Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:01 pm

"A man is rich when he has time and freewill. How he chooses to invest both will determine the return on his investment."
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Peacedog on Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:20 pm

I have an associate whose job it is to essentially fact check biomedical research for investment purposes.

I asked him about Covid related projects and he said, "in the better casinos, the win/lose split between the house and the gamblers is 51%/49%. You are about a thousand times more likely to be on the losing side with biomedical startups."

He basically made the point that the reason why small successful firms all get bought out by majors at incredible markups is that the odds of pulling off the development of a successful intervention of any kind are so low that they virtually count as black swan events every time they happen.

So yeah, any investment is pretty much guaranteed to fail. Only the enormous payday at the end for the rare successful ones make any of the research happen at all. To even equate it with gambling is a tremendous understatement.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:55 pm

so it's basically like start-up economics. you chase 100 would-be FBs (as the VC)
amateur practices til gets right pro til can't get wrong
/ better approx answer to right q than exact answer to wrong q which can be made precise /
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby roger hao on Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:05 pm

What is the word on ivermectin?
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:14 am

So yeah, any investment is pretty much guaranteed to fail. Only the enormous payday at the end for the rare successful ones make any of the research happen at all. To even equate it with gambling is a tremendous understatement.


Sounds like a great reason not to leave it in the hand of private industry. Also, to equate it with gambling is just bizzare.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby meeks on Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:17 am

"The power of Christ compels you!" *spank*
now with ADDED SMOOTHOSITY! ;D
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:01 am

"certified young person"

"what are you 26?"

"I didn't correct him"

how DOES Paul Rudd look so young still?

anyway, good PSA. "I shouldn't have to make it entertaining. It's science. UGH"
amateur practices til gets right pro til can't get wrong
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Peacedog on Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:48 am

Roughly 80-85% of all medical innovation world wide year to year happens in the US.

It happens here precisely because people can make money at.

It does not help that government boards made up of experts do a very poor job a picking winners, especially with something as complicated as medicine.

Government control of medicine in most countries is why they are free riders on the US system for virtually all development of any kind.

As the SAS motto goes, "Who Dares Wins."

It is true in military operations, it's true in medicine and it's true in anything that matters.

As for ivermectin, it is an interesting drug.

The wiki page is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermecti ... festations.

Primarily it is used to treat parasitic infections, but it also a has a variety of other effects involving viral infections (hence the Covid-19 interest). It's an interesting drug that I've personally used on a few occasions with great success. Side effects are few and it is well tolerated.

An off label use of a drug for treating active Covid infections is the most likely short term solution we are going to find. Ivermectin is well worth researching due to its multiple possible applications. Now would I recommend its use? I doubt it would cause any problems, but it is simply unclear if this will be a part of a likely treatment regime or not.
Last edited by Peacedog on Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby roger hao on Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:31 pm

Peacedog -
Right - I found this also.
It is prescribed in Brazil to be taken if you are in contact with Covid victim.
Called a miracle drug in Japan? - As important as penicillin.
Last edited by roger hao on Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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