new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby windwalker on Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:15 pm

Funny, there was SARS, MERS, H1N1, swine flu, ebola, and there was no panic in the country


what can one say....
believe what you will


A: In the decision-making, the fundamental strategic flaw was combining all aspects of response into a single “go or no-go” decision – the decision to proceed with characterizing the virus into a vaccine, to produce the vaccine, to test it and to deliver it to every man, woman and child in the USA – that was all decided and announced in March ’76 in one fell swoop.


on the other hand I was there, we were the ones vaccinating our fellow soldiers

It knocked out at least half or battalion, many had bad reactions....I belive at least 30 people directly died from the vaccination

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) lost credibility over the ’76 swine flu affair, not only due to about 30 deaths from adverse vaccine reactions?
https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/87/6/09-040609/en/


Had H1N1 influenza been transmitted at that time, the small apparent risk of GBS from immunization would have been eclipsed by the obvious immediate benefit of vaccine-induced protection against swine flu. However, in December 1976, with >40 million persons immunized and no evidence of H1N1 transmission, federal health officials decided that the possibility of an association of GBS with the vaccine, however small, necessitated stopping immunization, at least until the issue could be explored. A moratorium on the use of the influenza vaccines was announced on December 16; it effectively ended NIIP of 1976


https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-1007_article


The US is reacting, and acting much better then back in the day....
Lets see were the tend lines fall,,,There is talk of some live testing now of different
vaccinations based on proven drugs used for other things..like malaria .
Last edited by windwalker on Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby windwalker on Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:26 pm

lots of mind readers on the thread.

Ask for what would some of the posters would have done differently
and get vedio, clips, or some political shit.....doesn't make much sense


Kinda of surprised at the steps taken so far.

Just looking at the numbers.....
this will peak and even out as it has
in other places...

by 3/27/20. they should have some good data
as to the trend lines.....

if they've managed to work through
the back log of testing done so far..
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby everything on Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:44 pm

Unfortunately the US is now the fastest to double cases (every 2.1 days). Italy and Iran are improving their rate now.

China, South Korea, Japan, other Asian countries have flattened the curve for now.

https://blog.datawrapper.de/coronaviruscharts/ - 2nd chart has the rate of doubling.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby everything on Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:32 pm

If Italy is now flattening, by definition it hit its peak.

Otherwise a new peak is coming (the top of the curve).

I think here in the USA, we anxiously await to learn how NYC handles it.

If NY flattens the curve faster, we can learn.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby everything on Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:35 pm

On the numbers, I have been thinking of making my own charts.

There are tons of basic problems with these sites:

- too many charts per page
- slow performance
- no showing totals
- no showing anything per capita
- unreadable symbol maps

I don’t think I’ll have time.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:26 pm

If Italy is now flattening, by definition it hit its peak.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but the graph indicates that the rate of increase (in Italy) has slowed in the last 5 days. I.e., as of today, the number of patients doubles every 5.5 days aopt 4.7 days. That's a great sign, but it's not the peak number of patients. I just thought that flattening the curve related to the number of new patients and the capacity to treat them. For ex., right now, Italy has about 60 million people, and approximately 60 thousand of them are known to have the virus. That's one out of every thousand Italians. They're struggling now. They can't afford any doubling.

Btw, NY was not the first hot spot. Washington was. We have the most cases, though. However, we probably started taking small precautions sooner. Our governor used the National Guard a few weeks back. ANyway, I hope you're right about NY. However, I remember vividly hearing Italian air passengers being surprised that they could enter so easily. At the same time, there were Italians who were complaining that in some countries they weren't being allowed in just because they were Italian, even if they hadn't come from Italy.

The US rate of confirmed cases doubles every 2 days. Hopefully that won't continue or increase for two weeks. That's why staying away from others is so important.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:35 pm

Here ya go. Here are the CDC figures for the US as of Friday. As it says, the figures should be updated at noon today.

Updated March 20, 2020

This page will be updated regularly at noon Mondays through Fridays. Numbers close out at 4 p.m. the day before reporting.

CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus. The outbreak first started in Wuhan, China, but cases have been identified in a growing number of other locations internationally, including the United States. In addition to CDC, many public health laboratories are now testing for the virus that causes COVID-19.

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance*
Total cases: 15,219
Total deaths: 201
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)
* Data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan. State and local public health departments are now testing and publicly reporting their cases. In the event of a discrepancy between CDC cases and cases reported by state and local public health officials, data reported by states should be considered the most up to date.


Just check these or some other source tomorrow at one.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby bailewen on Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:18 am

Steve James wrote:I'm not quite as pessimistic as bailewen because there's a concerted effort here in nyc to limit the spread. Now, we're waiting to see whether we reach our peak sooner, and run out of icu units; or, whether the delay will allow more resources to be gathered. Hopefully, it'll be the latter. Flattening the curve works if there are enough beds and personnel.


fwiw, I am more pessimistic about the economy than the spread. Even in the most terrifying worst case scenarios, a million dead or something, that's most likely not going to be anyone I know. I have family in both New York and California (mostly California), but in N.Y. it's a young, low risk nephew, and in L.A. we have no seniors left in the family. I am very confident my sis and my brother in law will be fine, mostly because they are taking all the appropriate precautions.

The economic disaster, in contrast, will hit everyone and will probably take longer to stop wreaking havoc.

On another note, I have been quite scrupulous to avoid making this "about trump". I have been very careful to not attack his character or his style on this, but as the president who is presiding over this crises, he is the single most influential person in the entire country regarding how we react. He has, and this is just fact, not my opinion, repeatedly claimed that CNN, MSNBC, New York times are "fake news" and cannot be trusted, and has flatly contradicted his own experts time and again. So while we are not an autocracy and do not have the power to enforce massive quarantines and social distancing etc but force, presidents have enormous power to persuade. He used his power to persuade a very large portion of the population that there was nothing to worry about.

I also believe most of the damage that Trump can do, the deaths that he will be responsible, is done already. When your own family member gets sick and dies, the power of personality has little influence. The economy has already tanked and all of the stock market gains from his entire presidency have been erased, and worse, he basically has not metaphorical bullets left in his economic gun. His tax break increased the deficit over a trillion dollars, so we were more leveraged than the country has ever been in my lifetime. We never paid back the debt from the last quantitative easing, and he successfully pressured the fed to lower interest rates so many times in the past, that "bullet" is gone too. We are already at zero. So when we hit massive unemployment, there is no money left in the coffers. The announcement of a trillion dollar relief package last week only resulted in a very brief bump in the market before continued slide.

This most recent drop in the prime rate to basically zero was a waste of his final bullet. He shot his wad too soon. The current crash has nothing to do with interest rates. It's because everything is closed. No planes flying, no tourism, no movies, no bars and restaurants, etc. It's pointless to try and stimulate the market like that before the virus is under control and people are starting to get back to work. At that time, some cheap money might be useful. But now we are at zero already. All our bullets have been shot and a giant zombie horde is still charging our little village.

It's gonna get really weird...I mean even weirder.

A working vaccine could show up tomorrow and the US economy is still fucked.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby windwalker on Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:58 am

I also believe most of the damage that Trump can do, the deaths that he will be responsible,


But it’s not about Trump.

Got it.

You really don’t seem to understand what was going on in the early days nor how he reacted to it.
True in the confusion of the first reports by the WHO, It was down played considering everything else prior to that that was happening to him and administration an expected reaction.

Once the empirical evidence was understood the administration reacted and is continuing to react as well as to be expected.

There are big differences between the federal government of this country and other countries which is why the reactions are different.

Short of a war there are many powers that are limited for use by the president. Which is why he incrementally used them as the situation changed.



The economy and market observations are correct. I don’t think it will be as bad as the pictures you’ve painted. I do have family members who were also affected by the actions taken in businesses. Yep not good

My point maybe been misunderstood is that other things like the flu kill many people in a short amount of time but are not as publicized in or reacted to the same way.

Personally I don’t think the mortality rate will be much higher than the flu, maybe even a little lower than past pandemics, that did not promote the same type of reactions as what we were seeing now. Could be wrong, it’s too early to tell.

One of the main points of why I wonder what’s going on.

It’s not just the US economy that’s affected it’s the worlds economy.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Michael on Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:55 pm

We will never see the actual epidemiological numbers that the CCP has*, but those stats must have shown clearly a trend that made them confident to allow Guangzhou and other cities to return nearly to normal on March 2 (Wuhan is not really back to normal, hospitals are still overwhelmed, but other things are returning to norm), schools are closed for a couple of more weeks in Guangzhou (unlike the entire semester in the USA), and they have now removed the requirement for masks and other precautions in Guangzhou, despite that it had the second highest official death count for the virus; I believe is the closest Tier-1 city to Wuhan.

This theory means the virus already spread widely through the population centers of China and risk of uncontrollable outbreak re-occurring is basically nil because sufficient exposure and natural immunity has already happened, otherwise the CCP would not gamble on re-opening, IMO.

*For reference, the CCP kept local statistics of deaths during The Great Leap Forward famine of 1959-61, but never published them. However, Prof. Dikkotier of Hong Kong got access in 2005 to some of the archives in various places around the mainland and compiled them, then estimated the entire death toll during that one crisis (Mao created several) to be into the forty millions of deaths for just three years, which he published in 2012. I speculate that the CCP has accurate enough numbers on the corona virus and has acted based on reliable epidemiological information and statistics.
Last edited by Michael on Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby everything on Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:56 pm

This is great news. Do you live in Guangzhou?

How "normal" does life seem to be now?

How do you know you don't need to "social distance" to avoid a "second wave"?

Edit: cross posted.

Really hope life is truly normal again there

And that it bodes well for everywhere else.
Last edited by everything on Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Michael on Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:27 pm

This is great news. Do you live in Guangzhou?

How "normal" does life seem to be now?

No, I've been back in the USA for quite some time, but I keep in touch with friends there and most things are back to normal. The biggest thing I know of that is not is that schools are closed, but some colleges are expected to open next week, and that was announced a couple of weeks ago from what friends told me.

There is a very large trade fair twice a year in Guangzhou and although it was scheduled for April as usual, it has been canceled. Although things are getting back to normal in China, like bailewen said new cases [are reportedly] coming from international travelers, including mainland Chinese citizens returning home. There is a 14 day mandatory quarantine for anyone flying into Beijing, but not in some other cities, such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou. It would not be prudent to have a huge conference of a few hundred thousand international business people coming into China right now.

Quick anecdote of an American I know in Shenzhen. Last week he returned to China, was taken from the airport to a decent hotel for overnight corona testing, results came back early the next morning as negative, so he was allowed to go home on a mandatory, 14 day self-quarantine in his apartment. They installed a camera in the hallway outside his door just for him, he posted a pic of it being installed, and I assume they would have done the same for a Chinese citizen. He was not subject to any fees for the test or the camera (at least not yet, and I doubt will be), so it seems like very decent treatment.

People flying into Beijing are having a rougher time, including Chinese citizens, which is typical variation in enforcement across China. Big country, lots of people, lol.

I believe this news about Guangzhou bodes well for everywhere else in China, which is of course very good, and I think it also supports the notion that the virus does taper off, even in the worst-affected areas, and that its statistical trend is predictable when you have the data. The CCP would not be gambling by re-opening too soon, IMO.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Michael on Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:51 pm

China re-opening Hubei province to travel, although Wuhan is still under some travel restrictions; I did see one vid of Wuhan checkpoints being removed. I think this reinforces the idea that China has enough data to be confident of this decision. There's no vaccine and hundreds of millions of people in densely populated areas that did not already have severe outbreaks, so how can they expect not to have future infections beyond the capacity of medical resources? Maybe because the virus has run its course by already going through the cities.

In America, in December, I knew three people personally who had unusual flu and other symptoms, such as diarrhea, and I have heard of many others. For example, a man I know in his late 70's in good health could not eat anything solid in the first week of January, but that passed and now he's fine. He did not visit the doctor, and people close to him, such as me and his wife or their friends did not get sick.

I think the likelihood of the virus having been through the major population centers of the USA is high. Now I hope resources can be moved to the areas with severe outbreaks in order to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Giles on Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:31 am

Michael wrote:I believe this news about Guangzhou bodes well for everywhere else in China, which is of course very good, and I think it also supports the notion that the virus does taper off, even in the worst-affected areas, and that its statistical trend is predictable when you have the data. The CCP would not be gambling by re-opening too soon, IMO.


I really hope this development proves solid and that this isn't a gamble. It would have good implications for all of us. The proof of the pudding will come, presumably, in a month or two when it can be seen, irrespective of theories and forecasts, whether the virus does actually bounce back after having spread 'underground' again. If this does happen, then I hope the Chinese authorities will be open about it this time.
Let's hope for the best!
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:10 am

There are a lot of sites where you can find the answers you seek. Do you want to look by country?
Here's one with a simple graph https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

Here's an even simpler one with fewer pictures.
https://ncov2019.live/

Surprise! NKorea has had 0 cases.
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