Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby roger hao on Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:03 pm

Hi Everything -

Of course - just please stop with the covidiot BS. We are all in this together.
I bet I could audit a non-covidiot and come up with a list of violations that
would have brought on an infection.
A big one - which you seem to be obsessed with - masks.
I see them loosely worn -I see inferior masks - I see touching of the mask after use
and then wiping of the nose.
And I have to tell you - I am actually probably a bigger germ - o - phobe
than you. I only use KN95 mask. When I go to ATM - for example - I use only
thumb and fore finger - I disinfect those then I disinfect the money - then I dis-
infect the ATM card. I make a clean break after going in the grocery store.
Totally disinfecting the key fob - the door handle etc etc.
At first I wiped down all the packages but I stopped that. I can go on.
It is like MA - develop correct technique then speed it up and ingrain it.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Mon Oct 19, 2020 6:28 pm

damn, dude, you are definitely FAR more safe in your practices than I am. I'm not lecturing YOU. I'm kind of just stunned by a bunch of seemingly bad decisions made en masse. I'm not going to "stop with the covidiot BS" mainly because it doesn't seem like BS to me. honestly, I think people are making the far opposite non-germophobe kind of decisions, and it seems ... welll ... idiotic to me. The guy I posted about seems like an intelligent dude who made a bad decision, and now deeply regrets it. Maybe he doesn't think he's an idiot. Smart people make really stupid decisions all the time, including me and all of us here, I'm sure. Maybe we could say we all have experienced "denial" about this or that, and so people aren't idiots. I really have no idea. It could just be my knee jerk reaction to think people are stupid, yeah, that's true.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Trick on Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:40 pm

everything wrote:
Look I'm not saying you guys are idiots, but it's not very clear at times on the internet if people can follow data or logic or what.

I think we follow mostly to the logic of our immediate surroundings. If people around you gets hospitalized or even dying in masses, then that’s what you are building your logic upon?.....Just building ones logic upon what one read from papers, statistics, diagrams, math calculations done by people who read the paper, statistics and diagrams, wont just do for me.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Trick on Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:08 am

roger hao wrote:Hi Everything -

Of course - just please stop with the covidiot BS. We are all in this together.
I bet I could audit a non-covidiot and come up with a list of violations that
would have brought on an infection.
A big one - which you seem to be obsessed with - masks.
I see them loosely worn -I see inferior masks - I see touching of the mask after use
and then wiping of the nose.
And I have to tell you - I am actually probably a bigger germ - o - phobe
than you. I only use KN95 mask. When I go to ATM - for example - I use only
thumb and fore finger - I disinfect those then I disinfect the money - then I dis-
infect the ATM card. I make a clean break after going in the grocery store.
Totally disinfecting the key fob - the door handle etc etc.
At first I wiped down all the packages but I stopped that. I can go on.
It is like MA - develop correct technique then speed it up and ingrain it.
For many many years I’ve been precariously pinning the ATM code or the code to the gate at home or pushing the elevator buttons using only my pointy finger middle knuckle, same knuckle if need push open a door(if it’s heavy use the palm heel), pinky finger use for pull open doors, has left me with a strong pointy finger middle knuckle as well palm heel and pinky finger and probably helped to keep me in fairly good health....I believe the real covidiots were around before Covid 19.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby LaoDan on Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:38 am

Trick wrote:I think we follow mostly to the logic of our immediate surroundings.

This seems very true. There is also an optimism bias in human psychology that influences our decisions, e.g., it has been reported that 9 out of 10 drivers rate themselves as being above average drivers. This optimism bias is especially prevalent in the young, but seems to hold true throughout life. So more people think that they are not susceptible to the virus, and will not suffer any ill effects even if they do happen to catch it, than are probably actually vulnerable – thus carelessness and the lack of concern is probably higher than it should be (although this is also influenced by what leaders and authorities are stressing, and how the peers of any individual react to those messages, so we see differences among different populations).
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby roger hao on Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:49 am

Trick - yes - please disinfect that knuckle

Also when needed to open a glass door with the tube type handle -
I use - again - thumb and fore finger at the lowest point that is horizontal
where fewer people grab. Then I foot sweep to fully open.

And I never touch things in public toilet -
Use foot to flush
Use paper towel to open faucet and open door -then foot sweep to hold
while tossing paper towel to trash.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Tue Oct 20, 2020 8:45 am

I could definitely be a better germophobe, lol. Going to the gas station and stuff like that. I don't carry sanitizer, etc. Somebody else could easily call me a covidiot, lol, but oh well.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:35 am

yeah there are many assumptions that could be flawed, but daily death rates seem flat or declining in recent weeks/months:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ng-us.html
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Trick on Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:10 pm

roger hao wrote:Trick - yes - please disinfect that knuckle

Also when needed to open a glass door with the tube type handle -
I use - again - thumb and fore finger at the lowest point that is horizontal
where fewer people grab. Then I foot sweep to fully open.

And I never touch things in public toilet -
Use foot to flush
Use paper towel to open faucet and open door -then foot sweep to hold
while tossing paper towel to trash.

Yes of course, the foot sweep, it’s so integrated in my system I did not even think about it..reflexive...
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:24 am

US CDC is reporting 300k "excess deaths" in the period of beginning of February to end of September. They are comparing the rates from the previous (5 I believe) years vs. the same period this year. It cannot be directly linked to COVID but gives another way to estimate what could be the related counts (Since there are under/over counting issues in the direct counts).

The largest portion of the excess deaths occurred among people aged 75 to 84. That groups saw about 95,000 deaths, or 21.5% more than in a normal year. But the biggest relative increase, of 26.5%, was in people aged 25 to 44. Deaths among under-25s dropped slightly.
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... jobs-covid)
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:45 am

A "flat" death rate means that the number isn't rising. It'd be great if the number were decreasing. There could still be 200K more deaths at this rate by February.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:14 am

unfortunately that looks feasible to likely.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby windwalker on Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:20 am

everything wrote:US CDC is reporting 300k "excess deaths" in the period of beginning of February to end of September. They are comparing the rates from the previous (5 I believe) years vs. the same period this year. It cannot be directly linked to COVID but gives another way to estimate what could be the related counts (Since there are under/over counting issues in the direct counts).

The largest portion of the excess deaths occurred among people aged 75 to 84. That groups saw about 95,000 deaths, or 21.5% more than in a normal year. But the biggest relative increase, of 26.5%, was in people aged 25 to 44. Deaths among under-25s dropped slightly.
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... jobs-covid)



Excess deaths?

Considering everybody eventually dies what is the correct number
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:41 am

Considering everybody eventually dies what is the correct number


What is ‘excess mortality’?

Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and public health that refers to the number of deaths from all causes during a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under ‘normal’ conditions.1 In this case, we’re interested in how deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compare to the average number of deaths over the same period in previous years.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:07 pm

there's a general technique in non-hard-science data analysis to look at the "normal" trend in time vs. what's happening during/after some kind of occurrence when you cannot do other analysis techniques. not sure it's necessarily more accurate than what they have with the direct counts, but there are counting issues with the direct counts (both overstating and understating kinds of errors) that we talked about before. theoretically, there could be other reasons for the "excess". but it doesn't seem so likely.
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