new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

[bailewen]

So about that thing where we already see something like 60,000 deaths from flu anyways...and how it's not as bad as swing flu?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/c ... house.html

Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.

[Peacedog]

A further elaboration on why the death rate in Italy is as high as it is.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... _jqlNgVnrw

[Steve James]

It's a numbers game. It depends on how many people get infected. I will blame that number on the people who told the nation not to worry; it was just like a cold; one or two cases, and it'll disappear like magic. So, millions of people (advised by senators, congressmen, and media spokespeople) here ignored the warnings and went to restaurants, beaches, parties, etc. Some of them did it to just to show their loyalty to FOX, or their distrust of CNN.

If 50% of USAmericans contract the virus, let's say that 98% will survive, but 2% of 150 million is _____. That's just deaths. There will be many more people hospitalized. That's the disaster.

[Steve James]

Fwiw, I've been compiling the daily CDC reports for the last week for the US.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance* Saturday
Total cases: 1,629
Total deaths: 41
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 47 (46 states and District of Columbia)

Total cases: 3,487 Monday
Total deaths: 68
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 53 (49 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

Total cases: 4,226 Tuesday
Total deaths: 75

Total cases: 7,038 Wednesday
Total deaths: 97

Total cases: 10,442 Thursday
Total deaths: 150

Total cases: 15,219 Friday
Total deaths: 201

That was the progression for last week. The CDC, btw, under reports the numbers, the numbers from Johns Hopkins are higher. However, that doesn't matter. Look at the progression. It's geometrical and predictable. As more testing is done, the number of positives will go up. But, everyone found with the virus now may have had it for two weeks --and passed it along to others. So, there will be a peak because exposures are being limited. It will only be after that peak is reached that it'll be possible to estimate the final result.

Why the virus was transmitted so rapidly in Italy almost definitely had to do with the Italian lifestyle, which is not that different from the Spanish or French lifestyle. Italy has something like 60 million people, iinm. The US has 5 times as many, but we'll probably catch up with Italy by next week --if not tomorrow.

[everything]

I was talking to some old friends in Italy and elsewhere in Europe. They said you can only go somewhere with some kind of paperwork. They also said you have to be careful with the exercise and any risks. I slightly hurt myself using a kettlebell and separately with the focus mitts the other day (through stupidity in both cases, lol) ... good thing those tweaks seem minor. No interest in going to any hospitals at all right now, and it would certainly help them if the rest of us can avoid it. That seems to be the main problem.

[everything]

A further elaboration on why the death rate in Italy is as high as it is.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... _jqlNgVnrw

this is really helpful. the age distribution curve thing also applies in places like Japan ... so having a large elderly population isn't in itself the main danger, I suppose, but combined with the other factors. ...

[Steve James]

If the data used is not not correct or incorrectly
applied would be interested in reading why

Re: data: 3 sources.
Johns Hopkins
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

NPR (actually authored by a 17 year-old)
https://ncov2019.live/

WHO
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... virus-2019

Our CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... in-us.html

Why have I compiled the CDC results for the past week? Well, last week I was interested in where anyone could find the figures for what was really going on in the US. The president had said we had a few cases and that they'd go away, but it didn't seem to be happening. So, I just went to the CDC site to see what was there. I knew that everything that they produced now had to be vetted by the WH before publication. But, it was a Saturday, and I figured I'd check. The site said that reports were updated Mon - Friday. Anyway, I saw that, and so I copied the numbers down and waited for Monday. Surprise. I looked for most of the day on Monday, but they weren't there. Finally, at the end of the day, they were there. I was kind of pissed because it felt as if the CDC was holding something back. So, I checked to find other sites. Johns Hopkins had higher numbers, but why use them. The CDC numbers illustrate the point.

What point? That it was stupid and is stupid to minimize in any way the seriousness of the virus. That that stupidity will cost lives. However, it's not really that hard to reduce the problem. Staying away from people for a couple of weeks will save lives, maybe yours or someone you know, or their care giver.


And, nobody needs to see videos of people on FOX telling their millions of friends that this was all a hoax and fake news.

[windwalker]

It is interesting

Symptoms

Both cause fever, cough, body aches and fatigue; sometimes vomiting and diarrhea.
Can be mild or severe, even fatal in rare cases.
Can result in pneumonia.
Transmission

Both can be spread from person to person through droplets in the air from an infected person coughing, sneezing or talking.
A possible difference: COVID-19 might be spread through the airborne route (see details below under Differences).
Both can be spread by an infected person for several days before their symptoms appear.

[grzegorz]

Looks like they are having some success in the fight. Hopefully they will replicate these results elsewhere.

Grandmother, 95, becomes the oldest woman to recover from coronavirus in Italy

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/22/95-year- ... -12438267/

[windwalker]

Another note about complaining that China did not react fast enough.

For the sake of argument, fine, I'll accept that they totally botched it. I don't believe that, but lets say it's true.

How does that excuse our own US response? Has the United States fallen so far that our national security is reliant on autocratic dictatorships on the other side of the world living up to standards that we ourselves cannot meet? That is humiliating. I mean, it's downright embarrassing. It's a whiny crybaby response.

We had plenty of time to prepare.

What has our country come to that our best response to a global pandemic is to clasp our hands in prayer that some other country will handle it well enough?

Truly embarrassing.

You do understand how it works right?

look at the time line. what the WHO said "its not human transferable" based on reports from China.
Then look at when the the time the travel restriction enacted, which many at the time
felt was the wrong move.

A lot of other countries did not react, but have reacted after the US.

If you or any here feel the response was not right
would be very interested in what you or others would have done differently.

I very much like China....no blame only pointing out that because
of their actions reaction time if at all needed was lost....
It could have been stopped at ground zero.

Be that as it may, once the trend line is understood...we will know if mitigation efforts were enough
or in time.

[windwalker]

I love you man, but you are spreading truly dangerous memes. You are literally increasing the number of people who will die.

You might try reading the article, if you can.

I did. But the problem is you posted a giant picture with a giant red "no" on the mask people should be buying and a giant green "yes" on the one people should not be buying. Then, in a link in an article that you have to dig into and analyse...hidden way back in all of that is the note that well, actually, you should wear the mask labeled "bad".

That's a very dangerous meme. It should not be spread. You basically said, in giant color coded image form: AVOID THIS MASK, USE THIS KIND.

The incorrect message was large and color coded.
The correct message was hidden.

We should just not be posting images like that. It sends the exact opposite message of what is needed.

lets see what was posted:


.

surgical mask does not protect against “airborne” infectious agents so it will not prevent the wearer from being potentially contaminated by a virus such as the coronavirus.

A contagious patient should wear a surgical mask as soon as contagion is suspected.

In Europe, for caregivers, it is necessary to wear a respirator of at least class FFP2 or FFP3 for maximum filtration of particles and aerosols when caring for a patient who is infected or suspected of being so.

In the United States, the N95 respirator filters 95% of airborne particles, and can even filter out bacteria and viruses, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. So for caregivers, it is necessary to wear a respirator of class N, R or P.

http://emag.medicalexpo.com/which-masks ... ronavirus/


note the quoted text.

surgical mask does not protect against “airborne” infectious agents so it will not prevent the wearer from being potentially contaminated by a virus such as the coronavirus

A contagious patient should wear a surgical mask as soon as contagion is suspected.

seems clear

In the United States, the N95 respirator filters 95% of airborne particles, and can even filter out bacteria and viruses, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. So for caregivers, it is necessary to wear a respirator of class N, R or P.

maybe I should have highlighted the important points.

[grzegorz]

Wong again. I realize that you don't want the truth but for me even if we had a Pres I liked some part of me (a big part of me) would still want the truth.

Perhaps a some point you will watch this. If not today perhaps tomorrow or perhaps next week. You can pretend that you didn't and we wouldn't even know because I am sure some part of your patriotic self wants to know what really happened.

Stay safe Wind.

How the Government Botched the Coronavirus Response (LegalEagle’s Real Law Review)
https://youtu.be/r4EVn03aCJg

[windwalker]

lets try again

So, Which Masks Protect Against Coronavirus?





A contagious patient should wear a surgical mask as soon as contagion is suspected.



In Europe, for caregivers, it is necessary to wear a respirator of at least class FFP2 or FFP3 for maximum filtration of particles and aerosols when caring for a patient who is infected or suspected of being so.

In the United States, the N95 respirator filters 95% of airborne particles, and can even filter out bacteria and viruses, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. So for caregivers, it is necessary to wear a respirator of class N, R or P

this is how its presented in the article
for those feeling its confusing maybe they might want to
write the publisher http://emag.medicalexpo.com/which-masks ... ronavirus/

[grzegorz]

The US has reached 400 dead.

[Steve James]

Weeks ago, the chief national security adviser told a meeting of senators that the disease was serious. At the same time, he was telling the public not to worry. Just as people who say it's just like the flu or a cold are still doing. But, Senator Burr (and others) sold stock in hotels, airlines, just before the crash.

What could have been done earlier? Telling people how serious it was after every scientist was saying so. How hard would that have been? Rather than calling it a hoax and nobody had anything to worry about, an alarm could have been sounded rather than saying it was fake news. Of course, you saying so, or FOX saying so, is one thing. That the president says the same bullshit has caused more confusion than comfort.

Funny, there was SARS, MERS, H1N1, swine flu, ebola, and there was no panic in the country. People say, "Well, under Obama, we lost 12,000 people" and no one criticized him. Not true. There was nothing he wasn't criticized for, including the color of his suit. Yet, when it comes to the corona virus, they point out that 22K people died this season. They just don't say it was Trump's fault, though. Frankly, they're right. Then again, Trump didn't get involved in the flu discussion at all. That was left to health pros. Lack of confidence in the man is shown in what happens when he opens his mouth. I'm not criticizing him for what he as president should be doing. Bringing in the National Guard seems reasonable, but not some great accomplishment, just common sense. Right. Nobody panicked before. But, if one day, the guy you trust says "Don't worry," and the next day says "It's a very dangerous thing," the human tendency is to be confused, and that's why people panic. They don't know what to do. So, they hoard toilet paper, like it'll save them.

Scenes like this don't help. It'd be much better if he could stay cool. Do you think this is what the people want to hear? Couldn't this be an example of what could be done differently to make people feel better?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmSruXJBRD8

Btw, US cases have now passed Spain. So, now the US is #3. Only one way to keep that number from going up.