Report from Shanghai

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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:42 am

The statistics in the article are faulty because they either need to divide the number of deaths of individuals CONFIRMED, prior to their death, to have had the seasonal flu (i.e., a fraction of the total deaths), and divide that by the number of confirmed cases. What is typically done is to divide the total deaths by the ESTIMATED total infections. The article’s method is invalid. They are dividing the total deaths by a fraction of the total cases. This is inaccurate statistics! The article is bogus!


A better argument, which is why I asked others to read it regardless of my own opinion of it.
You seem to like to be able to make this about other people. Kind of strange for somebody who purports to be a scientist.

As to what we do know. In China and Korea if the numbers are to be believed, it seems that things are improving.
“Any” System can be overwhelmed if the numbers exceed its design specifications. Many people can be asymptomatic meaning they have no symptoms at all but are carriers. A little hard to get the data for people who show no symptoms, why would they be tested.

If they show no symptoms but test positive and then test negative should mean they have developed antibodies to the virus.
Vaccination development is being fast tracked with some of the normal testing not done to get it out sooner.
Last edited by windwalker on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:45 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:49 am

Italy was mentioned, The demographics of the effected of population was not.
Kind of misleading if one looks into the population affected,
and why they may be more at risk than others.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby Trick on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:54 am

grzegorz wrote:
Everything Wind said is not true. Sorry not to pick on anyone but these are nothing more than political talking points to help Trump get re-elected by saying he the leader of our country holds is no responsible for any of this. The fact is Trump is completely responsible and fought the CVC's advice on letting the Americans fly back from Japan from the Princess cruise ship full of infected people who were then put on the same plane with non-infected people and sent back here to infect us all. The US is not the EU and is not the individual states who make these decisions but that what is happening because this president is doing nothing just he did with Puerto Rico. Many Americans are still shock and in disbelief how incompetent a reality TV star is as president. They accepted his lies, they accepted in incompetent behavior with Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands never imagining it could happen to the US itself but it is.

Duckduckgo Trump's lies and you will see that the "Corona virus is just the flu" and most everything else Wind says is the same thing that Trump says.

from looking at medical dictionaries corona viruses can cause common cold, flu and sars like infections
coronavirus One of the many types of virus that can cause the common cold. The virus has attracted much recent attention since it was discovered that a new strain of coronavirus was the cause of SARS.
so trump is in a way not lying .....however this new strain corona might be a lttle wilder than a "common" flu. ....... About USA and EU, my mening is that the EU aspire to have somewhat the same politica climate just as the US, with an dominating president...thats my belief of it
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby Trick on Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:56 am

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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby Trick on Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:03 am

Giles wrote:
windwalker wrote:Lots of misinformation
The news media in In the US is responsible for spreading a lot of in the US is responsible for spreading a lot of propaganda based on an agenda.


Okaaaay, so what aspects of (mainstream) news media reporting on the situation in the US (and in the world) are agenda-based propaganda? i.e. seriously factually incorrect, and also in a calculated manner?

Looking at China and Korea it seems like there is a peek and then starts to subside.
If as much attention was paid to the flu it to would appear to be very scary.


Yes, in China at least the peak has started to subside thanks to the drastic measures and huge extra healthcare resources, some of which I just described in my previous posting. Subsiding for the time being (!). As someone here in Germany wrote today, China has won a battle but it certainly hasn't yet won the war. Once China starts to relax these measures, it's almost certain that the virus will break out again in Wuhan and quite possibly shift to other parts of China. What's absolutely certain is that the virus hasn't "burned itself out" or anything like that. No natural subsiding after a peak. That won't start to happen until 60 to 70% of the population have been infected. And if this happens too quickly, unchecked, then even in China they might reach exhaustion point in the health system as a whole. And this exhaustion point will, as I described, be reached more quickly in many other countries, even if they are 'developed' and 'rich. These countries can't magick lots of extra healthcare facilities and healthcare staff into existence within a week or two.

Maybe you could try a substantive response to my longer posting from 8.26am today.


Thanks for the extra info and reports from your perspective, Grzegorz!

beijing will implement new quarantine measures for people entering the country. people entering the country will be subjected to an two week quarantine hold at locations set up for that specific use......
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:04 am

The Institute's director, Lothar Wieler, just made the following statement with regard to Covid-19 and Germany: "If we don't manage to slow the spread, we can expect to have several million cases of illness in the coming months." That doesn't mean millions of life-threatening cases or millions of deaths, but this would still produce enough sufficiently serious cases requiring urgent treatment to cause the overloading and collapse of the German health system. It's simple mathematics.
That's why the fairly drastic, and highly inconvenient, measures make sense.


Seems to be a well reasoned and a political approach
Also addresses what some have mentioned about overwhelming a medical system and why it may happen.

In the US the normal flu has already killed about 20 K people directly.
A large number and yet there is no panic due in part to the way it’s reported and the familiarity and expectations of the flu.
In time this virus will also be included and what is commonly known as the flu.
It’s a new strain of virus a little more aggressive then others.
Last edited by windwalker on Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby windwalker on Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:20 am

beijing will implement new quarantine measures for people entering the country. people entering the country will be subjected to an two week quarantine hold at locations set up for that specific use......


From what I’ve been told this is also being done in Taiwan with people being asked to self quarantine when arriving.
interesting enough they use cell phones to help track people if they break it.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby everything on Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:23 am

maybe we should start some new threads, but also wondering

- how are small businesses doing in China, S. Korea, elsewhere in Asia as the "curve" has flattened?
- how about the employees of those businesses or other businesses, especially if they lost their jobs?
- any stories from what you're seeing or reading in news over there or from people you talk to?

thanks for any updates. if we need a new thread, will make one or more...
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby grzegorz on Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:48 am

It is not a flu. I think a president should and would know the difference if he surrounds himself with all the best people.

But speaking of which the Spanish Flu killled five million Americans when the population was a third of what it is today.

Being outside the US you are probably unaware that the pres and the right wing media are saying, repeating and parroting Trump's lies (here too) in hopes that by ignoring this whole thing "it will all just disappear" as Trump says.

The right don't believe in government and their latest lie is that this is on the states yet the taxes we pay almost all go to the federal government. It's BS and like this "just" being the flu is one of many lies I have to hear and school people on all the time everyday. The irony is mine and our tax dollars didn't go to fighting the outbreak but they are going to go bailouting the corporations hurt this recession.

As far as I am concerned the only reason Trump is being more honest is because the stock market crash. Trump doesn't understand death. He only understands money.

windwalker wrote:
beijing will implement new quarantine measures for people entering the country. people entering the country will be subjected to an two week quarantine hold at locations set up for that specific use......


From what I’ve been told this is also being done in Taiwan with people being asked to self quarantine when arriving.
interesting enough they use cell phones to help track people if they break it.


They also had their factories switch over to making masks. My Taiwanese who is always masked up said everyone is wearing a mask and anyone with symptoms of a cold, flu or virus is quarantined. Perhaps self-quaranited (he didn't say) but these people wre monitored.

We could have done it here but we didn't. From what I can tell the red states are not taking as seriously as the blue perhaps because the blue states have more movement of people since we have the money but is unfortunate that it is still as issue. Again I blame Trump for his lies.
Last edited by grzegorz on Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:43 am, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby grzegorz on Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:08 am

Here is one of many examples as to why the US will be hit hard.

Coronavirus: Man receives $3,500 medical bill for test after returning to US from China

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 58146.html
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby grzegorz on Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:43 am

Here is an window of what is happening in the US.

And why defining the corona virus accurately matters.



Watch "The Coronavirus Conspiracy, by Rush Limbaugh" on YouTube
https://youtu.be/xp4VuwJFUTc



Watch "Unfit. Period." on YouTube
https://youtu.be/gDxLgpIVXqA
Last edited by grzegorz on Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:55 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby LaoDan on Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:53 am

Just to be clear, as some of this might be somewhat confusing:
- Coronavirus is a type of virus and influenza (shortened to “flu”) is also a virus, but they are NOT both the FLU (only influenza is).
- Coronavirus can cause flu-LIKE symptoms; influenza cases flu symptoms.
- Pneumonia caused by coronavirus is not protected by vaccines against certain other types of infections (viral, bacteriological, and other organisms) that also cause pneumonia (an inflammation of the lungs).
- There is no vaccine against the COVID-19 virus (some have been produced that are in preliminary testing to see if they are safe – these are unlikely to be available for the general public anytime soon).
- The only immunity one can get against the COVID-19 virus is to contract it (hopefully in a mild case) and have your own body produce antibodies to fight the virus. Once recovered from an infection (assuming that the infection does not kill you) then you would have immunity (immunity = having the antibodies against the COVID-19 virus in your immune system).
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Re: Report from Shanghai

Postby xxxxx on Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:28 pm

A bit of clarity is a good point at which to lock this thread, which has been devolving for the past several pages.
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