Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby Michael on Sun May 24, 2020 8:46 pm

Bao, what I meant is that it is incorrect to minimize this problem and say the red envelope to doctors bribe scheme began in the nineties with Jiang Zemin. It is much older and more ubiquitous than that, it is part of the overall good and bad of the CCP approach to health care.
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby Bao on Sun May 24, 2020 10:23 pm

Ok Michael, I hear you. That is something I didn't know.
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby Trick on Mon May 25, 2020 1:11 am

Michael wrote:
I've lived in China and have friends that are Buddhists and Muslims. I have seen no attacks on Buddhism or any other religion whatsoever. All of that are myths, I can assure you of that.

Are you saying that Buddhists in Tibet, Sichuan, and Qinghai, as well as Muslims in Xinjiang, are not now being attacked?

If religion is used as an force to gain power then those people involved in that power gaining activity will be dealt with, this is very clear....otherwise religious people can freely go on with their godly beliefs.
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby Trick on Mon May 25, 2020 1:17 am

Michael wrote:Bao, what I meant is that it is incorrect to minimize this problem and say the red envelope to doctors bribe scheme began in the nineties with Jiang Zemin. It is much older and more ubiquitous than that, it is part of the overall good and bad of the CCP approach to health care.

I agree that bribing is an old long lived cultural thing......in many parts of the world Perhaps in most parts of the world
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby bailewen on Wed May 27, 2020 7:14 am

Peacedog wrote:Yeah, it sucks, but HK is done.

Conventional wisdom was that the PRC didn't want to kill the golden goose of the HK economy, so they would be fairly hands off.




meh. HK ain't no golden goose. It WAS a golden goose, but, you know, Shanghai.

Deng Xiaoping leads...Chengdu becomes a big deal.

Jiang Zimin takes over, Shanghai is all that and a bag of chips.

You know where Xi is from? Weinan, a little suburb of Xi'an. No wonder Xi'an is doing so well these days.

Anyways, the southern tour with Deng Xiaoping set the state for HK's demise. It basically laid the groundwork for Shenzhen to take over. Then Jiang Zemin (previously mayor of Shanghai) made Shanghai a bigger economic power than HK, while also establishing Shenzhen as a sort of mirror of HK.

Now the focus is on the northwest, where I live. Also, no coincidence I'm sure, Xi Jingping's home town.

It's been a 40 year process, but HK has been steadily de-emphasized for a long time now.

But as Xi is displaying, socialists gonna socialize.

nah. he's a technocrat. The US is talking soybeans. China is talking microships.

The US is on a fast downward trajectory. It sucks, but it's true. These are dark days for liberal democracy folks. :P
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby Michael on Wed May 27, 2020 9:39 am

Because of new law introduced to HK, US Sec State Pompeo declared Hong Kong no longer autonomous, which will affect US relations with it, including trade. I expect this to accelerate the transfer.

IMO, the US has been adding fuel to the fire by contributing to the protests (where they were not needed or helping IMO) because the US presence makes them even more intolerable to China. Again, my opinion.

US prolly still unhappy that HK did not detain Snowden when requested. back in 2013.
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby Peacedog on Wed May 27, 2020 11:56 am

Except the part that is missing here is that the Hong Kong dollar is convertible and the RMB is not (and will most likely never be). While HK has shrunk form being 20% of the Chinese economy to 3% over the last 30 years, it is still the only gateway for moving RMB into hard currency.

And the US just pulled HK's financial status. Once the HK dollar is no longer convertible, this is going to hit the Chinese economy very hard. Now that isn't on the table yet, but given how many people the PRC just murdered off in the West with CV-19 it is coming.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/ ... 46550.html

Also ignore what doomsayers are spouting about the US economy and the West writ large. It's utter bullshit.

The fact is that without significant political, and cultural reform, mainland China will remain, and most likely always be, a free rider on Western technological and financial development. My personal suspicion is that the level of development you currently see in the PRC is essentially the limit of what can currently be done given their cultural operating system.

Hong Kong provided a critical bridge to the PRC with the West in this regard, but Xi being a socialist would rather have power, and control, over even the tiniest of his populations than development that could possibly change the power dynamic in his country.

One of the reasons why the PRC is going all in on AI is that as the society is currently structured they cannot operate next generation technology. The people running the country are hoping the machines can do this for them. And they are wrong on this.

Once the West stops using mainland China for its low and mid-level manufacturing needs, and the situation in HK and CV-19 is greatly accelerating this, they will no longer have access to hard currency. It will be devastating for the PRC.
Last edited by Peacedog on Wed May 27, 2020 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby bailewen on Wed May 27, 2020 3:44 pm

we'll see.

I hope you're right, but I don't think you will be. From my perspective, China has been on an uphill trajectory for the past 20 years, and the US has been going downhill pretty fast. In particular is the populist anti-science movement in the US. There's just no anti-science movement of note in China. And basically since 2008, China just keeps slowly increasing their credibility with the currency. Capital controls are still firmly in place, and as long as that is the case, there's no way on this earth they RMB can be seriously considered as part of any sort of bucket of currencies to replace the USD as the reserve, but that's the long term goal. And I actually(totally self interested here) hope they make progress on that because then I could finally get my money out of China without having to do it piecemeal and with it being a giant 1-2 day process at the bank where I would have to take a day off work to do it.

CV-19 has been pretty rough for China, that's for sure. More death and direct economic damage in the US, but CV-19 took a giant chainsaw to the belt and road thing, that's for sure. Xi must be grinding his teeth at night about that part for sure.
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby Bill on Wed May 27, 2020 4:46 pm

There is no anti-science movement in the US. I don't know where you got that. ::)
Where do you think Chinese college students go to learn science? They come to US Universities and Colleges.
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby .Q. on Wed May 27, 2020 4:56 pm

bailewen wrote:The US is talking soybeans. China is talking microships.


I'm pretty sure the opposite is happening, US is taking away microchips from China and selling soybeans.
TSMC news.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Huawe ... strictions
China buying soybeans.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN22622W

US is implementing new policy trying to prevent any company that uses US tech to sell to Huwawei. It was reduced from 25% allowed to 10% to 0. This also blocked sales from ASML, which is the world's highest level maker of lithography machines, which is critical to chip making. China is pretty much screwed as no country making CPUs can avoid using US tech and patents. They can probably make their own chips but at best it's going to be 12 or 14 nm. That's why Huwawei put in a huge emergency order to TSMC hoping to get more chips in before US seals them out. If US sticks w/ this policy, China's tech that need chips will be put back at least 10 years.

China is also buying a lot of food because there is going to be a giant expected food shortage (not just China). Several countries China typically buys from has already stopped exporting food, at least temporarily, due to bad weather, coronavirus and locusts. Ironically to punish Australia for leading the coronavirus inspection, they're threatening to put giant tariffs on wheat(?) and other things. I recently learned that Tsingtao Beer uses Australian wheat, so if this tariff comes into effect expect Tsingtao to taste different.
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby .Q. on Wed May 27, 2020 5:07 pm

This guy explains HK's importance in bringing in foreign investments to China. 2/3 of foreign investment for China in 2019 was brought in through HK. Important stuff starts at about 1:00 in. I had no idea how much HK brings in for China and it was due to recognition of the Sino-British Joint Declaration. If the west declares the contract is violated due to the takeover, there will be dire financial consequences.


Note that his source of info was from China's own government numbers.
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby Peacedog on Wed May 27, 2020 5:13 pm

Also keep in mind a lot of that came from HKs court system, which, traditionally, was viewed as reliable. So, as a foreign investor you felt safe operating from there as you knew you’d get a fair hearing over a contract dispute.

That is explicitly not true for foreign investors in mainland courts.

If HK loses its status that implies a whole bunch of things to include an international condemnation of their court system.
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby windwalker on Wed May 27, 2020 6:08 pm

.Q. wrote:
I'm pretty sure the opposite is happening, US is taking away microchips from China and selling soybeans.
TSMC news.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Huawe ... strictions
China buying soybeans.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN22622W

US is implementing new policy trying to prevent any company that uses US tech to sell to Huwawei. It was reduced from 25% allowed to 10% to 0. This also blocked sales from ASML, which is the world's highest level maker of lithography machines, which is critical to chip making. China is pretty much screwed as no country making CPUs can avoid using US tech and patents. They can probably make their own chips but at best it's going to be 12 or 14 nm. That's why Huwawei put in a huge emergency order to TSMC hoping to get more chips in before US seals them out. If US sticks w/ this policy, China's tech that need chips will be put back at least 10 years.

hard to say. The same things was tried with intel chips. China in turn developed it's own inhouse

The record was surpassed in June 2016 by the Sunway TaihuLight. In 2015, plans of the Sun Yat-sen University in collaboration with Guangzhou district and city administration to double its computing capacities were stopped by a U.S. government rejection of Intel's application for an export license for the CPUs and coprocessor boards.[6][7][8]

In response to the U.S. sanction, China introduced the Sunway TaihuLight supercomputer in 2016, which substantially outperforms the Tianhe-2 (and also affected the update of Tianhe-2 to Tianhe-2A replacing US tech), and now ranks fourth in the TOP500 list while using completely domestic technology including the Sunway manycore microprocessor.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianhe-2


China is also buying a lot of food because there is going to be a giant expected food shortage (not just China). Several countries China typically buys from has already stopped exporting food, at least temporarily, due to bad weather, coronavirus and locusts. Ironically to punish Australia for leading the coronavirus inspection, they're threatening to put giant tariffs on wheat(?) and other things. I recently learned that Tsingtao Beer uses Australian wheat, so if this tariff comes into effect expect Tsingtao to taste different.



ASML, which is the world's highest level maker of lithography machines,


Cannon, Nikon also make some high end lithography tools. Worked with Cannon Scanners and on US low end steppers in fabs, installations, maintenance ect.
There are only a few maybe only one company not a US one, able to make the lenses they use. The tech, that goes into them at that level is really unbelievable.

In talking with some of my students, they point out that its the capitalist in the US that tend to undermine it, China understanding this uses it quite logically to its advantage.
They mention the social structure is in danger collapsing from the inside.

HK fate was sealed long ago, lots of social problems not related to the agreement pushed by the younger generation or maybe
by those pushing the younger generation benefiting from it.
Last edited by windwalker on Wed May 27, 2020 6:28 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby .Q. on Wed May 27, 2020 7:46 pm

windwalker wrote:
.Q. wrote:
I'm pretty sure the opposite is happening, US is taking away microchips from China and selling soybeans.
TSMC news.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Huawe ... strictions
China buying soybeans.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKCN22622W

US is implementing new policy trying to prevent any company that uses US tech to sell to Huwawei. It was reduced from 25% allowed to 10% to 0. This also blocked sales from ASML, which is the world's highest level maker of lithography machines, which is critical to chip making. China is pretty much screwed as no country making CPUs can avoid using US tech and patents. They can probably make their own chips but at best it's going to be 12 or 14 nm. That's why Huwawei put in a huge emergency order to TSMC hoping to get more chips in before US seals them out. If US sticks w/ this policy, China's tech that need chips will be put back at least 10 years.

hard to say. The same things was tried with intel chips. China in turn developed it's own inhouse

The record was surpassed in June 2016 by the Sunway TaihuLight. In 2015, plans of the Sun Yat-sen University in collaboration with Guangzhou district and city administration to double its computing capacities were stopped by a U.S. government rejection of Intel's application for an export license for the CPUs and coprocessor boards.[6][7][8]

In response to the U.S. sanction, China introduced the Sunway TaihuLight supercomputer in 2016, which substantially outperforms the Tianhe-2 (and also affected the update of Tianhe-2 to Tianhe-2A replacing US tech), and now ranks fourth in the TOP500 list while using completely domestic technology including the Sunway manycore microprocessor.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianhe-2

>>> Supercomputer performance is actually pretty dependent on the parallelization of the CPUs rather than the individual ability of its chips. It's definitely a great achievement but it's different from the chip miniaturization process. For some odd reason I am not able to find the process info of the Sunway SW26010 chip used by Sunway TaihuLight but its predecessor, Sunway SW-3, used 65 nm process according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunway_(processor).

China is also buying a lot of food because there is going to be a giant expected food shortage (not just China). Several countries China typically buys from has already stopped exporting food, at least temporarily, due to bad weather, coronavirus and locusts. Ironically to punish Australia for leading the coronavirus inspection, they're threatening to put giant tariffs on wheat(?) and other things. I recently learned that Tsingtao Beer uses Australian wheat, so if this tariff comes into effect expect Tsingtao to taste different.



ASML, which is the world's highest level maker of lithography machines,


Cannon, Nikon also make some high end lithography tools. Worked with Cannon Scanners and on US low end steppers in fabs, installations, maintenance ect.

>>> I've seen news that mentioned specifically Cannon and Nikon gave up on competing w/ ASML for anything past 12 or 14nm because it's just that hard. Not even US can do it. ASML (from Holland) is the top dog in the industry. Too lazy to look it up again, but I saw that mentioned from at least 2 different places.

There are only a few maybe only one company not a US one, able to make the lenses they use. The tech, that goes into them at that level is really unbelievable.

In talking with some of my students, they point out that its the capitalist in the US that tend to undermine it, China understanding this uses it quite logically to its advantage.

>>> What's being undermined here? Are we still taking about lithography machines or are you referring to HK?

They mention the social structure is in danger collapsing from the inside.

HK fate was sealed long ago, lots of social problems not related to the agreement pushed by the younger generation or maybe
by those pushing the younger generation benefiting from it.

>>> We all knew HK's fate was sealed. Just didn't expect check to be cashed that soon.
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Re: Hong Kong: end of one country, two systems?

Postby windwalker on Wed May 27, 2020 8:01 pm

I've seen news that mentioned specifically Cannon and Nikon gave up on competing w/ ASML for anything past 12 or 14nm because it's just that hard. Not even US can do it. ASML (from Holland) is the top dog in the industry. Too lazy to look it up again, but I saw that mentioned from at least 2 different places.


Thanks,

yep asml The last time I saw them were pretty cool had a friend who worked with asml holland group.
Their work practices were different from the USA group according to him. Holland group had a better working environment.


HK, was over long before the ink dried,
Never quite understood why people thought the two systems would evolve into something else rather than it being just a transition period to one system.
Not HK one.
Last edited by windwalker on Wed May 27, 2020 9:27 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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