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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:01 pm
by Steve James

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:20 pm
by Peacedog
I have an associate whose job it is to essentially fact check biomedical research for investment purposes.

I asked him about Covid related projects and he said, "in the better casinos, the win/lose split between the house and the gamblers is 51%/49%. You are about a thousand times more likely to be on the losing side with biomedical startups."

He basically made the point that the reason why small successful firms all get bought out by majors at incredible markups is that the odds of pulling off the development of a successful intervention of any kind are so low that they virtually count as black swan events every time they happen.

So yeah, any investment is pretty much guaranteed to fail. Only the enormous payday at the end for the rare successful ones make any of the research happen at all. To even equate it with gambling is a tremendous understatement.

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:55 pm
by everything
so it's basically like start-up economics. you chase 100 would-be FBs (as the VC)

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:05 pm
by roger hao
What is the word on ivermectin?

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:14 am
by Ian C. Kuzushi
So yeah, any investment is pretty much guaranteed to fail. Only the enormous payday at the end for the rare successful ones make any of the research happen at all. To even equate it with gambling is a tremendous understatement.


Sounds like a great reason not to leave it in the hand of private industry. Also, to equate it with gambling is just bizzare.

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:17 am
by meeks

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:01 am
by everything
"certified young person"

"what are you 26?"

"I didn't correct him"

how DOES Paul Rudd look so young still?

anyway, good PSA. "I shouldn't have to make it entertaining. It's science. UGH"

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:48 am
by Peacedog
Roughly 80-85% of all medical innovation world wide year to year happens in the US.

It happens here precisely because people can make money at.

It does not help that government boards made up of experts do a very poor job a picking winners, especially with something as complicated as medicine.

Government control of medicine in most countries is why they are free riders on the US system for virtually all development of any kind.

As the SAS motto goes, "Who Dares Wins."

It is true in military operations, it's true in medicine and it's true in anything that matters.

As for ivermectin, it is an interesting drug.

The wiki page is here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermecti ... festations.

Primarily it is used to treat parasitic infections, but it also a has a variety of other effects involving viral infections (hence the Covid-19 interest). It's an interesting drug that I've personally used on a few occasions with great success. Side effects are few and it is well tolerated.

An off label use of a drug for treating active Covid infections is the most likely short term solution we are going to find. Ivermectin is well worth researching due to its multiple possible applications. Now would I recommend its use? I doubt it would cause any problems, but it is simply unclear if this will be a part of a likely treatment regime or not.

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:31 pm
by roger hao
Peacedog -
Right - I found this also.
It is prescribed in Brazil to be taken if you are in contact with Covid victim.
Called a miracle drug in Japan? - As important as penicillin.

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:48 pm
by Peacedog
A couple of different analyses seem to indicate that the various lockdowns essentially made no difference. The raw data isn’t presented with the main article, so I’d want to look at that at some point.

A reasoning man would argue that lockdowns would at least slow down the rate of transmission, but as I read the article it didn’t even seem to support even that finding.

Food for thought.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-failed ... 1599000890

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 9:26 pm
by everything
Seems flawed in study or in conclusions.

Guess they ignore NZ, Taiwan, etc.

I don’t subscribe so didn’t read it all, though.
/ better approx answer to right q than exact answer to wrong q which can be made precise /

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:22 am
by Steve James
It can be argued that lockdowns didn't slow down the transmission, but I don't see how that could be quantified. It can also be argued that nothing could have prevented us reaching 200K deaths. Otoh, it could be argued that lockdowns must be enacted sooner in order to be effective.

Denying the effectiveness of lockdowns is useless as an argument unless there's an acceptable alternative. Unfortunately, there are places where the number of cases is rising; but, thankfully, treatments have improved. However, the UK and parts of Europe are reinstituting "lockdowns" and restrictions. Though, US citizens are already "locked out" of most the world.

I just heard that our quick action in the beginning has saved millions of lives, and that even with all our lockdowns, we've done better than the rest of the world. At least everyone agrees that the virus isn't a hoax, and that denial did not slow the spread or even prevent panic. Sure. They can piss in your face and call it rain, too. If it tastes sweet, drink it up.

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:28 am
by everything
Steve James wrote:

Denying the effectiveness of lockdowns is useless as an argument unless there's an acceptable alternative.


well at one point, the counter argument was get "herd immunity", keep at-risk populations at home. but that argument is starting to appear like it cannot work, either.

meanwhile, it seems we are all very back to normal behavior except wearing a mask and standing farther apart. going to the grocery store, etc., it's like this. no way i'm going to sit in a restaurant indoors for a long time, but at the starbucks, a few people sit there more than 6 feet apart (most tables roped off).

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:50 am
by Peacedog
Here’s an article on the geographic distribution of Covid by county in the US.

Apparently a handful of counties account for the vast majority of deaths.

https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/09/22/ ... 19-deaths/

Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:11 am
by Steve James
Well, yes, and those are probably the most densely populated counties. Most of the cases in the US have occurred in the cities with the densest populations, but that's to be expected.

What's not expected is that the US has as many deaths as it does, compared to Canada or Mexico. Canada has recorded fewer cases than the number of US deaths. The geographical distribution of the population might have something to do with it. But, I'd bet that Canada's 9K deaths are probably in the largest cities. I'd put $10 on that any day.