Will There Be War?

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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Strange on Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:31 am

Franklin, its interesting
perhaps you will give me that no other "lands" are buying jets and weapons from the US

Further, I see it as interesting that now Xi has almost absolute power,
China seems to be more stronger in stance and more expressive and aggressive in their claims.
Or perhaps it is that because he needs to have Taiwan to further consolidate his personal power,
such that he has more control of the political situation at home.

I think to be sure, there is no real solution that can be acceptable to both sides.
Neither side will give up easily their beliefs or way of life and culture.
As China becomes stronger each day, I'm afraid that very soon China will consider
Taiwan a nail because she has a hammer.
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Franklin on Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:03 am

Strange wrote:Franklin, its interesting
perhaps you will give me that no other "lands" are buying jets and weapons from the US

Further, I see it as interesting that now Xi has almost absolute power,
China seems to be more stronger in stance and more expressive and aggressive in their claims.
Or perhaps it is that because he needs to have Taiwan to further consolidate his personal power,
such that he has more control of the political situation at home.

I think to be sure, there is no real solution that can be acceptable to both sides.
Neither side will give up easily their beliefs or way of life and culture.
As China becomes stronger each day, I'm afraid that very soon China will consider
Taiwan a nail because she has a hammer.



my only point on that video - was to showcase that I don't think their aspirations stop at taiwan..
if you pay attention- which most people don't
they currently have land disputes with almost all of their neighbors...
then you look at what they are doing to change the status quo of international organizations -
then you look at the belt and road initiative -- and the ports and military bases that come from that
then you look at the rhetoric which comes out of Xi and the CCP
about exporting their ideology and methods as the model that is the most correct, etc...
that they are the beacon for the pandemic and everyone should be doing what they did - it is the only effective solution...
then look at them breaking treatise and agreements - ignoring court rulings..
and at the same time - using those things they ignore or break the rules of - to hold other international players to them -- while they break them..

so i think to say - that they only want one thing is wrong
and that they will stop is wrong


as for buying weapons...
war is a machine that makes money for lots of people.....
i am not commenting on that...


Franklin
Last edited by Franklin on Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Bill on Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:39 am

Strange wrote:Franklin, its interesting
perhaps you will give me that no other "lands" are buying jets and weapons from the US.


The US is the largest exporter of arms in the world. The US supplies arms to over 98 nations and to 20 of the top 40 arms importers in the world.
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby windwalker on Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:42 am

Interesting video explores the rationale for why China may, or will take action on Taiwan.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VkuNWDG3yNM&t=570s
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Trick on Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:32 am

Peacedog wrote:As for war between the US and China, this is more of an internal Chinese talking point. These socialist regimes are always convinced someone is trying to invade them when in fact as long as none of the US' allies are being threatened they don't really care what China does. Paranoia is eternally a socialist virtue.

.

US defense budget is about $720 billion......China's budget is almost $180 billion.as for N.Korea i found no figures on how much but they are supposed to be at 25th place in the world of national defense budgets....On the top ten list we have japan and south korea with an yearly budget of about $50 billion and $45 billion respectively, both of them of course parts of an US extended/ extra "defense" budget.......
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Peacedog on Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:30 pm

Except the numbers on the US defense budget versus other groups is not that simple of a comparison.

First, the US is the worldwide guarantor of free movement of both the seas and by air. Global trade as most people understand it simply would not exist were it not for the US Navy, and US Air Force, allowing freedom of movement worldwide. Seaborne piracy was a major contributor towards restricting trade worldwide historically. The reason why this is largely not a problem outside coastal waters, which are controlled by the local nation states, is the US Navy prevents it. All other nations world wide are essentially free riders on the US Navy regarding freedom of movement. And the US does not charge for this either. To a lesser degree this is also true of air travel, although since most air travel happens over nation states this is more of a localized issue. This is a reason why European military forces are so small at present. They do not have to protect their shipping or international waterways. The US does it for them.

As an example, prior to the rise of the US Navy in 1814, 25% of the US budget at the time went to paying off Islamic slavers and raiders from the north African coast to not attack US shipping. The inability of the UK government to protect colonial shipping from these same forces in north Africa prior to the American Revolution was a major contributor to the decision of the colonies to separate from the Crown.

Second, European militaries are the size they are as they can rely upon the overwhelming firepower of the US military to defend them in the event of attack. This was an intentional development out of WWII to dampen down the routine slaughter engaged between different European states that existed prior to WWII. It is also why the Japanese, and Korean, militaries are as small as they are as various mutual protection agreements between those states and the US decrease their need to maintain historically large forces. This is also true for many other states worldwide that have mutual protection treaties with the US. Again, Pax Americana is a real thing and violently enforced. The alternative is everyone taking care of themselves and this would result in everyone spending massively more on defense worldwide immediately.

Third, no one outside of the CCP knows how much is being spent on the armed forces of mainland China. Any numbers reported by the CCP to the outside world are complete lies and manipulated for political purposes. It does not help that the RMB is not convertible and does not float in relation to the value of other currencies. As such, it would be almost impossible to accurately gauge CCP military expenditures even if you had the raw numbers, which no one outside the CCP does.

Fourth, regarding the cost of US defense exports (i.e. arms sales). Most of this is made up of high end military items and logistics. The cost of a single new Lockheed Martin F-16 aircraft, without spares/training/logistics, can easily top $35 million. Billion dollar sales for an F-16 package frequently occur once the costs of spares/training/maintenance/logistics are counted. And these systems do not see a huge amount of use on day to day basis. Also, the US actively limits how and where its high end hardware gets used, which is not true of the sales coming out of most other countries with the exception of the UK and to a limited degree France. Expensive high tech equipment does not function for long without the support of its manufacturer and this requires the expressed permission of the countries involved. You need a university educated aerospace engineer to to even think about keeping an F-35 flying.

Fifth, most of the deaths associated with arms sales worldwide come from the sale of small arms/munitions (like AK-47s and RPG-7s) and landmines out of Asia and former Soviet pact countries. A half retarded man who copulates with goats can maintain an AK-47 and handload ammunition. A slightly less retarded man who is a product of multigenerational cousin marriage can maintain a 40 year old T-55 tank. And the US, for the most part, does not traffic to any meaningful degree in these type of systems.
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Overlord on Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:03 pm

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_the_Undetermined_Status_of_Taiwan

[url]https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/白團[/url]
[url]https://ja.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/白団[/url]
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Overlord on Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:12 pm







Hi Strange,
Today if Singapore is under threats and invasion from Malaysia, you be sure that I be supporting Singapore in anyway possible, regardless the strength of Malaysia.
Cheers,
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Bao on Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:34 am

Strange wrote:China seems to be more stronger in stance and more expressive and aggressive in their claims.
...
Or perhaps it is that because he needs to have Taiwan to further consolidate his personal power,
such that he has more control of the political situation at home.
...I'm afraid that very soon China will consider
Taiwan a nail because she has a hammer.


Have no idea what you are talking about. China only raise their security around the borders because of the US sending more forces. Both China and Taiwan regard their countries as one. This is even something that is written in the Taiwanese constitution. No one is going to do anything. Xi has no interest in, or any gain to, attack Taiwan. That is again only some fantasy that the US made up.

Franklin wrote:probably a truer statement -
is that china has great influence over UN and WHO
and that this was planned and strategic - not happenstance


Another american made up fantasy. Should China have planned and decided what the WHO reported? That's just silly.

What is true though is that China has sent a tremendous amount of help to different countries, as staff, equipment etc. They've spent a fortune on the most affected countries as Italy and Spain as well as others. Alos, Chinese companies as Huawei sent aid and equipment for millions and millions of dollars to the US. Huawei especially did much for New York and sent a lot of aid and equipment for millions of dollars.

If Chinese didn't care and wanted this plague on other countries, why should they try to help and do as much as possible? The US especially is acting totally ridiculous and like a spoiled little brat and wouldn't get satisfied however much China did. Despite all of all the early warnings, already from the beginning of January, but the US didn't act for three months. Do you really believe all this stupidity is Xi's fault?

also probably every western country - is able to blame their lack of early response on WHO guidance and recommendations...
they all followed them..
in fact i remember when WHO said there is no need to stop travel and trade....


China closed down whole cities and stopped or controlled the travel between cities, but the WHO said it's safe to travel. Don't you see the irony? A lot of neighbours followed China's example. Here in Europe the countries thought that China doesn't know what they are doing, so they followed the WHO, waited and waited.... And the Chinese just shocked their heads and wondered WTF we were doing here. And you blame all of this stupidity on Xi. ... :P
Last edited by Bao on Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Bao on Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:55 am

Just a little bit more about the virus before I stopp derailing this tread.

Published in international press Jan 18:

"No human-to-human transmission has been confirmed so far, but Wuhan's health commission has said the possibility "cannot be excluded".

A World Health Organization doctor said it would not be surprising if there was "some limited human-to-human transmission, especially among families who have close contact with one another"."

https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/18385 ... hina-virus

Clear warnings from both China and the WHO around the middle of January.

Published the 21st of January:

"China's top leaders have warned lower-level officials not to cover up the spread of a new coronavirus that has now infected nearly 300 people.
Anyone who concealed new cases would "be nailed on the pillar of shame for eternity", the political body responsible for law and order said.
The warning came as state media said six people had now died from the virus, which causes a type of pneumonia.
It's been confirmed the virus can pass from person to person".


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51185836

Clear warnings about the dangers and confirmation about the passing from person to person.
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Trick on Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:38 am

.probably a truer statement -
is that china has great influence over UN and WHO
and that this was planned and strategic - not happenstance


Another american made up fantasy. Should China have planned and decided what the WHO reported? That's just silly.
[/quote] yes just another conspiracy theory....
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Strange on Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:32 am

Bao wrote: No one is going to do anything. Xi has no interest in, or any gain to, attack Taiwan. That is again only some fantasy that the US made up.


:)
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Strange on Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:39 am

Overlord wrote:Hi Strange,
Today if Singapore is under threats and invasion from Malaysia, you be sure that I be supporting Singapore in anyway possible, regardless the strength of Malaysia.
Cheers,


Thank you.
sometimes it is a weak one that you must fear
cos it has to seek out an external enemy to shift the peoples attention away from internal problems
... like Argentina with the Falklands

孙子《谋攻篇》:“百战百胜,非善之善者也;不战而屈人之兵,善之善者也。”
《六韬》:“善战者,不待张军;善除患者,理于未生;善胜敌者,胜于无形;上战无与战”

Personally i would say that that one must already won, before stepping into a fight.
But i think this is still inferior of Sun-Zi way of winning by not fighting.
This way of not fighting must surely be by some form of diplomacy
and if diplomacy is use, then there must be a compelling and uniting rationale
想法决定格局
at the very beginning, one must not lose in "thinking".
my brother, do you think this is correct?
Last edited by Strange on Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Steve James on Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:56 am

Strange wrote:
Bao wrote: No one is going to do anything. Xi has no interest in, or any gain to, attack Taiwan. That is again only some fantasy that the US made up.


:)


Jmo, but I agree that Xi has nothing to gain from attacking Taiwan militarily. China is the regional superpower. It's the US which is extending its influence. Of course, there's a long history behind why Taiwan considers itself China to the dismay of the PRC. I had nationalist teachers who were very biased against the "communists." However, to me it's more natural for the PRC to control Taiwan than it is for the US to embargo Cuba.

The PRC will respond when the US sells billions of dollars of military hardware to Taiwan, because it will seem like an escalation. Xi knows that he could beat Taiwan militarily even with US support. Sure, we could nuke China. But, how would the rest of the world react? Does anyone think that any country will support the US against China in that region?

So, if Xi wants a war, it has to be provoked by the Taiwanese --and I don't think they'll do it. US arms sales to Taiwan are economically motivated. Imo, Japan and India are bigger issues for Xi. Frankly, though there may be human rights abuses in the PRC, I don't believe that makes the PRC more malevolent or oppressive than the US. In fact, China is naturally going to be a bigger influence economic superpower than the US. It's inevitable.
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Re: Will There Be War?

Postby Bao on Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:04 pm

Steve James wrote:Jmo, but I agree that Xi has nothing to gain from attacking Taiwan militarily.


Exactly.

. Sure, we could nuke China. But, how would the rest of the world react? Does anyone think that any country will support the US against China in that region?


China would nuke back. In have no doubt about that. Why did China develop nuclear weapons in the first case? Only because the US threat China to nuke Beijing and Shanghai. Not just once, but repeated threats.

Frankly, though there may be human rights abuses in the PRC, I don't believe that makes the PRC more malevolent or oppressive than the US.


All countries have problems with human rights, just more or less. Well, at least China doesn't create troubles and war all over the world killing millions of civilians just to sell weapons. IMO, there's no bigger terrorist country than the USA.
Last edited by Bao on Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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