new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Trick on Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:13 am

havent had time to go through the latest for pages, maybe this has been shown.....it just came to my knowledge.....weird synchronicity ?? www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:13 am

Yeah, it's our system. Nevertheless, here; does anyone see a "trend?"

COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance* Saturday (2/14/20)
Total cases: 1,629
Total deaths: 41
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 47 (46 states and District of Columbia)

Total cases: 3,487 Monday
Total deaths: 68
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 53 (49 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

Total cases: 4,226 Tuesday
Total deaths: 75

Total cases: 7,038 Wednesday (3/18)
Total deaths: 97


Total cases: 10,442 Thursday
Total deaths: 150

Total cases: 15,219 Friday
Total deaths: 201

Total cases: 33,404 Monday (2/23/20)
Total deaths: 400

Total cases: 44,183 Tuesday
Total deaths: 544
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

Total cases: *55,234 Wednesday (3/25) *from Johns Hopkins because the CDC site updates very late
Total deaths: *802


Anyway, re chloroquine and Tamiflu, etc., a pharmacist was on the news saying that he had received a prescription from a doctor for 120 tablets, for a family of four: i.e., 120 tabs for each family member. The same with Tamiflu. The problem is that even if the drug works really well, the pharmacy won't have it for those who need it. That's why spreading news that the drug "might" work actually reduces the supply. Why? Because there are people who use those drugs to treat their own illnesses. If the pharmacy is out because people want to hoard it like toilet paper, people with rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, and other diseases won't get what they usually need. Sure, those drugs might not harm the people who take them. Meh, if the point can't be seen, whatever.

There are lots of drugs that are being tested. If more people continue dying, there'll only be more panic, and more attempts to hoard anything that might be helpful. People will see the numbers rise --no matter what anyone said about having a few cases and the disease disappearing. That prediction would be ridiculously wrong if the whole thing stopped today.

People have been asked to isolate themselves for a couple of weeks. At this point, it might not work because of our own past actions, and the fact that too many continue them. If it doesn't work, everything will only get worse because harsher methods will have to be taken.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:55 pm

New Orleans is predicted to be the next epicenter. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-healt ... KKBN21C339

The plight of New Orleans - with the world’s highest growth rate in coronavirus cases - also raises fears that the city may become a powerful catalyst in spreading the virus across the south of the country. Authorities have warned the number of cases in New Orleans could overwhelm its hospitals by April 4.

New Orleans is the biggest city in Louisiana, the state with the third-highest case load of coronavirus in the United States on a per capita basis after the major epicentres of New York and Washington.

The growth rate in Louisiana tops all others, according to a University of Louisiana at Lafayette analysis of global data, with the number of cases rising by 30% in the 24 hours before noon on Wednesday. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a major federal disaster declaration for the state, freeing federal funds and resources.

Some 70% of Louisiana’s 1,795 confirmed cases to date are in the New Orleans metro area.

The culprit for the rapid spread of coronavirus in the Big Easy? Some blame Carnival.

“Mardi Gras was the perfect storm, it provided the perfect conditions for the spread of this virus,” said Dr. Rebekah Gee, who until January was the Health Secretary for Louisiana and now heads up Louisiana State University’s health care services division.


Otoh, some really good news is that the doubling rate has gone from 2 days to 4 in NYC. On one hand, it means that we may "flatten the curve" enough to allow hospital and health facilities can keep up. If it does, this can serve as a model. This doesn't mean that it's over. Maybe it's the end of the beginning. For ex., the morgues are running out of space, so a temporary one is being set up. Hopefully, it won't be needed.
Last edited by Steve James on Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:00 am

The trend. Hopefully, it will level off soon and not increase this way for weeks. Yet, there are still idiots deliberately contaminating groceries and products in stores. It will take cooperation for it to go away.


COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance* Saturday (2/14/20)
Total cases: 1,629
Total deaths: 41
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 47 (46 states and District of Columbia)

Total cases: 3,487 Monday
Total deaths: 68
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 53 (49 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

Total cases: 4,226 Tuesday
Total deaths: 75

Total cases: 7,038 Wednesday
Total deaths: 97

Total cases: 10,442 Thursday
Total deaths: 150

Total cases: 15,219 Friday
Total deaths: 201

Total cases: 33,404 Monday (2/23/20)
Total deaths: 400

Total cases: 44,183 Tuesday
Total deaths: 544
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

Total cases: *55,234 Wednesday *from Johns Hopkins because the CDC site updates very late
Total deaths: *802

Total Cases: *69,197 Thursday * 3/26/2020
Total deaths: *1046
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby windwalker on Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:12 am

Side note to the usual programming:

Steve, mentioned checking on an old friend up in age.
A very good example in this time to follow .

more so for those who are English as a second language.
Was just informed of the death of my daughters friend’s father.

Up in age 90, some noted he had not been out walking as he usually does.
He was found by someone making a health and welfare check.
It’s not known if it can be attributed to the virus,
He was within the age group profile for those affected most.

A phone call can help those who may not understand exactly what’s going on.
For those that do it may give them some reassurance.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Tom on Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:36 am

windwalker wrote:Side note to the usual programming:

. . .

A phone call can help those who may not understand exactly what’s going on.
For those that do it may give them some reassurance.


A thought worth repeating.
The spring does not fear the iron hammer’s strike.—Martin LaPlatney
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:44 am

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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby everything on Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:24 am

Steve James wrote:The trend. Hopefully, it will level off soon and not increase this way for weeks. Yet, there are still idiots deliberately contaminating groceries and products in stores. It will take cooperation for it to go away.


COVID-19: U.S. at a Glance* Saturday (2/14/20)
Total cases: 1,629
Total deaths: 41
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 47 (46 states and District of Columbia)

Total cases: 3,487 Monday
Total deaths: 68
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 53 (49 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

Total cases: 4,226 Tuesday
Total deaths: 75

Total cases: 7,038 Wednesday
Total deaths: 97

Total cases: 10,442 Thursday
Total deaths: 150

Total cases: 15,219 Friday
Total deaths: 201

Total cases: 33,404 Monday (2/23/20)
Total deaths: 400

Total cases: 44,183 Tuesday
Total deaths: 544
Jurisdictions reporting cases: 54 (50 states, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and US Virgin Islands)

Total cases: *55,234 Wednesday *from Johns Hopkins because the CDC site updates very late
Total deaths: *802

Total Cases: *69,197 Thursday * 3/26/2020
Total deaths: *1046


That is an incredibly alarming increase in deaths. From your data, it looks like it doubles every 2-3 days. Back of the envelope math if that continued at every 2 days, the counts would be:

In 4 days: 1000 x 2 x 2 = 4000 deaths.

In 10 days: 1000 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 32,000 deaths.

In 14 days: 1000 x 2^7 = 128,000 deaths.

It is obviously critical that that curve be flattened very soon.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:58 am

Yes, it's obvious. Think about it like this, if we flattened curve completely today, that would still mean a week or more at the same death rate. Note that the number of confirmed cases goes up at a different progression than the death rate. The confirmed number is critical, however, because 20% of it will be the approximate number of people hospitalized. At some point, the number of new cases will not increase more rapidly than the hospitals can handle. When treated, the survival rate is well over 90%. The question is what happens to those who can't receive treatment.

But, even if the number of deaths remains at 1000 for 7 days, that's not trivial. It would be great, though. Again, we can only slow the spread right now. If a wonder drug comes out tomorrow, that'll be fantastic. We have flu drugs, and a flu vaccine. The CDC reports that there were 59 million confirmed cases of the flu during the 2019/20 season. When people talk about how many died from it, they are comparing a game's final score to that of a game in progress. So, do the math. What "if" the same number of people who got the flu (for which millions received vaccinations) catch the covid19 virus? That's 59 million confirmed cases. Tack that onto the flu mortality rate.

Unfortunately, unless we're very lucky, and people take it into their own hands, the above is a best case scenario. The worst case is that double the number of cases than were for the flu. That's why bailewen, and others, are suggesting numbers in the millions.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby everything on Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:10 am

I didn't want to do the math for that but
28 days at the rate of doubling every 2 days: 1000 x 2^14 is 16.3 million+ deaths.

I have to believe even the stupid and won't-listen-to-anyone types of people will be listening before we get to that kind of "curve".
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby everything on Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:31 am

It looks like the confirmed case doubling rate is slower now, BUT that could just be due to shortage of tests. I don't think we can tell.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:04 pm

Yes, though Italy's confirmed cases will outnumber China's in a day, and the US is right behind. I thought that the US would pass Italy this week because I was hoping that the rate of new cases there would be going down faster. If Italy had hit a plateau, we might have been able to estimate ours.

You're right about testing. There's a big catch-22, though. The question now is the number of hospitalized. In NYC, for ex., we can (maybe should) assume that most of the city has caught the infection. Then, we should act accordingly. Every trip to be tested --unless the results are instant, and hospitalization is done-- causes more exposures. In Italy, for example, last week one of every thousand Italian citizens was a confirmed case. It's higher now. In NYC, we are also at the 1/1000 confirmed case rate.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby windwalker on Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:04 pm

Seems like at some point they would adopt the measures used by the military in a chemical / biological environment
when treating the pt, and keeping themselves free from contamination.

This would save on limited supplies of PPE

Typical Role 1 Army medical platoons are equipped with three
different medical equipment sets, for (1) tactical combat medical
care, (2) chemical agent patient treatment, and (3) chemical
agent patient decontamination. These sets provide a planning
factor (for how long supplies will last) of 2 days, or 48 hours,
of class VIII supplies. Chemical agent sets include supplies for
decontaminating 60 and treating 30 patients. Units are fielded
equipment based on their modified table of organization and
equipment (MTOE). Larger units will have higher quantities of
equipment items.
. https://www.cs.amedd.army.mil/borden/Fi ... 9db9d03095


They could use something more akin to vech decontamination using something that kills the virus that would be sprayed on those leaving the site
while they were in their PPE gear...testing it for traces of the virus the way they test surfaces now...
Last edited by windwalker on Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:07 pm

They are simply running out of supplies because there are too many patients.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:35 pm

On a lighter note ... in a way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTOQwlPdy0E
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