Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby windwalker on Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:58 am


This seems very clear, unless someone has reading comprehension difficulties.



Also noted the same sentence but didn’t post it feeling it was a good check for those who did read through the article.
Unfortunately for some they failed to see the implications maybe they should re-read it.


I still do not see how this study would significantly change the expected value of ~30% showing symptoms before herd immunity is achieved, as extrapolated from the H1N1 pandemic of 1918-1919.


Expected, there’s always hope.


What they presented was another way of looking at it offering a different approach achieving the same objectives.

There are others in the field of epidemiology, agreeing with it in their own studies.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:49 am

To determine if herd immunity was reached, one would have to test a lot more people than we have.
Question. How many people have been tested once? If it was more than 30 days ago, it doesn't count.

Btw, herd immunity doesn't mean that anyone is immune --unless they've been infected. Secondly, we're in a pandemic. It might be useless to think of herd immunity on anything but a global scale, as long as there is global travel and intercourse.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby windwalker on Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:10 am

Some of the points of the study

No realistic model will depict human populations as homogeneous; there are many heterogeneities in human societies that will influence virus transmission.

Here, we use a model to illustrate how population heterogeneity can cause substantial heterogeneity among the people infected during the course of an infectious disease outbreak, with consequent impact on the herd immunity level and the performance of exit policies aimed at minimizing the risk of future infection spikes.




Our simple model shows how the disease-induced herd immunity level may be substantially lower than the classical herd immunity level derived from mathematical models assuming homogeneous immunization.

Our application to COVID-19 indicates a reduction of herd immunity from 60% under homogeneous immunization down to 43% (assuming R0 = 2.5) in a structured population, but this should be interpreted as an illustration rather than as an exact value or even a best estimate. Future efforts need to be made to quantify more precisely the size of this effect.


These activity levels and social structures are country or region specific and should be modeled as such. Further, spatial heterogeneity arises, with rural areas having lower contact rates than metropolitan regions.

It seems reasonable to assume that most such additional heterogeneities will have the effect of reducing the disease-induced immunity level hD even further. This is because in high-contact environments such as metropolitan regions, large households, and large workplaces, there will be a higher infected fraction and immunity will be concentrated even more among highly active and connected individuals.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6505/846

On Monday top international epidemiologists Dr. Martin Kulldorff from Harvard, Dr. Sunetra Gupta from Oxford and Dr. Jayanta Bhattacharya from Stanford joined Laura Ingraham on The Ingraham Angle to announce their latest initiative to reopen society and resume life in the West for those who are not vulnerable to the coronavirus.

Said Kulldorff told Laura, “Most of my colleagues in infectious disease are in favor of risk-based strategy or an age-based strategy where we protect the elderly or other high risk groups while the younger resume life more or less normally.”

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/1 ... essionals/

seems to align with the study presented.
A good thing no?
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby windwalker on Wed Oct 07, 2020 11:18 am

Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health.

The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden.

Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.

Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.

Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
;)
As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e. the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection.

Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside.

A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals.



Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.

Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.


https://gbdeclaration.org/

among others
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby roger hao on Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:04 pm

Regeneron - REGN-COV-19

It will be a disappointment to vaccine covidiots.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Trick on Wed Oct 07, 2020 8:51 pm

If all Covid believers get the needle would there then be any need for covidiots to have it too ?
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby LaoDan on Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:02 am

I am SO tired of people looking for rationalizations to do whatever they already want to do.

I could also play that game and promote an agenda rather than letting the study speak for itself (and the scientists in the field). For example, the study linked to by WW found that, of the two arbitrary variables that they introduced, variable activity level parameters was more significant in reducing the modeled level of herd immunity before all mitigation measures could be lifted without getting rebound (or second wave...) viral spread, than was dividing the population into different age groups. So, let’s look at the data generated for activity levels.

The researchers arbitrarily assigned 50% of the population to a “normal” level of activity (interactions with others in the population with the possibility of spreading the virus to those that they come into contact with, assigning R values of 2.5 as well as 2.0 and 3.0; but the focus seems to be primarily on R=2.5, so that is also what my example will look at) and 25% set at ½ the normal activity level and 25% at double the normal activity level.

I can conclude from the results that the lower than normal activity level population (25%) is more important than the higher activity population (25%) in reducing the necessary herd immunity level prior to fully reopening society safely. This means that the more people that can be convinced to reduce their activity levels during viral spread, the quicker that society could be safely reopened. This applies even when an equal number of idiots resist the restrictions on activity levels and are more active than the normal group.

Therefore, this study could be used to argue that people should be strongly encouraged to reduce their activity levels and reduce the spread of the virus, even when other people in the population just will not do so and insist on maintaining their elevated activity levels.

People should become less active in order to reduce the level of spread of the virus enough to safely reopen society, despite others who refuse to do so.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby LaoDan on Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:52 am

We know, from experiences in other countries, that reducing the activity levels in a population reduces the spread of the virus, and at some point this allows for quicker reopening of the society without having a significant rebound of viral transmission within that population. We know, from the lax approach taken by the leaders of the USA, that if the activity levels are not reduced enough prior to easing restrictions, one will see the viral spread persist.

It is not complicated. The more that reduced activity levels reduce the spread of the virus, the sooner a society can safely reopen. Failure to reduce viral spread sufficiently prior to reopening just means that the virus continues to spread within the population – it drags out the pandemic and prolongs the need for some level of restrictions prior to being able to fully reopen.

This seems pretty simple to me, and is consistent with the information presented in the study that WW linked to.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:55 am

The value of reduced activity and lockdowns/quarantines etcetera has been questioned from the beginning. The whole issue of achieving herd immunity is about what and how much we should do. There's never been a consistent national initiative, and it's often a blame the state game. At any rate, I don't think it's rational to assume that the situation would be better if there had been no interventions or lockdowns. That's not the argument the administration uses when it comes to travel bans. If allowing the virus to spread is considered a viable solution, ... that's covidiocy imo.

Understandably, more than half the people polled said they wouldn't take a new vaccine that was rushed through. Ironically, that's how we usually achieve "herd immunity." But, the level of distrust is such that there are people who won't take the vaccine, won't take the treatment, and won't wear a mask. The only solution is personal safety, and if one's really thoughtful, caring about others.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby windwalker on Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:28 am

It's not complicated
Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health.

The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden.

Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice.

Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.

Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza.
;)

https://gbdeclaration.org/

Other considerations

“The Wisconsin Supreme Court’s decision should be seen as a victory for the principle that even in a crisis, the rulemakers must follow the rules.

Regardless of how anyone feels about the orders themselves, if the governor and Health Secretary had worked with the legislature as they’re required to—even during crises—they could have crafted a constitutional law that the State Supreme Court likely would have upheld.”


“Pennsylvania Federal Court in Butler County v. Wolf reviewed the indefinite “emergency” restrictions imposed by the executive branch of Pennsylvania government, declaring limitations on gathering size, “stay-at-home orders,” and mandatory business closures unconstitutional.

Refusing to accept the alleged need for a “new normal,”

the Court stated that an “independent judiciary [is needed] to serve as a check on the exercise of emergency government power.”

https://www.aier.org/article/the-consti ... wn-orders/

The same people calling for a national mandate, mandated by the president are also the same ones talking
about the presidency used as a dictatorship , apparently not understanding what federalism is.

In some cases not the most efficient way to address a national emergency among 50 states.
It does allow for each state to address it according to its own circumstances.

for example

Contact tracers in New York City reportedly cannot ask anyone who has tested positive for COVID-19 whether they have attended any recent protests.


In recent weeks, both Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov. Andrew Cuomo have worried publicly that the widespread demonstrations in response to the death of George Floyd would transmit the coronavirus. But the hundreds of contact tracers working for the city have been instructed not to ask about attendance at a demonstration, according to the City.

Avery Cohen, a spokeswoman for de Blasio, confirmed the policy in an email to the City. "No person will be asked proactively if they attended a protest," she wrote.


People understanding measures put in place don't make sense, tend to question them.

This virus isn't going away.
At some point it will be looked at in the same way as influenzas that can kill up to 60k
people will know how to deal with it, asses the risk and protect themselves and those they know.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby LaoDan on Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:57 am

Is your post intended to be an example of coherent understanding?

Children’s being less susceptible does not change the findings that lower activity levels lowers the infections across all age groups as shown in Table 2 from the study that you linked to (i.e., for ages 0-5 years, high activity = 53.9% whereas average activity = 32.1% and low activity = 17.6%; for those 6-12 years old, high = 69.7%, average = 44.9% and low = 25.8%, etc.). Is this too complicated for you?

The “other considerations” are just quotes from biased sources pushing an agenda, and they are not addressing population activity levels as presented in the research study that you linked to.

The study indicates that reducing activity levels will allow societies to safely reopen sooner. Arguing that we should relax restrictions or to reopen before we have sufficiently reduced the viral spread just delays the time frame for safe reopening of societies; it just lets the effects of the pandemic linger and drags out the time frame for safely reopening.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:13 pm

It's clear that reducing activity worked for places like NZ, East Asian countries, etc.

Not sure how that could be in any way misunderstood or disputed except for by people who have a vested interest in doing the opposite (for example if I own a small business that needs to open). But then there's an argument that they will benefit more if we can reduce transmission faster/sooner. Then there are groups who have some kind of bizarre ideological argument based on who knows what (not sure they themselves understand how much they don't understand). Or there are groups of young people who feel invincible (totally get this as we all were that way).
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby windwalker on Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:07 pm

everything wrote:It's clear that reducing activity worked for places like NZ, East Asian countries, etc.




yep very clear ;) except when its not

One economy that managed to avoid a lockdown, and which has been functioning better than many others, is Taiwan's. The island appears to have emerged from the crisis relatively unscathed. It managed to keep its 11 million-strong labor force working and its economy running.


Of course the way their gov is set up along with an early warning , coupled with a recent past history
of dealing with other virus had a lot to do with it...

For those worried, should be no problem for them to self quarantine, take what ever measures they feel
needed for themselves. :)


seems like some have problems with

Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.

Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.


and others in the field.

Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold.

Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home.

Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.



https://gbdeclaration.org/

Yep very clear, also reasonable
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby LaoDan on Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:41 pm

windwalker wrote:
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold.

Note that we CANNOT at present predict those who are not vulnerable to the coronavirus, only which groups are more susceptible. Big difference! Many individuals who are thought to be at a lower risk level still DIE from this disease; it is not just people in certain demographics (like the elderly). But perhaps we SHOULD quarantine males and allow females to carry on their lives normally since females are less susceptible than males?
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Thu Oct 08, 2020 2:48 pm

we already talked about how the school thing doesn't make sense in any case.

let's say young people are at 0 risk, but teachers/staff are at high risk. it doesn't make any sense to conclude returning to school is low risk.
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