new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

[everything]

density + taking it seriously early enough?

how is your social distancing and mask wearing there?

[Steve James]

Interesting, why it is so big difference. Poland with 40 millions population can be compared to NY/ long Island area. Density is different, but...
Maybe shitty food destroying US citizens immunity system?

So far, the virus has hit Italy, France, and Spain, why is it so big different there? Any thoughts? Though, obviously, anyone who is not healthy "and" catches the disease will be more susceptible.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cdGeaPVTt8

[Steve James]

Hey wiesiek, Germany
95,614 confirmed cases
1,427 deaths

And they think they have a problem. It'd right next to Poland, no? What's the difference? Well, the number of confirmed cases depends on the number of tests. Is testing being done?

[windwalker]

Regarding reporting of deaths in the US.....

Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?

COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is
assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based
on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc.

If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part
II. (See attached Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths)

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/coro ... deaths.pdf

[Steve James]

COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is
assumed to have caused or contributed to death.

Was there a point you wanted to make? Isn't the above obvious? If a person had the virus, but was shot in the head, that wouldn''t be reported as a death. In NYC, I'm sure they aren't testing everyone who dies in order to add to the statistics. People don't die from having the virus, if it hasn't been said 10 times before. They die from the complications, like pneumonia and ards. If someone has the virus and suffocates to death, it should be noted on the death certificate.

Anyway, the person in cardiac arrest who can't be resuscitated in the home or ambulance will be declared dead because there is simply no room in the hospital. The coronavirus will not be listed as a cause of death.

[Steve James]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tHE5Y_Yv9g

[wiesiek]

You know, Steve
this Germany example is really good,
it shows, that virus is not so deadly - ~1,5%...

in Poland hype is growin` - more peoples waring the mask, than couple days ago, government makin` more stupid decisions - like closing forests for the public
In my opinion:
older and sick peoples should take maximum prevention.
Rest of us - go back to work dammed!
As it is (looks like)right now - something is cooking under the skin....
and not good, definitely.

I`m not word conspiracy theory groupies, btw.

POSSIBILITY is, that statistic in Poland are lowering or wrongly counted, but it can happen everywhere.

[wiesiek]

AND
8000 deaths in US, where population is 330 mil. - is just 0,0024% !!!
`cmon
I call it hysteria , but have live with it.

[Giles]

I can understand that there are worries about how the Polish government might use the coronavirus emergency as an excuse to make long term (!) reductions in democratic and civil liberties. As opposed to short term measures with a clear goal of managing the pandemic. Things don't seem as bad as in Hungary, democracy-wise, but definitely not too good either.

On the other hand, moving to another aspect of the whole situation, I find it quite startling that the basic concept of exponential growth is still seemingly not understood. Especially what this exponential growth means for infection rates in an epidemic where each infected person infects more than one other person. Even if each infected person 'only' infects two other people on average, then we already get the famous "grains of rice on the chessboard" story. There has been so much information/explanation in the media, on the internet, even on RSF, about this aspect of exponential growth in recent weeks that I would have thought the basic logic behind the measures would now be understood.

[windwalker]

AND
8000 deaths in US, where population is 330 mil. - is just 0,0024% !!!
`cmon
I call it hysteria , but have live with it.

In an earlier post, posted the CDC changed the rules for counting virus deaths allowing for
More deaths to be attributed to the virus based on assumptions with out actually confirmation by testing, also
Allowing the virus to be listed as the cause despite other factors it does ask them to be listed
if possible.

[windwalker]

“The 1,000-Bed Comfort Was Supposed to Aid New York. It Has 20 Patients.

“It’s a joke,” said a top hospital executive, whose facilities are packed with coronavirus patients. “
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/nyre ... mfort.html

NYC is not thinking it through if they expect the ship to take on virus patients.
Hopefully never happens and not forced by politicians to happen

they knew the ships were going there they should have had a system set up already

[Steve James]

Fwiw. Apologies, it should be 3/14 not 2/14

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance* Saturday (3/14/20)
Total cases: 1,629
Total deaths: 41

Sorry about that. But, to the issue of exponential growth; it's simple to show below.

Total cases: *189,633 Wednesday 4/1
Total deaths: *4,081

Total cases: *216,722 Thursday 4/2
Total deaths: *5,137

Total cases: *257,773 Friday 4/3
Total deaths: *6,586

Total cases: *278,568 Saturday 4/4
Total deaths: *7,163

Total cases: *312,249 Sunday 4/5
Total deaths: *8,503

The number of deaths doubled in five days. If that pattern of "doubles every five days" continues, it's not hard to calculate what that number would be. So, on 4/10, there may be around 16K deaths. On the fifteenth, 32K, etc.

Of course, that assumes doubling every five days. In every "hotspot," the doubling rate has been as low as every 2 days. And, then there's just simple arithmetic. If 1K people die every day, that's 7K a week. So, it all depends on how long it lasts.

Anyway, it'd be great if people who comment on this thread give the update on the situation where they actually live right now.

[Steve James]

this Germany example is really good,
it shows, that virus is not so deadly - ~1,5%...

LOL. Germany has 83 million people. 1.5% of 83 million is 1 million two hundred forty five thousand.

AND
8000 deaths in US, where population is 330 mil. - is just 0,0024% !!!

SMH

Ok, seriously. The distribution of deaths or the disease is not universal or equally distributed among the states or cities. More importantly, it is not distributed equally in terms of times of initial exposures. The only question is how the population deals with the virus "when" it gets to where they are. The pattern is always the same if nothing is done. There will be only a few serious cases, but they will represent only a small percentage of the people carrying the virus. It's only a small percentage, but they will all need hospitalization at the same time. That's the problem.

Anyway, wiesiek, what does your chemistry professor say? Are people using h2o2? You say it's hype, but what exactly are they saying.

[windwalker]

The first reported cases of the virus in Italy were two Chinese tourists–a husband and wife–who arrived in Milan from Wuhan and fell sick in Rome. The third case was an Italian citizen repatriated from Wuhan. These early cases were quickly isolated in Rome in January. But experts now believe that the virus was spreading for weeks throughout the Lombardy region by the time the 38-year-old super spreader identified as Italy’s “Patient One” contracted the disease in February. Early contact tracing suggests that this individual may have gotten the virus from another European who had recently been to China.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/0 ... -question/

The contact tracing that allows this information in many countries is probably something that would not be done in the US very easily although the US has the technology to do so.
In many instances private companies already monitor location of people with existing technology.

There is some suggestions that this technology, for example like in Taiwan be used as a way of monitoring contact and those infected with a virus. In Taiwan the penalties are quite severe for those who do not follow the quarantine.

The same can be said with Korea, both held up as examples of effective ways that some countries took to mitigate the spread of the virus .

Often at times ignoring that the US is based on a federalist system of governance.
What other countries do with the centralized government is not so easy here.

[wiesiek]

Steve,
What I trying to communicate is :
- 1,5% deaths from cov., is not much higher that from another types of hard flu.
- viruses are our companions from the very begging
- epidemic is fired by media and disinformation
BUT
virus is real and everybody should take special care, hoverer w/o the panic and stupid regulations.

My chemistry professor has lot to say about it, `cause she is working on very advanced level, where chemistry and quantum science connect.
Sorry, but explanation by using my poor english will take too long for today. I`m artist not a scientist, so lot of terms etc, are terra incognita for me, then translation will be terrible. Anyway I will try to write something in the future.
Shortly - our contemporary science suffers from "mechanical" approach, right now we are able to explain 40% of transmissions energy of the universe. Rest 60% is unknown and we aren`t able to bite it.
Our work to close everything in one equation has failed, but in the same time partially is workin`...

Today I sow independent from official TV report from England , and it looks quite different.
I will post the link tomorrow, but it is in Polish, however clips speaking for itself.

cheers
and
be save, use grey matter.