Conclusions It was predicted in March 2020 that in response to covid-19 a broad lockdown, as opposed to a focus on shielding the most vulnerable members of society, would reduce immediate demand for ICU beds at the cost of more deaths long term.
The optimal strategy for saving lives in a covid-19 epidemic is different from that anticipated for an influenza epidemic with a different mortality age profile.
Table 1 and table 3 present the full simulation numbers, which are essentially the same as those presented in table A1 in Report 9. Table 3 also illustrates the counterintuitive result that adding school closures to a scenario with case isolation, household quarantine, and social distancing in people older than 70 years would increase the total number of deaths across the full simulation. Moreover,
it shows that social distancing in those over 70 would be more effective than general social distancing.
Stronger interventions, however, are associated with suppression of the infection such that a second wave is observed once the interventions are lifted.
For example, adding place closures to case isolation, household quarantine, and social distancing of over 70s substantially suppresses the infection during the intervention period compared with the same scenario without place closures.
However, this suppression then leads to a second wave with a higher peak demand for ICU beds than during the intervention period, and total numbers of deaths that exceed those of the same scenario without place closures.
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https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588The second wave predicted experienced by many counties with the most stringent lockdowns.
The report findings echo what is called Focused Protection out lined in the "Barrington Declaration"
Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold.
Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.
https://gbdeclaration.org/
Posted: Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:15 am
. .....if i remember right.....