Report from Shanghai

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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:41 pm

Giles wrote:Sorry, Windwalker, you don't reply to arguments. You obfuscate.

You object to my remark about the strong possibility of the Corona virus flaring up again in China after the lockdown is ended by saying that I don't live in China. That's actually a sort of ad hominen argument: my reasoning (well, actually the reasoning of various science writers and virologists) cannot be accepted because I live somewhere else. :P


"strong possibility". wow must be news speak,,,,"certainty" is now strong possibility

no need to be sorry,
you and some others seem more concerned with expressing your political viewpoints regarding the present administration.

not really to be looking for information,,,or even suggesting counter measures, got it :P

organizations and public figures have made the false claim that the Trump administration cut the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s anti-pandemic work in over 40 countries to just 10. The CDC told us that’s not true.


It’s been posted some can’t see it




Having went through and participated in something like this back in the 70s H1N1
the steps being taken now, historical in closing travel from some countries
in an effort to stop the influx of new carriers , while at the same time working to contain it or flatten the peak load in the US,
so it doesn't overwhelm the medical systems.


It remains to be seen how bad this virus will be compared to others before it.

Flu is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses that infect the nose, throat, and sometimes the lungs. It can cause mild to severe illness, and at times can lead to death.
The best way to prevent flu is by getting a flu vaccine each year.


COVID-19 is a respiratory illness caused by a new strain of a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2.
This pandemic started in China, but has now spread to many countries, including the United States.


In time this "new" to humans "virus". may be looked on like the other "viruses" commonly called the flu...
Last edited by windwalker on Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:18 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby LaoDan on Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:43 pm

everything wrote:it's good to hear that life is somewhat resuming in China.

however, we don't really have any idea what things will be like / could be like going forward...
- if you have recovered, do you stop being contagious
- isn't the exponential spread risk of starting again still high if people let their social distance guard down?
- possible vaccines are a year away at best?
- if so don't we still need good social distancing?
- will those be effective enough to permanently "flatten the curve"?
- how about more mutations?

I am no authority, but I am a scientist (for whatever that may be worth), so I will give my best go for your questions.
- Once recovered you should no longer be contagious, just like other viral infections (unless there is something unusual about this particular one that we do not know about yet).
- I would think that the spread risk would be similar, at least until a large enough population has developed immunity (through having been exposed and having fought it off with one’s own antibodies during recovery). Those who have not been exposed will still not have antibodies produced in their bodies to fight off any infection (and there is no vaccine that can be taken to confer protection).
- Yes, possible vaccines are too far off to help with this year’s outbreak.
- Yes we still need good social distancing to slow the spread to vulnerable populations. Remember, even if you are young and healthy, you have no immunity to the virus. If you become infected, even if you are not significantly effected (mild or no symptoms, no need for hospitalization...), you will become a carrier who can pass the virus on to other individuals (who also have no immunity).
- I don’t know this, but many people seem to hate the inconvenience and changed routines, and many seem to therefore be lax in their precautions, so the spread will likely continue at some continuing unpredictable rate.
- Mutations also typically take time, which is why we can try to predict which strains of seasonal flu are likely each year, and make best estimates for proper vaccines (although the uncertainty leads to variable effectiveness of the annual flu shots). We likely will have other mutations over time, but we cannot predict when those will occur.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:17 pm

Up to date information

Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins


https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:44 pm

Image

The current estimate for the fatality rates on the coronavirus just don’t add up. The estimates based on current data are completely inaccurate. Current data shows that this virus is much less deadly that even the common flu from the 2019-2020 season.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... ing-again/


Interesting data point if true....
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby everything on Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:48 pm

Here are some good charts using Johns Hopkins and WHO data.
https://blog.datawrapper.de/coronaviruscharts/

If your country of residence is in these charts, or if not, it'd be good to hear how things are going there...
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby Giles on Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:04 am

I'll keep it short, to the point and non-political ;)

(Or if postings in this thread should really only relate to China and not to the (threatened) pandemic, then I guess we need a new thread.)

Anyway: In Germany the top advisory expert body in the coronavirus situation is the Robert Koch Institute: "the German federal government agency and research institute responsible for disease control and prevention. As an upper federal agency, it is subordinate to the Federal Ministry of Health." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Koch_Institute
RKI homepage: https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html

The Institute's director, Lothar Wieler, just made the following statement with regard to Covid-19 and Germany: "If we don't manage to slow the spread, we can expect to have several million cases of illness in the coming months." That doesn't mean millions of life-threatening cases or millions of deaths, but this would still produce enough sufficiently serious cases requiring urgent treatment to cause the overloading and collapse of the German health system. It's simple mathematics.
That's why the fairly drastic, and highly inconvenient, measures make sense.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby LaoDan on Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:51 am

windwalker wrote:Image

The current estimate for the fatality rates on the coronavirus just don’t add up. The estimates based on current data are completely inaccurate. Current data shows that this virus is much less deadly that even the common flu from the 2019-2020 season.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... ing-again/


Interesting data point if true....

I am not certain what point is being made by comparing COVID-19 with the seasonal flu, but it was not the seasonal flu that overwhelmed the Italian healthcare system, it was COVID-19 – so you seem to be missing the point. If you try to address why the COVID-19 virus has a different impact on a country’s health care system than the seasonal flu, then you may be on track.

Hint: Seasonal flu affects a population with varying degrees of immunity (immune systems with antibodies available to fight an infection when exposed, through previous exposures or vaccines) vs. a population with NO immunity.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:09 am

LaoDan wrote:
windwalker wrote:Image

The current estimate for the fatality rates on the coronavirus just don’t add up. The estimates based on current data are completely inaccurate. Current data shows that this virus is much less deadly that even the common flu from the 2019-2020 season.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... ing-again/


Interesting data point if true....

I am not certain what point is being made by comparing COVID-19 with the seasonal flu, but it was not the seasonal flu that overwhelmed the Italian healthcare system, it was COVID-19 – so you seem to be missing the point. If you try to address why the COVID-19 virus has a different impact on a country’s health care system than the seasonal flu, then you may be on track.

Hint: Seasonal flu affects a population with varying degrees of immunity (immune systems with antibodies available to fight an infection when exposed, through previous exposures or vaccines) vs. a population with NO immunity.


You might try reading the article.
Point for me was the reporting that is done on the flu versus the new virus strain and the impact that it has.
Any medical system can be overwhelmed if people panic or made to panic and use it, just as the items that people buy in stores Can be thought of as in short supply if everybody tries to buy them at the same time.

Hint: At some point in time all things of population is exposed to is new, before it develops an immunity to it,
or a vaccination is made for it
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:11 am

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

website to track it

Look at the recovery rates
Last edited by windwalker on Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby LaoDan on Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:14 am

Individual risk is different than community risk. If all you care about is your own risk from seasonal flu vs. COVID-19, then you are ignoring the potential effects on other people. To me that seems rather selfish, heartless and antisocial, but if that is your personality, then I am unlikely to change it.

If one takes a socially uncaring viewpoint, then perhaps they can do things that endanger others. One may think that their risks are low and it is the other person’s fault if they are more vulnerable, or one may think that their faith will protect them and it is God’s will if someone else gets infected, etc. But I prefer to be more socially responsible, even if it causes inconveniences to me personally, in order to help protect those that are more vulnerable than I personally may be. I try to avoid harming others.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:51 am

But I prefer to be more socially responsible, even if it causes inconveniences to me personally, in order to help protect those that are more vulnerable than I personally may be. I try to avoid harming others.


Wow a real hero.

As I mentioned I was an army field medic in Germany when they have the
H1N1. We administer the vaccinations, the vaccinations themselves knocked out about half the battalion a battalion being about 700 people. The vaccination itself killed according to reports around 30 people and caused bad reactions and many others. It was pushed because the media at the time was demanding something to be done that wasn’t quite ready.

The point of the article is that the way things are being reported it can cause a panic over and above the actual threat level.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby LaoDan on Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:59 am

You have already shown me that you lack a basic understanding of statistics, so these comments are for other readers of this thread instead. The article (and table) chooses to focus on CONFIRMED cases in order to make their statistics more favorable to the point that they are attempting to make. Therefore the fatality rate for seasonal flu would be 22,000/222,522 = 10%. But the seasonal flu has been around for a long time and statisticians are able to estimate fairly accurately the number of ACTUAL cases (whether confirmed or not) which they give as 36,000,000. 22,000/36,000,000 = less than 0.1%. We know that many people who catch the seasonal flu will not have tests that will confirm it, but they will stay home until recovered, or verify only with temperature measurements (high fever) without getting a test to confirm that it is indeed the flu virus, etc.

The death rate for the COVID-19 virus is currently almost certainly overestimated because we lack the estimate of how many people are likely infected without being confirmed. This is one of the reasons that the scarcity of testing supplies is so damaging in this situation. It means that we are not capable of providing truly accurate data. We are just relying on the best information that we currently have.

If one wanted to estimate the lethality of the COVID-19 virus based on current data, then one could look at the deaths of confirmed vs. the recovered for confirmed cases (rather than trying to estimate).

The statistics in the article are faulty because they either need to divide the number of deaths of individuals CONFIRMED, prior to their death, to have had the seasonal flu (i.e., a fraction of the total deaths), and divide that by the number of confirmed cases. What is typically done is to divide the total deaths by the ESTIMATED total infections. The article’s method is invalid. They are dividing the total deaths by a fraction of the total cases. This is inaccurate statistics! The article is bogus!
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby Giles on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:03 am

windwalker wrote:Any medical system can be overwhelmed if people panic or made to panic and use it, just as the items that people buy in stores Can be thought of as in short supply if everybody tries to buy them at the same time.


This statement beggars belief. Really, I had to read it several times to make sure I wasn't misunderstanding you. But this is what you imply: the medical system in Northern Italy has become overwhelmed because of 'people panicking'. Meaning that they are going for treatment, and presumably also receiving it, when that's unnecessary.

The medical system in Northern Italy has not become overwhelmed because lots of neurotic, hysterical people have been rushing to hospitals and checking themselves into intensive care, crying out: "My irritating cough and raised temperature are freaking me out! I've seen too many coronavirus scare videos, so move aside!" The system has become overwhelmed because lots of people have had to be placed in intensive care/on respirators because they are so ill that they will otherwise probably die. Or have now died anyway. For at least a week or two, Italian doctors have been conducting triage to decide, quickly, who gets to be put on a respirator and who is, put brutally, not worth trying to save. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-ethics-speci/special-report-all-is-well-in-italy-triage-and-lies-for-virus-patients-idUSKBN2133KG
I just read a report from eastern France where the specialist doctors say that they are surprised and shocked that when people do recover, if they do, how long this takes. Meaning that a patient often occupies an intensive care bed for longer than planned. And even with the lockdown measures, there continue to be more people being brought to hospital requiring intensive care than places can be found for them. And once that point has been reached, the death rates go up fast. Which is why the measures are necessary.... etc. etc.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby LaoDan on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:07 am

According to the following site, as of when I last checked it, the total number of deaths from COVID-19 is given as 7,330 and the number of those recovered as 80,236; therefore 7,330/80,236 = about 9% lethality for the COVID-19 virus.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby Trick on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:34 am

Giles wrote:
It’s just the “flu”.



yes you are right. its for many to not see that, that the USA is a union of states, something of what EU is too but not yet fully are. the EU president is for now just someone lurking in the shadows aspiring to come out in the light........Yes, "the flu" is also put in the shadows now because of this new corona virus. corona viruses are said to be much more difficult to handle than "regular" viruses because of its 'corona' which i suppose here mean a though shell like structure, difficult nut to crack ?? thats why it get so much attention.
??? That's 'interesting'. Where did you get this information? Can you provide any sources?

hmmm 8-) i read it on another forum couple of weeks ago, but checking things up, what i wrote seem not correct(but i did wtote with question marks).......the corona thing refer to 'crown shaped spikes pointing out at the surface of its sphere'(hope i got that right 8-) ) ......about WW "its just the flu" would actually seem correct..although the corona virus that travel the world this time is of a new strain.
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