new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

[Peacedog]

An interesting shift of Covid-19 to younger populations.

https://reason.com/2020/06/24/as-covid- ... g-younger/

[windwalker]

An interesting shift of Covid-19 to younger populations.

https://reason.com/2020/06/24/as-covid- ... g-younger/

Touches on some of the findings for younger populations
offers another perspective on lock downs


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZqGSnVt8c8

[Ian C. Kuzushi]

It's an argument.

But, its premise is only valid because we refuse to join the rest of the modern world in providing our citizens with healthcare and financial support through the crisis.

In other words, it's a false dilemma and you are buying it hook, line, and sinker.

[LaoDan]

Graph using actual US CDC data:

[everything]

first off, this is a pretty hard to read graph (garish colors, one of the % is additive, doesn't seem to say % of what total, the last 8.4% number is probably incomplete but you have to read the fine print). kind of sad it's from supposed data experts. guess they're expert in data and not data storytelling. to get a point across, these things are super important.

the actual message seems to be that covid is deadlier than the flu. whomever is supposed to read this chart (and NEEDS to realize this fact) isn't going to be able to be swayed by this chart (due to the bad chart and probably due to being chart illiterate/illiterate/not being a reader in general).

not sure what to do about that. again... as i mentioned on the crazy thread, people just seem stupid (bad reasoning ability) as well as foolish (bad decision making ability). they/we don't listen to experts, authorities, leaders, etc. really hoping everyone proves me wrong.

a data scientist told me the two biggest factors are:
1. population density
2. mobility (how much are people moving around)

on average, we can't control for the first factor (most of us won't move from a high density area), but we can control if we're going lots of places with lots of people around.

[Steve James]

on average, we can't control for the first factor (most of us won't move from a high density area), but we can control if we're going lots of places with lots of people around.

I think whatever people do, the question is still the number of hospitalized --particularly those who need ICU beds. Younger people who take up beds use up resources, even when they recover. People still need cancer treatments, etc., and there can be just as many accidents.

Anyway, treatments are improving. Many countries are working on a vaccine (for next season). The first question will be distribution, and the second will be preparation for another outbreak.

Other than that, nothing has really changed. Maaaybee we're toward the middle. However, it's hot outside. The virus doesn't seem to be dying. So, it may last through the summer, at least, meaning that it's not seasonal.

[Steve James]

The CDC now lists 11 symptoms associated with COVID-19.

These symptoms usually appear two days to two weeks after exposure to the virus, according to the CDC.

Fever or chills
Cough
Shortness of breath or difficulty breathing
Fatigue
Muscle or body aches
Headache
New loss of taste or smell
Sore throat
Congestion or runny nose
Nausea or vomiting
Diarrhea

So, those are the most common symptoms recognized. Of course, a person can have any of them and not test positive for the virus. I think that it'd be a good idea to get tested if you have any of the symptoms, and especially if they get worse. Otoh, keeping out of circulation might be smart, too. Same rules as before. If you wouldn't call 911 or rush to the emergency room for your symptoms before, probably no need to do it now. Stay home, if you can.

[Steve James]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... NcNuR5LqFE
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-spread.html?referringSource=articleShare&fbclid=IwAR34G3ggnhHXiesyjY_d-PnbEKYebG_n1T8yLRT_iGBgEsjjtNcNuR5LqFE

[roger hao]

Those that feel they were previously infected maybe fooling themselves -
I thought the same from a bout with flu or whatever in December - especially
after getting sick in China a short time before that.

My tests as of today -

Virus - negative

Antibody - negative

[LaoDan]

first off, this is a pretty hard to read graph (garish colors, one of the % is additive, doesn't seem to say % of what total, the last 8.4% number is probably incomplete but you have to read the fine print). kind of sad it's from supposed data experts. guess they're expert in data and not data storytelling. to get a point across, these things are super important.

the actual message seems to be that covid is deadlier than the flu. whomever is supposed to read this chart (and NEEDS to realize this fact) isn't going to be able to be swayed by this chart (due to the bad chart and probably due to being chart illiterate/illiterate/not being a reader in general).

The graph shows the % of death certificates that list flu and pneumonia as the cause (or after the first reported death due to COVID-19, also includes those deaths). For the most part I like the chart (although I could do without the colors) because a lot of information can be extrapolated from it. I think that they were trying to show all viral deaths in the USA over the period shown, which includes the atypically bad flu season in the winter of 2018, and the typical seasonal fluctuations. I am not certain about the “pneumonia” part of the data since some are caused by viruses, but others are caused by bacteria or other things (but perhaps the death certificates are not that specific?). 100% would include ALL deaths in the USA for which a cause has been determined: all murders, suicides, accidents, poisonings, asphyxiations, drowning, heart attacks, strokes, natural causes, etc.

Here are some of the numerous possible takeaways:

Deaths due to viral infections are present year round; not JUST in the winters (where it increases, but they do not go to 0% in the summers).

Summers do not eliminate viruses (and the deaths caused by them) in the USA, and therefore we should not expect summer to kill the coronavirus (although it probably will reduce the number of COVID-19 cases).

Even though flu deaths may only occur in 0.1% of cases, those deaths still comprises a significant % of annual (or monthly/weekly/quarterly...) deaths.

It shows that we had a peak in May (perhaps due to NY city) that indicates that deaths after the initial outbreak have gone down [social restrictions in response to the initial outbreak were sufficient to get control of the viral spread].

Once the data for June are added to the chart, we will be able to assess whether the loosening of restrictions results in a second peak.

At its peak, one can see that deaths caused by viral infections accounted for about 27.5% of all the deaths in the USA.

Deaths from suicides (due to depression from job losses, isolation, etc.) are not more significant than deaths due to COVID-19.

It does show that COVID-19 is deadlier than the flu.

Etc.

[Ian C. Kuzushi]

So, I'm just coming out of a three-week long bout of respiratory illness here in Chicago. Coughing, fatigue, shortness of breath, low oxygenation. Went and got tested about two and a half weeks ago at at NWM. They lost my test. A few days later, my wife, who works in testing tents (for some reason, they had me go in, which was horrible and scary) had been exposed several times and got an antibodies test. Her test came back negative. So, we don't really know what to think. Well, I think the hospital she works for is a complete mess, and I wonder about the antibody tests.

Anyway, our overall levels in IL seem to be holding steady. But, we also have other issues like the crazy fireworks. My friend who is a postdoc here was attached by a group of late teens last night who shot him and his dog with "around 15-20 exploding firework projectiles." Right in front of his fancy apt building. He's okay, but has some minor burns and his dog is traumatized. Quarantine, civil unrest, and uncertainty has made the city a crazy place. I'm sure most of you remember at the start of all this a guy picking a fight with me in the Ace hardware store because I was wearing a mask and gloves. I guess that was just the start.

[Ian C. Kuzushi]

Those that feel they were previously infected maybe fooling themselves -
I thought the same from a bout with flu or whatever in December - especially
after getting sick in China a short time before that.

My tests as of today -

Virus - negative

Antibody - negative

Thanks for sharing. I wonder what other bug I could have picked up that would cause my oxygen levels to drop for weeks and last so long?

[windwalker]

Once the data for June are added to the chart, we will be able to assess whether the loosening of restrictions results in a second peak.

No mention of recent riots, are they accounted for in the "loosening of restrictions" ?

[Steve James]

Well, NYC had two nights of looting three weeks ago. Our case numbers are still dropping. Probably because a lot were wearing masks. Most of the places that are experiencing an increase, were in denial, ignored the early warnings, or loosened their restrictions a month ago.

[everything]

the rest of us (Southeast and Southwest states) are learning things the hard way.