Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

[everything]

I still don't think that's a valid comparison (YTD) because covid has come on suddenly and is accelerating.

So to take a snapshot summary stat doesn't include the faster rate of change of one vs. the other. It doesn't seem fair.

I can/will run these questions by some colleagues later. From a psychology point of view, I get why individuals want to form some reference. I'd love to feel safer. Just from a math pov, I think we are probably not making correct comparisons. I have a stats friend who seems to also have flawed logic so "smart" people are getting it wrong as well. This is why science needs peer review and "fake news" from the left or right is too low-level to be helpful for the most part.

Ah, yeah, I forgot we have a few people with views opposite of mine, but at least on rsf, we seem to "argue" pretty well (vs. on television or on twitter, etc.).

[LaoDan]

Statisticians do have methods to project data beyond what is currently known, but that is beyond my abilities. As you correctly point out, this disease is so new that projections could be full of errors. Minimizing this error would probably be extremely difficult.

For policy makers, one needs some sort of objective data (if one is capable of understanding it) from which to make comparisons so that one is not just totally guessing or making policy based on gut feelings or wishful thinking. One uses the best data that is currently available.

One may want to look at the different approaches taken during the pandemic, e.g., the USA (late response, early reopening) vs. other approaches. This could give indications that, for example, contact tracing works best when the level of new cases has been brought to under a certain % of the population. Even just looking at USA data, there are various approaches that different jurisdictions (states, cities, etc.) took, and one can get some indication if tightening or loosening restrictions will be handled satisfactorily by that jurisdiction’s health care system, or if it is likely to be overwhelmed, etc. For all of this, one need some type of normalized data in order to make valid comparisons. There is still likely to be much uncertainty, but I think that it is better than going without (or ignoring what is available).

[everything]

It seems like decision makers are trying hard.

I’m worried people aren’t able to comply, or it’s hurting their livelihood etc.

I don’t know because I WFH so am minimizing risk.

Not sure about kids and teachers. That is worrying.

[Steve James]

Not sure about kids and teachers. That is worrying.

Elderly teachers may be retiring sooner than expected. Children may not usually get as ill as adults do, but children don't run any facilities. Children will have to travel to get to school, and they are still carriers.

The key here is the preparation. If people are still fighting over masks, it's unlikely that parents will consider the situation safe enough. Personally, I think that communities should simply have a plan for schools that can't open. Grand pronouncements won't mean much as soon as a single child tests positive. They'll have to let all the parents know, probably have to shut down the school as if it had mold. And, holding back funds from schools that don't open is just stoopid. Some communities may be doing well; others not.

Schools are often more about providing day care than providing education. If the parents are sick, who takes care of the children then? So, they need to work on providing child care, including lunch. Maybe they can't have classes of 45 students. Afa colleges, I'll bet that lots of students will argue that they shouldn't pay full price for online courses. There should be some basic educational requirements and a standardized nationwide testing system. Education should be free. And, finally, health care. If the treatment, vaccine, booster, is expensive, it'll ruin many families. So, health care needs to be free. I know. I know.

[Trick]

Windwalker has shown in the past that he does not understand statistics, and now it appears that his reading comprehension is also subpar. .

Although his views not always go along with mine I do appreciate WW postings here....He’s kind of outside the sandbox, I like that spirit.

Calling someone as being subpar is rude....

Elitist !

[Trick]

Hope at the end of the year each country do reliable comparance of the number of total deaths(all causes included) with previous years of total number deaths...then we can see if it was a good or a bad year death toll wize

[Trick]

. A woman surnamed Chen, 29, made up information about one confirmed case in Daxing district and spread it through social media on July 2, just because she was bored during her home quarantine.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202007/0 ... 5824e.html hope the staticians dont include this kind and perhaps other kind of fake covid19 confirmed reports

[Steve James]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uy7pbJ2jvMo

[everything]

The kids/teachers dynamic isn't super well thought out yet.

If you stagger kids (say, in 3 groups, each group going every 3 weeks in person), that maybe is great for minimizing risk among each group of kids (vs. everyone is there at the same time), but teachers and staff (presumably at greater risk due to being adults or oder adults) are still exposed to ALL those kids.

But I'm not sure there's any better system. Harvard and Princeton have some breakdown like 1st and 3rd year students on campus in fall, the rest in spring.

Ultimately, with all the news reports of idiots with no masks or distancing (at any kind of protest of any stripe), I just don't trust "the people" to comply. That they probably don't follow the data and conclusions is a sub-bullet, but it's a possible reason why they don't do the right thing. In addition to the whole free-dumb problem. Basically, ignorance is the biggest underlying issue.

[LaoDan]

Calling someone as being subpar is rude....

Elitist !

I was giving my honest evaluation based on information/evidence that WW himself provided (how is that being elitist?). For example:

COVID rarely kills children, even compared with influenza, against which many children are already vaccinated.

Our data show that for mortality COVID-19 is similar to flu, or less severe, in children whilst being the opposite in adults.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 0620302092

For an example of his lack of understanding of statistics, one can search out his comments on press bias (“fake news”), etc.

In both cases I waited until he posted what was, to me, clear evidence to the truth of my evaluations.

As he is fond of saying (paraphrasing), others may come to different conclusions.

Now I HAVE purposely mischaracterized him as a “’Red Guard’ fanatic for Trump” but that was in context of a post that he made that linked to comments on the “Cultural Revolution” and the (unspecified) parallels that he saw. In that case I responded with the parallels that I saw between the authoritarian tactics used by both Mao and Trump, as well as the fanaticism of the Red Guard and Trump’s supporters, respectively. Since he responded by calling me “comrade” I think that, in context, my response was appropriate.

[Steve James]

Ok, so, why is it getting so much worse? Why is it happening this year? Or, is it bad yet?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzWHJASO4kk


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9m7cS0QIh0

[everything]

the stories are saying if you have antibodies for covid, they are gone after a few weeks.

so no such thing as herd immunity from the "everybody will get it" line of thinking.

[everything]

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07- ... ibody.html

some antibody good news, it seems

[Steve James]

Yeah, the nightmare scenario is that a person who gets it will either survive or not but, if he survives, he can get it again. And, it could be worse. I.e., not immunity, but less immunity. You keep getting it until it gets you. It is no longer a pandemic; it is endemic.

That's the nightmare. But, it'd still be possible to wipe out the disease, but it ain't gonna happen.

[Ian C. Kuzushi]

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-scientists-key-element-strong-antibody.html

some antibody good news, it seems

No, the opposite. Don't count on herd immunity. There is no reason to think it will happen.

Debate over whether herd immunity will be our salvation to the escalating Covid crisis was recently fueled by two new reports.
The first was the release of a new nationwide study from Spain, a former Covid hotspot, which suggested that too many lives would be lost while waiting to achieve the approximate 60% infection rate needed for herd immunity, whereby so many people become immune to the disease that it is effectively stamped out.

The second was a report from New York, which suggested that in some communities herd immunity may have already been achieved, with one health care clinic reporting that slightly more than 68% of Covid tests taken had come back positive.
But we waste critical time with this pointless discussion, because the facts are already quite clear: herd immunity will likely never be achieved for Covid-19 or any other coronavirus. We know this thanks to new research on the development and decline of Covid antibodies and from a wealth of epidemiological evidence on coronaviruses as a whole.

While SARS and MERS are the coronaviruses that grab the headlines, there are four other mostly unknown coronaviruses that are much more common: 229E, HKU1, NL63 and OC43. What we know from 60 years of research into these viruses is that they come back year after year and reinfect the same people -- over and over again.

The article by a big wig in the world of virology continues in detail:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/13/opinions ... index.html