new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

[Michael]

Steve, I responded to you on the crazy virus thread.

[everything]

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance* Saturday (2/14/20)
Total cases: 1,629
Total deaths: 41
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 47 (46 states and District of Columbia)

Total cases: 3,487 Monday
Total deaths: 68
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 53 (49 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

Total cases: 4,226 Tuesday
Total deaths: 75

Total cases: 7,038 Wednesday
Total deaths: 97

Total cases: 10,442 Thursday
Total deaths: 150

Total cases: 15,219 Friday
Total deaths: 201

Total cases: 33,404 Monday (2/23/20)
Total deaths: 400

Total cases: 44,183 Tuesday
Total deaths: 544
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

Total cases: *55,234 Wednesday *from Johns Hopkins because the CDC site updates very late
Total deaths: *802

Total Cases: *69,197 Thursday *
Total deaths: *1046

Total cases: *86,012 Friday *
Total deaths: *1,300

Good news and bad in the last figures. The percent of deaths can be found by dividing 1,300 by 86,012 and then multiplying by 100. So, the percentage is 1.5%. That's the same as it was for Thursday, and hasn't gone up.

The bad news will depend on the number of new confirmed cases because that will ultimately determine to final figures. I.e., it may be 1.5% of (X) and X is not 1/3 the population. Even if the percentage is .1% (i.e., 99.9% not 98.5%) simply don't die, the numbers are large.

Well, let's say that it's gonna be either 1.5% (which it is) or .1%, which would be great. The only question now is how we can limit the spread as much as possible.

Steve, hoping you will keep updating us with your table. Looks like today (Friday March 27), USA confirmed cases are already above 93k. May be on track to double from Wednesday by the end of today... :-(

[Steve James]

I will. Yep, the increase is geometric for cases and for support staff. Doctors and nurses will be exhausted soon.

Anyway, afa the mortality rate, those who are dying today were hospitalized a week to 21 days earlier. Hopefully, the mortality rate will level off. Unfortunately, more deaths also means more available ventilators. That's why the triage is going to be frightening.

Btw, in NYC, young (<50 year old) doctors, nurses, and police officers have died. How do I know? It's big news here.

Hey, Boris Johnson and Prince Charles tested positive. That's a bit off topic, sorry. It was just funny because Johnson had been bragging that he went to hospitals and shook hands with coronavirus patients. No joke.

Btw, you're right. By 2:00, the total number of cases was 94,238 with 1,438 deaths. More bad news here, though. In New Jersey, 50+ nursing homes have been found to have at least on covid case. They were testing those facilities for obvious reasons. However, yesterday, they had to close a nursing home and move the residents on buses somewhere else. That must be a nightmare for them.

[Steve James]

[Steve James]

NYC ... yesterday.

[windwalker]

studies documenting the effects on young people

evidence is emerging that while few children suffer severely from COVID-19, they do get infected.

A recent study even found evidence of viral excretion in children from rectal swabs. “At the moment it doesn’t seem to be causing much in the way of serious disease in young people, particularly children,” says virologist Robin Shattock of Imperial College London. However, he adds, “it is quite likely that children are an important source of the virus.”

“There is good evidence that children get infected and have a fairly high titre of virus but just don’t have serious disease,” agrees Ralph Baric, a coronavirus researcher at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He saw a similar phenomenon in his mouse studies with the original SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV).

Although SARS-CoV can replicate fairly well, “younger animals are really resistant to infection in terms of the disease,” he says. When Baric tested older animals, he says, the severity of SARS illnesses rose. In one experiment, one-fifth of mice infected with SARS aged 3–4 weeks died, whereas all of the mice 7–8 weeks old died.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opin ... d-19-67273

[everything]

hope that bodes well for people in the future

[Steve James]

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance* Saturday (2/14/20)
Total cases: 1,629
Total deaths: 41
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 47 (46 states and District of Columbia)

Total cases: 3,487 Monday
Total deaths: 68
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 53 (49 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

Total cases: 4,226 Tuesday
Total deaths: 75

Total cases: 7,038 Wednesday
Total deaths: 97

Total cases: 10,442 Thursday
Total deaths: 150

Total cases: 15,219 Friday
Total deaths: 201

Total cases: 33,404 Monday (2/23/20)
Total deaths: 400

Total cases: 44,183 Tuesday
Total deaths: 544
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

Total cases: *55,234 Wednesday *from Johns Hopkins because the CDC site updates very late
Total deaths: *802

Total Cases: *69,197 Thursday *
Total deaths: *1046

Total cases: *86,012 Friday
Total deaths: *1,300

Total cases: *104,837 Saturday 3/28/20
Total deaths: *1,711

If you do the math, the mortality percentage has gone up to 1.6%. That's unexpected. As the total # or cases goes up, one would hope the percentage of deaths would go down. But, that's hopes and wishes, not what's happening. Anyway, it might be a statistical anomaly and the percentages will go down.

It's nice to say that the percentage might end up being 0.1%, but everyone understands even that small percentage of millions is large.

The numbers are big enough now to make people pay attention. There are 100K cases today. Ff the pattern continues, there'll be 200K by Monday.

[Steve James]

Just news from the front line (today). Fyi.

NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) – Nurses at Jacobi Medical Center held a press conference Saturday morning to protest about lack of enough medical supplies and sudden revisions to safety guidelines about reusing protective gear in treating COVID-19 coronavirus patients.

They say the hospital is putting their lives at risk by asking them to reuse their personal protective equipment, reports CBS2’s Kiran Dhillon.

Nurses on the front lines of the coronavirus crisis at NYC Health + Hospitals/Jacobi Medical Center in the Bronx are fed up.

They say after the CDC changed its guidelines and they were told by management to reuse their protective gear, including N95 masks for one use.

It’s just one of many stories coming to light from healthcare workers across the Tri-State Area.

“Prior to coronavirus, we were they were one-time use, you use them for a patient and they went in the garbage,” said one nurse. “Now all of a sudden the CDC is saying that it’s fine for us to reuse them and these choices are being made not based on science, they’re being made based on need.”

[Michael]

2 PM EDT March 28, 2020

Will this be necessary in NYC? I think it has a population density very similar to Wuhan.

I don't think an American quarantine would be like a Chinese one, but the idea is to reduce the travel of people who don't know they're infected.

[Steve James]

I was going to write about that. It would be a disaster for the disease and the economy. What does quarantine mean? No one goes in or out? Ridiculous. First off, anyone who is reluctant now to self quarantine will surely flee the city. I know that for a fact because I know several people who left the city when a lockdown was announced. The same happened in Italy when the pm announced that Lombardy would be locked down. People found out --in their case, through a leak-- and what do you know, they fled to southern Italy and elsewhere.

No one who questions social distancing will abide by a quarantine. Right. This ain't China. If reducing the spread of the virus isn't a product of public cooperation --regardless of what T says-- it simply won't work. It'd take martial law or a police state to enforce. Problem: NYC has 500 officers out with covid and another 1500 on sick leave. The National Guard is already here, but they're helping with the health aspect. Police will break up large groups of people when they're seen (in cctv cameras at parks).

Thirdly, and most importantly, that decision would be dumb because the virus is already in every single state. Cutting off NYC will not slow the spread of the virus across the country as cutting off Denver, San Francisco, Dallas, or New Orleans. Only those who argue that it's not that bad where they are -or there's some cultural, social or other reason why it's so prevalent somewhere else who'd even consider it.

See how "we're all in this together" until it gets too bad and then you're on your own. I know. He'd make sure supplies got through the Port of NY and New Jersey. I mean. How would Walmart (America's largest employer) get its stuff jit to sell to ... the American consumer. Oh yeah, that check coming in a few weeks. NYers laugh at that. $1200 bucks is less than the average rent for a one bedroom apartment. Then again, Lindsay Graham was complaining because the stimulus for unemployment would stimulate laziness.

Anyway, I've been keeping track of the Texas numbers. So far:

Texas
Confirmed 1,659 3/26
Deaths 18 (1%)

Confirmed 2,052 3/27
Deaths 27 (1.3%)

The national rate as of this moment is 1.6%.

Btw, the smart thing would be for the places with the fewest reported cases do the MOST they can do right now. But, if they have just one case, they inevitably will have more. That's even if the person they test had come from Florida or Texas.

[grzegorz]

Interesting how the Pres says he can't do anything it has to he handled at the state and local level then days later he does what he should have done weeks ago and actually works instead of outsourcing his job.

By the way before the Trumpsters attack there is nothing wrong with criticizing what a Pres says. I would he speaking out if this were a Bernie Sanders Presidency too.

In fact in Mexico they have what some consider their "Bernie" and like Trump he is doing nothing.

Watch "As the Coronavirus Approaches, Mexico Looks the Other Way | The Dispatch" on YouTube
https://youtu.be/o3z-MH-xxdI



Thanks for sharing these Steve. Now that's the weekend I have been going through the NY Times videos.

NYC ... yesterday.

It's funny I deliever to a lot of doctors and lawyers and they take this stuff as seriously as a heart attack but where I work which has mostly people without any college education people don't take it seriously and crack jokes and then add in the Pres downplaying it and they think it's just another day. Serves as a good reminder to me why education and knowledge are so important because otherwise people just get all their information from facebook and who know they're hearing.

Like Puerto Rico, like Jamal Kashoogi, like families being separated, it's obvious that Trump doesn't care that up to a million senior citizens will die and mortgages will crash. Besides when they break country the rich benefit.

Lost track in the news but didn't he get half a trillion to spend as likes?

[Steve James]

Hey, I'm down for a digital national registration card that is used for travel, purchases, medical records, voting etc. It'd be great to have a system where someone who is tested for a disease or who has taken the vaccine can show so on a phone or device. Like I said though, many Americans would consider that an intrusion by the gubmint.

[Steve James]

Hey Greg, Thanks for continuing to deliver. Personally, I refuse to buy anything online because I know some person has to bring it to me. It's as easy to be a keyboard warrior when it comes to a virus as it is when it comes to martial arts. Props to anyone who's concerned about the virus but still decides to keep on working.

Wow, that Mexico video is sad. She knows she might have been exposed but she's socializing. The US is still trying to get travelers back from overseas. Yikes.

[grzegorz]

Speaking of hot spots it seems that Mardi Gras has spread it all over the South.

I can't imagine how hard For will be hit since New Yorkers are escaping NY and going there. But I don't New Yorkers anymore than the Chinese. Viruses don't care they will infect everyone but with the elderly population in Florida...

At least at a retirement center I deliver too they no longer let visitors or people in. I just leave the stuff outside.