Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Peacedog on Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:47 am

Also keep in mind that the medical system is now beginning to see a variety of additional deaths from medical treatments that were delayed due to limited access to medicine caused by the various Coronavirus schemes being implemented.

The numbers on these are pretty random due to the differing nature of restrictions implemented nationwide.

However, some overall numbers people need to understand involving deaths per annum in the US (according to CDC):
1. Heart attack: 650,000
2. Cancer: 600,000
3. Medical mistakes: 250,000 - 500,000. The number on this category varies so widely as no set standard for this exists and as a result the studies looking into this are quite varied. It can include deaths occurring during surgery, misapplication of medication, etc. It is not included in CDC data as the final cause of death would fall into a specific category or is indeterminate. In the current climate, you could reasonable add the deaths caused by delayed treatment and procedures into this category as well.
4. Covid-19: probably 250-300k by the end of the year. Again is this not completely set in stone due to issues with misapplication of the Covid-19 as the cause of death to someone who died who was merely Covid-19 positive (i.e. a car accident victim who died being counted in Covid-19 deaths as they were Covid-19 positive in their autopsy). Some sources indicate a misapplication rate of 20% to Covid-19 deaths.

Other leading causes are:
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

So, all of the efforts in place to control the disease need to be looked at through this lens as well. While a novel addition to the list Covid-19 is far from the leading killer and we are progressively getting better at treating it as well. Also keep in mind these numbers only account for positive identification of the cause of death. If the cause is indeterminate, it is not captured in these numbers.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths ... 2080%2C058.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Trick on Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:00 am

everything wrote:US CDC is reporting 300k "excess deaths" in the period of beginning of February to end of September. They are comparing the rates from the previous (5 I believe) years vs. the same period this year. It cannot be directly linked to COVID but gives another way to estimate what could be the related counts (Since there are under/over counting issues in the direct counts).

The largest portion of the excess deaths occurred among people aged 75 to 84. That groups saw about 95,000 deaths, or 21.5% more than in a normal year. But the biggest relative increase, of 26.5%, was in people aged 25 to 44. Deaths among under-25s dropped slightly.
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... jobs-covid)

US CDC reporting , But you link to The Guardian reporting !?......
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby windwalker on Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:28 am

Trick wrote:
everything wrote:US CDC is reporting 300k "excess deaths" in the period of beginning of February to end of September. They are comparing the rates from the previous (5 I believe) years vs. the same period this year. It cannot be directly linked to COVID but gives another way to estimate what could be the related counts (Since there are under/over counting issues in the direct counts).

The largest portion of the excess deaths occurred among people aged 75 to 84. That groups saw about 95,000 deaths, or 21.5% more than in a normal year. But the biggest relative increase, of 26.5%, was in people aged 25 to 44. Deaths among under-25s dropped slightly.
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... jobs-covid)

US CDC reporting , But you link to The Guardian reporting !?......


Excess deaths, kinda strange,

On the other hand,

More than 67,300 Americans died from drug-involved overdose in 2018, including illicit drugs and prescription opioids. The figure above is a bar and line graph showing the total number of U.S. drug overdose deaths involving any illicit or prescription opioid drug from 1999 to 2018. Drug overdose deaths rose from 38,329 in 2010 to 70,237 in 2017. :o; followed by a significant decrease in 2018 to 67,367


wonder if this was listed as "excess" or expected ? :-\

People die from a number of things, the virus being one of them.

If it happens to be the virus , should be no problem as they’ve reached an eventuality that all face.
The most one can hope for, sometimes referred to as a "good death". ie a good transition ending ones time here.

Those living in fear of this,,,maybe they should find something that helps them to remove the fear and live life.
Meditative practices, religion or even martial art, depending on focus.

For some the training of whats called "martial arts" helps to prepare one for this eventuality


So, all of the efforts in place to control the disease need to be looked at through this lens as well. While a novel addition to the list Covid-19 is far from the leading killer and we are progressively getting better at treating it as well. Also keep in mind these numbers only account for positive identification of the cause of death. If the cause is indeterminate, it is not captured in these numbers.


Exactly ;)
Last edited by windwalker on Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:45 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:27 am

Image

For all 50 states plus D.C., this chart plots the percentage of state residents who say they wear a mask in public all or most of the time (on the horizontal axis) and the percentage who say they know someone in their community with virus symptoms (on the vertical axis).


https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... art-masks/?

standard nerdy stats disclaimers
the CovidCast team partnered with Facebook, which is used by 70 percent of U.S. adults and has the ability to survey tens of thousands of them every day at relatively low cost. While the resulting state-level samples aren’t perfect representations of the general population, the researchers weight the responses using Census Bureau demographic data to ensure they’re a good approximation.

“If Facebook’s users are different from the U.S. population generally in a way that the survey weighting process doesn’t account for, then our estimates could be biased,” cautioned Alex Reinhart, a Carnegie Mellon professor of statistics and data science who works on CovidCast and wrote a book on statistical methods. “But if that bias doesn’t change much over time, then we can still use the survey to detect trends and changes.”

He also cautioned that the old saw of “correlation doesn’t equal causation” applies here as well.

“There could be other explanations for the correlation,” he said. “For example, states that had worse outbreaks earlier in the pandemic both have higher mask usage now and more immunity.”

And, he added, “if people say they’re not wearing masks, they may not be taking other protective measures either. So perhaps what we see is a combination of mask usage, other social distancing behaviors and perhaps other factors we haven’t measured.”
Last edited by everything on Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:12 am

“For example, states that had worse outbreaks earlier in the pandemic both have higher mask usage now and more immunity.”


And, in general, most anyone/anywhere who had a serious case will probably take more precautions. More people taking precautions has to be better.

Chris Christie, after being in intensive care for a week, is now on a mission to encourage people to wear masks.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby everything on Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:20 am

Other than individual safety choices (that can help), here are some ideas for helping. No idea what is best, what works well, etc.

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020 ... lus-checks
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Trick on Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:45 am

Yesterday I read somewhere that this years influenza seem to be almost down to nothingness. Is that due to all restrictions implemented worldwide, that everyone wear facemask and keeping safe dostance the few times they have to do their necessities(buy food, as example) out from their safe homes ?
But then it’s reported an worrying increase in Corona 19 cases again. What’s the reason for the much fewer influenza cases this year ?
What I read yesterday about this situation had no answers to it, called it a mystery....
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Peacedog on Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:19 am

More information on Covid miscounting in the death rate and excess deaths.

https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-b ... aggerated/
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby roger hao on Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:19 pm

Percent of people who wear masks and know someone with Covid symptoms?

What the hell?

I wear a mask - I know President Trump - I live in Texas

So that means masks are good? Seems like hearsay LOL
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:15 pm

Peacedog wrote:More information on Covid miscounting in the death rate and excess deaths.

https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-b ... aggerated/


What a strange place to get your information.

Covid deaths are almost certainly underreported, not overreported.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... ified-such

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200 ... lData.aspx

https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... erreported

But, it is certainly true that we are going to have a lot of deaths due to the glut of routine measures, althogh, many hospitals are caught up (eg: the colonoscopy and endoscopy lab at my wife's hospital is 100% caught up). The thing to note here, however, is that if we had handled the pandemic aggressively and uniformly, rather than pretending that it wasn't a virus, or wasn't dangerous, or masks didn't work, etc..., none of that would be much of an issue.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:04 pm

But, it is certainly true that we are going to have a lot of deaths due to the glut of routine measures, althogh, many hospitals are caught up (eg: the colonoscopy and endoscopy lab at my wife's hospital is 100% caught up).


Well, anyone who has to be hospitalized uses hospital resources, whether he had covid or not. There are only X number of beds, nurses, doctors, and health staff. It's true that people who need hospital resources may not go to the hospital because they fear covid. But, anyone can go. The problem is when the hospitals are filled.

It's also no surprise that there are fewer flu cases (especially since flu season just starting) because more people are getting their shots "and" more people are doing more now to prevent the spread of infectious diseases than they ever have before. I.e., many of those who criticize all the government restrictions and lockdowns are (begrudgingly) wearing masks and washing their hands, etc. Many people are even covering their mouths when they cough or sneeze. Go figure

Iirc, the experts predicted a "second wave" or a rise in cases around now, so it's not really surprising. It didn't go away by Easter. Maybe by next one. Hey, it's kind of "normal" around here.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Ian C. Kuzushi on Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:15 pm

Steve James wrote:
But, it is certainly true that we are going to have a lot of deaths due to the glut of routine measures, althogh, many hospitals are caught up (eg: the colonoscopy and endoscopy lab at my wife's hospital is 100% caught up).


Well, anyone who has to be hospitalized uses hospital resources, whether he had covid or not. There are only X number of beds, nurses, doctors, and health staff. It's true that people who need hospital resources may not go to the hospital because they fear covid. But, anyone can go. The problem is when the hospitals are filled.

It's also no surprise that there are fewer flu cases (especially since flu season just starting) because more people are getting their shots "and" more people are doing more now to prevent the spread of infectious diseases than they ever have before. I.e., many of those who criticize all the government restrictions and lockdowns are (begrudgingly) wearing masks and washing their hands, etc. Many people are even covering their mouths when they cough or sneeze. Go figure

Iirc, the experts predicted a "second wave" or a rise in cases around now, so it's not really surprising. It didn't go away by Easter. Maybe by next one. Hey, it's kind of "normal" around here.


Sure, capacity is a whole other can of worms. Places like Utah and WI are on the cusp, so I'm observing our own hospitals with trepidation.

I'm not sure we ever left the first wave, btw. We never had uniform reductions of caseloads. It does look like it will get worse again, though. Even with improvements in treatments/therapy.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:59 pm

I'm not sure we ever left the first wave, btw. We never had uniform reductions of caseloads. It does look like it will get worse again, though. Even with improvements in treatments/therapy.


You're right; nothing has been uniform. Imo, it doesn't matter whether we call it a second wave or continuation of the first. The cases rose, then fell, now they're rising again. There are probably several reasons including mutations of the virus and more indoor activities.

It'll be a while before there are no cases, so staying healthy and out of the hospital is the main thing.
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Trick on Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:50 pm

. It didn't go away by Easter.
I’m not concerned too much about it, haven’t been for years since I moved to China. But how about in the west, will there be any Christmas this year, will families have their Christmas get together, will there be any shopping of Christmas gifts, will Santa dare to come around this year....?
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Re: Crazy (and not-so-crazy) shit about Covid-19

Postby Steve James on Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:48 pm

Sure. There are people trick or treating :). There won't be as many big family get togethers, but people will find a way to enjoy it.
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