new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:10 am

There are a lot of sites where you can find the answers you seek. Do you want to look by country?
Here's one with a simple graph https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6

Here's an even simpler one with fewer pictures.
https://ncov2019.live/

Surprise! NKorea has had 0 cases.
Last edited by Steve James on Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:32 am

Everything asked for reports. I just read that the loss of smell or taste could be a symptom of the coronavirus. I have a friend who lives in a Manhattan building with a confirmed covid19 case. A few days back, he mentioned that he couldn't smell his coffee anymore, and was feeling tired. Fortunately, he's a bit hypochondriac, so he thought he had covid-19 anyway. So, he's been self isolating and worrying about his elderly mom.

I lose my sense of smell when I have a cold, but I'm usually "stuffed up" because colds are usually upper respiratory diseases. Anyway, if you have or know of someone who has noticed a loss of smell or taste, it might be a good idea to suggest that they isolate themselves for a while. And, anyone here been tested and found positive? What were your symptoms, if any?

Ain't it a bitch when Harvey Weinstein's already been tested and found positive.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Michael on Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:36 am

Incidentally, I think I had it with very mild symptoms (cough, fatigue, diarrhea for a few days). That was about a week and a half ago. Actually, I hope that was it. I only think so because of the diarrhea, actually. It's not a common symptom, but I know that something bacterial or viral was being expelled because of the smell. It might be tmi, but I noted it, and it went away after about three days. FWIW.

Glad you wrote about this. It confirms in my mind, to some extent, the notion that the virus already had time to spread throughout much of the cities of the USA and your symptoms were very similar to my uncle's.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:46 pm

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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby everything on Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:20 pm

I find the google map is easier to read than the other sources we linked, although there is less detailed breakdown.

https://google.org/crisisresponse/covid19-map

As of this writing, it looks like:
Total world cases close to half a million (confirmed, not actual).
Italy deaths near 7000.
USA deaths near 700. 53k+ confirmed cases (3rd in world).
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:28 pm

Use any figures you like. Just do the math. Take out a calculator and take 677 (the current number of US deaths) and double it every 2 days (our current rate) for 14 days. Of course, that number only refers to covid deaths. There'll be the same usual number of deaths, minus a lot of car accidents. Anyway, the number you come up with is why all those countries are locking down. It will be higher or lower depending on how the societies respond, not the stock market.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby everything on Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:35 pm

At the current doubling rate (approx every 2 days for USA confirmed cases, not accounting for any change in available testing), in 10 days, the USA will be at about 1.7 million confirmed cases.

At a 2% death rate, 34,000 deaths.
At a 3% death rate, 51,000 deaths.

In 14 days, the confirmed cases would be 6.8 million, approximately.
At a 2% death rate, 136,000 deaths.
At a 3% death rate, 204,000 deaths (will be linked to the virus, not that they will happen in that exact time period).

So hopefully we flatten the curve significantly in these next 14 days. But those are the numbers we're on track for at the current rate of doubling of cases.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby everything on Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:49 pm

On average, each USAmerican knows about 600 people.

So it takes about 1 more week before, on average, we will each know someone affected.

If we do not flatten the curve, at the rate of doubling every 2 days, it theoretically takes under 26 days for over 330 million people (US pop) to have confirmed cases (if there were enough tests and ability to test).
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:53 pm

Don't forget, 677 is "only" the current number of deaths. There are 52K confirmed cases altogether. Of that, 20% will need hospitalization. Hopefully, the geometric progression of deaths will slow more rapidly than the number of confirmed cases. I.e., it is hopeful to think that there will be some drug or combination that will come online in sooner than two weeks. Until then, we can only control the spread of the virus by not passing it on. If we cut the numbers in half, we will be way ahead. That's what we need to pass on.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby everything on Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:05 pm

They mentioned that NYers that left (to go to places like Florida) should self-quarantine now for 14 days. I doubt very much that they will do that. If they feel fine, they will have to stop at or go to various places on the way to Florida. That will "community spread" a lot of cases, unfortunately.

It's almost too scary to read but this thread https://twitter.com/craig_a_spencer/sta ... 08685?s=21 is an ER doctor's account of his typical day right now.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Franklin on Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:26 am

In taiwan most of the new cases for the last week have been from people returning from europe or usa

today taiwan news has reported that the strains that people are bringing back from europe and usa
are stronger and harder to treat
and children under 5 are having strong symptoms...


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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby bailewen on Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:52 am

Same thing on the mainland
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Franklin on Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:13 am

taiwan has done a lot of sequencing i think
so when they say that people are bringing it back from the US and europe
and it is harder to treat and stronger
it is most likely based on them sequencing the pathogen from the infected people
and of course the clinical pathology they are dealing with

a couple weeks ago some tawnaneese tourists returned from Egypt or Turkey on a tour
i don't remember the details
but basically - they accused the tawaneese person of bringing it to them
taiwan sequenced the pathogen that they had
and found it was a strain from europe
different from the one that came from china

fingers crossed - here in taiwan
we have not had any community outbreak
we have had a couple of small family transmissions
and one transmission from someone hospitalized (before diagnosis and quarantine) to a health care worker

but they have done a really good job so far
keeping it from coming in from China

and now- this wave that is bringing it back from europe and the US, and middle east
are all taiwaneese citizens who are either returning home - due to how crazy it is getting over there
or taiwaneese citizens that traveled before the destination countries were deemed unsafe...


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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Franklin on Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:21 am

another thing i heard today from a friend who teaches english online

they said today - they had a class with students from china
and asked them what are they going to do today in the class (as part of the lesson)

one student was located close to hubei (they told me where -- but i forgot)
and said they are not going out yet
the loudspeakers in the neighborhood keep announcing and warning people to stay indoors
even though the official central gov thing -- is that it is cool to go out

another student in the class from a different part of china
said they were going to go to the gym today
as where they live-
its safe to go out...



--- the same friend told me
around the time - the sonic booms were reported in wuhan
that they were teaching online one kid from china
and they said all you could hear in the background were jets flying around
said it sounded like a war zone
and even asked the kid-- is everything ok-
do you and your family need to be doing something else right now- besides an english lesson
kid was like -- i don't know -- my parents didn't say anything..





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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:59 am

Hmm, what is 0.2% of 7 billion?
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