Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby bailewen on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:01 am

Maybe you mean in your life time...went through the "swine " flu,,opps I mean H1N1 back in the 70s,as an army medic..
in 2009 "Between the spring of 2009 and the spring of 2010, the virus infected as many as 1.4 billion people across the globe and killed between 151,700 and 575,400 people, "


I'm going to studiously ignore certain parts of that, Wind, to avoid disrupting the thread, but I would be happy to expand via PM.

But no, I mean "our". H1N1 is not even close to what is happening now. Just wait and see. This is just getting started. The so-called "swine flu" wasn't even close to as dangerous as this. This is orders of magnitude more disruptive. Los Angles, New York, and I think soon parts of Florida on lockdown. Hospitals nationwide already out of supplies. The USA is quite perfectly following the Italian pattern, except with a vastly larger population. We are only a few month in to the US epidemic and already the stock market has crashed harder than in '08 and a TRILLION dollar deal only created a minor uptick before more crashing. Vast swaths of the population are out of work with. There have been runs on basic supplies, gun sales are up, and hospital workers are hand sewing their own masks.

Conformed cases, and the fatality rate, have been growing exponentially, and also in extremely close correlation with most mainstream predictions. Personally, my most conservative guess is that we will see 200,000 to 250,000 cases and at least twice as many fatalities as China even though our population is only about 1/3 of theirs and we had three times as much time to prepare.

It's going to get very ugly. It already has, and this is just getting started.

edited for typos.
Last edited by bailewen on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:07 am

Whoever said two weeks ago that the virus is just like the flu, or a common cold, definitely had poor judgment, but maybe is just stupid. If thousands of people die in the US die because of this virus, nobody's going to want to take the blame. The people staying out on the beaches, etc., are doing it because of the bad information that they got, even from lawmakers, urging them to go out and have a corona. And, worst of all, they got that information because they heard stupid people claim that the "bad" news about the virus was fake.

If China mounted a deliberate viral attack on the US, and the leaders called it a hoax designed to make them look bad, sure, the results could be blamed on China. It accomplished what it wanted to do. If China f-ed up, and the leaders tried to cover their asses, ok. But, you can't blame China for US stupidity, preparations or lack thereof.

China has the longest experience with this, and they're sending people to Italy to help. The president making sure to call it the "Chinese virus" every time he speaks just pisses Chinese people off for no reason. It is absolutely useless to any scientist or doctor, and only useful to politicians who need someone to attack. "Covid19" is just too abstract. You can't say it has an ugly face, or has bad eating habits, or is lazy.

Anyway, things in NY are eerily quiet, but it makes me feel a bit more comfortable that the rate of transmissions are going down, even though the number of diagnosed cases will certainly increase. Midtown is not really a residential area, and Wall Street has gone to online trading. Where I live there are a lot of small stores and a few of medium size, so the closing of big stores doesn't really affect me much. I can get whatever I need somewhere. People who live downtown are suffering through lines now because the small stores gave way to Starbucks, etc.

I live approximately 8 miles from the center of the epidemic (which was in New Rochelle). My grandson lives with me. He's an adult, but rarely washes his hands. But, I just pretend that we have it and act accordingly. I.e., if I'm not sick enough to go to the emergency room, I should do the same thing I should do if I had a cold or the flu. I.e., do what I can not to spread it. I go out twice a day. Btw, I ride my bike. Actually, the mayor is going to expand bike lanes and has encouraged people to ride whenever possible. The subways will be restricted to "essential" personnel and run on a reduced schedule. But, solitary exercise is encouraged. Of course, it's possible to see people --especially young ones-- gathering together. They probably think their invincible. However, the idea is to reduce the transmission rate and thereby slow down the number of people who need hospitalization to a point where they can all be treated.

Anyway, I think that it's great that the city is on pause. The water and air will be cleaner. We can only hope that we won't have the same experience as Italy. It won't matter who's getting the blame. And, I don't bother listening to any politicians other than those local to me for any information.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby bailewen on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:08 am

Franklin wrote:was just speaking about the Chinese side of things
not US vs China blame game as to who waited longer

This may just be my personality. I get insanely dismissive of certain types of hypocrisy.

If the US is basically actively promoting the virus, I mean being INSANELY irresponsible, refusing test kits, encouraging people to keep going to bars (thanks Nunes), just being generally anti science, then a giant cup of STFU is well deserved. Right now, based on current US response, we have absolutely ZERO authority on this issue. Maybe Israel could point fingers, but the US response has been truly irresponsible. We are pointing fingers and trying to shift blame instead of taking action. Over all, the Chinese response has been quite admirable. A cover up that lasted a few weeks, when nobody had any idea how serious this was, is pretty minor. When it came to the US, that excuse was gone. Also, more importantly, I would like to think we should be held to a higher standard. Extremely sadly, this event has created a really strong argument for authoritarian rule, and that may be the second most tragic part of the entire pandemic.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby windwalker on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:18 am

Pm or here both work

But no, I mean "our". H1N1 is not even close to what is happening now. Just wait and see. This is just getting started. The so-called "swine flu" wasn't even close to as dangerous as this. This is orders of magnitude more disruptive.


So called? It was not called swine flu or named swine flu ?
If you can see the chart on The history of viruses it’s called swine flu .
Other viruses are called different names other than their scientific name.

Considering the type of government the US has, the steps being taken are consistent within The social structure that the government is built on. In this aspect places like China and Korea are more able to respond quickly without regards to the social disruptions.

It remains to be seen how the virus is different from the others, so far it seems to be more easily transmited often with the carriers not showing symptoms. there may be aspects not yet made public. Hopefully a vaccination will be developed shortly.

Be safe
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby bailewen on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:21 am

I saw "so called" because it is a misnomer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

the virus appeared to be a new strain of H1N1, which resulted from a previous triple reassortment of bird, swine, and human flu viruses further combined with a Eurasian pig flu virus,[8] leading to the term "swine flu"


Pigs were involved, but were not central. The name just stuck. It was the same family of flu as the 1918 flue. It was an H1N1 virus.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby windwalker on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:25 am

bailewen wrote:
Franklin wrote:was just speaking about the Chinese side of things
not US vs China blame game as to who waited longer

This may just be my personality. I get insanely dismissive of certain types of hypocrisy.

If the US is basically actively promoting the virus, I mean being INSANELY irresponsible, refusing test kits, encouraging people to keep going to bars (thanks Nunes), just being generally anti science, then a giant cup of STFU is well deserved. Right now, based on current US response, we have absolutely ZERO authority on this issue. Maybe Israel could point fingers, but the US response has been truly irresponsible. We are pointing fingers and trying to shift blame instead of taking action. Over all, the Chinese response has been quite admirable. A cover up that lasted a few weeks, when nobody had any idea how serious this was, is pretty minor. When it came to the US, that excuse was gone. Also, more importantly, I would like to think we should be held to a higher standard. Extremely sadly, this event has created a really strong argument for authoritarian rule, and that may be the second most tragic part of the entire pandemic.


Not playing the blame game.
I would suggest looking at the timeline and seeing how
quickly the response was .

You might remember that at the same time the Congress was trying to impeach the president.
What they did do was going on behind the scenes .

Due to the type of government the US has as you know,
local states are the main ones in charge of what happens at their level.

Very different from most other countries.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby grzegorz on Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:53 am

bailewen wrote:
everything wrote:bailewen -

could you describe a little of what daily life is like over there? are people relaxing a little? what are errands like going to the store like now?


Sure. And I'll get back to Windwalker a little later. That was a long post and I don't have the energy for it at the moment. It's already like 10:30 at night out here, but I will look over it tomorrow and do my best to offer my honest opinion.

As of about a week ago, I no longer needed to fill out paperwork to leave my housing community and about 90% of us are back at the office instead of working remotely. To enter a larger supermarket like Walmart (not a big box megastore in China, just a normal supermarket sized place)...you still need to either sign a little form with your passport number and name and get your temp taken, but for mom and pop stores, you can just buy stuff normally. You do need to wear a face mask to be allowed in anywhere and you will get SERIOUS stink eye if you head outside without one one, but the N95 masks have been virtually non-existent from the start. We just wear like, disposable masks that look like surgical masks.

About 2 weeks ago I saw the first traffic jam since before I visited LA in January for Chinese New Year. Never been so happy to see a traffic jam in my life.

Public transit is back but you need to flash a QR code on your phone to board a bus or subway. The QR code is linked to a phone app that tracks your movements (Orwellian much?) but the idea is that if you have been in contact with someone from Wuhan or a confirmed COVID patient, your QR code will change from green to yellow or red and your movements will be correspondingly limited. I think it was very buggy, poorly executed, and needlessly quarantined a lot of people based in big data analysis that, honestly, was still in the beta stage.

I have a little app from work that I have to sign into daily where I answer a questionnaire about who I have been in contact with, if I have any symptoms and where I've been. The PSB has also called me on the phone 2 or 3 times since I have been back, mainly asking if I have been outside of Xi'an, when I got back, and where I went.

That being said, it feels (very subjectively) like maybe 80% of the local shops are open again and my apartment complex has stopped asking me to either fill out a form or flash the QR code when I come or go. At work, the cafeteria was still closed, last I checked, but you could get food to go and eat at your desk. My temperature gets taken at work twice a day and every afternoon a guy comes through the office and mists the entire place with some sort of Lysol fog. The company gym was still closed, last I checked, and we no longer have face-to-face meetings, which is hardly a change since 80% of out meetings were always online anyways. I keep saying "last I checked" because I have actually been on paternity leave for a week, which, in Chinese culture, is already effectively a 1 month quarantine. ;D So the hospital was a little weird as they were only allowing 1 person at a time in the hospital to accompany mom, and officially we were not allowed to switch people, but if I came to the hospital sort of late at night, they would let me trade places with grandma as long as I promised to hide in the maternity ward and not wander about.

Basically, most things are back to sort of normal except everyone still wears masks everywhere and there's a lot of weird regulations at work. Like in addition to what I already mentioned, there are boxes of Kleenex in all the elevators so people can take one and use it to press the buttons. Restaurants are open but still take out only. The family of that Dr Li received some sort of cash compensation and CCTV tonight announce the PSB had offered a formal apology and he is generally being regarded as a national hero.

All in all, it feels like they over reacted, but looking at what is happening in the US right now, much better than the opposite.

So this is why I find it insane that western media keeps acting so surprised. From inside China, this was all on the news, daily, all day, every day. The same numbers you are seeing on the western media have been on Chinese media. The mayor of Wuhan was excoriated by the local media just as bad as by western media. The doctor, after the initial attack from the PSB, within about a month, was reframed as a tragic hero. Public parks are open again. Life is sort of normal'ish. It's very weird, but throughout the entire thing, there has been no hording. In the time since I returned from the US right at the end of Chinese new year, I have had no trouble buying any basic groceries, just had to wait in line to get my temp taking and to fill out a form before entering a supermarket. Now, I don't even have to do that.

The USA response, in contrast, has been humiliating.


Thanks for sharing Omar. It's great to hear your insights again. Congratulations on the baby! Raising kids is the biggest challenge I have ever taken and I have been through a lot.

It's strange being in the US. Many are still in denial yet hoarding for hoarding's sake. A good friend in his eighties tried to tell me that the Pres has has done more to combat this virus than other president in history and how wonderful that is. Naturally I told him what my opinion is but more importantly (I told him) this "war" has just started and if anything it is a two front war first with the virus and secondly with a complete collapse of the US economy. We have no idea where we will end up when all this is over but as you stated slow reaction time, denial, refusing test kits from the WHO, dismantling (or losing) the pandemic task force, now we Americans have to embrace our fate and Trump has to embrace his.
Last edited by grzegorz on Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:10 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby grzegorz on Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:00 am

Fact is only Trump is called it the Chinese virus because he can't accept responsibility for anything that happens in his life. Here is his speech.


Image

We all get it Wind. You really really really like the Pres.
Last edited by grzegorz on Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:32 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:04 am

Covid19 is harder to say and spell than Chinese.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Michael on Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:13 am

A Florida lawfirm has sued China over the pandemic.

CHINASCOPE: U.S. Law Firm Filed Class Action Lawsuit against Beijing over Its Role in Coronavirus Pandemic

From the two sources:

The law group employs as consultants former state Sen. Joseph Abruzzo and Frank Biden, brother of presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden.

But Frank Biden is not involved in this lawsuit, both he and the firm, told The Palm Beach Post Friday.


The suit names five plaintiffs, none of whom have the virus, but who say they were adversely impacted by the outbreak. The Berman Group, a Boca Raton-based law firm representing the five plaintiffs, say they’ve received dozens of calls from others looking to be added to the complaint since filing.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:40 am

Will anyone be able to sue Florida for this?
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby grzegorz on Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:48 am

everything wrote:Congrats, bailewen, and thanks for the fantastic overview of what's going on over there where you are.

Over here, I'm sure nobody can imagine phone tracking or signing in and out of everywhere. Everyone in my little 3 mile square area stays 6ft apart from each other. We went to the pharmacy and they put a folding table in front of the register to create a little distance. I do wish everyone got their temperature taken wherever they go. There was a crazy looking dude wearing a gas mask in the store yesterday. OTOH, he probably kept everyone else safe from his germs so perhaps good for him for doing that, and we should copy him. Traffic is not super low but not high. Everyone is probably out shopping, looking for TP.

The hoarding (done during other disasters as well) is interesting. Panic buying just begets panic buying. I think we feel some more sense of control over at least something ("what can I do? I can prep by buying some stuff.").


Odd how masks work. When I wear a mask people stay far from me and I notice cashiers get nervous but I wear them for their protection as much as my own.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Michael on Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:50 am

I'm sure there's a lawyer with a brief to sue Florida officials for suspending rights to congregate, and the same lawyer with another brief prepared to sue them for not protecting the public.

Although I'm not certain if there are precedents for that when your clients are people doing buttcrack shots during a pandemic.

Image

Video here if you have the stomach for it.
https://streamable.com/kc1jo

Buttcrack Slurper wrote:Nobody here gives a f*ck about the Coronavirus


Here's what the Polish guy on twitter wrote when he re-posted that clip:

There is a reason for why China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore & Taiwan managed to get their outbreaks under control but Europe and the US don't.

East Asian societies have disciplin and respect for elderly & authority.
Last edited by Michael on Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:13 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby Steve James on Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:19 am

You mean the lawyers of those who get the virus from someone coming up from spring break, etc. Or, if I were a resident who contracted the disease from people coming to my beach. But, most people will go until you tell them not to; some will go just because they were told not to.

They can sue if they want, check the current stats for the USA and Florida. New Jersey was a hotspot a few days ago; FLorida is moving past. So, let's check in a few days to see what was wise. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR2oCO4VcKFDObQ_ASAX3uAtEBsPCrv86NjoBgZzwVDGVzYGHJqDweNlCYg#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6
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Re: new thread on covid-19 updates in your location

Postby everything on Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:32 am

grzegorz wrote:
everything wrote:Congrats, bailewen, and thanks for the fantastic overview of what's going on over there where you are.

Over here, I'm sure nobody can imagine phone tracking or signing in and out of everywhere. Everyone in my little 3 mile square area stays 6ft apart from each other. We went to the pharmacy and they put a folding table in front of the register to create a little distance. I do wish everyone got their temperature taken wherever they go. There was a crazy looking dude wearing a gas mask in the store yesterday. OTOH, he probably kept everyone else safe from his germs so perhaps good for him for doing that, and we should copy him. Traffic is not super low but not high. Everyone is probably out shopping, looking for TP.

The hoarding (done during other disasters as well) is interesting. Panic buying just begets panic buying. I think we feel some more sense of control over at least something ("what can I do? I can prep by buying some stuff.").


Odd how masks work. When I wear a mask people stay far from me and I notice cashiers get nervous but I wear them for their protection as much as my own.


yeah if everyone did it, I guess we'd all feel different.
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