Russia Ukraine Situation

[vadaga]

Good talk with John Mearshimer viz. leading Ukraine to take a hardline against Russia will lead to a bad result- seems this is what is happening.

I also like Stephen Walt and some other of the neorealists.

I think that George Kennan also made some comments on NATO expansion back in 1997 to the effect that

'something of the highest importance is at stake here. And perhaps it is not too late to advance a view that, I believe, is not only mine alone but is shared by a number of others with extensive and in most instances more recent experience in Russian matters. The view, bluntly stated, is that expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold-war era.'

https://www.nytimes.com/1997/02/05/opinion/a-fateful-error.html

[cloudz]

Personally, I hate being political here on this board.

My feelings are very mixed. And they have been for a long time. The media generalises the issue and is only reporting a fraction of what is behind this shit. Now both sides are only dealing with propaganda and a lot of lies.

So we need to try to see the issue from all sides, and listen to Europe's, The USA, Russia and Ukraine's own stories.

Fact is that all of these regions and countries share responsibility for the situation right now.

Just take a look at it from Russia's point of view...

- Nato decided already in Warsaw 2016 to move military close to the Russian borders.
- Ukraine has had a civil war just in front of Russia's borders.
- Ukraine has a US backed Nazi regime committing a cultural genocide against Russian minorities.
- Ukraine has not respected the Minsk treaty.

These are just facts, easy for anyone to confirm. But of course, there's a lot more to this story, from both sides. Ukraine has dealt with its own crisis, a civil war and has had eight years of violence and instability. They certainly don't want any further or greater war. Why the USA keeps pushing and pushing and tries to bring Russia into a corner is certainly understandable from their own point of view.

Will it escalate to a full blown war? No, I don't think so. At least if Nato and USA don't want it to escalate the crisis further.

I'm not a fan either of getting political but I had to comment..
Dude, Russia's story ?

This is about Putins crazy bullshit as far as I can see.

It's a fact that Ukraine has a Nazi regime (really!!) - is that the one led by a Jew?
If you have no ideas of aggression and empire building why would your neighbours having an alliance against aggression bother you ?

Most countries have some hard right wing elements, however isn't this a simple case of the pot calling the kettle black.
Looking for Justifications and reasons is probably natural, but it's a fine line to apologetics and justifications for actions that are completely unjustifiable.

This is not an act of self defence!

[cloudz]

Having served in the US military in Germany part of the NATO force in the 70s,
Never quiet understood why NATO is still there after the WARsaw pact was disbanded.

Just take a look at it from Russia's point of view...

- Nato decided already in Warsaw 2016 to move military close to the Russian borders.
- Ukraine has had a civil war just in front of Russia's borders.
- Ukraine has a US backed Nazi regime committing a cultural genocide against Russian minorities.
- Ukraine has not respected the Minsk treaty.

Russia is protecting its territorial integrity, no choice in it’s reaction.

Isn't the current aggression the obvious answer of why Nato has grown.
He's been building up a war machine whilst we have been sleeping at the wheel de militarising

I can understand protecting your borders, but how exactly is it threatened to justify this, with China as your best mate, these guys are next to untouchable..

[cloudz]

I think it's worth mentioning the lack of support for this in Russia itself.
If the people and the nation are not feeling its justified - which looks like the majority - then that should tell you a lot.
Even the propaganda machine can't sell it at source and yet people from afar are throwing around justifications for Putins aggression.

I doubt this would be the case if the Russian people and as a nation genuinely felt threatened by NATO, Ukraine and its people.
It's all just one big load of madman bullshit.

A guy who denies his own people democracy and freedoms calling a democratic regime Nazi - it's laughable.

[Giles]

It's true that, back in the 1990s, Russia was given some clear oral promises that NATO wouldn't expand into the east. And that these promises were not kept to. That's part of the story, irrespective of whether Putin has gradually mutated into a full-on dictator, or not.

.

From your perspective why did Germany not reacted sooner and more decisively along with the other countries in the region aligned with NATO against Russia.

What should Russia have done with the expansion of NATO, an organization that claims "it" as it's foe

I have my own opinions and feelings about the whole story, I totally condemn the current Russian actions, but I don't want to get into other aspects of the debate. Neither the time (especially) nor the inclination. The main thing I wanted to say yesterday was about the claims of "genocide", and I've said it. Nothing else I want to say in this area right now.

[Bob]

Does anyone really believe that the Jews were and are safe in Russia?
(Putin's concern over the Nazis in the Ukraine - really?)

Probably a few of you might remember the late 1950s - 5 year old in kindergarten and the sound of alarms going off in the city - the warning of a nuclear attack from Russia - we all, naively, were required to all stand with our heads facing the blackboards in case the "bomb" was dropped near us - parents, building new homes, naively having a "bomb" shelter constructed in the basement with water & food in anticipation of a war with Russia - later these were converted to a fruit cellar where we stored canned goods and our canned seasonal vegetables LOL

But the most terrifying memory for a 5 year old was the TV news clip of Khrushchev pounding his shoe on the UN podium declaring, "WE WILL BURY YOU!" - naively believing that the Russians would invade and literally bury us alive like was done by the Nazis to the Jews during WwII.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKdo1xwVK7s

Nikita Khrushchev's shoe-banging incident occurred during the 902nd Plenary Meeting of the United Nations General Assembly held in New York in 1960. During the session on 12 October, Khrushchev pounded his shoe on his delegate-desk in protest at a speech by Philippine delegate Lorenzo Sumulong.



6th grade and the teachers come in crying informing us "youngsters" that President Kennedy had been assassinated and we had to leave school early in anticipation of a possible WwIII attack.

The Ukrainian Orthodox church in sight of the Russian Orthodox Church cattycorner to the Byzantine Catholic church in a small steel town outside of Pittsburgh (Monessen - Mon for the river that flows through it and essen for Essen Germany a "big sister" steel town.

https://orthodox-world.org/en/i/25220/U ... dox-Church
https://www.oca.org/parishes/oca-wp-monsjd

Ukrainian Club (US) - Monessen, PA
https://www.mapquest.com/us/pennsylvani ... ub-1892679

Russian Club (US) - Monessen, PA
http://carpatho-russian-almanacs.org/UR ... n-amer.php

A little touch of Europe in a small steel town USA

https://pittsburghorbit.com/tag/ethnic-social-clubs/

Not all Americans are devoid of European cultural roots and influence.

Interesting twists of the Life Journey and there is the Italian side Journey which is another story for a another time LOL

[cloudz]

Good talk with John Mearshimer viz. leading Ukraine to take a hardline against Russia will lead to a bad result- seems this is what is happening.

I also like Stephen Walt and some other of the neorealists.

I think that George Kennan also made some comments on NATO expansion back in 1997 to the effect that

'something of the highest importance is at stake here. And perhaps it is not too late to advance a view that, I believe, is not only mine alone but is shared by a number of others with extensive and in most instances more recent experience in Russian matters. The view, bluntly stated, is that expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold-war era.'

https://www.nytimes.com/1997/02/05/opinion/a-fateful-error.html

yea, let's live our lives pandering to all the crazy bullies in the world instead.
NATO is a pact that is simply about backing each other against aggression.

do you believe the outcome changes in any way how a super powered Imperialist ultimately behaves towards his neighbours, that Putin wouldn't simply find whatever justification he needed to carry out his ideological fantasy?

please.

[windwalker]

Isn't the current aggression the obvious answer of why Nato has grown.
He's been building up a war machine whilst we have been sleeping at the wheel de militarising

I can understand protecting your borders, but how exactly is it threatened to justify this,
with China as your best mate, these guys are next to untouchable..

Brings back many memories of Baumholder Germany, late 70s,, most of them about the cold...have been to the border back then
as part of an Infantry unit, part of NATO forces guarding the Fulda Gap

Cold, and more cold....

After the War-saw pact broke apart NATO should have been disbanded or kept to it's original members.

I would say they "the US" was warned about the expansion of NATO which it was never supposed to do and gave verbal reassurances that it would not do.
What is being played out now, the direct result of not understanding this.

Or maybe they "did or do", never thinking Russia would act on it...


The US would never allow China or Russia to do the same in it's sphere of influence,
when they do it's labeled as an expansion, viewed as a threat.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pq5EFDzhvYs

A debate that covers the why whats happening now...
The US Ret General, seems to have a rather myopic view point of the world.

The point is that they were "warned" what would happen and has happened...

Why is it the US still has military bases all over the world,
and yet doesn't understand the threat it poses to the rest of the world.

Why is the US pushing the NATO members instead of the NATO members pushing the US to act.

[Bao]

The main thing I wanted to say yesterday was about the claims of "genocide", and I've said it. Nothing else I want to say in this area right now.

I didn't say genocide. I said "cultural genocide" and oppression. Don't put words or meaning in other people's mouths that they haven't said. There are others here who are great in doing such things and happily misunderstand others. I don't believe you are one of them.

"Cultural genocide is the systematic destruction of traditions, values, language, and other elements that make one group of people distinct from another."

Russia has asked Ukraine for 8 years to respect the Minsk agreement, part of this is to leave the Russian people who lives in the south-east regions alone. Russia says that Ukraine has not lived up to the agreements.

Russia is protecting its territorial integrity, no choice in it’s reaction.

Isn't the current aggression the obvious answer of why Nato has grown.
He's been building up a war machine whilst we have been sleeping at the wheel de militarising.[/quote]

Have you been sleeping?

"Obama also has put the U.S. on course to spend around $1 trillion on upgrading its nuclear arsenal over the next three decades, critics say.
Everything about nuclear weapons is extreme: the implications of their use, the costs involved, and the strategic and political paradoxes they create."
https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/ ... 5805111544

Russia only has a fraction of the US weapons power and nuclear power.

Nato decided to move military close to Russian borders in 2016. It had nothing to do with Russia's advances.

Bolstering the security of NATO allies and partners, particularly states along Russia’s border. ... The decisions made at the 2016 Warsaw Summit to bolster NATO’s deterrence- and-defense posture, including deployment of armed battalions in Poland and the Baltic states on a rotational basis, are a step in the right direction.

https://www.cigionline.org/static/docum ... ent_R7.pdf

Even The Guardian in an article from 2014 agrees that Nato continues to push Ukraine towards war:

"After Crimeans voted overwhelmingly to join Russia, the bulk of the western media abandoned any hint of even-handed coverage. So Putin is now routinely compared to Hitler, while the role of the fascistic right on the streets and in the new Ukrainian regime has been airbrushed out of most reporting as Putinist propaganda.

So you don't hear much about the Ukrainian government's veneration of wartime Nazi collaborators and pogromists, or the arson attacks on the homes and offices of elected communist leaders, or the integration of the extreme Right Sector into the national guard, while the anti-semitism and white supremacism of the government's ultra-nationalists is assiduously played down, and false identifications of Russian special forces are relayed as fact.

The reality is that, after two decades of eastward Nato expansion, this crisis was triggered by the west's attempt to pull Ukraine decisively into its orbit and defence structure, via an explicitly anti-Moscow EU association agreement. Its rejection led to the Maidan protests and the installation of an anti-Russian administration – rejected by half the country – that went on to sign the EU and International Monetary Fund agreements regardless."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... v-conflict

Now we see the results of decades of Nato's actions, the US meddling and EU anti-Russian forces. They got Ukraine into another war which they have pushed for. Sure, you can say that Putin was the one who attacked first. But c'mon, had it happened if Nato and the USA had left Ukraine alone? When Biden and the Nato people express concerns for Ukraine and it's people, I can't do anything else than just laughing. But it's a sad laugh that gets stuck in my throat. It's possibly the most hypocritical thing I've ever heard in my whole life.

[Bao]

Good recent videos:

SHORT: Russian Operations Begin in Ukraine - What Led to this Moment? (2 minutes)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJbSJqZoTIg

The EU Does Not Help Ukraine, So We Force Them To Buy Overpriced LNG! (11 minutes)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSAqH-JKZ6A

[Bob]

Do you think that the European and EU countries in that area have a right to form an alliance and aggregate their nuclear stockpiles in order to safeguard and serve as a countervailing power against the the Russian nuclear arsenal that sits on or close to their border irrespective of NATO?

Or, does Europe and EU countries not experience Russia as a threat?

"The US would never allow China or Russia to do the same in it's sphere of influence,
when they do it's labeled as an expansion, viewed as a threat."

Replace US with Europe and the EU in the above quote.

The question of whether the United States should be involved in such an European alliance is another topic for discussion.

BTW, I don't have an answer to the issues these questions raise so I am not trying to simply be argumentative but rather see this situations as extremely complex without identifying a causative agent as such.

[windwalker]

Do you think that the European and EU countries in that area have a right to form an alliance and aggregate their nuclear stockpiles in order to safeguard and serve as a countervailing power against the the Russian nuclear arsenal that sits on or close to their border irrespective of NATO?

Or, does Europe and EU countries not experience Russia as a threat?

The question of whether the United States should be involved in such an European alliance is another topic for discussion.

Which country is pushing the others, which country is arming the Ukraining"s.

Germany gave them helmets

The US provided them with high tech antitank missile's

The US is inexorably involved in NATO

[windwalker]

"The US would never allow China or Russia to do the same in it's sphere of influence,
when they do it's labeled as an expansion, viewed as a threat."

Replace US with Europe and the EU in the above quote.

No need

Use Russia instead

[Bob]

Do you think that the European and EU countries in that area have a right to form an alliance and aggregate their nuclear stockpiles in order to safeguard and

Which country is pushing the others, which country is arming the Ukraining"s.

Germany gave them helmets

The US provided them with high tech antitank missile's

The US is inexorably involved in NATO

While I understand what you are saying, that's not the point of the issues I raise.

I am curious as to how the EU and Europe generally feel about being in close proximity to Russia and what their rights are for security without referencing what the United States has done or not done. (I saw an aired piece from Finland about maybe considering becoming a member of NATO after seeing what has happened in the Ukraine)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQ-jNw-ZcZc

Finland has found itself to be at a crossroads. They need to decide whether
they should join NATO and protect their borders from possible Russian
invasion or obey Russia in her intentions to limit expansion of this military
alliance throughout Europe.

If Finland decides on joining NATO, Russia will have an adequate response,
and the world might be at the doorsteps of World War III.



Do you think that the West is overly paranoid about Russia and its sphere of influence?

Just a passing note on the John Mearshimer lecture, I really appreciate his in-depth analysis of the situation but he most readily admits that this is a minority (academic minority) viewpoint and I wonder what the counters are to his arguments (I am too lazy to do the search LOL).

[windwalker]

It would seem by the actions of Germany and other European countries that question has already been answered.

The US seems to be the main instigator in these actions.
Russia is feeling "very" threatened.

I would imagine if it was not a nuclear power things would be very different.
Being a nuclear power with a credible military force, it's a very different situation.

Do you think that the West is overly paranoid about Russia and its sphere of influence?

What country has the most military bases overseas, that views all other attempts by any other country as expansionist and a threat when they attempt to do the same thing ?

In the video clip it list NATO as a military alliance. mmm, would that be against the same country that they buy their oil and other energy products from ?

Interesting clip

Unresolved issues from the past, starting to be resolved in the present
Non nuclear capable countries, caught in the middle.