Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

The following typical threads that plague martial arts sites will get moved here if not just deleted: 1 - My style is better than Your style" - 2 - "Internal & External" - 3 - Personal attacks - 4 - Threads that start well, but degenerate into a spiral of nonsense.

Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby grzegorz on Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:33 am

Trump Ignored Warnings and orher stuff.

Watch "China Recovers & U.S. Senators Profit Off The Pandemic | The Daily Social Distancing Show" on YouTube
https://youtu.be/M2wLiUhkmTk
Last edited by grzegorz on Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby grzegorz on Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:46 am

Before Trump’s inauguration, a warning: ‘The worst influenza pandemic since 1918’

In a tabletop exercise days before an untested new president took power, officials briefed the incoming administration on a scenario remarkably like the one he faces now.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/1 ... mic-132797

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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:17 pm

Fwiw, there's a flu vaccine that millions get, and still many people die. There's no covid19 vaccine, so one could guess that at least as many (20k) will die from it as the seasonal flu.

But, as anyone with sense would say, "It isn't a contest." If only 19K die, it's not a win for anyone. It's still possible to slow the spread, if enough people ignore those who compare it to the seasonal flu. I hope they're right.

In general, the governors in the worst hit states are doing a good job reassuring the public and instituting guidelines, curfews, and restrictions on gatherings. Yeah, "some" people think that these actions are too extreme. Scientists and doctors don't. When they say we should worry less, I'll take it seriously. I don't think the president should be saying anything at all. For one thing, it's funny to hear anybody talk about "social distancing" standing in a group of 6 people. Speakers could be on the stage one at a time. Also, you'd think that the pres and vice pres would stay separated from each other. If they both get sick, Pelosi is next in line.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:32 pm

“Senator Rand Paul has tested positive for COVID-19. He is feeling fine and is in quarantine,” the account tweeted Sunday afternoon. “He is asymptomatic and was tested out of an abundance of caution due to his extensive travel and events. He was not aware of any direct contact with any infected person.”

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sen-ra ... oronavirus

Yeah, I know. No big deal. He'll probably be just fine. Trouble is his "extensive travel and events". We know for sure that he's contacted lots of people --without even mind reading. Paul voted against the stimulus package, but he has lifetime health care as a senator.

Here's what he said earlier this month.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OjPogds_O8
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby grzegorz on Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:56 pm

Sounds like Chinese virus didn't have enough racial overtones.

Watch "Trump AGAIN defends saying 'Chinese virus,' is asked about WH official using term 'Kung Flu'" on YouTube

https://youtu.be/CkcxlYYad6o
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby windwalker on Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:13 pm

Yeah, I know. No big deal. He'll probably be just fine. Trouble is his "extensive travel and events". We know for sure that he's contacted lots of people --without even mind reading. Paul voted against the stimulus package, but he has lifetime health care as a senator



Must be them talking points that some talk about.

Another way of looking at it is a lot of people have contacted the senator.
Regarding the numbers the point was that if the flu was treated in the same way and acted on
the same type of panic would ensue.

Korea and some other countries pushed out a lot of testing devices, from reading about them seem to have a lot of false positives or negatives. Due to the various regulatory agencies in the US these testing devices among others have to be confirmed before being pushed out to the general public.

This process has been very much streamlined currently they say there is a device that can be used that confirms within 45 minutes or so .

Let’s hope some of the anti-malaria drugs can be used to either stop or mitigate the effects of the virus.
So far it seems to be promising.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:51 pm

Another way of looking at it is a lot of people have contacted the senator.


Yeah, but we don't know if they had the virus before he contacted them. He was also in the Senate, duh. Did he contact any of them? No, I don't know. You don't know. He doesn't know. But, it's possible to estimate that if he'd only transmitted the virus to one person, it would be better than if he'd contacted ten.

The corona virus can't be treated the same as the flu. That is the point. ANd, it's at least as transmissible as the flu. Some doctors say that it's ten times more transmissible --but, I'm not a doctor; I have no clue. I'm not selfish enough to advise others not to take this more seriously than they do the flu.

Yeah, happy talk about a vaccine in the short term or a treatment. Sure, they can't get testing kits and masks to people, but they'll be able to get a "cure" to those who need it. Besides, the wealthy will get it first. How do I know? People with money got coronavirus tested before most health care workers. They'll get the medicines/cures first. Trump, himself, said, "It's always been like that." And, if these drugs are prescription based, the wealthy will have them prescribed and buy up supplies.

However, that ignores the whole point of the "it's only the flu" argument. Any drug used will (should) go to the 20% of the infected who are in severe condition. If 80% of the infected have mild symptoms, they won't get the drug. We can only hope that people like Paul haven't spread the virus because they minimized the risk. If people are told it isn't serious, they won't take it seriously.

I said before. It's a numbers game. Believe what you want about why it's happening. It will help if people stay apart for a while. That's the only sure way to slow the transmission. You can't blame the Chinese for spreading the misinformation. Afa the ultimate seriousness, there's no need to argue. Maybe's he's right, and it will just go away by April. Everybody hopes so, I hope.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby grzegorz on Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:57 pm



How the Government Botched the Coronavirus Response (LegalEagle’s Real Law Review)
https://youtu.be/r4EVn03aCJg
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby bailewen on Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:10 pm

windwalker wrote:
I love you man, but you are spreading truly dangerous memes. You are literally increasing the number of people who will die.


You might try reading the article, if you can.


I did. But the problem is you posted a giant picture with a giant red "no" on the mask people should be buying and a giant green "yes" on the one people should not be buying. Then, in a link in an article that you have to dig into and analyse...hidden way back in all of that is the note that well, actually, you should wear the mask labeled "bad".

That's a very dangerous meme. It should not be spread. You basically said, in giant color coded image form: AVOID THIS MASK, USE THIS KIND.

The incorrect message was large and color coded.
The correct message was hidden.

We should just not be posting images like that. It sends the exact opposite message of what is needed.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby bailewen on Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:15 pm

Another note about complaining that China did not react fast enough.

For the sake of argument, fine, I'll accept that they totally botched it. I don't believe that, but lets say it's true.

How does that excuse our own US response? Has the United States fallen so far that our national security is reliant on autocratic dictatorships on the other side of the world living up to standards that we ourselves cannot meet? That is humiliating. I mean, it's downright embarrassing. It's a whiny crybaby response.

We had plenty of time to prepare.

What has our country come to that our best response to a global pandemic is to clasp our hands in prayer that some other country will handle it well enough?

Truly embarrassing.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby bailewen on Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:27 pm

windwalker wrote:look at the time line. what the WHO said "its not human transferable" based on reports from China.
Then look at when the the time the travel restriction enacted, which many at the time
felt was the wrong move.

...

Be that as it may, once the trend line is understood...we will know if mitigation efforts were enough
or in time

I have no idea when exactly WHO said that. I tried to Google it just now. I did not find anything. But regardless of when they said that, by January, it was common knowledge that this was 10x as fatal as the common flu and vastly more contagious. But this is my personal timeline:

January 18
I flew from China to America. About a week later, it was already so bad that China had decided to extend the holiday in order to limit transmission. At that point in time, Trump was still on TV making jokes about it. He was calling it a Democratic hoax.

January 27
My wife tells me to consider extending my time with family a couple days because I don't have to get back to work till Feb 3. Thankfully, I decide not to and fly home on the 28th, as originally planned.

January 30
Everyone on the plane had masks. I forgot my mask back in LA (not a surgical mask, just a standard Chinese style winter mask). The airline (Cathay Pacific) gives me a mask and asks me to pleas wear it for the flight. When I arrive in Xi'an, there is an extra long customs line because they have to take our temperature and we have to fill out special COVID related questionnaires. I take cab home and we end up spending nearly 2 hours at a checkpoint. I have to provide passport ID, name, etc for a notebook the cab driver has, and again at the checkpoint, where people in hazmat suits are spraying down the cars with disinfectants and interviewing people before they let us into Xi'an.

Feb 1
I get notice from work that we will actually be staying at home another week. The US bans travel from China. Many flights from the into China are cancelled. I thank god I made it back to China in time.

Feb 3
I get notice from work that actually it will be 2 weeks, but we will work remotely. So they set up virtual desktops for us to work from. Trump is still claiming this is a hoax and is on TV saying that when the weather warms up it will disappear "like a miracle".

Feb 17
I return to work, but we all have to sign in to a special app where we report if we have symptom, have been in contact with anyone from Wuhan, etc. At work, we all wait in line at the gate, spaced 1 meter apart, get our temp taken and are issues a special tag for our lanyards indicating we have been cleared before we can enter the office. No one is allowed in without a surgical mask. Every Monday, all employees are issued a 10-pack of masks. There is a guy in a hazmat suit spraying down all vehicles as they enter the campus. The cafeteria is now take out only and you can only buy pre-packged box lunches. Underground parking is not longer available.

Feb 18
The market starts tanking, but I haven't noticed yet. It's still bouncing up and down a bit.

Feb 19 (I think)
I call my brother in LA to talk about what it's like, and he puts a friend on the phone who says he thinks China is the safest place in the world at that time because the government is taking it so seriously. Also, he says when it gets to the US, we are fucked, because we have not taken any protective measures. He says he thinks lots of people will get sick and the market will tank. I sleep on it, and the next day open a margin account.

Feb 20
I liquidate some crypto I have and use the funds to start shorting the market. The US still has not taken any serious action. Trump still says it's a hoax and a lot of pointless measures are taken to try an buoy the stock market. Each time, the market surges briefly but then crashed harder the next day.

If you or any here feel the response was not right
would be very interested in what you or others would have done differently.

I would have listened to the experts. I would have ramped up production of surgical masks and promoting social distancing on TV. I would have been wearing a surgical mask on TV, like they were doing in China, to emphasize the seriousness. I would have cancelled political rallys and started talking about possibly locking down major cities so that it wouldn't be such a shock when it happened and people could stock up without freaking out and hording supplies. I would have been letting Dr. Fauci do the talking when speaking on the virus. I would have been pushing a natinwide educational campaign about the virus and working with industry to ramp up delivery services, and much more.

As I am not president, I could not do any of that. So what I did instead was short the stock market so I wouldn't get crushed by the super obviously looming financial disaster. After abandoning Facebook several years ago, I got back onto social media and started trying to bat down rumors and disinformation wherever I could. I came back to this forum for the same reason. I reached out to family to see what I could do, and to see if there was a way to plan for the expected period of unemployment for my family members in the restaurant industry. I donated money to https://www.nokidhungry.org/ because a lot of kids rely on school lunch programs for food, and school lunches are not available when schools are closed.

So that's my timeline and what I would have done differently.

what can one say....
believe what you will

There was panic on Fox News, but no schools closed, no cities needed to be locked down, no hospitals were running out of supplies, and there were no runs on the national toilet paper supply.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby windwalker on Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:58 pm

I would have listened to the experts. I would have ramped up production of surgical masks and promoting social distancing on TV. I would have been wearing a surgical mask on TV, like they were doing in China, to emphasize the seriousness. I would have cancelled political rallys and started talking about possibly locking down major cities so that it wouldn't be such a shock when it happened and people could stock up without freaking out and hording supplies. I would have been letting Dr. Fauci do the talking when speaking on the virus. I would have been pushing a natinwide educational campaign about the virus and working with industry to ramp up delivery services, and much more.


thanks very nice

you do understand what a federal republic is and how it works?

also one should note, incrementalism as conditions change.

On January 13, the virus spreads beyond China's borders for the first time with a case emerging in Thailand, according to the WHO. The victim is a Chinese woman diagnosed with mild pneumonia who was returning from a trip to Wuhan.

On January 15 China's health commission says no human-to-human transmission of the virus behind the Wuhan outbreak has been confirmed so far, but the possibility "cannot be excluded".


The World Health Organisation (WHO) said in a statement that based on the preliminary information from the Chinese investigation team, “no evidence of significant human-to-human transmission and no healthcare worker infections have been reported”.


The Chinese did not allow anyone else into the area nor did they provide the data needed to understand what was going on...

a little bit after the The impeachment attempt.
December 18, 2019 to February 5, 2020 (1 month, 2 weeks and 4 days)

I would imagen considering what was going on. the administration needed to have
very sound reasoning for the travel restrictions at the end of jan...31....which many criticized
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby windwalker on Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:12 pm

I must say I do find it interesting in that.
Many of the states don't enforce federal laws,
actively working against it.

then question why, the fed gov,
doesn't do or cant do more.

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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby bailewen on Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:27 pm

thanks very nice

you do understand what a federal republic is and how it works?


Here is an itemized list of my recommendations:

1. I would have listened to the experts.
2. I would have ramped up production of surgical masks...
3. ...promoting social distancing on TV.
4. I would have been wearing a surgical mask on TV, like they were doing in China, to emphasize the seriousness.
5. I would have cancelled political rallys and started talking about possibly locking down major cities so that it wouldn't be such a shock when it happened and people could stock up without freaking out and hording supplies.
6. I would have been letting Dr. Fauci do the talking when speaking on the virus.
7. I would have been pushing a natinwide educational campaign about the virus and working with industry to ramp up delivery services, and much more.

Of those 7 actionable steps, every single one is well within the regular functioning of a federal republic, with the possible exception of #2, but you could replace that with "stocked up on", and we'd be fine.

On January 13, the virus spreads beyond China's borders for the first time with a case emerging in Thailand, according to the WHO. The victim is a Chinese woman diagnosed with mild pneumonia who was returning from a trip to Wuhan.

On January 15 China's health commission says no human-to-human transmission of the virus behind the Wuhan outbreak has been confirmed so far, but the possibility "cannot be excluded".

So even according to Chinese sources, it is possible that it can be transmitted.

1 week later (Jan 21), the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirms the first coronavirus case in the United States, and another week after that the entire country of China is on lockdown. Everything is shutdown and they launch a "people's war" against the virus.

Look man, you don't make policy, so at the end of the day, your opinion on this is not that important. I put my money where my mouth is. I invested in the stock market collapsing, which is has done. I predict we will see at least a million more cases in the US and significantly more death than anything since the "Spanish" flu. I also predict the economy will spiral out of control, the market will tank worse than it did in '08 and the unemployment rate will be near double what we saw back then. Let's just check back in a couple months and see which one of us is right.
Last edited by bailewen on Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:29 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:48 pm

Many criticized, but the problem is that you insist on spreading false information and supporting it. IF that's what you learned from being on the front lines fighting H1N1 and building military hospitals, etc., then there's nothing to say. You've repeated all the incorrect memes and for the same sad reason. To defend Trump's words and deeds. See, even if the real experts are wrong, it's safer to believe them, and better to be safe than sorry.

Besides, agreeing with the people who take it too seriously only means stay out of contact with lots of people. It could save someone's life. So, think of it as something you can do for the country. You know, like the butterfly beating its wings across the ocean, you could save someone's life here.

Btw, I do believe that the president is doing the best that he can do. To say it's the best anyone else could have done is quite some speculation. But, okay. The numbers will be the numbers, no matter who understands. It's simple. Check tomorrow. If the numbers start to go down, then what he did in the past worked. If they go up, then saying he did enough or more than anyone else is meaningless. Sure, if he'd done less, the numbers would be higher.

Btw, when he stopped travel from China, the virus must have already spread to the Koreas, and to Europe. Travelers from there carried it around the world, making it a pandemic. Sure, one could argue that immediate quarantining of an area and restriction of travel is best. The problem is simple. By the time anyone knows there is a new strain of something, someone has gotten sick enough to need a doctor. At the same time, everyone he's met has already been infected. Otoh, there are lots of people who are infected but do not show any symptoms. That's what's happening here right now. It's not political.
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