Will There Be War?

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Will There Be War?

Postby Strange on Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:19 am





Last edited by Strange on Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:39 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby wiesiek on Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:01 am

WW III is in progress , however - starting point is blur ,
but
nobody acclaimed it officially . (afraid to do so?)
`cause such tthing happen 1st time in our history, we don`t have the name for it.
In mean time we call it : "PANDEMIC"
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Peacedog on Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:06 am

IDK, functionally could China take Taiwan? Sure. Now would the international blowback be worth it? Definitely not. I'm not sure if Xi would care.

As for war between the US and China, this is more of an internal Chinese talking point. These socialist regimes are always convinced someone is trying to invade them when in fact as long as none of the US' allies are being threatened they don't really care what China does. Paranoia is eternally a socialist virtue. Functionally, any kinetic action between the US and China would be a missile fight with supporting air and naval activity.

The reality is the distances are too great for an effective ground force to be staged. And geographically it would be hopeless. You would need to stage in south Korea, invade North Korea and buttonhook down to Beijing. Not ideal. The other choice would be to go through Mongolia, but then the Russians, via their port and rail network, would need to support the activity and I don't see that happening. You could stage through Vietnam into Yunnan I guess, but none of the infrastructure exists that would be required either. And finally, coming in via the littoral route would require a Marine Corps several times larger than the US has ever historically had.

Even in the case of Iraq, which is a far smaller place than China, it took about a year to stage everything. And no activity of that kind is in the works. Not to mention the US would need an army 2-3 times the size of the one it currently has to even begin to control a significant portion of the eastern Chinese seaboard.

And again, keep in mind, that outside of trade and the recent Covid-19/Wuhan flu events the US as a country really doesn't care what happens inside China. It is too far away and has nothing the US needs aside from low to mid range manufacturing and even that is slowly going away as other countries develop that are geographically nearer resulting in reduced logistics costs vis a vis price point for manufactured goods. It has not been a "rise of China" so much as China no longer kneecapping itself through idiotic economic and political own/self goals. Cultural revolution anyone?



Economically China will pay for its Covid-19 responsibility. Probably through greatly reduced economic activity with the West as whole. Because if people think the US is pissed with Xi over this bullshit, you should see how upset the European elites are. It's pretty crazy. Boris Johnson is livid over the whole almost dying thing and almost taking out one of the British elites is a sure fire way of provoking that whole group of people.

People here routinely forget that aside from its greatly overstated economic abilities that China has no ability to project power and its military technology is at least 30 years behind the West. And contrary to what the media is hyping, they are actually falling further behind. Their antiquated military command and control methods makes them even less competitive in the kinetic arena than their technology does. It is a force divider not a force multiplier.
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby roger hao on Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:51 pm

China has 2 air craft carriers. They don't have a steam catapult hence
the use of a ski jump. And the air craft carriers are non-nuclear.

6 subs.

The Red China Sea showdown - odds are not in favor of China
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Trick on Mon Oct 19, 2020 11:22 pm

Peacedog wrote:
As for war between the US and China, this is more of an internal Chinese talking point. These socialist regimes are always convinced someone is trying to invade them when in fact as long as none of the US' allies are being threatened they don't really care what China does. Paranoia is eternally a socialist virtue.


Sounds you’re talking in your nightcap here.

Ever since China(Far East) became known to western powers they wanted to make that part of the world part of that “western power”
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Bao on Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:20 am

I do believe that the US and China are too much dependent on each other. So many US citizens working and living in China, and obviously a lot of Chines jin the US.

But I do believe that Trump is capable of doing anything just to stay in office. Nixon prolonged the Vietnam War, killing many people, just to have a bigger chance to get re-elected. Trump could probably do worse than that, maybe even start a new war. But OTOH, if he wanted to do so, he would already have done it. So close to the election? A little chance.

"Economically China will pay for its Covid-19 responsibility."


They reported, warned about the virus and showed the world how a country must act in a pandemic. Xi is not responsible for the misleading reporting of the WHO, the several months of passivity of the US, or that the EU countries can not cooperate and don't follow earlier agreements on how to act in this kind of situation.
Last edited by Bao on Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:21 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Overlord on Tue Oct 20, 2020 6:46 am

Yes. Very likely between now and beginning of next year.
If the Chinese commi don’t use nuclear arsenals, Taiwan will very likely win (80-85%).
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Strange on Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:43 am

Overlord,
in what way would Taiwan "very likely win"
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Bao on Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:37 pm

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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Overlord on Tue Oct 20, 2020 1:43 pm

Strange wrote:Overlord,
in what way would Taiwan "very likely win"

Hi Strange,
At this sensitive moment of time, I think it’s not right to address this too much. It’s better to let time play out and see.
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Kelley Graham on Tue Oct 20, 2020 4:35 pm

Peacedog wrote:...These socialist regimes are always convinced someone is trying to invade them when in fact as long as none of the US' allies are being threatened they don't really care what China does. Paranoia is eternally a socialist virtue...


Trying to unpack this. China is communist, not socialist. Communism is not socialism. Really different on many levels. Also, paranoia is not a political or cultural trait that can be applied to an entire society.
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Strange on Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:23 am

“泽国江山入战图,生民何计乐樵苏 。凭君莫话封侯事,一将功成万骨枯
传闻一战百神愁,两岸强兵过未休。谁道沧江总无事,近来长共血争流。”
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现在是帝都登了 怎么还打?
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Strange on Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:27 am

i am seeing this from the standpoint of China's political will and determination
to see a country under full and complete sovereignty.
after HK and Macau, the only matter left is Taiwan.
one might argue that Taiwan is different from HK and Macau...
but the question is if China makes such a distinction in this matter.
天官指星 单对月 风摆荷叶 影成双

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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Overlord on Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:36 am

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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Franklin on Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:13 am

Strange wrote:i am seeing this from the standpoint of China's political will and determination
to see a country under full and complete sovereignty.
after HK and Macau, the only matter left is Taiwan.
one might argue that Taiwan is different from HK and Macau...
but the question is if China makes such a distinction in this matter.



i am not sure taiwan is the only one left...

this video starts with their claims on a russian city..
then then goes through 21 disputes china has with its neighbors...
with lands that China claims are theirs....





post script...
Bao claiming that Xi is not responsible for the faulty reporting of WHO
is blatantly misrepresenting the events that occurred...

probably a truer statement -
is that china has great influence over UN and WHO
and that this was planned and strategic - not happenstance
(recently didn't China just get on the board of the Human rights council of UN? -- another example and probably why we will probably see in the future that china will be able to claim that there is no evidence of human rights violations inside china -- the proof is the finding of the Un human rights council.. lol)


also probably every western country - is able to blame their lack of early response on WHO guidance and recommendations...
they all followed them..
in fact i remember when WHO said there is no need to stop travel and trade....



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