Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

[Steve James]

You weren't responding to me here, are you? With Tucker Carlson explaining how NYC leaders failed? I get the argument that's coming though. It's more "whatabout." Such as "whatabout" Obama's handling of ebola. Or, whatabout China's faults and foolishness. Or, whatabout DiBlasio? See, they all mess up ... and we know what comes next, so I won't derail the thread. Yep, if only NY had handled it better. Bringing in the national guard when there were only cases in one county wasn't enough.

Tucker was the one who woke up ... fergit it. New Orleans cases are rising faster than NYC's btw. Anyway, I would criticize NY's governor or mayor if I thought they deserved it. People have the obligation to criticize political leaders who say and do stupid things. We can punish them at the polls. Let's see what happens in Texas.

[Michael]

Yes, I was responding to you here.

The measures that were necessary in Wuhan to control the virus can not be duplicated in the USA, and with a self-incubating hotspot like NYC, people who have already shown their incompetence will have trouble changing course to do what's necessary.

[Giles]

The best protective measure is masks and we do not have them because we outsourced those, as well as medicine to China. That is part of globalization and some of its downsides are becoming more apparent now.

Hi Michael,

'Protective measure' can be interpreted in different ways, depending on context, but just to be on the safe side:

There are a zillion responsible sources on the net that remind us that for normal people leading normal lives - well, 'normal' at the moment - masks are NOT the best protection. At least if we're talking about the standard 'surgical' types, and we mean protecting yourself from infection. You need a real sealed-around-the-edges, more high-tech kind mask for that. The kind of masks you see most people wearing on the street, especially in Asia, have a certain (but not great) level of effectiveness in protecting other people from your contamination, should you have been infected but not know it.

The most effective measures for normal people are:
- Distancing: stay at least 6 feet from other people, and more if possible, and don't congregate in groups (apart from the people you live with anyway). Being close to 'strangers' in indoor spaces is principally more hazardous than outdoors.
- Wash your hands with soap or disinfect them every time you return from a foray out of your own 'safe' living environment.
- While out and about, don't touch your face your possibly contaminated hands. Once you're home and washed, you can scratch, lick, wipe and pick to your heart's desire . But then wash again before you go out.

Simple paper/textile masks don't do any harm in principle, but some experts fear that wearing one can lull people into a false sense of security and encourage them to let up on the really important, above-quoted protection measures.

If desired I could cite a few of the many sources on this. But you can find many yourself in less than a minute.

[Steve James]

Like I said, some world leaders and local leader have said stupid things or not done smart things that have made this worse. There was actually a modelling for a pandemic done last year or the year before whose results were similar to what is happening now. There were predictable problems that could have been addressed. Waitaminit. Why weren't they done? 1. Location. It's far away. 2. It would cost money to prepare. 3. It would be politically unpopular because of reasons 1 and 2. 4. No leader wanted to take the risk. As you pointed out, it was a matter of cost versus social, economic, and political benefit. Consequently, it was minimized and leaders crossed their fingers and made a bet that it would not be as serious as predicted. Rather, it was (and is) often presented as a problem created purely to make a politician less electable or destroy the economy for the same reason.

They were wrong. Afa different forms of government, if a government does not protect the lives of its citizens, the citizens need a new government. We can't say that our form is better if we have more mortalities than a communist country. No worries though, the people in parliamentary democracies and even autocracies are also suffering with the disease.

[Steve James]

Here's an easy test Michael. Go to this site: go to Texas: zoom in on Texas: note where there are cases. Now, recognize that for every confirmed case in all those cities there are 50 asymptomatic persons. If they're not doing what NYC did, it can be worse there. Every confirmed cases represents 100 possible cases. People will get sick around the same time.

I checked: Texas, as of today, reports
Confirmed: 1,659
Deaths: 18
Recovered: 11

So, that's where the predictive math comes into play, and one can be as optimistic or pessimistic as one likes. For instance, low ball estimate might be since 1600 have tested positive, there are probably 16 thousand infected. An pessimistic estimate would be that there were 165 thousand infected. I.e, that those tested would have come into contact with ten people who ten met ten people.

[Michael]

Thanks Giles, that's a very good explanation about the masks. I tried in my way to explain that to people in China about the necessity of a seal and why N95 type industrial masks are much more effective than simple surgical masks, or the various fashionable things they wear in China because of air pollution, but many complained that it is too difficult to breathe when wearing them if they have a seal or require much pressure.

Staying 6 feet away from people, while a good idea, is mostly impossible to do when you have any specific purpose to go inside. The videos I posted about social distancing enforcement in Nanjing show that it can be done in some places, like restaurants, but not in others, like public transportation.

Washing hands is always good, but you quickly re-contaminate yourself according to the base-level of residual, infectious or "dirty" material on you, around you, stuck to the bottle of disinfectant someone handed you, etc. However, every time you wash correctly, you reduce the amount of material on your hand's skin to minimal, and just need to worry about the fingernails. Some people love their fingernails more than their microbiology.

Still should wash and disinfect, especially after handling something "dirty", but you could not find this kind of habit in mainland China before the virus. If they have now adopted it, that would be wonderful. Other personal waste disposal routines also had room for adjustment.

[Michael]

Here's an easy test Michael. Go to this site: go to Texas: zoom in on Texas: note where there are cases. Now, recognize that for every confirmed case in all those cities there are 50 asymptomatic persons. If they're not doing what NYC did, it can be worse there. Every confirmed cases represents 100 possible cases. People will get sick around the same time.

I do not think there is such parallel predictability because once there is a high concentration, there is a self-incubating effect that increases rate of transmission.

[Steve James]

Michael, you are not washing your hands to protect yourself. You're just trying to make sure you don't transmit the virus to someone else. If you're at home alone and no one comes in, you don't need to wash your hands any more than usual. If people washed their hands regularly, there'd be fewer colds, flus and any other transmissible disease.

Yeah, it's hard to socially distance in a supermarket waiting on line with all the other shoppers who make sure they stock up on toilet paper. Just don't go to the supermarket. Or, go when it's not as crowded --not empty, but not packed. If you have it, you can't spread it as far.

Again, so many people are saying the disease isn't so serious and 98% survive. So, assume you're one of those who survived or have strong immunity. Great. Don't be afraid for yourself. However, you are a carrier. What will work wherever this virus shows up is being as aggressive as possible regarding its spread when the numbers are low.

[Michael]

Michael, you are not washing your hands to protect yourself. You're just trying to make sure you don't transmit the virus to someone else.

Many thanks, Brother Steve . I understand how it works.

Another good example is the non-sealing surgical mask. It does significantly reduce the wearer's outward transmission by preventing droplet expulsion. As Giles pointed out, it is less effective at preventing their ingestion of other people's droplets and aerosols.

If "da gubmint" had had 3 billion surgical masks to distribute and we all wore them, it would drop the transmissions. That's what China did. You could not go outside without a mask and there are vids of people being arrested for that from January.

Again, so many people are saying the disease isn't so serious and 98% survive.

The disease is deadly serious, but there are obvious factors why NYC is a hotspot and they do not exist much elsewhere. The population density of Manhattan is about the same as Guangzhou (I checked the stats way back in 2008 before Guangzhou began to expand rapidly in every direction), and I'm sure very similar to Wuhan. Other American cities approaching this include San Francisco, but certainly not in Texas. Northern California is a hotspot and if we had them, everyone in NYC area and SF Bay area should wear surgical type masks whenever outside or interacting with strangers. But we don't have them and I do not think it could be easily enforced without a lot of encouragement. When President Xi went outside, he wore a mask as an example because older Chinese resist doing so.

[windwalker]

Thanks Giles, that's a very good explanation about the masks. I tried in my way to explain that to people in China about the necessity of a seal and why N95 type industrial masks are much more effective than simple surgical masks, or the various fashionable things they wear in China because of air pollution, but many complained that it is too difficult to breathe when wearing them if they have a seal or require much pressure.

Having been the military I'm sure you and some others here probably had to train with gas masks during your normal training.
In the Army we had to do wear them for some 12hrs....the thinking by doing so one would get used to it.

You may have missed this posted earlier, makes the same points regarding masks



What is copied is the way its displayed in the article it might be confusing for some.

.

surgical mask does not protect against “airborne” infectious agents so it will not prevent the wearer from being potentially contaminated by a virus such as the coronavirus.

A contagious patient should wear a surgical mask as soon as contagion is suspected.

In Europe, for caregivers, it is necessary to wear a respirator of at least class FFP2 or FFP3 for maximum filtration of particles and aerosols when caring for a patient who is infected or suspected of being so

In the United States, the N95 respirator filters 95% of airborne particles, and can even filter out bacteria and viruses, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

So for caregivers, it is necessary to wear a respirator of class N, R or P

http://emag.medicalexpo.com/which-masks ... ronavirus/

Interesting in that if one has it, the surgical mask can prevent one from spreading it.
Can not prevent one from receiving it. In this time the wearing of the mask may
cause others to think that one is infected with it in countries where it's not normaly
worn in the winter time.

[Giles]

Thanks Giles, that's a very good explanation about the masks. I tried in my way to explain that to people in China about the necessity of a seal and why N95 type industrial masks are much more effective than simple surgical masks, or the various fashionable things they wear in China because of air pollution, but many complained that it is too difficult to breathe when wearing them if they have a seal or require much pressure.

Staying 6 feet away from people, while a good idea, is mostly impossible to do when you have any specific purpose to go inside. The videos I posted about social distancing enforcement in Nanjing show that it can be done in some places, like restaurants, but not in others, like public transportation.

Here in Berlin we (the people!!) are doing this fairly well, apart from public transport when it starts to get too full. I avoid buses and subways at the moment. In the supermarkets just about everyone has got the message, and in the aisles and checkout queues we all do a kind of stop-go-stop-go dance and shuffle around each other, keeping the distance or only passing each other closer for a couple of seconds before we bounce off again like mutually repelling magnets. Some shops, and supermarkets with less floor space inside, only let a fixed number of people in at one time. The newcomers wait in a queue outside - widely spaced - until they are admitted to the shop. So generally speaking we're doing OK here.

Washing hands is always good, but you quickly re-contaminate yourself according to the base-level of residual, infectious or "dirty" material on you, around you, stuck to the bottle of disinfectant someone handed you, etc. However, every time you wash correctly, you reduce the amount of material on your hand's skin to minimal, and just need to worry about the fingernails. Some people love their fingernails more than their microbiology.

Very true. But as long as you don't have any open wounds on your hands, for a while it doesn't matter how much virus contamination you have on your hands as long as you don't touch your face. Until the next hand wash back in your safe space. So it really is a major part of self-protection.

..... Other personal waste disposal routines also had room for adjustment.

Ah, a fine application of euphemism/understatement.

[Michael]

Interesting in that if one has it, the surgical mask can prevent one from spreading it.
Can not prevent one from receiving it. In this time the wearing of the mask may
cause others to think that one is infected with it in countries where it's not normaly
worn in the winter time.

If you've had a few hours of microbiology swabbing around a kitchen, or one day of NBC training in the military, you get the idea of how this works, or at least your learn to follow the protocol.

[everything]

What kind of protocol are you guys following when it comes to handling mail or packages delivered to you?

We have started doing the "wait 24 hours" protocol. Put the package or mail in a certain location/container. Wait 24 hours if it's non-perishable. Recycle the cardboard. Wipe down inner packages. Etc. No idea if this time period is enough.

Viruses supposedly survive on metal longer, so I was thinking of sanitizing the mailbox once per day.

[Steve James]

Of course, it's much easier for people in NY (btw, NYC wasn't the first hotspot in NY). Queens, right now, is the epicenter with the most cases. Surprise! Where are NYs airports? Queens. Then there's the subway. Anyway, my point is that the only way to stop the spread ANYWHERE NOW would be to go to the most extreme measures.

Please, I've heard the argument about what the gov't should have done. By your logic, everywhere there is an outbreak everyone should always wear a mask. Tell that to the people in Houston. Y'all know now. Are they handing them out? It would surely stop the spread there.

Besides, the first cases were in Washington state, 3000 miles away from NY. And, don't forget, when Americans were ordered back from Europe --the world's hotspot-- they all got funneled through specific airports. There were literally thousands of people coming back from there where we know there were cases.

Afa masks, I see lots of people with masks covering their mouths but not their noses.

[windwalker]

Interesting in that if one has it, the surgical mask can prevent one from spreading it.
Can not prevent one from receiving it. In this time the wearing of the mask may
cause others to think that one is infected with it in countries where it's not normaly
worn in the winter time.

If you've had a few hours of microbiology swabbing around a kitchen, or one day of NBC training in the military, you get the idea of how this works, or at least your learn to follow the protocol.

Having trained to be an NBC NCO I'm well aware of the protocols....After attending some of the training my conclusion regarding nuclear
was that if you could see the "flash" as in "flash to bang " one was in the wrong place at the wrong time....decided adding this to my other duties was kind of waste of time.
In most units in the Army they do spend many hrs in training setting up decon stations for , equipement , personnel ect. and operations in NBC environments.



In answer to the question regarding mail and stuff....there are protocols for decontamination equipment, people ect.
Some equipment might not be possible depending on agent, ie, for example, electronics it may not really be possible to totally decon it without damaging it,,
of course with people its a little different.

tor those interested outlines some the things the military does ..

PATIENT DECONTAMINATION
STATION: PLANNING, SETUP,
AND OPERATION

https://www.cs.amedd.army.mil/borden/Fi ... 9db9d03095