheets continue to decline, glaciers are in retreat globally, and our oceans are more acidic than ever. We could go on…which is a whole other problem.

The majority of scientists are in agreement that human contributions to the greenhouse effect are the root cause. Essentially, gases in the atmosphere – such as methane and CO2 – trap heat and block it from escaping our planet.

So what happens next? More droughts and heat waves, which can have devastating effects on the poorest countries and communities. Hurricanes will intensify and occur more frequently. Sea levels could rise up to four feet by 2100 – and that’s a conservative estimate among experts.

Climate preacher/scientist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez predicted recently that “We’re like… the world is gonna end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change.” You can add that to the spectacularly wrong predictions made this year around the time of Earth Day 2019.

Finally, think about this question, posed by Ronald Bailey in 2000: What will Earth look like when Earth Day 60 rolls around in 2030? Bailey predicts a much cleaner, and much richer future world, with less hunger and malnutrition, less poverty, and longer life expectancy, and with lower mineral and metal prices. But he makes one final prediction about Earth Day 2030: “There will be a disproportionately influential group of doomsters predicting that the future–and the present–never looked so bleak.” In other words, the hype, hysteria and spectacularly wrong apocalyptic predictions will continue, promoted by the virtue signalling “environmental grievance hustlers” like AOC.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Trick on Mon Oct 07, 2019 2:36 am

Ehh, what did they know back in the 70’s. Come on now we are in the 2019, we know everything, we have 5G and stuff, we even stopped going to the moon so we not pollute that one too....
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Trick on Mon Oct 07, 2019 2:39 am

And going to the moon is also a major Fly Shame
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:39 am

roger hao wrote:18 examples of the spectacularly wrong predictions made around 1970 when the “green holy day” (aka Earth Day) started:

1. Harvard biologist George Wald estimated that “civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”

2. “We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation,” wrote Washington University biologist Barry Commoner in the Earth Day issue of the scholarly journal Environment.

3. The day after the first Earth Day, the New York Times editorial page warned, “Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.”

4. “Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make,” Paul Ehrlich confidently declared in the April 1970 issue of Mademoiselle. “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”

5. “Most of the people who are going to die in the greatest cataclysm in the history of man have already been born,” wrote Paul Ehrlich in a 1969 essay titled “Eco-Catastrophe! “By…[1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”

6. Ehrlich sketched out his most alarmist scenario for the 1970 Earth Day issue of The Progressive, assuring readers that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off.”

7. “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation,” declared Denis Hayes, the chief organizer for Earth Day, in the Spring 1970 issue of The Living Wilderness.

8. Peter Gunter, a North Texas State University professor, wrote in 1970, “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”

9. In January 1970, Life reported, “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”

10. Ecologist Kenneth Watt told Time that, “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.”

11. Barry Commoner predicted that decaying organic pollutants would use up all of the oxygen in America’s rivers, causing freshwater fish to suffocate.

12. Paul Ehrlich chimed in, predicting in 1970 that “air pollution…is certainly going to take hundreds of thousands of lives in the next few years alone.” Ehrlich sketched a scenario in which 200,000 Americans would die in 1973 during “smog disasters” in New York and Los Angeles.

13. Paul Ehrlich warned in the May 1970 issue of Audubon that DDT and other chlorinated hydrocarbons “may have substantially reduced the life expectancy of people born since 1945.” Ehrlich warned that Americans born since 1946…now had a life expectancy of only 49 years, and he predicted that if current patterns continued this expectancy would reach 42 years by 1980, when it might level out. (Note: According to the most recent CDC report, life expectancy in the US is 78.8 years).

14. Ecologist Kenneth Watt declared, “By the year 2000, if present trends continue, we will be using up crude oil at such a rate…that there won’t be any more crude oil. You’ll drive up to the pump and say, `Fill ‘er up, buddy,’ and he’ll say, `I am very sorry, there isn’t any.'”

15. Harrison Brown, a scientist at the National Academy of Sciences, published a chart in Scientific American that looked at metal reserves and estimated the humanity would totally run out of copper shortly after 2000. Lead, zinc, tin, gold, and silver would be gone before 1990.

16. Sen. Gaylord Nelson wrote in Look that, “Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”

17. In 1975, Paul Ehrlich predicted that “since more than nine-tenths of the original tropical rainforests will be removed in most areas within the next 30 years or so, it is expected that half of the organisms in these areas will vanish with it.”

18. Kenneth Watt warned about a pending Ice Age in a speech. “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years,” he declared. “If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”

MP: Let’s keep those spectacularly wrong predictions from the first Earth Day 1970 in mind when we’re bombarded in the next few days with media hype, and claims like this from the Earth Day website:

Global sea levels are rising at an alarmingly fast rate — 6.7 inches in the last century alone and going higher. Surface temperatures are setting new heat records about each year. The ice sheets continue to decline, glaciers are in retreat globally, and our oceans are more acidic than ever. We could go on…which is a whole other problem.

The majority of scientists are in agreement that human contributions to the greenhouse effect are the root cause. Essentially, gases in the atmosphere – such as methane and CO2 – trap heat and block it from escaping our planet.

So what happens next? More droughts and heat waves, which can have devastating effects on the poorest countries and communities. Hurricanes will intensify and occur more frequently. Sea levels could rise up to four feet by 2100 – and that’s a conservative estimate among experts.

Climate preacher/scientist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez predicted recently that “We’re like… the world is gonna end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change.” You can add that to the spectacularly wrong predictions made this year around the time of Earth Day 2019.

Finally, think about this question, posed by Ronald Bailey in 2000: What will Earth look like when Earth Day 60 rolls around in 2030? Bailey predicts a much cleaner, and much richer future world, with less hunger and malnutrition, less poverty, and longer life expectancy, and with lower mineral and metal prices. But he makes one final prediction about Earth Day 2030: “There will be a disproportionately influential group of doomsters predicting that the future–and the present–never looked so bleak.” In other words, the hype, hysteria and spectacularly wrong apocalyptic predictions will continue, promoted by the virtue signalling “environmental grievance hustlers” like AOC.


What a silly post. Most of these predictions were predicated on action, and you seem to be assuming that there was no action, while at the same time making fun of mass environmental movements that had, and continue to have, considerable effects on our environment. The 1970s did indeed see "immediate action."

During the 1960s, environmentalism became a mass social movement. Drawing on a culture of political activism inspired in part by the civil rights and antiwar movements, thousands of citizens, particularly young middle-class white men and women, became involved with environmental politics. The popularity of the environmental agenda was apparent by 1970. In that year, the first Earth Day was organized on 22 April to focus the public's attention on threats to the environment. In New York City, 100,000 people thronged Fifth Avenue to show their support for protecting the earth. Organizers estimated that fifteen hundred colleges and ten thousand schools took part in Earth Day, and Time magazine estimated that about twenty million Americans participated in the event in some fashion.

Earth Day was organized by Wisconsin senator Gaylord Nelson, who wanted to send "a big message to the politicians—a message to tell them to wake up and do something." Thanks to widespread public support for environmental goals, the 1970s became a critical decade for the passage of federal legislation. In 1970, President Richard Nixon signed into law the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which required an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for all "major federal actions significantly affecting the quality of the human environment." During the 1970s, twelve thousand such statements were prepared.

Along with the growth of the environmental movement, a series of well-publicized environmental crises in the late 1960s focused the nation's attention on the need to control pollution. Examples include the 1969 blowout of an oil well platform off the coast of Santa Barbara, which contaminated scenic California beaches with oil, and in the same year the bursting into flames of the Cuyahoga River near Cleveland, Ohio, because of toxic contamination. In the 1970s, Congress passed important legislation to control pollution. The most significant of these new laws included the Clear Air Act of 1970, the Pesticide Control Act of 1972, the Ocean Dumping Act of 1972, the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, the Clean Air Act of 1974, the Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974, and the Toxic Substance Control Act of 1976. These laws established national environmental quality standards to be enforced by a federally dominated regulatory process known as command and control. The Clean Air Act, for instance, established national air quality standards for major pollutants that were enforced by a federal agency.


https://www.encyclopedia.com/earth-and- ... l-movement

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/05/7-sign ... ate-action

https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/10-re ... hange-2019

One has to wonder at the motivations behind those who try to undermine conservation and climate action. It truly is a moment to lament Conservatism even in its traditional form. The fact of the matter is that we have no idea which of those predictions would have come true, but we certainly have come close to ending the human species (for example the Cuban Missle Crisis) and the environmental movements had a direct bearing on nuclear treaties and countless other regulations.

Posts like the above are just ::)
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Steve James on Mon Oct 07, 2019 7:36 am

One has to wonder at the motivations behind those who try to undermine conservation and climate action.


Assessing motivation is hard. The reason for throwing out a kitchen sinkload of 50 year-old predictions are clearer: they were collected --by some uncited source-- to make logical debate impossible. It's a rhetorical strategy, and I'll bet that list has seen the rounds quite a bit, and is quite useful. Who has the time to check if the statements were actually made or the context in which they were made?

I was a young adult in 1970, and I recall a lot of dire predictions. I was working in construction on a sewage treatment plant (Perini North River) in NYC for the Hudson. By the time the project finished, the blue crabs and other fish began thriving/existing again. People are now fishing and kayaking. Naw, they won't be swimming. Anyway, the water and air in NYC are cleaner now only because of the "green" movements that started in the 50s. The same movement that was against pesticides like ddt being used to kill insects, and using fluorocarbons in aerosols, and many more positive things that resulted. I'm saying this as someone who actually saw 1970. I remember smoking in hospital rooms.

Meh, rather than debating what anyone said in 1970, how about acknowledging what we can observe.
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There are also countries with water crises and severe droughts, recently and right now. Australia is an example. South African cities were on the verge of rationing water not that long ago. But, my point is not that we can do anything about it. Glaciers move at glacial speeds. However, one can predict what will happen if they continue to recede, and especially if the speed of the recession increases. Oooh, it would make it easier to mine Greenland if the ice sheet were gone. $$$
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:28 am

While I agree it is a rhetorical trick, it's not impossible to debunk it for being fallacious. That was my point. The main premise is: there were all these predictions and they didn't come true. Well, there were many predictions, but they were predicated on inaction. But, and this was my point, there has been much action. Heck, even the Ozone is on its way to recovery thanks to action and policy changes.

But, I think we mostly agree. And the list is bull.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby roger hao on Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:37 am

I think anyone who attempts to predict next ice age is being silly.
Once again I want to make the point that 99% accuracy in predicting
temperature supported by hindsighting is not predicting what the results
will be - that is all extrapolation. The errors enter due to shifting variables
which can't be tracked by hindsighting.
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Steve James on Mon Oct 07, 2019 8:58 am

My point was that exposing a fallacy in form is sufficient in an argument based on reason. I agree; listing 100 wrong predictions from 50 years ago as an argument for "X" is a fallacy. The rhetorical value of such kitchen sink arguments is that we end up talking about the 10 predictions that didn't come to pass rather than even 1 or 2 that did, or what is observable today. Whoever constructed that list did it for that reason. Scientists did predict that the air would be cleaner "if," and it did. I also remember the California water shortages of the 70s, showers that were drips, and orange air. Guess what? It's better now, go figure.
(The last was all rhetoric and anecdotal, but can somebody say different).
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Re: A sincere hope

Postby Steve James on Mon Oct 07, 2019 9:08 am

I think anyone who attempts to predict next ice age is being silly.


Ok, but there was an ice age, no? At one time Antarctica was a tropical paradise. Can anyone predict that it will happen again? I don't know, but it's not really an issue. I.e., glaciers are melting faster than they have been, not indicating an imminent ice age. Melting glaciers does change both the salinity and temperature of the oceans. The colder and warmer ocean temperatures at the poles determine the severity of storms at the equator. The temperatures affect sea life as well. Who disagrees with that?

Predicting the specific results of a 1*C rise in ocean or atmospheric temperature is beyond me. It's also beyond me to say that it can't be done.
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