Report from Shanghai

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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby grzegorz on Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:57 am

...
Last edited by grzegorz on Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:58 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby Trick on Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:18 am

windwalker wrote:
Trick wrote: i follow the swedish news and i try to understand what the swedish government are trying to do, perhaps they as grzegorz say the US governmet are all about wanting to be different and special and hope that it works. the swedish state virologist/epidemiologist saying someting as - quarantine meassures are outdated and not proven to be effective ?? as an quite strange example of "meassure"


Not about "trying " to be different ..The US is different from almost any other society in the world

To understand "why" the response from the US gov, is different one must first understand how the gov. is set up.
The states are essentially the governments who are responsible for their own people.
Each state will have different responses based on their governance.

Over the yrs the states have been abdicating their role in governance...
using the "fed" gov more, and more for things that they as a "state" should be addressing..

In some cases working against the fed gov in others working with...

this is a type of "flu"

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that so far this season, there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses for the 2019-2020 season, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths in the U.S. The CDC reports there have been 54 reported flu-related pediatric deaths this season from Influenza B ...Jan 27, 2020


Kind of amazing when one thinks about it...its just the "flu". :P
yes you are right. its for many to not see that, that the USA is a union of states, something of what EU is too but not yet fully are. the EU president is for now just someone lurking in the shadows aspiring to come out in the light........Yes, "the flu" is also put in the shadows now because of this new corona virus. corona viruses are said to be much more difficult to handle than "regular" viruses because of its 'corona' which i suppose here mean a though shell like structure, difficult nut to crack ?? thats why it get so much attention.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby Trick on Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:33 am

grzegorz wrote: I don't see how 2 weeks off would hurt anything.

if its two weeks off and not out there to be a good consumer some will definitely feel hurt
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby Giles on Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:26 am

It’s just the “flu”.


Well, there are some similarities, but it isn’t the flu. Covid-19 has a higher mortality rate than seasonal influenza and there are no vaccines or other therapeutics for Covid-19, while these do exist for flu. Of course, some flu strains could potentially be even more catastrophic (see 1918/1919) but in comparison to recent and current seasonal flu outbreaks, Covid-19 is in significant respects more serious. And it’s important to realize that flu is still going round at the same as the Corona virus is spreading, and hence creating a double burden.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

The big problem is that the Corona virus, as we have already seen, can spread so fast and have such an effect that it can potentially cause modern health systems to collapse. If too many (mostly older) people become seriously ill at the time time, then all intensive-care beds become occupied and still the sick keep coming (both Covid-19 and other ‘normal’ ailments). While simultaneously healthcare staff and doctors start to become ill as well. As soon as there are no more intensive-care facilities (respirators etc.) available, the mortality rate of Covid-19 can shoot up to 5% or 10% of total identified infections, which means A LOT of people dying if the virus continues to spread.
What's more, the long-term effects of this virus are totally unknown. Theoretically, it could be that people recover from it, then 12 months later it comes back from inside the body and 25% of them die from sudden pneumonia or develop lung cancer. OK, that's almost certainly not the case, it's a horror scenario, but just to illustrate that at the moment, no-one (including the scientific community) actually knows! This virus is new to mankind, it has no track record. So that's another reason to NOT regard this as being just like a seasonal flu.

China was able to keep its healthcare system in Wuhan up and running because, among other measures, they drafted in maybe 1000 extra doctors from elsewhere and built new hospitals in a matter of days. Good solutions, but specifically Chinese in that they have a huge population (and a corresponding number of doctors) in other relatively unaffected parts of the country, and as a +/- totalitarian society they really can “draft” so many doctors. This solution probably isn’t going to be available in most other countries, no matter how developed – when intensive care facilities hit the capacity limit there, it’s end of story.

That’s why measures like closing bars and nightclubs (most definitely non-essential) are not an overreaction. Anything to slow the spread of the virus, flatten out the curve, stop the healthcare system being swamped. Some social isolation measures are possibly not necessary, but quite possibly they will actually help. There’s no reset button for this situation, no “go back 2 weeks in time and play a different scenario”. That’s why it’s better to err a little on the side of safety. -- This is also why Trump’s decision to stop flights from Europe is not in itself being criticized, but rather the way he did it, confronting instead of colloborating/communicating (see provided article).

yes you are right. its for many to not see that, that the USA is a union of states, something of what EU is too but not yet fully are. the EU president is for now just someone lurking in the shadows aspiring to come out in the light........Yes, "the flu" is also put in the shadows now because of this new corona virus. corona viruses are said to be much more difficult to handle than "regular" viruses because of its 'corona' which i suppose here mean a though shell like structure, difficult nut to crack ?? thats why it get so much attention.
??? That's 'interesting'. Where did you get this information? Can you provide any sources?
Last edited by Giles on Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby grzegorz on Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:58 am

Trick wrote:
grzegorz wrote: I don't see how 2 weeks off would hurt anything.

if its two weeks off and not out there to be a good consumer some will definitely feel hurt


Oops, my post was meant for Professor Wang's thread.

I will remove and post it there.

But I am like a Pole anyway. I don't spend money except on groceries.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby grzegorz on Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:14 am

Trick wrote:
windwalker wrote:
Trick wrote: i follow the swedish news and i try to understand what the swedish government are trying to do, perhaps they as grzegorz say the US governmet are all about wanting to be different and special and hope that it works. the swedish state virologist/epidemiologist saying someting as - quarantine meassures are outdated and not proven to be effective ?? as an quite strange example of "meassure"


Not about "trying " to be different ..The US is different from almost any other society in the world

To understand "why" the response from the US gov, is different one must first understand how the gov. is set up.
The states are essentially the governments who are responsible for their own people.
Each state will have different responses based on their governance.

Over the yrs the states have been abdicating their role in governance...
using the "fed" gov more, and more for things that they as a "state" should be addressing..

In some cases working against the fed gov in others working with...

this is a type of "flu"

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that so far this season, there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses for the 2019-2020 season, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths in the U.S. The CDC reports there have been 54 reported flu-related pediatric deaths this season from Influenza B ...Jan 27, 2020


Kind of amazing when one thinks about it...its just the "flu". :P
yes you are right. its for many to not see that, that the USA is a union of states, something of what EU is too but not yet fully are. the EU president is for now just someone lurking in the shadows aspiring to come out in the light........Yes, "the flu" is also put in the shadows now because of this new corona virus. corona viruses are said to be much more difficult to handle than "regular" viruses because of its 'corona' which i suppose here mean a though shell like structure, difficult nut to crack ?? thats why it get so much attention.


Everything Wind said is not true. Sorry not to pick on anyone but these are nothing more than political talking points to help Trump get re-elected by saying he the leader of our country holds is no responsible for any of this. The fact is Trump is completely responsible and fought the CVC's advice on letting the Americans fly back from Japan from the Princess cruise ship full of infected people who were then put on the same plane with non-infected people and sent back here to infect us all. The US is not the EU and is not the individual states who make these decisions but that what is happening because this president is doing nothing just he did with Puerto Rico. Many Americans are still shock and in disbelief how incompetent a reality TV star is as president. They accepted his lies, they accepted in incompetent behavior with Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands never imagining it could happen to the US itself but it is.

Duckduckgo Trump's lies and you will see that the "Corona virus is just the flu" and most everything else Wind says is the same thing that Trump says. No offense to Wind but those outside the US probably aren't aware that Trump supporters just parrot everything Trump says.


February 26: Trump wrongly says the coronavirus "is a flu"

Fact check: A list of 28 ways Trump and his team have been dishonest about the coronavirus

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/politics ... index.html
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:30 am

Yep, one should look at information that others provide




As we said, the CDC told us that’s false.

“CDC did not have to cut back its work from 49 to 10 countries,” said Maureen Bartee, CDC’s associate director for Global Health Security, in a statement to FactCheck.org. “In the FY18-FY20 annual appropriations, CDC received base appropriations for global health security from Congress. This was used to continue the essential public health capacity development in the four core areas that was started in 2014 with the one-time supplemental funds.”



CDC operating budget plans show that its funding for global public health protection — which includes global disease detection and emergency response and global public health capacity — increased from $58 million in fiscal year 2017 to around $108 million in fiscal years 2018 and 2019. (And that does not include any remaining supplemental funds available for use.) The increases included nearly $50 million more each year for CDC’s global health security initiatives.


Lots of misinformation
The news media in In the US is responsible for a lot of the propaganda.

Looking at China and Korea it seems like there is a peek and then starts to subside.
If as much attention was paid to the flu it to would appear to be very scary.
Last edited by windwalker on Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:44 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:36 am

Oddly enough those responsible for the funding and cutting are
now denying responsibility for it.


The claim appears to have been based solely on outdated news reports from early 2018 that said the CDC was preparing to dramatically reduce its work helping to prevent infectious-disease epidemics. Those reports said much of that work on the Global Health Security Agenda, a pact between over 60 nations that began in 2014, had been funded by a five-year, nearly $600 million supplemental package that was dwindling. That one-time funding, which Congress originally appropriated in response to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, ran out at the end of September 2019.



The Trump administration was the one responsible for increasing and refunding
it.

A Lynskey 101 it is interesting how this is used.
Last edited by windwalker on Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby Giles on Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:56 am

windwalker wrote:Lots of misinformation
The news media in In the US is responsible for spreading a lot of in the US is responsible for spreading a lot of propaganda based on an agenda.


Okaaaay, so what aspects of (mainstream) news media reporting on the situation in the US (and in the world) are agenda-based propaganda? i.e. seriously factually incorrect, and also in a calculated manner?

Looking at China and Korea it seems like there is a peek and then starts to subside.
If as much attention was paid to the flu it to would appear to be very scary.


Yes, in China at least the peak has started to subside thanks to the drastic measures and huge extra healthcare resources, some of which I just described in my previous posting. Subsiding for the time being (!). As someone here in Germany wrote today, China has won a battle but it certainly hasn't yet won the war. Once China starts to relax these measures, it's almost certain that the virus will break out again in Wuhan and quite possibly shift to other parts of China. What's absolutely certain is that the virus hasn't "burned itself out" or anything like that. No natural subsiding after a peak. That won't start to happen until 60 to 70% of the population have been infected. And if this happens too quickly, unchecked, then even in China they might reach exhaustion point in the health system as a whole. And this exhaustion point will, as I described, be reached more quickly in many other countries, even if they are 'developed' and 'rich. These countries can't magick lots of extra healthcare facilities and healthcare staff into existence within a week or two.

Maybe you could try a substantive response to my longer posting from 8.26am today.


Thanks for the extra info and reports from your perspective, Grzegorz!
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:06 am

windwalker wrote:Oddly enough those responsible for the funding and cutting are
now denying responsibility for it.


The claim appears to have been based solely on outdated news reports from early 2018 that said the CDC was preparing to dramatically reduce its work helping to prevent infectious-disease epidemics.


Those reports said much of that work on the Global Health Security Agenda, a pact between over 60 nations that began in 2014, had been funded by a five-year, nearly $600 million supplemental package that was dwindling.


That one-time funding, which Congress originally appropriated in response to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014, ran out at the end of September 2019.



The Trump administration was the one responsible for increasing and refunding
it.

A Lynskey 101 it is interesting how this is used.


Kinda weird, some apparently not reading or not able to understand,
and then asking.




Okaaaay, so what aspects of (mainstream) news media reporting on the situation in the US (and in the world) are agenda-based propaganda? i.e. seriously factually incorrect, and also in a calculated manner?


Very interesting watching it unfold.
Last edited by windwalker on Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby grzegorz on Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:14 am

You got it Giles.

Here it is for everybody.

Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump has been comprehensively misinforming the public about the coronavirus.

Trump has littered his public remarks on the life-and-death subject with false, misleading and dubious claims. And he has been joined, on occasion, by senior members of his administration.

We've counted 28 different ways the President and his team have been inaccurate. Here is a chronological list, which may be updated as additional misinformation comes to our attention.

February 10: Trump says without evidence that the coronavirus "dies with the hotter weather"


Trump said on Fox Business: "You know in April, supposedly, it dies with the hotter weather." He told state governors: "You know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat -- as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April." And he said at a campaign rally: "Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away. I hope that's true."

Facts First: Experts were not saying this. They were saying, rather, that it was too soon to know how the coronavirus would respond to changing weather. "It would be reckless to assume that things will quiet down in spring and summer," Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine in Texas, told CNN. "We don't really understand the basis of seasonality, and of course we know we absolutely nothing about this particular virus." You can read a longer analysis here.

February 24: Trump baselessly claims the situation is "under control"

Trump tweeted: "The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA."

Facts First: "Under control" is subjective, but by any reasonable definition, the coronavirus was not under control in the US -- and there was no way for the government to fully understand how dire the problem was given how few Americans were being tested. There were 53 confirmed cases and no deaths on the day of Trump's tweet; as of March 11, there were more than 1,000 cases and 31 deaths.

February 25: A senior White House official falsely claims the virus has been "contained"

White House National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow said, "We have contained this, I won't say airtight but pretty close to airtight." Kudlow said againon March 6 that the coronavirus "is contained" in the US. Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway made similar though less definitive comments the same day, saying the virus "is being contained."

Facts First: Experts said the US has not come close to containing the coronavirus. They also said the small number of tests conducted in the United States had prevented the government from getting an accurate picture of how widespread the virus truly is.

"In the US it is the opposite of contained," said Harvard University epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch, director of Harvard's Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics. "It is spreading so efficiently in so many places that it may be difficult to stop."

February 25: Trump falsely claims Ebola mortality was "a virtual 100%"

In comments to journalists on both February 25 and February 26, Trump contrasted the fatality rate for the coronavirus with the fatality rate for the Ebola outbreak of 2014 to 2016, saying "in the other case (Ebola), it was a virtual 100%" and that "with Ebola -- we were talking about it before -- you disintegrated. If you got Ebola, that was it."

Facts First: While the Ebola outbreak of 2014 to 2016 certainly had a much higher death rate than the coronavirus, the Ebola rate was never "virtually 100%"; for the entire epidemic, it was about 40% overall in the three African countries at the center of the situation. It was higher in the early stages of the outbreak, but it was never true that every infected person "disintegrated."

There were 28,616 "suspected, probable, and confirmed cases" and 11,310 deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

As of mid-September 2014, World Health Organization (WHO) researchers reportedthat there was an estimated fatality rate of 70.8%. But the rate "fell later in the epidemic with lessons learned in improving treatment," said Julie Fischer, associate research professor in the Department of Microbiology and mmunology at Georgetown University and director of the Elizabeth R. Griffin Program. Still, even at 70.8%, death was never guaranteed for infected people, as Trump suggested.

"It was never 100%. That is just patently untrue," Fischer said.

February 25: Trump falsely claims "nobody had ever even heard of Ebola" in 2014

Comparing the coronavirus outbreak with the Ebola situation of 2014, Trump said, "At that time, nobody had ever even heard of Ebola."

Facts First: Some Americans certainly didn't know a whole lot about Ebola before 2014, but the claims that "nobody" had ever even heard of Ebola and that "nobody" knew anything about it are absurd. Ebola was discovered in 1976. It had been the subject of considerable media coverage in the next three decades, not to mention scientific study.

February 26: Trump wrongly says the coronavirus "is a flu"


Trump, contrasting the coronavirus with Ebola, said: "This is a flu. This is like a flu."

Facts First: While Trump may have simply meant that the coronavirus has a fatality rate more like the flu than like Ebola, experts have emphasized that the coronavirus is, simply, not the flu. They are different viruses with different characteristics, though they share symptoms, and the coronavirus has a higher mortality rate.

Experts say the mortality rate for the coronavirus is much higher than the approximately 0.1% rate for the seasonal flu, though the exact rate for the coronavirus is not yet known. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told Congress on March 11 that it is "10 times" that of the flu's 0.1%.

As World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said March 3, the coronavirus "causes more severe disease than seasonal influenza. While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease."

Also, the behavior of the flu over the course of a year is pretty well-understood, while the behavior of the coronavirus over time is not yet known. And while there are flu vaccines available, there is no vaccineavailable for the coronavirus (and no proven treatment).

February 26: Trump baselessly predicts the number of US cases is "going very substantially down" to "close to zero"

Trump said: "I think every aspect of our society should be prepared. I don't think it's going to come to that, especially with the fact that we're going down, not up. We're going very substantially down, not up." And he said: "And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."

Facts First: Clearly, the number of US cases and deaths was going up, not down. As the New York Times noted in its own fact check, both Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Principal Deputy Director Dr. Anne Schuchat said at the same press conference that they expected "more cases."

There were 60 total cases in the US on the day Trump spoke here. The "15 people" referred to the cases that did not involve people who had been on the Diamond Princess cruise ship or who had been repatriated from China.

February 26: Trump wrongly says the flu death rate is "much higher" than Dr. Sanjay Gupta said

Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN chief medical correspondent, told Trump, "Mr. President, you talked about the flu and then in comparison to the coronavirus. The flu has a fatality ratio of about 0.1%." Trump said, "Correct." But Trump later disputed the figure, saying, "And the flu is higher than that. The flu is much higher than that." -- February 26 coronavirus press conference

Facts First: Gupta was right, Trump was wrong. Even if Trump meant that the flu has a "much higher" fatality rate than 0.1% -- rather than meaning that the flu's mortality rate is "much higher" than that of the novel coronavirus -- he was wrong, according to Fauci, other experts and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.

February 27: Trump baselessly hints at a "miracle"

Trump said: "It's going to disappear. One day -- it's like a miracle -- it will disappear. And from our shores, we -- you know, it could get worse before it gets better. It could maybe go away. We'll see what happens. Nobody really knows. The fact is, the greatest experts -- I've spoken to them all. Nobody really knows." He made similar comments later in the outbreak, saying on March 10, "It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away."

Facts First: There was no apparent basis for Trump's claim that the virus will miraculously "disappear." (He did immediately soften the claim by saying "nobody really knows," but still.)

February 28: Trump baselessly hints at an immigration link to the virus

Trump said: "The Democrat policy of open borders is a direct threat to the health and well-being of all Americans. Now you see it with the coronavirus, you see it. You see it with the coronavirus."

Facts First: Prominent Democrats do not support "open borders," literally unrestricted migration. Aside from that, though, there was no evidence from the coronavirus situation that Democrats' preferred immigration policies would be harmful to Americans' health. There was no known US case in which someone brought the virus to the US while immigrating or making an asylum claim.

February 29: Trump exaggerates Tim Cook's comments about Apple and China

Trump said: "And if you read, Tim Cook of Apple said that they are now in full operation again in China." Trump also said: "You probably saw that -- as I mentioned, Tim just came out and he said Apple is back to normal in terms of production in their facilities in China. They've made a lot of progress."

Facts First: Trump was overstating what Cook told Fox Business. Cook had not said Apple's production in China was "back to normal" or that plants in China were in "full operation." Rather, he said that plants in China were "getting back to normal."

"When you look at the parts that are done in China, we have reopened factories, so the factories were able to work through the conditions to reopen. They're reopening. They're also in ramp, and so I think of this as sort of the third phase of getting back to normal. And we're in phase three of the ramp mode," Cook said.

March 1: Azar wrongly says 3,600 people have been tested

Azar said: "In terms of testing kits, we've already tested over 3,600 people for the virus."

Facts First: Politico reported: "Two days later, CDC Principal Deputy Director Anne Schuchat told the Senate health committee that her agency had tested more than 3,000 specimens taken from roughly 500 people — a fraction of what Azar claimed." Politico reported that a Health and Human Services spokesperson explained that Azar had meant to say that the CDC had processed more than 3,600 tests, not that it had tested more than 3,600 people.

March 2: Trump falsely claims "nobody knew" the number of US flu deaths

Trump said: "You know, three, four weeks ago, I said, 'Well, how many people die a year from the flu?' And, in this country, I think last year was 36- or 37,000 people. And I'm saying, 'Wow, nobody knew that information.'" He said at a campaign rally: "So when you lose 27,000 people a year, nobody knew that. I didn't know that."

Facts First: Trump might not have known the number of annual flu deaths in the US, but that doesn't mean "nobody" else did. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention publishes annual estimates on its website.

The CDC estimates that between 12,000 and 61,000 people have died in the US in each flu season between 2010-2011 and 2018-2019; its preliminary figure for 2018-2019 is 34,157 deaths.

March 2: Trump says a vaccine is coming "relatively soon"

Trump said: "We had a great meeting today with a lot of the great companies and they're going to have vaccines, I think relatively soon. And they're going to have something that makes you better and that's going to actually take place, we think, even sooner."

Facts First: "Relatively soon" is too vague a phrase to call this claim false, but Trump did not mention that Fauci had told himearlier that day that a vaccine was "a year to a year and a half" away. Fauci similarly told the Senate the next day that the process of getting a vaccine ready to deploy "will take at least a year and a year and a half."

March 4: Trump falsely claims Obama impeded testing

Trump claimed he had reversed a decision by President Barack Obama's administration that had impeded testing for the coronavirus, saying that "the Obama administration made a decision on testing that turned out to be very detrimental to what we're doing. And we undid that decision a few days ago so that the testing can take place in a much more accurate and rapid fashion. That was a decision we disagreed with." He said on March 5: "They made some decisions which were not good decisions...We undid some of the regulations that were made that made it very difficult, but I'm not blaming anybody."

Facts First: There is no Obama-era decision or rule that impeded coronavirus testing. The Obama administration did put forward a draft proposal related to lab testing, but it was never implemented.

When asked what Obama administration decision Trump might be referring to, Peter Kyriacopolous, chief policy officer at the Association of Public Health Laboratories, said: "We aren't sure what rule is being referenced."

Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, who was principal deputy commissioner of the FDA under Obama and is now professor of the practice at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said, "There wasn't a policy that was put into place that inhibited them. There was no Obama policy they were reversing."

March 4: Trump wrongly says as many as 100,000 people died of the flu in 1990

Speaking about deaths from the flu, Trump said on March 4: "I think we went as high as 100,000 people died in 1990, if you can believe that." He said on March 6 that as many as 77,000 people might die in a given year, then added: "And I guess they said, in 1990, that was in particular very bad; it was higher than that."

Facts First: While the 1989-1990 flu season was considered bad at the time -- the CDC declared that it was an epidemic -- Trump greatly overstated the number of deaths. A CDC analysis in 2010 estimated that there were 26,582 deaths from the seasonal flu in 1989-1990. (The same analysis found that this number of deaths was exceeded in nine of the 17 subsequent flu seasons through 2006-2007.)

March 4: Trump says "the borders are automatically shut down"

Trump said during a meeting with airline chief executives: "And we're talking about the effects of the virus on air travel and what they see. In a certain way, you could say that the borders are automatically shut down, without having to say 'shut down.' I mean, they're, to a certain extent, automatically shut down."

Facts First: Trump did not explain what he meant by "the borders are automatically shut down." Trump's travel restrictions on China do not constitute a complete border closure even on China in particular.

Trump's China policy prohibits entry into the US by non-Americans who have been in China within 14 days -- but it makes exceptions for immediate family members of American citizens and permanent residents. And American citizens themselves are free to go back and forth.

Returning citizens who have been in Hubei Province in the previous 14 days are subject to up to 14 days of mandatory quarantine, while citizens who have been in the rest of mainland China in the previous 14 days "will undergo proactive entry health screening at a select number of ports of entry and up to 14 days of monitored self-quarantine," Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said. Still, this is not a shutdown.

March 4: Trump says he believes there was a coronavirus death in New York, though there hadn't been one

Trump said: "And then, when you do have a death, like you have had in the state of Washington, like you had one in California -- I believe you had one in New York..."

Facts First: There had not been any New York deaths attributed to the coronavirus at the time. (There still had not been any as of the morning of March 11, seven days later.)

March 4: Trump falsely claims the Obama administration "didn't do anything" about H1N1

Trump said of H1N1, also known as swine flu: "And they didn't do anything about it."

Facts First: The Obama administration did respond to H1N1. On April 26, 2009, less than two weeks after the first US cases of H1N1 were confirmed, the Obama administration declared a public health emergency. Two days later, the Obama administration made an initial $1.5 billion funding request to Congress. (Congress ultimately allocated $7.7 billion). In October 2009, Obama declareda national emergency to allow hospitals more flexibility for a possible flood of H1N1 patients.

The Obama administration did face criticism over the pace of the government's vaccination effort, but "they didn't do anything" is clearly false.

March 5: Trump misleadingly describes a Gallup poll

Trump tweeted: "Gallup just gave us the highest rating ever for the way we are handling the CoronaVirus situation." Pointing to the Gallup poll again at a Fox News town hall the same day, he said the administration got "tremendous marks" in the poll "for the way we've handled it."

Facts First: The Gallup poll was positive for Trump, as 77% percent of respondents did say they had confidence in the federal government's ability to handle a coronavirus outbreak. But it was not a poll about how the administration had handled the situation: the poll asked about confidence in the federal government's future acts, not about its actual work to date. Critically, it was conducted from February 3-16, when there were far fewer reported cases and reported US deaths; Trump was still, at minimum, 10 days away from appointing Vice President Mike Pence as his point man on the response.

A Quinnipiac University poll conducted March 5-8 found that 43% of registered voters approved of the way Trump was handling the coronavirus response, 49% disapproved. When the poll asked about confidence in "the federal government" to handle the response, 53% said they had confidence, 43% said they didn't.

March 5: Trump wrongly claims the virus only hit the US "three weeks ago"

Trump said, "We got hit with the virus really three weeks ago, if you think about it, I guess. That's when we first started really to see some possible effects."

Facts First: The US had its first confirmed case of the coronavirus on January 21, more than six weeks before Trump spoke here.

March 6: Azar wrongly claims there is no test shortage

Azar said: "There is no testing kit shortage, nor has there ever been."

Facts First: Vice President Mike Pence had said the day prior: "We don't have enough tests today to meet what we anticipate will be the demand going forward." Doctors, health authorities and elected officials in various locations around the country indeed said they did not have enough tests.

March 6: As the number of cases and deaths in Italy rises, Trump says the number is "getting much better"

Trump said: "...I hear the numbers are getting much better in Italy."

Facts First: The number of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths in Italy was continuing to increase at the time Trump made this comment. As of Saturday, March 7, the day after Trump spoke here, Italy had 5,883 confirmed cases and 233 deaths; as of Monday, March 9, there were 9,172 cases and 463 deaths. (The Italian government announced a national lockdown on Monday.)

March 6: Trump falsely claims anybody can get tested if they want

Trump said: "Anybody that wants a test can get a test. That's what the bottom line is."

Facts First: That wasn't true. There were an insufficient number of tests available, as Pence said the day prior, and Americans could not get tested simply because they wanted to get tested. "You may not get a test unless a doctor or public health official prescribes a test," Azar said the day after Trump's remark. (Azar claimed Trump was using "shorthand" for the fact that "we as regulators, or as those shipping the test, are not restricting who can get tested.")

March 6: Trump exaggerates the number of people on the Grand Princess cruise ship

Trump said, of the Grand Princess cruise ship being kept in limbo over coronavirus concerns, "We do have a situation where we have this massive ship with 5,000 people and we have to make a decision." He later amended the claim slightly, "It's close to 5,000 people."

Facts First: Trump was overstating the numbers. There were 3,533 peopleaboard the Grand Princess: 2,422 guests and 1,111 crew members.

March 6: Trump falsely says US coronavirus numbers "are lower than just about anybody"

Trump said that "we have very low numbers compared to major countries throughout the world. Our numbers "are lower than just about anybody."

Facts First: Trump was exaggerating. The US did have fewer confirmed coronavirus cases than some countries, including China, Italy, Iran, South Korea, France and Germany. But it had more confirmed cases than big-population countries like India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Russia and Nigeria, plus neighbors Mexico and Canada, plus many other high-income countries.

In addition, the number of confirmed cases is dependent on how many people are tested. The US was conducting fewer tests than some countries with much smaller populations.

March 6: Trump baselessly muses that "maybe" the coronavirus improved US jobs numbers

Trump touted the jobs report for February, which showed a gain of 273,000 jobs. He then said that, instead of traveling abroad, "I think, you know, a lot of people are staying here and they're going to be doing their business here." He continued, "And maybe that's one of the reasons the job numbers are so good. We've had a lot of travel inside the USA."

Facts First: We can't definitively call this false, but there's no evidence to back it up. Reports suggest the domestic travel industry is also being hurt by the coronavirus.

In March, US airlines announced they were reducing domestic flights as well as international flights in March, and companies called off US conferences and limiting corporate travel. While industry experts said some particular domestic travel destinations could possibly benefit if the virus causes travelers to opt for local trips rather than international trips, there is no hard evidence for that yet.

March 9: Pence says Trump's "priority" was getting Americans off the ship

Vice President Mike Pence said "the President made the priority to get -- to get the Americans ashore."

Facts First: Trump may have eventually been convinced to get the Americans ashore, but he had said three days prior to this Pence claim that he wanted passengers to stay on the ship so that "the numbers" of US coronavirus cases would stay low.

"I have great experts, including our Vice President, who is working 24 hours a day on this stuff. They would like to have the people come off. I'd rather have the people stay, but I'd go with them. I told them to make the final decision. I would rather -- because I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship," Trump said on March 6. "That wasn't our fault, and it wasn't the fault of the people on the ship, either. OK? It wasn't their fault either. And they're mostly Americans, so I can live either way with it. I'd rather have them stay on, personally. But I fully understand if they want to take them off. I gave them the authority to make the decision."

Last edited by grzegorz on Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:37 am

Subsiding for the time being (!). As someone here in Germany wrote today, China has won a battle but it certainly hasn't yet won the war. Once China starts to relax these measures, it's almost certain that the virus will break out again in Wuhan and quite possibly shift to other parts of China. What's absolutely certain is that the virus hasn't "burned itself out" or anything like that.



Wow so much certainty for someone outside of China.

@trick, hope you can continue to provide a viewpoint from someone who is there on the ground.
With as much ”certainty” as you can from your view point.

Thoughts,
to you and your family and those you know to remain safe.
Last edited by windwalker on Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:39 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby Giles on Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:58 pm

Sorry, Windwalker, you don't reply to arguments. You obfuscate.

You object to my remark about the strong possibility of the Corona virus flaring up again in China after the lockdown is ended by saying that I don't live in China. That's actually a sort of ad hominen argument: my reasoning (well, actually the reasoning of various science writers and virologists) cannot be accepted because I live somewhere else. :P
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby everything on Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:11 pm

it's good to hear that life is somewhat resuming in China.

however, we don't really have any idea what things will be like / could be like going forward...
- if you have recovered, do you stop being contagious
- isn't the exponential spread risk of starting again still high if people let their social distance guard down?
- possible vaccines are a year away at best?
- if so don't we still need good social distancing?
- will those be effective enough to permanently "flatten the curve"?
- how about more mutations?
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby grzegorz on Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:23 pm

Yeah, I have to wonder too. If this is as highly contagious, which it is, then how are they going to stop it from coming back without a vaccine?

I know this much, the party is over in the US. If we thought the last recession was bad...forget about it!
Last edited by grzegorz on Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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