Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

[bailewen]

point taken

[Bao]

"Last week, Spanish virologists announced they had found traces of the disease in samples of waste water collected in March 2019, nine months before the coronavirus disease was seen in China.
....
Italian scientists have also found evidence of coronavirus in sewage samples in Milan and Turin, in mid-December, many weeks before the first case was detected, while experts have found traces in Brazil in November."

"I think the virus was already here, here meaning everywhere. We may be seeing a dormant virus that has been activated by environmental conditions. "

Exclusive: Covid-19 may not have originated in China, Oxford University expert believes

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-may-not ... 43488.html

[Steve James]

Exclusive: Covid-19 may not have originated in China, Oxford University expert believes

If true, who do we blame? What if the virus had multiple sources? Oh well, too much time was spent on blaming someone instead of doing something.

Last night, our fearless leader said that 99% of coronavirus cases are harmless. Even if the statistics could show that to be true, damn. There's always a lag between cases and results. So, if today we are having more cases than yesterday, it means that we'll see the results two weeks from then. The virus can't disappear. The best case now is that today is the beginning of a plateau.

Well, I still say that it's safest to assume the worse. I.e., wear the mask because you think you have the virus and don't want to spread it. But, I have feeling that there'll be more lockdowns.

[roger hao]

Herd Immunity is here.

Change my mind.

[Steve James]

Herd immunity is inevitable --after everyone catches the virus.

[roger hao]

Steve -
That is a mis-conception. it occurs around 66%.
Numbers being omitted are on purpose = recovery.
Recovery is an indicator of herd immunity.

[Franklin]

"Last week, Spanish virologists announced they had found traces of the disease in samples of waste water collected in March 2019, nine months before the coronavirus disease was seen in China.
....
Italian scientists have also found evidence of coronavirus in sewage samples in Milan and Turin, in mid-December, many weeks before the first case was detected, while experts have found traces in Brazil in November."

"I think the virus was already here, here meaning everywhere. We may be seeing a dormant virus that has been activated by environmental conditions. "

Exclusive: Covid-19 may not have originated in China, Oxford University expert believes

https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-may-not ... 43488.html

maybe -- but i don't think we will ever know... for sure
there is just too much data that the Chinese covered up or sanitized...

there is strong possibility that the outbreak in china started well before December of last year...
no real evidence though -- cause they are not transparent about it...


to come to any conclusions - we would need data...
but we don't have it...
and with the absence of data...
we can not come to conclusions...

it is just speculation...


get definitive data and evidence of what was going on inside of china
for 2019 - re- the virus

then we can start to talk



Franklin

[Franklin]

WHO seems to be changing the timeline...

[LaoDan]

Herd Immunity is here.

Change my mind.

The USA is probably nowhere near herd immunity, and neither is the world. In the USA, 66% of ~333,000,000 people would be ~220,000,000 cases (assuming those who have recovered obtain immunity from re-infection, which is not absolutely certain for this virus). Even if confirmed cases are far under representative of the actual number of infections, we are still nowhere close to 220,000,000 cases in the USA. Currently there are only ~3,000,000 confirmed cases in the USA, and even if that is, say, only one in twenty of the actual numbers when including unconfirmed cases, that would still only be 60,000,000 possible cases, still well below the level that would confer heard immunity. Plus, we are still seeing increases in cases of hospitalizations (which is a measure that is not as dependent on the level of testing as is confirmed cases). If cases are still increasing, then we do not yet have herd immunity.

[windwalker]

Herd Immunity is here.

Change my mind.

Stanford University researchers have moderated their controversial estimate of how many people in Santa Clara County were infected by the COVID-19 virus by early April — but stand by their conclusion that the illness was much more widespread than anyone knew.

In a revised analysis of a startling study published last month, they now estimate that 2.8% of Santa Clara residents were previously infected by the virus but didn’t know it.

https://www.mercurynews.com/coronavirus ... knew-about

There’s a lot of pushback as to exactly where the US is in terms of infection.
A lot of information sources report most people will be asymptomatic, with the number of positive test being confirmed growing daily, seems like it would tend to support the number of people positive are far more than what has been speculated.

Seems confusing as to cases and number of tested people positive as
reported by the media.


https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/03/w ... -test.html

With the results seeming to alarm people, most are asymptomatic.
Even the reporting of hospital usage is strange as it’s not necessarily reported as virus related.
Can be misleading

[Bao]

maybe -- but i don't think we will ever know... for sure
there is just too much data that the Chinese covered up or sanitized...

What Data? What have they tried to cover up? Everybody say that they have tried to cover up things, but so far I haven’t seen any proof of that.

there is strong possibility that the outbreak in china started well before December of last year...
no real evidence though -- cause they are not transparent about it...

I don’t think so. If that was the case, there would have been a much larger outbreak including many other cities at the same time. You need to realize that At daytime, there’s one fast train leaving Wuhan every single minute. The communication and travel between cities is very intense. If the outbreak was earlier it would have been impossible that it would already have spread to many other cities.

Get definite data..
then we can start to talk

China has invited the UN to make a full investigation. They don’t have anything to hide.

WHO seems to be changing the timeline...

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_3D45fXOrI[/youtub

I don’t understand what their point is with this video. I remember exactly what was said in the news and what I read the 31st of December. It wasn’t the 3rd of January, everything was reported the 31st. Anyone can make a search on what different newspapers wrote on the 31st of December and what was reported. It’s all there.

Btw, I knew about the virus already ten days earlier. They are lousy keeping things secret, everything gets out.

[Franklin]

maybe -- but i don't think we will ever know... for sure
there is just too much data that the Chinese covered up or sanitized...

What Data? What have they tried to cover up? Everybody say that they have tried to cover up things, but so far I haven’t seen any proof of that.

there is strong possibility that the outbreak in china started well before December of last year...
no real evidence though -- cause they are not transparent about it...

I don’t think so. If that was the case, there would have been a much larger outbreak including many other cities at the same time. You need to realize that At daytime, there’s one fast train leaving Wuhan every single minute. The communication and travel between cities is very intense. If the outbreak was earlier it would have been impossible that it would already have spread to many other cities.

Get definite data..
then we can start to talk

China has invited the UN to make a full investigation. They don’t have anything to hide.

WHO seems to be changing the timeline...

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_3D45fXOrI[/youtub

I don’t understand what their point is with this video. I remember exactly what was said in the news and what I read the 31st of December. It wasn’t the 3rd of January, everything was reported the 31st. Anyone can make a search on what different newspapers wrote on the 31st of December and what was reported. It’s all there.

Btw, I knew about the virus already ten days earlier. They are lousy keeping things secret, everything gets out.

Bao I hope you are getting paid more then 50cents...

its pointless to discuss with you but here are a few points...

the main one - that can not be disputed is that we do not have data from china
and we never will
they sanitized the supposed source.
no investigation into the origins can be conducted...


but here are some other points:

there were documents showing that a military university (i think in wuhan) with some virus labs on campus - had started checking people's temperature to enter the campus - and all foreigners were barred from entry (well before the end of the year)

international participants in the wuhan military games anecdotally claim to have come down with illnesses similar in symptoms and recovery time to the wuhan virus - but so far i have not heard any follow up with antibody tests to confirm this.. (and might be too late if the new research is true- showing that antibodies do not last that long after an infection)


the official claim is that the outbreak started at the wetmarket in wuhan - with no human to human transmission at first -- but they isolated the first patients (shows there was known risk of human to human spread) and many of the patients had no direct connection with the market.. (they also destroyed all the samples and data, and sanitized the market - and did not allow any investigation into the site as the source of the outbreak)


there were some reports that showed cases of atypical influenza of unknown origin - well before December in china... (but i think that was very quickly quieted up)...


you want to talk about virus being found in Italy in march
then lets talk about how italy is one of the top destinations for Chinese tourists in the world
or that italy is the only EU country to sign on for the belt and road initiative ...
could be a factor - going both ways - in and out


if you want to talk about the WHO invited to investigate:
lets talk about the fact that the WHO international "advance team" was mostly made up of Chinese nationals
went in over 6 seeks late
never visited any sites with active infections
and could not investigate the supposed origin of the outbreak because the wetmarket had been sanitized..
only teleconferenced with active infection sites (which makes me wonder why did they even need to go in- you can teleconference from anywhere)
and produced a report with wording that sounds exactly like a CCP gov document propaganda piece...

combine that with the CCP - infiltration and take over of international organizations
to skew the status quo on many things
so that they can later claim whenever they are in dispute with others
"respect the international consensus".
lets add in there academic and research institutions - as well

we have no data from china...

how about you tell me about the cargo plane that delivered medical supplies to wuhan that can break the sound barrier...

I am going to make you earn those 50cents...


edit --
its also hard to argue that they are not covering things up
when they keep covering things up

https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/li ... 56074.html

in case it is unclear:
telling the media to only report certain things
is covering it up
or maybe we can call it controlling the narrative
or maybe we can just call it BS


Franklin

[Franklin]

if you want to argue CCP transparency...


lets look at Mark Saltzman's book Iron and Silk
about his time teaching English in china in the 80's
if i remember he has a passage about how he could not get athlete's foot medication
because athlete's foot did not officially exist in china



the same thing happened with AIDS for many years
a doctor I know in shanghai told me years ago..
its not officially recognized...
so the official numbers are super low..
but the reality is that there is massive outbreak in people of college age, and also seniors...

this link is unrelated to what my dr friend said...
but addresses some massive HIV coverup
https://www.hrw.org/news/2003/06/12/chi ... alth-cover


or the fact that they tried to cover up the SARS epidemic when that happened...


doesn't sound like a pattern now does it???


or there is this:


in the video they reference a speech in which Xi:
"called Party and government run news outlets the "publicity fronts" of the party and government"

Xi also said:
"All news media run by the party must work to speak for the Party's will and its propositions and protect the Party's authority and unity."

** hint- there are no non party or government run news outlets

doesn't much sound like transparency...


Franklin

[Bao]

if you want to argue CCP transparency...
....
lets look at Mark Saltzman's book Iron and Silk
about his time teaching English in china in the 80's
...
the same thing happened with AIDS for many years
a doctor I know in shanghai told me years ago..

I have no idea why you want to speak about the past. China has changed a lot in a very short period, more than what most people realise, and Xi is a very different leader. Deng Xiaoping and Yang Zemin let capitalism run free and they only aimed for personal gain. The USA was on good terms with China back then as the leaders before Xi let the US use resources and take advantage of China in many different ways.

in the video they reference a speech in which Xi:
"called Party and government run news outlets the "publicity fronts" of the party and government"

Xi also said:
"All news media run by the party must work to speak for the Party's will and its propositions and protect the Party's authority and unity."

** hint- there are no non party or government run news outlets

doesn't much sound like transparency...

If there is something that worries me, it's the greater control of media and how it's run. In the time of Hu Jintao, just 15 years ago, China was probably more open than ever before. He had some good ideas and did things to not let capitalism totally get out of hand. But still, Yang Zemin was running the show behind the curtains so Hu could not do much at all. But now it's different. Though Yang Zemin chose Xi, what Xi has done is that he has completely cut off Yang's control. Xi is heading for socialism, something that angers the US. National control over important industry means that the US can not use it as they want any longer. Now China is closing down and has become a little bit more isolated. What they do now is all about fuelling nationalism. People has even been advised to not celebrate Christmas and chain stores stopped selling Christmas decorations. It has definitely gone too far and has turned into something that can only be described as ridiculous.

[Steve James]

I don't know about China, but it isn't looking better in the US.