Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

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Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby GrahamB on Wed May 20, 2020 3:17 am

1-3. Guns are not used millions of times each year in self-defense

We use epidemiological theory to explain why the “false positive” problem for rare events can lead to large overestimates of the incidence of rare diseases or rare phenomena such as self-defense gun use. We then try to validate the claims of many millions of annual self-defense uses against available evidence. We find that the claim of many millions of annual self-defense gun uses by American citizens is invalid.

Hemenway, David. Survey research and self-defense gun use: An explanation of extreme overestimates. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology. 1997; 87:1430-1445.

Hemenway, David. The myth of millions of annual self-defense gun uses: A case study of survey overestimates of rare events. Chance (American Statistical Association). 1997; 10:6-10.

Cook, Philip J; Ludwig, Jens; Hemenway, David. The gun debate’s new mythical number: How many defensive uses per year? Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. 1997; 16:463-469.


4. Most purported self-defense gun uses are gun uses in escalating arguments, and are both socially undesirable and illegal

We analyzed data from two national random-digit-dial surveys conducted under the auspices of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center. Criminal court judges who read the self-reported accounts of the purported self-defense gun use rated a majority as being illegal, even assuming that the respondent had a permit to own and to carry a gun, and that the respondent had described the event honestly from his own perspective.

Hemenway, David; Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah. Gun use in the United States: Results from two national surveys. Injury Prevention. 2000; 6:263-267.



5. Firearms are used far more often to intimidate than in self-defense

Using data from a national random-digit-dial telephone survey conducted under the direction of the Harvard Injury Control Center, we examined the extent and nature of offensive gun use. We found that firearms are used far more often to frighten and intimidate than they are used in self-defense. All reported cases of criminal gun use, as well as many of the so-called self-defense gun uses, appear to be socially undesirable.

Hemenway, David; Azrael, Deborah. The relative frequency of offensive and defensive gun use: Results of a national survey. Violence and Victims. 2000; 15:257-272.



6. Guns in the home are used more often to intimidate intimates than to thwart crime

Using data from a national random-digit-dial telephone survey conducted under the direction of the Harvard Injury Control Research Center, we investigated how and when guns are used in the home. We found that guns in the home are used more often to frighten intimates than to thwart crime; other weapons are far more commonly used against intruders than are guns.

Azrael, Deborah R; Hemenway, David. In the safety of your own home: Results from a national survey of gun use at home. Social Science and Medicine. 2000; 50:285-91.



7. Adolescents are far more likely to be threatened with a gun than to use one in self-defense

We analyzed data from a telephone survey of 5,800 California adolescents aged 12-17 years, which asked questions about gun threats against and self-defense gun use by these young people. We found that these young people were far more likely to be threatened with a gun than to use a gun in self-defense, and most of the reported self-defense gun uses were hostile interactions between armed adolescents. Males, smokers, binge drinkers, those who threatened others and whose parents were less likely to know their whereabouts were more likely both to be threatened with a gun and to use a gun in self-defense.

Hemenway, David; Miller, Matthew. Gun threats against and self-defense gun use by California adolescents. Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine. 2004; 158:395-400.



8. Criminals who are shot are typically the victims of crime

Using data from a survey of detainees in a Washington D.C. jail, we worked with a prison physician to investigate the circumstances of gunshot wounds to these criminals.

We found that one in four of these detainees had been wounded, in events that appear unrelated to their incarceration. Most were shot when they were victims of robberies, assaults and crossfires. Virtually none report being wounded by a “law-abiding citizen.”

May, John P; Hemenway, David. Oen, Roger; Pitts, Khalid R. When criminals are shot: A survey of Washington DC jail detainees. Medscape General Medicine. 2000; June 28. www.medscape.com



9-10. Few criminals are shot by decent law-abiding citizens

Using data from surveys of detainees in six jails from around the nation, we worked with a prison physician to determine whether criminals seek hospital medical care when they are shot. Criminals almost always go to the hospital when they are shot. To believe fully the claims of millions of self-defense gun uses each year would mean believing that decent law-abiding citizens shot hundreds of thousands of criminals. But the data from emergency departments belie this claim, unless hundreds of thousands of wounded criminals are afraid to seek medical care. But virtually all criminals who have been shot went to the hospital, and can describe in detail what happened there.

May, John P; Hemenway, David. Oen, Roger; Pitts, Khalid R. Medical Care Solicitation by Criminals with Gunshot Wound Injuries: A Survey of Washington DC Jail Detainees. Journal of Trauma. 2000; 48:130-132.

May, John P; Hemenway, David. Do Criminals Go to the Hospital When They are Shot? Injury Prevention. 2002; 8:236-238.



11. Self-defense gun use is rare and not more effective at preventing injury than other protective actions

Victims use guns in less than 1% of contact crimes, and women never use guns to protect themselves against sexual assault (in more than 300 cases). Victims using a gun were no less likely to be injured after taking protective action than victims using other forms of protective action. Compared to other protective actions, the National Crime Victimization Surveys provide little evidence that self-defense gun use is uniquely beneficial in reducing the likelihood of injury or property loss.

This article helps provide accurate information concerning self-defense gun use. It shows that many of the claims about the benefits of gun ownership are largely myths.

Hemenway D, Solnick SJ. The epidemiology of self-defense gun use: Evidence from the National Crime Victimization Surveys 2007-2011. Preventive Medicine. 2015; 79: 22-27.

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/fire ... gun-use-2/
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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby Peacedog on Wed May 20, 2020 5:12 am

Except all of the sources you quoted are known anti-gun rights organizations. All of whom are well known to lie and misreport statistics to support their chosen position.

The most credible numbers I've seen for the US are 1100-1500 defensive firearms uses per day of which 75% consist of a firearm being displayed and the aggressor running away.

Here's a decent article on the issue. The most damning aspect of it is the Center of Disease Control burying the report, specifically because it didn't support their desired outcome.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/paulhsieh/ ... e994fe299a

Anyone looking to disarm you is promoting their position not your ability to defend yourself.
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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby GrahamB on Wed May 20, 2020 5:16 am

"you quote"?

It's a Harvard Injury Control Research Center paper. I didn't write it.
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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby roger hao on Wed May 20, 2020 7:02 am

Cool - you are saying that people are using guns to keep their kids in line.

I suppose it could work - I didn't see the stats for family shoot outs.
If the first statement is true then there must be some - right?
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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby roger hao on Wed May 20, 2020 7:04 am

How about making people dance in Western Saloons?

I didn't see that stat. it happens on TV. I was watching Hopalong Cassidy
a few days ago and it happened. So I know it exists.
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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby roger hao on Wed May 20, 2020 7:07 am

Using data from surveys of detainees in six jails from around the nation,

This survey also determined that 100% of the detainees were innocent.
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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby Michael on Wed May 20, 2020 8:52 am

This survey also determined that 100% of the detainees were innocent.


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Didn't you know we're all innocent up in here?
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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby Michael on Wed May 20, 2020 8:55 am

Cool - you are saying that people are using guns to keep their kids in line.

I suppose it could work - I didn't see the stats for family shoot outs.
If the first statement is true then there must be some - right?


You dare to doubt? I've got the documentary footage right here.

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"but we’re going to hunt down that last point-one percent and say: ‘you’ve gotta get inside, you gotta cut it out, and you gotta distance.’” —Mayor Garcetti
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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby Peacedog on Wed May 20, 2020 9:35 am

Also keep in mind no effective way exists to generate solid data on the numbers of defensive firearms uses for several reasons.

First, neither party, the one with the firearm and the aggressor, are apt to report what happened to the authorities. For obvious reasons, criminals do not talk to the authorities. Civilians involved in these events don't want to get involved with the police either due to the high risk of prosecutorial misconduct.

Interviews with both career criminals and law enforcement indicate this is a fairly common occurrence. How common? Who knows.

Even those who assess this as a common occurrence can only ballpark the number between 500,000 and 3 million cases per year in the US alone. Precisely because no good data exists. And cannot exist given the current legal climate.

So anyone claiming this is a rare event likewise has absolutely nothing to support the claim.

In my case, I've had this happen twice in approximately 25 years. One round was discharged between both occurrences. And no one called the police.

The first occasion happened in the middle of the night. I only know what exactly happened as the gangbangers who lived next door to me came over, and politely by their standards, explained what happened. Apparently some of their competitors became confused and tried to break into the wrong house. Had I been unarmed, I probably would have died or been severely injured at a minimum.

The second occurrence happened at a cabin I was staying in the woods. Someone tried to break in while I was sleeping. They got the front door open only to see me standing there with an AR-15 pointed at them. The individual in question ran away screaming, "don't shoot me." My car was parked outside, so the individual in question knew I was there. Again, at a minimum I would have been severely injured if I was unarmed.

I didn't report either event.

Firearms are the great equalizer. They are the only thing that gives women, the elderly or the outnumbered any chance at all against young men bent on rape, robbery and murder. They also greatly reduce the risk of oppressive government taking place. Armed people don't get slaughtered in my experience. I've never seen a mass grave where the victims had access to firearms.

Anyone who wants to disarm you is doing so specifically to disempower you. By default anything that disempowers you is a bad idea. Don't give in to this bullshit.
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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby Tom on Wed May 20, 2020 9:42 am

Graham, meet Brick Wall.
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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby GrahamB on Wed May 20, 2020 10:34 am

Brick Wall, meet South Park:

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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby GrahamB on Wed May 20, 2020 10:38 am

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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby roger hao on Wed May 20, 2020 12:01 pm

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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby roger hao on Wed May 20, 2020 12:08 pm

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Re: Gun Threats and Self-Defense Gun Use

Postby jimmy on Wed May 20, 2020 12:20 pm

Peacedog wrote:Firearms are the great equalizer. They are the only thing that gives women, the elderly or the outnumbered any chance at all against young men bent on rape, robbery and murder.


I would like to hear the staunchly anti-gun advocates address this point.
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